Caseynotes
-
Posts
13,207 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
556
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Blogs
Events
Community Tutorials
Store
Posts posted by Caseynotes
-
-
After a 30 min battle at 26188 Dow storms up to 26241 in a single 5 min bar. Important level this, mentioned many times before in above posts, if price can break this level R2 at 26317 is the next target.
-
Ah @dmedin, I can see where you going wrong there. Too much faith in Technical Analysis, if the markets were scientific it would all just fall apart so relying on scientific tools will inevitably lead to confusion and sorrow. TA is not about rules, not even guidelines really, more just suggested possibilities, which is why you will find people using techniques very differently producing a multitude of signals that are all themselves just equal possibilities.
In books and on SM you will see loads of examples of technical patterns working out but I don't think I've ever seen a book on technical patterns not working, don't suppose it would sell very well really. You will find plenty of commentators who have swallowed TA books whole and then regurgitate everything back up onto a fresh chart, all you will see is a godawful mess.
Best advice I could give is to stick to Wykcoff and supply and demand, the basic mechanics of a market.
Most people prefer SB over options because of the greater level of control, with SB you pay a stop loss which will get you out of a trade as soon as the trade turns against you. But as demonstrated in the SSI thread, 80% don't seem be able to use this basic tool competently.
-
1
-
-
The H4 charts starting to look a little raggity but hanging on to the bull flags. The Dow hourly is on a up leg so looking for R1 at 26241, looking downward some support likely at the daily pivot around 26150 otherwise it's back down to 26061.
On the calendar the Cny trade bal (anytime today ) could cause a stir, EU Indy Prod could cause an upset at 10 am as could US consumer sentiment at 3 pm.
-
Thank you @Bell, I try to keep it real and not worry to much about bias, if I see price charging up a chart I'll expect it to continue til it stops, I'm sure the chart will tell me when.
Though I don't trade large time frame charts the rationale should be the same. If price is going up look for an opportunity to get long, try to stay in for as long as possible, expect continuation even when it approaches a boundary, but cross your fingers, tighten your stop and be ready to bail just in case.
I do know some traders who make a living picking tops and bottoms but none of them has less than 10 years experience. The worst thing to do is to allow yourself to be bias lead, you can always find something on a chart to add weight to a hunch no matter how preposterous it might be, which is why I tend to keep away from the media pundits, they can't go on tv and just say "I don't know".
-
Maybe @RichardSmith, but currently the Nasdaq is zeroing in on it's all time high while 80% of IG clients are short.
-
Interesting insight into the order book;
-
Dow still lingering about the recent low 26100 and Dax back in tracking mode. So looking for either a retest of 26100 or a break of the daily pivot 26161 and a push higher with Dax to follow.
-
Dow looks keen to retest 26100 on the US market open but Dax and Ftse not showing much interest in following
H1 charts;
-
Dow not able to break up through the daily pivot this morning is holding Dax back.
H1 charts;
-
Trump again times trade war threats just as the markets close in on the highs, this time taking aim at the EU who were very quick to threaten stiff retaliation on any US action.
Dow looking to build on the base at 26100.
UK GDP and manu prod at 9:30, EU rate decision and mon pol statement at 12:45 with presser at 1:30 and last fed mtg minutes at 7:00 pm.
-
Dow in a bit of a flash crash and drops 150 points after dropping through 26241, may find support here at 26100.
-
Here is the Dax SSI chart from the post above moved on 1 week and highlights the precision that longs bailed having been buying the whole week from the 20/03 all the way down to the bottom at 11400ish. And that's where the sellers stepped in to start selling all the way back up to 12000. err.
Standing back the overall chart is undoubtedly bullish and really retail traders should have only been looking for dips to buy, that's it. A fair majority of those 74% holding shorts must now be well underwater and hoping for a miracle.
Institutional traders are looking at this, if they want those short contracts for themselves they may well try a stop run and then buy them all up, if they want long contracts instead then they are just going to run the stops over anyway.
-
9 minutes ago, elle said:
Books for Saudi Aramco's USD bond are reportedly now over $85bln ! Wonder if that has any influence?
I did see that go through but I've no idea if it would impact on price or not.
-
Not much on the calendar again today, markets still in wait mode. Time again for the 'this is the top' chart for all those who have been waiting so patiently for over 3 years for a bear market.
-
CryptoCred has updated and re-organised his free trading study guide (linked page 2 of this thread), here is the new link;
-
Oil cruises up through the possible resistance level mentioned in the OP this morning with help from Trump who will now need to talk it down again 😂
-
1
-
-
On the US open Dow tests 26241 (red) for support which was resistance back in early Fed as well as the beginning of this month. Ftse and Dax keeping in touch with recent highs, they just needs Dow to kick up.
H4 charts;
-
"OPEC and its partners are unlikely to decide on their output policy in April as it would be too early to get a clear picture of the impact of their supply cuts on the market by then, three OPEC sources said on Monday. The sources said the production policy by the so-called OPEC+ alliance is expected to be agreed on in June with an extension of the pact the likely scenario so far, but much depends on the extent of U.S. sanctions on both OPEC members Iran and Venezuela. “So far the likely decision is to extend the agreement in June. Nothing much is planned for April, just to discuss the OPEC and non-OPEC (cooperation pact),” one OPEC source ... (full story)
-
While the daily chart still presents as very bullish it's coming up to a long term support level which may turn into resistance. Big OPEC meeting Thursday so may see sideways movement til then.
-
1
-
-
Dax and Ftse putting in bullish engulfing bars on the European open 1 hour chart.
-
Minimal movement over the weekend, just sitting watching those highs. Not much on the calendar til Wednesday when there is the ECB rate decision and mon pol statement and in the evening the Fed minutes from the last meeting.
Daily charts;
-
Interesting times, Dow and S&P fast approaching all time highs but also entering into triple top territory.
The crowd are all sitting on shorts so the contrarian is obviously looking hard at going long.
A US/China deal could be immanent (as it has been for the last 6 months, meh) and then there is the inverted yield curve *bites nails*.
But here's an interesting chart, ISABELNET @ISABELNET_SA "Historically, a recession begins when the real Fed Funds rate exceeds GDP growth. We are far from that right now. So, this cycle should not end any time soon."
This would make sense as high US GDP and low CPI is not recession territory, the opposite in fact.
As ever when looking for a longer term trade price approaching boundaries is not the time to jump in, the time to jump in is when price is leaving the boundary, whichever direction that might be.
-
Quite right @TrendFollower, for retail traders the higher time frames should be a filter, if you are going to run against them it can only be for a short distance and you had better be constantly looking over your shoulder. So if you are intending to be in a trade for more than a day it's pointless trying to short a high in a uptrend or go long on a low in a downtrend and yet that is what started the downfall in every one of the examples above.
It seems to be a lesson never learnt, it's always 'this time will be different' and it nearly always never is. If retail could stop that one bad habit it would make a massive impact on the '80% of retail traders lose money' statistic.
That was the main reason I brought up the SSI data. Yes the SSI data can sometimes be used as a contrarian signal, that if (as now) 75% of retail are short the major US indices then maybe long is the way to go but sometimes the crowd is right and so like any signal it needs to be considered against other data.
More importantly though is that the SSI data shows exactly when the crowd choose to go long or short and comparing that to the chart you can see exactly what's going wrong. They are repeatedly mistaking pullbacks for tops/bottoms. Pullbacks are a natural component of a trend but retail traders, because of a lack of experience, tend to cover their chart in lines and indicators so that every price twitch is going to trigger something and the move takes on unwarranted significance.
As has been demonstrated in the posts above, retail are constantly getting caught out and trapped trying to call the top, then digging deeper instead of just getting out, and finally being forced out with large losses. A chart can be read but a market can't be known, no one really knows what's going to happen tomorrow. The best course of action is to expect continuation until the chart demonstrates that a change has occurred and then look to decide what it's changed into, if it's a new trend climb aboard at the next pullback.
-
1
-
-
A look at recent Dax. Always take your lead off the daily, it's clearly uptrending so you are only looking for opportunities to go long if you are not trading intraday.
On 22nd Mar price broke down past the recent low and the SSI tells us retail started shorting (A), bad move.
Don't drill down time frames looking for indications to short because you will always find many, it doesn't matter what your indicators say when the daily is still in uptrend, wait first for the daily to signal trend change by not only putting in a lower low but a lower high as well, then you can look to the lower time frames.
Indicators only indicate possibilities, stamped candles are reality.
To rub salt into their self inflicted wound retail continued to run shorts all the way up (B) until they finally puked at C.
It's the same story over and over, trying to pick tops and bottoms, doubling down, holding losers.
Don't bother with bias, you can always find something on the chart or an indicator to support it no matter how wrong it is. Just read the chart and let it tell it's own story.
SSI, Why Traders Lose
in General Trading Strategy Discussion
Posted
Let's take a look at oil, surely oil traders know what they're doing.
On the chart (bottom pic) after the triple retest of support at 51.40 in mid Feb oil went on a bull run, went side ways late Feb then up again til late March stopped at 60.30 ish.
The SSI data shows retail went net short late March, the top was in ... but there were no lower lows, in fact support around 58.25 looked strong. No matter what, the short play was busted by the start of April which funnily enough was when retail really piled in short while long positions stayed flat, this pattern continued to the present.
Trying to pick tops, doubling down and then holding onto losers when the chart was really telling you to buy dips all along.