Caseynotes
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Posts posted by Caseynotes
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An hour into the London session and Ftse is already at the proposed target set this morning so I may have to re-think my 'rules', any suggestions? The reason for the 1 hour wait was that I've seen stats (somewhere, long ago, probably made up) that the session low or high is in within the first hour after open some 75% of the time.
The base did look sound and the chart was short term very bullish well before the Eur open so perhaps should have just pulled the trigger on the off in such a situation.
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Worth updating the daily chart and gold retested 1266 yesterday and got a bounce but the hourly inset doesn't look so convincing.
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Dax like Ftse has taken off early but lets wait and see.
LT bull, MT neutral, ST bear/neutral. The daily ATR is 94 points.
The 30 min chart looks to have a session low at 12310 and we would be looking at a target around 12400 (R1) but will wait for 1 hour after London open to confirm.
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So we may as well continue our trials with the Ftse, I've kept away from this and gbpusd for a long time since the brexit made them very difficult to read but never the less I need another live market to play on.
To recap we are looking to the first hour of market open to try to identify the session high or low, from there we are using the 14 daily average of the average true range to set a target for the day. So it's a bit like the London Breakout Strategy but we are not looking identify the breakout but rather looking to identify it's base. The easiest way to keep score is to let IG do the leg work by simply placing a long call or put on demo.
Ftse;
LT bull, MT neutral, ST bear/neutral. ATR is currently 52 points.
So looking at the chart and rather annoyingly ftse seems to be already taking off to the upside, before the eur open even, but we'll stick to the rules that I'm making up as I go along for er ... reasons.
Currently we are looking at a session low of 7338 which is the value area low and a ATR target which coincides with R1.
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All part of the learning curve, but what is the takeaway though? Maybe consider instead of looking for reversals look for failed dips and rallies. Most patterns are continuation patterns, price come out in the same direction it went in, major reversals are far less frequent.
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Looking at the daily charts and the correction of the last 2 days doesn't look too dramatic but today should be telling with the NFP data this afternoon.
9:30 GB services PMI,
10:00 Eur CPI and PMI,
1:30 US NFP, AHE and the Employment Rate.
3:00 US non-manu PMI.
Reminder that the ADP nfp earlier in the week was a massive beat of nearly 100k
The S&P puts in a doji daily bar yesterday supported at the level of consolidation from a week ago. The overarching theme remains bullish for the indices.
Daily.thumb.png.abd2bb33d8a44aed87de1a9030789972.png)
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Not sure youse are understanding the signal service at all. Firstly both providers are third party companies and stand aside of IG so IG blogs and analysis etc have nothing to do with PIA or Autochartist. Secondly they provide computer generated chart patterns that are in the process of forming and nearing completion so they are more a screener than purely analytical. Sometimes the pattern completes and sometimes not but completed patterns and the resulting price movement are well studied and have stats to back up their probability of success.
So you are looking at a screener that is flagging up the possibility of a chart pattern completion but it is computer generated and it's up to the client to decide if the trade and risk/reward involved is acceptable.
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So, after a large drop down yesterday and today for the indices taking price back down to those of 2 weeks ago the S&P has found support at 2900 and has hoisted itself back up above the 2912 key support level with just under an hour to go before the US market close.
H4 chart.
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@EdFuk, try this thread for help tips, you will need to get mt4 open to delete the indicator causing the conflict.
If worst comes to the worst and you need to uninstall mt4 don't click the 'delete personal data' box, you may be able to save it, but if the problem is still present on a reinstall you will need to uninstall again and tick the box and start again after a complete wipe.
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On the US open Dow bounces up off the recent low 26345 having pushed it's way down through 26400, should next have another try for the pivot at 26481.
Dax moving back up to R1 having spent the last couple of hours resting on it's daily pivot and point of control (12345).
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@SRD, you might find it's available via phone to the IG dealing desk.
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13 minutes ago, nit2wynit said:
erm...:D @Caseynotes That's a bit extreme.
Not extreme in the slightest, you can pick up a perfectly serviceable colt 45 from your friendly neighbourhood gangsta for next to nothing these days and it won't half concentrate the mind a treat. Quick decision making needs practice.
Probably what you really need is a screener, so see to which requirements you are looking for in a stock. I posted a link to one just recent that had a very long list of possible inputs, you should find by putting 'screener' in the forum search bar.
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'Gun to your head' stock picks for day trading would actually be a good practice exercise, certainly sharpen up your selection and execution skills.
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Dax made the target (12390) quite comfortably but Dow got hung up the pivot and couldn't break through and just now survived a fierce push down to retest 26400, looks to being bought back up from that level again so maybe another try on the pivot to follow.
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ok, lets call the session low for Dow is the value area low 26400 and so the target atr high is at 26525 and Dax the low is also the value area low at 12300 and with the target atr already beaten will be looking instead for R1 and yesterday's point of control at 12390.
Once again, if it all goes wrong then maybe if I keep doing it long enough it will all average out 😅
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Well this is fun, the 90 point range was reached by the 7 am candle, resistance found at yesterdays value area low then a strong 30 min red candle down to find support at today's value area low (12300) and we still haven't had the PMIs yet 😂
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The combo of mixed earnings results, slight miss on the US manu PMI and a frozen Fed's Powell yesterday lead to a loss of confidence in the indices that may turn out to be overdone as is often the case on initial reactions.
Dax is LT bull, MT bull/neutral and ST neutral/bearish. Currently lingering midway between S1 and pivot (as is Dow) and both looking a little lost.
Waiting for the Eur open at 7 am to give a hint at direction then the more important London open at 8 am. And then in the first hour of the London session to see if we can identify the low or high of the session and then try to plot out the opp high/low target based on the current 14 day average true range which is currently 90ish odd points.
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For limited time only, free Kindle version of Steve Burns 'Calm Trader: Win in the Stock Market without Losing Your Mind'.
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Poor old Powell, even when he stands stock still he can't get it right.
Ger manu PMI at 8:55 and Eur PMI at 9:00 today. BoE rate decision and mon pol statement at 12:00 and the presser at 12:30.
Dow looks to have strong support immediately under as does Dax but Ftse looks a bit vulnerable, this 7351 is a previous high from March 21st which may serve.
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Oh dear, do the fed not realise Trump's not going to like this ...
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yes cme have just introduced micro lots trading but the problem you will face is that the US currently require initial deposits of min 10,000usd - 15,000 usd to open an account. The US used to do cfd's (sb's) which were the most popular way to trade till they banned them, now the 80% just lose their money on options and futures trading instead.
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you can move them but the thing is that FOMC is the biggest news event there is and so anything other than a guaranteed stop is going to be prone to slippage where price just jumps over your stop and leaves you exposed. To avoid this the min stop level is widened leading up to, and for some time after, the data release, be aware well before and plan and adjust in good time.
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@Redeye76, sounds like it might be too close to the actual price especially as stops auto widen going into a big news release, I presume you are talking S&P. Try moving in increments towards where you are trying to place it.
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A graphic showing the new trader's natural progression though the technical indicator listings;
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Daily.png.32a3e1c8038012d34f9860be067218c7.png)
Dax & Dow
in Indices and Macro Events
Posted
Similar situation as just described in the Ftse thread, Dax already well on the way to the proposed target from this morning and a diminishing RR. Perhaps I should also incorporate a breakout rule to add for these situations? After all, I'm just making it up as I go along. Thoughts anyone.