Caseynotes

yes, amusingly enough it turns out it's the same as watching the tails of a H1 chart, who could have guessed?

Not really that divergent, both were held up by support at the daily pivot, Dow more so and required extra effort on the part of the bears to push through which carried them a bit further.

Dow checking the daily pivot now, so far very tame, not really expecting any fireworks today, the market is a bit jittery and it being a Friday 'n all. M15 charts;

Hi, there might be an interest charge if you hold a daily funded bet overnight though also you might receive a payment, there is no charge on Futures or Forwards contracts. There is no interest paid on funds in your trading account. see; https://www.ig.com/uk/help-and-support/spread-betting-and-cfds/fees-and-charges/why-is-overnight-funding-charged-and-how-is-it-calculated-

good grief, it's like watching Stevie Wonder in a orienteering competition. There is a post from someone without any kind of a plan at all. I might have mentioned this before but without a plan you are adrift on a raft hoping to bump into land. Without a plan you are looking for everything and seeing nothing. With a plan you have focus, direction and a map to guide you. More about plans later, lets look at these useless tools you mention. First though consider the traps of technical analysis, it is a mistake to turn TA into a vanity project, more is not better, layering on TA causes confusion not clarity. Secondly it's a mistake to dress up TA and use it to add weight to your over riding bias, bias is like a blanket draped over your head, it makes you look ridiculous and you can see much clearer without it. Thirdly people expect too much from TA, TA is like a charade that is trying to point to possible futures based on recent history but most of the hand jiving is total nonsense, stick to first principles. So let's get Stevie to take a look at your chart, Stevie says look at those 3 near touches and rejection of the 50 MA. Price rejection at a line in the sand. That is as much as you can ask of TA and it's enough. What about the 2 bounces off the 60% Fib Stevie says, I personally think Fib draws too many lines but there it is. Stevie's asking why have you got these indicators and not even looking at them. The answer to that is that you're really waiting for the market to send you a postcard telling you where it's going be next week. In actual fact it is trying to do that, when the market is occupied in a two way auction price is basically standing still (time moves the chart sideways), once that auction process is over price MUST go either up or down but you can't know in advance when or which way, bias, opinions and predictions are pointless. Guessing won't cut it. Your job is recognise where the market is in the cycle and to wait and catch the breakout, or if you miss that then try to catch the first pullback of price on route to the next auction level. And you are never even going to be sure where might be but there should be some prime candidates based on previous price action (old support and resistance levels). So some multi time frame analysis and a few indicators to draw lines in the sand, great, now about that plan. I started the Trade Planning and Testing threat because I got so bored watching souls wandering lost in the desert, no map, no compass. To my surprise the ones who needed it most were the ones who couldn't be bothered reading it let alone do it so here is the concise version for the especially lazy. You need to build a simple rules based system that fits you and has a verifiable positive expectancy. Decide on your market, time frame, market conditions trending or a ranging, % of account risk per trade, and bolt on a risk/reward (stop loss amount/profit amount) of 1:2 R/R for testing purposes. Your system will need a basic premise eg 'dip buying in an uptrend'. You will need an indicator to signal entry and most importantly an indicator that filters out more losing trades than winning ones (think about that). You do not need to catch all the trades, or the best trades, or the longest running ones, in fact the more trades you don't take the better off you are likely to be. Eyeball backtest your simple strategy over 20 trades, you need a 'win rate %' vs 'risk/reward ratio' that plots above the red line on the graph to be profitable, for 1:2 R/R (2R), that's a win rate of 35% or higher. The above won't take you very long to do but you may need many attempts before finding a system that survives backtesting, but so what, it hasn't cost you any money, just time. After backtesting comes forward testing on demo and if it survives that then test on a live account with smallest position size your broker will allow. So get planning and good luck (though you won't need it if you have a good plan)

Yesterday key support confirmed for Dow at 28451 and now looking to test near term resistance at 28933. Ftse looking at Brexit today and wondering, S&P with Dow looking at near term resistance. Not much on the calendar today. The WHO reported the virus outbreak was a dire emergency but travel was fine, no restrictions necessary. US democrat senator and speaker of the House of Representatives Pelosi says Trump can't be acquitted of any crimes because he hasn't actually been charged with any, er, the impeachment trial continues.

Overnight Indices, USD and Oil up. Bonds and Gold down. Today EU GDP and CPI at 10am. US Chicago PMI at 2:45pm and Mitch consumer senti at 3pm.

yes, on the initial cannabis explosion there was very quick over production, turns out the stuff grows like ... er, well weed actually, who could have guessed it. So we watched the cannabis index rise and then fall over the second half of 2019. I don't think BAT are signalling even starting down that route are they?

Not much traction in either direction for Dax and Dow. Ftse bets on a rate cut scramble to get out. Dax and Dow M15. Ftse M5

oh dear, permabear Keith McCullough of Hedgeye is even blocking his own subscribers now should they dare to cast aspersions on his multi year repetitious recession calls 😂

by the way, a good follow on twitter for wheat, corn etc is fatfinger (see below).

was intrigued to see Carney speaking at 12:30 today but the BoE don't do a presser post rate decision so not sure what the speaking event is.

Not sure of direction this morning, price dropped below the pivot and continued down through S1 & S2 on both Dow and Dax which suggests a down day but so far both look to have found support on the London open, not sure it will last but looking at the daily charts and around these levels looks a good being the daily charts (post above) support level (orange) for dax, dow, ftse and S&P. M15 charts;

excellent, we could do with a new wheat thread you should start one up, and best of all I know nothing about the wheat market 😳

Markets not impressed with the Fed and virus fears heighten as China sees a big uptick in daily reported cases and Fed also warn of risks to economy in their FOMC report. https://www.seeitmarket.com/coronavirus-historical-stock-market-performance-with-pandemics/

Overnight Indices and Oil down. Bonds, USD and Gold up. Today EU business climate at 10am. UK BoE rate decision at 12:00, Carney speaks at 12:30. Ger CPI at 1pm. US GDP at 1:30pm. Japan indy prod at 11:50pm.

that's true but as per my first post, there is no minimum on the limit stop order (take profit) so if you had accidentally hit the sell button instead of the buy button the stop loss (just labeled 'stop') would automatically be placed 6 points above current price and if you tried to move it down any distance below it would 'snap back to 6 points above current price'.

What grit though, being wrong continuously since 2010 and never giving up. Of course a hair stylist is out of the question as he's done his **** shorting this market all the way up bless him 😧

but a man can dream can't he, though by the look of the state of him, after 10 years it's probably time to move on 😭

it was reading the above that was confusing, the stop loss on a long can't be above the current price, so could not have snapped back to above the current price.

Hi, it should be much too early or any change in stop requirement for the FOMC. I'm not sure what you are meaning, if you are long the Dow then you must be on either the spread bet or cfd platform but there is no minimum for the limit which is a take profit order, only for the stop loss which is a min of 6. Certainly the demo platform seems to be working ok.

IG retail client Long/Short net positioning; nb/ SI = Silver, CL = Crude Oil, GC = Gold.

Dax and Dow rather directionless between the pivot and R1. M5 charts;

Yes, I've often wondered about this too. On Zerohedge of course; Tiho Brkan @TihoBrkan 4h I swear I've seen this "expert" predict Dow Jones 5,000 eleven times during the last 11 years of the bull market. Why is it not working? https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/its-time-sell-charles-nenner-warns-market-will-go-down-40