Jump to content

They think it's all over..


786Trader

Recommended Posts

Some in the markets (indices) think, it would appear,  that Corona is all over bar the counting and the markets will soon get back to melting up. This is perhaps, premature.  Slowing of virus numbers suggests  that isolation is having an effect, not that Corvid  is defeated, cured or controlled. The first peak is flattening out. Governments are hoping for herd immunity, which so far has not  achieved the saturation levels required to become successful at curbing the spread of the virus. There has been sufficiently inadequate testing in most countries to be able to accurately project future trends with any certainty.  To infer, therefore that Covid 19 is in retreat is optimistic and probably inaccurate. Which has not curtailed the risk taking currently prevalent in most markets, some backed by inferred government guarantee. (Tax payer funded)

Now we take into account the costs. Which are also by no means over despite the considerable intervention from governments.  The costs to demand, to cash flow, to confidence, to employment, to travel, leisure and commodities (mostly energy) among others. These are by no means paid for, even with government largesse,(the unlimited debt/ free money tree **** forest). The assumption that Covid will not return post resumption of normal economic activity is an assumption worth vigorously challenging.  China has not achieved herd immunity, no country has yet. Until that happens, or a viable cure found (not chloroquine for example) economies and nations will be vulnerable, are still vulnerable. Social distancing will continue, meaning normal economic life will continue to be affected.  Return to normal will take longer than we hope.  Hence my surprise at the level the markets have risen by. The Dow being a prominent example. Point being; values are heading to over value already and  the Q2 and Q3 numbers are going to make sobering reading. Not to mention employment /unemployment.  This is not going to magically go away. We are closer to understanding and digesting the problems faced and doing something to solve them. But it's not all over. It's not even half time.

Bare in mind Corona is a virus. The common cold is a Corona virus. We are yet to find a cure for the common cold. Where there is a will there is a way, but that requires concerted global policy and  effort in a time when nations and politicians are too busy thinking about themselves (as is the trend). I will refrain from commenting too much about president Trump's response to this crisis as I would give him considerably less than the 10/10 he believes his performance and response merits.  Performance yes, a reality star performs, a president governs. Forgive the comment , he has provoked my ire since Feb on this. It will pass.

The markets have moved too soon.  Yes there are seeming bargains out there. Not many. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
13 minutes ago, 786Trader said:

Hence my surprise at the level the markets have risen by.

 

But you know well enough never to be surprised by what the 'market' does.

Remember that it's a club for rich people.  It is not designed for little people to participate in (except through pension funds etc, which are really just a way of ripping workers off by making them gamble their savings away in the hopes of making money for when they retire and the state doesn't care about them any more).

It is manipulated to high hell, and never works like you expect it to.

Your role is to be one of the slaves.  As is mine.  As is 99% of the world's population.

The odds are, shall we say, 'heavily against us'.  :D

Edited by dmedin
Link to comment
4 minutes ago, dmedin said:

 

But you know well enough never to be surprised by what the 'market' does.

Remember that it's a club for rich people.  It is not designed for little people to participate in (except through pension funds etc, which are really just a way of ripping workers off by making them gamble their savings away in the hopes of making money for when they retire and the state doesn't care about them any more).

It is manipulated to high hell, and never works like you expect it to.

Your role is to be one of the slaves.  As is mine.  As is 99% of the world's population.

The odds are, shall we say, 'heavily against us'.  :D

Once more we find ourselves in accord, in principle. This melt up is being sponsored in America through the Fed and Mnuchkin at Trump's urgent request (election nearing perhaps?). Instead of sponsoring those that need it, they sponsor those that don't.

I am not a slave though so refute that. 

  • Great! 1
Link to comment

Nasdaq 100 same level as back in year end 2019

When this "flue" is over we will build a mother of all bubble with all the stimulus the centralbanksters are throwing at the stockmarket

And we will travel and consume like never before

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NASDAQ-Quarterly.png

  • Great! 1
Link to comment
  • 2 weeks later...

I was somewhat horrified that UK's debt to GDP ratio was 49.4% in 2008 and even after the austerity endured (during which the NHS was decimated), is now 85.4% in 2019!  Was there a point to austerity?  I shudder to think what the ratio is going to be for 2020.  If the NHS would not have been decimated by austerity, wouldn't the ratio for 2020 be better than it will now be (not to mention our preparedness for a pandemic)?  Solving this problem in the same way as 08 is just going to justifiably increase social unrest.

Link to comment
33 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

where do you guys get this stuff from?

I'm surprised you can't look this up yourself https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/tgm/refreshTableAction.do?tab=table&plugin=1&pcode=teina225&language=en

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_government_austerity_programme

 

33 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

as for the nhs, graph below of the health and social care budget 2008 to 2020 shows a steady increase so nope, no decimation there. 

Tell that to the front line workers who have died because of lack of PPE and their surviving family members who have to pick up the pieces.  They deserve far more than just a 5 minute clap every week especially considering some are being denied death benefits.  Furthermore, an increase in the budget does not translate to an increase in efficacy.  Nurses and health visitors, excluding nurses in GP practices, stood at 284,000 FTE, a decrease of 0.2 per cent (435) since 2016. https://digital.nhs.uk/news-and-events/latest-news/statistics-show-change-in-nhs-workforce-over-time .  And all this time, the population has gone up (up 0.6% from mid-2016).

Edited by psycho
Link to comment

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • General Statistics

    • Total Topics
      17,279
    • Total Posts
      81,349
    • Total Members
      65,887
    • Most Online
      7,522
      10/06/21 10:53

    Newest Member
    40dollarshoes
    Joined 24/01/22 17:02
  • Posts

    • I'll tell you one thing, I wish I'd learnt how to short a market right now! I assume this movement is somewhat to do with whats happening with Ukraine/Russia. It's crashed through multiple 50% levels so is there a point where you say this method no longer works for the conditions at play. For example you can draw 50% levels to your heart's content extending back in time on daily chart swings. If you see enough movement above the level you may decide to trade at least it would somewhat limit the number of trades you were making. Movement of the market back to the high at least if we believe in what has happened historically is a case of when and not if. What is dangerous in my eyes is moves downward that last a long time, like 2008 where it went on for months. If it's relatively quick down and back it's easier to weather e.g. 2020 crash. I am assuming that we are not on a longer term decline but I haven't polished my crystal ball yet this year so not sure
    • Market data to trade on Tuesday: DAX; MSFT IGTV’s Daniela Sabin Hathorn looks at a chart of the DAX ahead of the latest IFO business climate data out in Germany as the equities selloff continues into the new week. On the corporate calendar, Microsoft (MSFT) will be looking to impress investors with its Q4 earnings after a rather disappointing start to the US earnings season. https://www.ig.com/uk/market-insight-articles/market-data-to-trade-on-tuesday--dax--msft-220124
    • Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Technical Outlook Goes from Bad to Worse Jan 24, 2022 |  Paul Robinson, Strategist. DailyFX BTC/USD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK: Major level (39558) was broken on Friday Selling has next significant area of support in focus ETH/USD next support level at 1700   A couple of weeks back when BTC/USD was trying to hold confluent support via a horizontal shelf and trend-line I said, “as long as a close below 39558 doesn’t develop then the outlook is at worst neutral, but likely bullish.” The reversal on Jan 10 offered would-be longs a decent risk/reward opportunity to buy at support, but as of Friday that idea was stopped out in favor of a major support break. Momentum since that break into today has been fierce. The breakdown has the next big level of support in focus, and while it could certainly provide a floor for a big bounce, the macro outlook is breaking down as the broad uptrend comes into question. The deep retracement off the highs will soon have the June 2021 swing-low at 28600 in play. In the context of a strong trend, testing and even worse, breaking, a prior swing low is a major red flag. A good uptrend consists of higher-highs and higher-lows. If the 28600 area holds, then BTC could rally strongly higher and be in the process of creating a broad range dating back to the early part of 2021. But if support breaks, then BTC may be sufficiently damaged that it will be difficult to recover from. Yes a big bounce could still get underway, but that is all it will be viewed as – a bounce. The bottom line at that point, from a technical perspective, is that BTC/USD may go through an extended bear market lasting quite some time. For now, will monitor momentum as support arrives from around 30066 down to 28600. A volatile reversal from that area could at least provide an opportunity for short-term traders looking to play an oversold bounce.   BTC/USD DAILY CHART BTC/USD Chart by TradingView ETH/USD I selling off even harder, having lost a third of its value in about a week. The selling looks set to continue until support via three lows created from May to July, all right around the 1700 mark. Like BTC/USD, watch for a volatile reversal to kick off an oversold bounce. ETH/USD DAILY CHART ETH/USD Chart by TradingView Resources for Forex Traders Whether you are a new or experienced trader, we have several resources available to help you; indicator for tracking trader sentiment, quarterly trading forecasts, analytical and educational webinars held daily, trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and one specifically for those who are new to forex.  
×
×
  • Create New...