Caseynotes
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Posts posted by Caseynotes
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Yaaaa!
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Dax poised to push higher from the open while Dow needs to move up to and break recent resistance at 26699. Ftse still lingering close to recent support so first goal is to get back to 7527. Hopefully Nikkei is leading the way as it pops up above the recent resistance of 22371.
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Just an update on retail ('the crowd') positions in the indices and they remain short across the board, the contrarian bias therefore remains long.
How much short? A/ a lot. S&P 70%, Naz 76%, Dow 64%.
S&P;
And to emphasise just what 'the crowd' are shorting here is the daily chart of the S&P again.
Many like to blame brokers for 'the crowd' having a high loss rate, but as I pointed out in the SSI thread 'the crowd' have been shorting this since January. Eventually one day they will be right but will that ever make up for all the days (years in the case of 'Permabears') when they were wrong. OF COURSE NOT.
Boundaries are interesting places to trade but the idea is to trade as price is finished with them and is leaving (whichever direction that may be), not when price is heading in to test them.
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@KeithJ & @anthonybu, the 2 problems may be connected though Keith may be right in that it sounds like the connection between account and platform has not yet been established by IG.
There have been some problems on demo just lately after the weekly platforms shutdown for updates on Friday evenings that on restart some are not able to open or close positions. Just to point out the demo and live are completely separate and it is very rare for the live platform to misbehave. The demo for all brokers is primarily a test bed for the broker's technicians to trial upgrades and address any bugs before passing them on to the live platform. Any problems with the demo are likely to be resolved Monday morning. Hopefully @JamesIG will check.
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1 hour ago, elle said:
generally an upward trend
Interesting point, always going to be very subjective as the description will always depend on what you are using to view the object with and how you are going to interpret what you are seeing. For instance the chart below is using a triangular moving average with atr bands and though looks similar to your BBands shows a very different picture, neither is right or wrong, just different. You pays your money and takes your choice, price is not obliged in any way to respect either of them.
To go a step further, having such a large selection of tools available and personal choice as to which to use at any particular time one of the most important but difficult lessons to learn is being able to discern when to completely ignore what any of them might be telling us.
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Already seeing unusual activity in the weekend Dow, the chart shows the previous 4 weekends of fairly typical minor movement, the red vertical lines are the 4:00 am Sat weekend opening candle on this H4 chart, note the comparatively over sized 8:00 am bull candle for this morning. Could be interesting keeping an eye on this chart in the run up to the IG market open proper on Sunday evening.
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Was looking at this again as what is written above was a few hour before US market close. It was curious that on a day where US GDP came in at 3.2 beating the 2.2 expected that there was no rally and then seeing oil down and gold up was more conducive to a risk-off environment than risk-on.
So then looking at the charts again after US market close was another surprise. On a Friday nearing end of session you expect to see the markets trail off as positions get closed out before the weekend. But looking at the S&P there was the largest H1 candle of the day buying up to the all time high.
Why would anyone do that? It's worth thinking about as a possible clue for the week ahead. Worth mentioning also at this point that the week ahead contains the FOMC mtg, NFP numbers and the ISM PMI data.
So the bulls are all gathered at a pretty flimsy looking gate, they have been sniffing around it for a number of days now and can't seem to elicit any kind of meaningful response from the bears, where are they? If they are anywhere it should be here.
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I'd seen the IG mini chart app for mt4 before but not used it, it does give extra incite when quickly glancing through the large time frame charts.
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Dax has been jumping up to try to take a bite out of R1 all day but Dow not playing, even after the GDP beat and the US open, so leaving Dax to fall back to pivot each time.
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Interesting day so far, very good beat on the US GDP data release but the indices not able to rally while gold is up and oil is down 1 hour into the US market session.
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Gold slides back up through 1280.65 to 1286.30. A close above 1280 could lead to further gains next week.
Interesting 1:00 pm hourly candle where the US GDP beat sent price straight down to 1273 but was then bought back up again just as quick.
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Big drop in oil down to support at 63.124, needs to hold here or a drop to 60.00 looks likely.
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Following the last post now Part 2 of 2 on Modern Monetary Theory and it's inevitable rise in modern economics. Bonds, yields, assets and growth vs value.
https://www.themacrotourist.com/posts/2019/04/24/mmt2/
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US GDP comes in at 3.2% kicks the pair into life.
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Dax H1 trying to make a break for R1 without Dow, sometimes it works but not usually;
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Similar to the H4 Dow, ooops;
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Dax has made several attempts to go higher but reined in by Dow which is just mincing around just below the pivot. Dow looks to have some support at 26400 but not much enthusiasm to try a move up.
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Resurrecting this thread for an intraday commentary, refer to the Indices thread for the longer term charts.
Pre European open and Dow testing the daily pivot with Dax in tow.
Dow S1 is at yesterday's low 26300 and the first target for any up move is R1 is 26580.
Dax has S1 at 12230 and R1 at yesterday's high at 12330.
H1 charts;
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Still in bullish mode Dow tested the daily chart support level 26300 yesterday which held so should now see a test of resistance though as seen yesterday corporate earnings jitters can cause lively chart action. Also today at 1:30 pm is the US Advance GDP figure which may also cause a stir.
Dax mid way between daily support and resistance and as yesterday will be looking to the Dow for direction.
Ftse's had 2 down days following Dow but sights still on the recent high at 7527.
Nikkei has held firm overnight and looking poised for a move higher.
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Friday's pre-market earnings releases names and charts;
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Gold made a strong attempt to get back above 1280 but beaten back, interesting given the current strength of the USD and Oil.
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Dax and Dow on their way back up having got over the earnings upset (see post above). Dax back above the pivot and Dow back above S1
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Dow, after testing S1 and working it's way back up just took a very sudden dive down to S2 coinciding with the 3M Q1 earnings release miss. Dax heading back down to the pivot in sympathy 😢
Dax & Dow
in Indices and Macro Events
Posted
Dax really pulling away, if can hold above the daily resistance level 12353 the next resistance is not until 12453.