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Is spread betting for fools?

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12 minutes ago, nit2wynit said:

@Caseynotes what time frame would you recommend for the breakout?

I personally favour the M5 for the Ftse because ftse is not so erratic as the dow or dax and so that gives you a bit more time to assess but I would still wait for some kind of pullback test .

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5 minutes is going in at the deep end don't you think?  No wonder so many people lose so much money so quickly.  This really isn't a viable/reliable way to make money is it?

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21 minutes ago, dmedin said:

5 minutes is going in at the deep end don't you think?  No wonder so many people lose so much money so quickly.  This really isn't a viable/reliable way to make money is it?

 🙂 I thought that chart didn't look too bad actually, there was a nice push up to a new higher high (A) then a 50% retracement (B) and bounce off the MA and continuation onward with an entry around the red line and a stop loss less than 10 tick, price turned back at the new high and retested the entry level before continuing but that often happens.

image.png.0595343c340b50d6ab45eb2fa44d85a2.png

 

 

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@nit2wynit

Is that red line your purchase price on the top graph?

from looking at the Macd below it, how i worked it would be to try and trade a BUY position after those 2 lowest red bars once the volume started to drop off indicating a move in price up, then try and close that position once the Green volume bars started to slip away, trying to maximise my entry and exit points. But becareful as sometimes when the volume looks to be moving the opposite way, it was still swing in a second and fall away. Sometimes you can see the bottom and top prices as it swings from them over an hour, going up and down maybe a 3-6 gap, again possible to get in and out at those marks, but its all risky.

Im not a fan of bolenger bands, i would also have the parabolic SAR indicator running, it seems to have always given me good advice on the trend of movement, just some times i didnt listen to it.

If your only go to trade for 2 hours, make it the 1st 2 hours of the open market, some times an hour after it opens markets can stay flat all day until that last hour of trade where it can get busy again, but beware trading in the last hour, 5-10mins out from close, can be quite volitile.

Also if u want to break up your day, work out when the US or the Aussie markets open and watch them for their 1st hours trade, never trade japan, china, or asian markets, they move so fast its not funny and huge number jumps in seconds, i have had success a few times, by pure fluke, would never go back, lol.

 

 

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I think I'm just too stupid.  Just lost money off the recent spike after 13:15, everything came back > 50%. I'm just losing money all around the board.  Being eaten alive.  Time for me to get out I think....

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6 minutes ago, dmedin said:

I think I'm just too stupid.  Just lost money off the recent spike after 13:15, everything came back > 50%. I'm just losing money all around the board.  Being eaten alive.  Time for me to get out I think....

You need to show a chart, I not sure what market or time frame you are looking at. The ftse M5 shows what you say but before the big red candle there was nothing to indicate the pullback had ended. The actual candles are the last word, red must reverse blue and visa-versa, each candle tells you who's in charge, a pullback isn't over til the other side take control.

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For me, trading in five minute charts just doesn't work.  It's just noise; cannot make sense of anything until AFTER it has happened.

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Look at the daily chart with Fibonaccis drawn from 26951 high and 23554 low for DJIA. 

Look at the oscillator constantly dipping below 80, teetering; price drop beneath 50 MA; high volume on downside, then the turning up again on high volume.

djia.thumb.jpg.e1de7afb3889d27f25a8beff26e6bff6.jpg

How can this not be more meaningful than massive swings up and down on small time frames?  I despair ... this is obviously not for me. 

No wonder 80% of punters lose all their cash.  This is a mug's game!

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6 minutes ago, dmedin said:

For me, trading in five minute charts just doesn't work.  It's just noise; cannot make sense of anything until AFTER it has happened.

If I were to show a chart with no time frame label or price reference you would not be able to guess what time frame it was, the same structure patterns are played out over and over on all time frames. Larger time frames just give you more time to make decisions.

Very few strategies are genuinely single time frame only, most will work if they are applied to appropriate chart structure and if the rules are adhered to. Reading the thread I'm not convinced that any strategy is being applied, especially strict entry and exit rules, it all sounds very much edge of seat reactions, pull the trigger and hope.

Look at some of these simple strategies in the link below, see how they are written up, try a few out, make some changes. You must be able to define your own strategy in basic rules that can be applied over and over, that gives you something you can test over a number of trades to check it actually works before going live. Hard rules not reactions, if this > then that.

https://www.earnforex.com/forex-strategy/

 

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Brent oil seems to  have bottomed out, see below, with an outside candle forming but I would want to wait until tomorrow morning to confirm it.  Typically you get a 33 - 50% pullback, so my strategy would be to put a stop at about 5900 and go for 50% retracement.

I've got a strategy but not for 5 minute time frames.  I was under the impression that you are supposed to respond 'in real time' and use things like candlestick patterns (hammers, dojis) in order to give you signals to enter or exit.  I know about the strategy of waiting till there's a clear trend and then getting in when the price is above the MA, but that strategy is incredibly difficult to judge and only becomes obvious after it has happened.

Put it this way, if I have £2000 of savings and I want a better return than 2% from a savings account I can easily get a yearly return of 10% from occasional spread betting.  But I am not going to be able to day trade £2000 on a daily basis to earn enough to live off.  That is just insane. 

oil.jpg

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The parabolic SAR is mentioned as a 'strategy'.  Here is the PSAR in all its pristine glory (on daily charts it isn't much better).

psar.thumb.jpg.d868f7712e5d266c24cf5bbbfb628714.jpg

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The bottoming out and retracement of DJIA is clear as day - on the day chart (excuse the pun)

 

djia.jpg

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Wall Street on a five min chart.

Where would you even begin?  Totally untradeable ... for me ...

 

djia.jpg

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Looks better on the hourly with a decisive close above 50 MA and subsequently the 50 MA turning up but unless you were lucky enough to jump on at the right time how would you trade this?

djia.thumb.jpg.e191e2d36873d3746deebbe922e7390d.jpg

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Wait for a 33 - 50% pullback of gold before buying again?

geld.thumb.jpg.968f68bafc69c0cf8baa8ca2a2cb5a9d.jpg

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@dmedin,

Why don't you try a longer term strategy and see if that works better for you. It will certainly be easier for you and give you plenty of time to think about things and make decisions if necessary.

Not every one is suited to day trading or even trading using 5 min charts. If it is not for you then then there is nothing wrong in that. Maybe you need to look at different timeframes? I mainly use the 'daily' and trade longer trends. My positions can last days, weeks or even months depending on the strength of the trend and the asset involved. What if you could make more profits over a longer period which would either equate to or be greater than the amount you would have made if you were day trading the same asset? Why don't you try this on the demo and see what your results are? Does it matter if you do not make a daily income but make a weekly or monthly income?

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Haha brilliant, a DOS attack on the thread, I see you managed to spot a V reversal on the daily chart, well done, you are aware they only come round about every 3 months or so but if that's your strategy you go for it. 

You are correct in noticing there was an extended battle on the US open (as there was yesterday) and that you just stay out of conflict and wait for direction to be agreed, well done again, see you are learning. But not about having a set of rules though, the actual indicator used is irrelevant, every one of them is used by someone, it's the rules you devise to use them with that makes them work or not.

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On the 5 min chart I see no agreement.  Just up and down, up and down, up and down - might as well jump off a cliff.  The daily charts are difficult enough.

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@Caseynotes since chatting with you opened up a demo spread bet account.

Done three trades so just getting to know it.

The thing that concerns me is the overnight carrying charges as the process I would want to play is swing.

Not too hot working on a day trade scenario.

Cannot see definitive charges. 

Made small loss on Dax of  £4. DOW £425 profit on the bounce (closed at the 200dma.- and currently £20 down on ITV as fancied seeing how the share plays work.

Too be accurate only traded the Dax for a day and the Dow.

More interested in the indices and commodities as from my meagre knowledge this looks a better vehicle for SB.

All help much appreciated.

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Posted (edited)

*shrug*

If anybody can show me graphs of them going through the process rather than after it's been completed, maybe I will be able to understand. 

My mind is resisting and I cannot see it.  I don't know how anyone has been able to trade the recent volatility.

Not just me though, I'm one of the 80% ....

Edited by dmedin

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Right peeps I reached my daily limit for posting.  Who knew.

Yesterday shook me to the core.  Over it.  However, back to the Demo to Prove my Strategy.  The data below will look like a terrible day, but on the contrary it went well;  it's mostly deliberate (apart from the noted Real Losses.  Everything else is simply proving where I went wrong and letting it completely fail.  However, If I remove the Playstation mistakes and the aggressive moves where i wasn't paying enough attention and put all my losing trades down as -£15 only, (coz this is where'd I'd get out)  then it's around £200.  Quick estimate.

We'll see I guess.

This is all using a 2k account.  Maximum ppp @£5 creating a margin of approx £1800.  Stop loss of around 5pts (but I used 10 to give me more of an idea of the range I could play with)  
 

It's fast, exciting and terrifying.  It's elating and downright disappointing too.  But when you're reading the charts right, and getting in and out in 2 or 3 points, it's worth it watching them add up.

retest.thumb.jpg.dfa86b73cc893f78d9e8fc8db79c376a.jpg

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This is what I see of today's trade on DJIA.  Can you spot any 'trends'?

djia.thumb.jpg.42ecd508ddfedcaf593f6c58bc138654.jpg

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@dmedin, I often use a tighter chart view to create more obvious Peaks and Troughs.  Helps identify.

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7 minutes ago, dmedin said:

This is what I see of today's trade on DJIA.  Can you spot any 'trends'?

image.thumb.png.3a8d5d82f071ac0ee0568c570e755953.png

image.thumb.png.3310512f48fe15e11c7e4b3345c629c5.png

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3 hours ago, dmedin said:

The parabolic SAR is mentioned as a 'strategy'.  Here is the PSAR in all its pristine glory (on daily charts it isn't much better).

psar.thumb.jpg.d868f7712e5d266c24cf5bbbfb628714.jpg

I use it in conjunction with my Macd not as a strategy on its own, but if u tweaked its figures to kick in a couple bars earlier, no reason why it wouldnt be a solid strategy, even just to buy up trends on that graph it would have made some dollars.

 
Whats wrong with it? Green dots indicate upward trends, red dots indicate downward trends, theres a couple of nice waves in there to catch.

 

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@dmedin finding the right indicators that you feel comfortable with can help a lot in spotting the trends.

personally just having a volume added to the chart like u have doesnt tell me much at a quick glance, but if i look at my chart below, instantly the Macd's volume strengths show up/down trends, which match the data on the top chart. you have to make the indicators work in your favour, a bunch of coloured lines that u need to think about and interpret compared to instant glance, can only speed up your decision making time.

The SAR dots work well picking up the trend change before the Macd crosses over to confirm the trade.

Horses for Courses. its just my opinion mate.

 

 

image.thumb.png.95498c2be7575ac7d23a3a7473096405.png

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@dmedin,

I can see why you are struggling. If you do not know something or do not understand something then no amount of examples after the event or explanations will assist unless you can see how you would have made a certain trading decision at the time (real time).

I think the most useful assistance to you would be actually seeing a live trade. You are more than welcome to look at the beginning of my posts 'Potential Long Gold Trade' and 'Potential Shorting Opportunity - US500' posts and see how I executed those trades in real time which I shared live with the IG Community. Please remember they were just simple and basic trades that I wanted to share live with the IG Community so I kept it simple deliberately as I knew the audience I was targeting.

My 'Long' Gold and Silver trades ended in a profit and my 'Short' S&P 500 ended in a loss. Yes there were errors where I could have exited earlier on the S&P500 'Short' trade but I think I entered the trade too late anyway. It is all about timing. Anyway the success or failure of the trade was not important on this occasion to me. It was all about sharing a real live trade with the IG Community and that was the important part. Hindsight is a wonderful thing and sharing after the event does not seem to be assisting you too much from what I can see in this thread and your comments. 

Why don't you pick an asset of you choice that you think would offer you the best trading opportunity and see if anyone can talk you through a live trade and your entry and exit points. You must ensure your trading plan is both realistic and achievable as otherwise your trading strategy and trading system could end up being skewed. 

 

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8 hours ago, Bell said:

@Caseynotes since chatting with you opened up a demo spread bet account.

Done three trades so just getting to know it.

The thing that concerns me is the overnight carrying charges as the process I would want to play is swing.

Not too hot working on a day trade scenario.

Cannot see definitive charges. 

Made small loss on Dax of  £4. DOW £425 profit on the bounce (closed at the 200dma.- and currently £20 down on ITV as fancied seeing how the share plays work.

Too be accurate only traded the Dax for a day and the Dow.

More interested in the indices and commodities as from my meagre knowledge this looks a better vehicle for SB.

All help much appreciated.

@Bell, no problem, regarding overnight funding see this page linked below, not sure if IG have added other assets to the list but worth a read anyway. 

It's always worth playing about on the demo seeing how the platform works, trying new stuff, new markets, strategies, time frames etc, a lot to be learned.

 

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7 hours ago, davidbrister said:

 finding the right indicators that you feel comfortable with can help a lot in spotting the trends.

@davidbrister  is correct, many indicators are very similar in their calcs and so strategies using them often come out very much the same, a macd crossover, an ma crossover and psar are all closely related. When to actually apply it is often the problem, @dmedin is right to wonder the virtues of all of it but the key is recognizing chart structure before applying anything. Markets are not trending most of the time so randomly applying a trend following strategy won't work. Whenever I see consolidation I just block it off with a rectangle and wait for price to pop out either end, that's generally where new trends start no matter what the time frame.

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