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They think it's all over..


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Some in the markets (indices) think, it would appear,  that Corona is all over bar the counting and the markets will soon get back to melting up. This is perhaps, premature.  Slowing of virus numbers suggests  that isolation is having an effect, not that Corvid  is defeated, cured or controlled. The first peak is flattening out. Governments are hoping for herd immunity, which so far has not  achieved the saturation levels required to become successful at curbing the spread of the virus. There has been sufficiently inadequate testing in most countries to be able to accurately project future trends with any certainty.  To infer, therefore that Covid 19 is in retreat is optimistic and probably inaccurate. Which has not curtailed the risk taking currently prevalent in most markets, some backed by inferred government guarantee. (Tax payer funded)

Now we take into account the costs. Which are also by no means over despite the considerable intervention from governments.  The costs to demand, to cash flow, to confidence, to employment, to travel, leisure and commodities (mostly energy) among others. These are by no means paid for, even with government largesse,(the unlimited debt/ free money tree **** forest). The assumption that Covid will not return post resumption of normal economic activity is an assumption worth vigorously challenging.  China has not achieved herd immunity, no country has yet. Until that happens, or a viable cure found (not chloroquine for example) economies and nations will be vulnerable, are still vulnerable. Social distancing will continue, meaning normal economic life will continue to be affected.  Return to normal will take longer than we hope.  Hence my surprise at the level the markets have risen by. The Dow being a prominent example. Point being; values are heading to over value already and  the Q2 and Q3 numbers are going to make sobering reading. Not to mention employment /unemployment.  This is not going to magically go away. We are closer to understanding and digesting the problems faced and doing something to solve them. But it's not all over. It's not even half time.

Bare in mind Corona is a virus. The common cold is a Corona virus. We are yet to find a cure for the common cold. Where there is a will there is a way, but that requires concerted global policy and  effort in a time when nations and politicians are too busy thinking about themselves (as is the trend). I will refrain from commenting too much about president Trump's response to this crisis as I would give him considerably less than the 10/10 he believes his performance and response merits.  Performance yes, a reality star performs, a president governs. Forgive the comment , he has provoked my ire since Feb on this. It will pass.

The markets have moved too soon.  Yes there are seeming bargains out there. Not many. 

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13 minutes ago, 786Trader said:

Hence my surprise at the level the markets have risen by.

 

But you know well enough never to be surprised by what the 'market' does.

Remember that it's a club for rich people.  It is not designed for little people to participate in (except through pension funds etc, which are really just a way of ripping workers off by making them gamble their savings away in the hopes of making money for when they retire and the state doesn't care about them any more).

It is manipulated to high hell, and never works like you expect it to.

Your role is to be one of the slaves.  As is mine.  As is 99% of the world's population.

The odds are, shall we say, 'heavily against us'.  :D

Edited by dmedin
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4 minutes ago, dmedin said:

 

But you know well enough never to be surprised by what the 'market' does.

Remember that it's a club for rich people.  It is not designed for little people to participate in (except through pension funds etc, which are really just a way of ripping workers off by making them gamble their savings away in the hopes of making money for when they retire and the state doesn't care about them any more).

It is manipulated to high hell, and never works like you expect it to.

Your role is to be one of the slaves.  As is mine.  As is 99% of the world's population.

The odds are, shall we say, 'heavily against us'.  :D

Once more we find ourselves in accord, in principle. This melt up is being sponsored in America through the Fed and Mnuchkin at Trump's urgent request (election nearing perhaps?). Instead of sponsoring those that need it, they sponsor those that don't.

I am not a slave though so refute that. 

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Nasdaq 100 same level as back in year end 2019

When this "flue" is over we will build a mother of all bubble with all the stimulus the centralbanksters are throwing at the stockmarket

And we will travel and consume like never before

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NASDAQ-Quarterly.png

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  • 2 weeks later...

I was somewhat horrified that UK's debt to GDP ratio was 49.4% in 2008 and even after the austerity endured (during which the NHS was decimated), is now 85.4% in 2019!  Was there a point to austerity?  I shudder to think what the ratio is going to be for 2020.  If the NHS would not have been decimated by austerity, wouldn't the ratio for 2020 be better than it will now be (not to mention our preparedness for a pandemic)?  Solving this problem in the same way as 08 is just going to justifiably increase social unrest.

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6 minutes ago, psycho said:

I was somewhat horrified that UK's debt to GDP ratio was 49.4% in 2008 and even after the austerity endured (during which the NHS was decimated), is now 85.4% in 2019!  Was there a point to austerity?  I shudder to think what the ratio is going to be for 2020.  If the NHS would not have been decimated by austerity, wouldn't the ratio for 2020 be better than it will now be (not to mention our preparedness for a pandemic)?  Solving this problem in the same way as 08 is just going to justifiably increase social unrest.

where do you guys get this stuff from? what kind of austerity takes debt from 49% to GDP in 2008 to 85% in 2019?, the perpetual increase in debt ratio is clearly not austerity.

and as for the nhs, graph below of the health and social care budget 2008 to 2020 shows a steady increase so nope, no decimation there. 

image.png.87b91d81871609c2502a5dfe7ca2421f.png

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33 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

where do you guys get this stuff from?

I'm surprised you can't look this up yourself https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/tgm/refreshTableAction.do?tab=table&plugin=1&pcode=teina225&language=en

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_government_austerity_programme

 

33 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

as for the nhs, graph below of the health and social care budget 2008 to 2020 shows a steady increase so nope, no decimation there. 

Tell that to the front line workers who have died because of lack of PPE and their surviving family members who have to pick up the pieces.  They deserve far more than just a 5 minute clap every week especially considering some are being denied death benefits.  Furthermore, an increase in the budget does not translate to an increase in efficacy.  Nurses and health visitors, excluding nurses in GP practices, stood at 284,000 FTE, a decrease of 0.2 per cent (435) since 2016. https://digital.nhs.uk/news-and-events/latest-news/statistics-show-change-in-nhs-workforce-over-time .  And all this time, the population has gone up (up 0.6% from mid-2016).

Edited by psycho
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12 minutes ago, psycho said:

I'm surprised you can't look this up yourself https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/tgm/refreshTableAction.do?tab=table&plugin=1&pcode=teina225&language=en

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_government_austerity_programme

 

Tell that to the front line workers who have died because of lack of PPE and their surviving family members who have to pick up the pieces.  They deserve far more than just a 5 minute clap every week especially considering some are being denied death benefits.  Furthermore, an increase in the budget does not translate to an increase in efficacy.  Nurses and health visitors, excluding nurses in GP practices, stood at 284,000 FTE, a decrease of 0.2 per cent (435) since 2016. https://digital.nhs.uk/news-and-events/latest-news/statistics-show-change-in-nhs-workforce-over-time .  And all this time, the population has gone up (up 0.6% from mid-2016).

perpetually increasing debt is the opposite of the definition of austerity.

The nhs budget has increased every year as per the graph which is the opposite of decimation.

As for the question of PPE I think you should be asking the 14,000 procurement officers who work for the nhs what they spend £150 billion on every year.

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