Caseynotes
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Posts posted by Caseynotes
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Thursday's pre-market big names and charts.
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US durable goods data at 1:30 pm today. Dow and S&P still loitering just under the ATHs losing momentum but not looking too concerned, still waiting for a push.
On the H1 Dow working it's way up to the new daily pivot around 26600 and Dax looking up at a first target of yesterday's high at 12350.
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So, at end of day Dax found support at R1 while Dow broke down to find support at S1 and in the meantime USD finally broke out of long term consolidation;
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Dow failed at 26700 and once again down to retest the pivot on the US open, Dax pulls back down to test R1, see if they hold.
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Australian financial regulator ASIC starting to sound a lot like the EU regulator ESMA with regards to high leverage for retail clients, leverage reduction may be on it's way.
"While the focus of the European regulators has been on delivering a plain and simple message that retail clients are losing too much money while trading, the ASIC’s focusing on a specific issue – the structure of markets and “ridiculous leverage”.
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Dax makes for R3 while S&P sets up for an assault on the summit;
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Gold ready for another leg down? 1 hour;
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Looks to be setting up for a push higher on the 1 hour;
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Dow slow away having insisted on another test of the pivot while Dax was happily steering for R1 when got a nasty shock from the poor ifo business climate data at 9 am. Looks to be getting back into it's stride again now though.
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Not sure which screen Kyle was looking at on the APAC brief but Dow not quite at the ATH. Worryingly this is usually about the time Trump chooses to ratchet up the trade war threats though it might be different this time, both sides making noises the final deal is near.
Dow currently bouncing up off the daily pivot looking to target R1 at 26750.
Dax has just tested S1 and heading back up to the pivot at 12231 with R1 beyond that at 12282.
As ever we may see some initial jockeying on market open but the overall trend remains bullish.
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S&P closing in on the 'All Time High', still a couple of hours to go before the US market close, bears seem to be hibernating (hiding), difficult to see how this level will remain standing.
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2 hours ago, RichardSmith said:
On the other hand, with DAX failing to get above weekly 100 MA and potential head and shoulders forming on a daily chart I see it going downwards this week to about 11845 mark. EUR consumers don't look confident either. Any thoughts?
Certainly maybe Richard, there should be support around that level if Dax does reverse but I would myself expect continuation upward if the US indices break through to the upside though.
Many like to pick and choose, mix and match, indicators, patterns and time frames to suit our bias, you see such posted all the time, but going down that road leads to madness because we will always be able to find many combos that will support whatever bias we have.
Looking at the weekly 100 MA, price last week put in a powerful bull bar right to it and with only one day trading this week can't really say it's failed there yet. I can't really see a forming H&S pattern on the daily (see how to post a chart below), and I wouldn't worry about EU consumers as all the Dax companies are big multi-nationals, so I suspect Dax will follow the US indices upward if they break, riding on the back of increasing risk-on sentiment.
My charts are MT4 charts, to post IG charts click on the 3 dots (options) tab then 'export chart' and a copy of the on-screen chart will be placed in your download folder (without any personal info).
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Gold move down related to today's dollar move up, DXY looking looking to break up out of 6 month consolidation, watch out dollar fx pairs.
Daily DXY chart;
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Not much standing in the way of 1250 now;
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Nice piece explaining MAs and EMAs and their calcs plus Death and Golden crosses with today's Bitcoin chart used to give examples.
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Dow unable to break the pivot but not really pushing lower either, Dax pushed further down to test S2 where it's currently stalled.
Into the afternoon and US open and long term still bullish so looking for support confirmation and on to seek resistance.
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Oil heading towards 70.00, has a liking for resting up at round numbers as has been pointed out before. Big recent boost from the US halting the Iran oil export waivers.
The Chinese are not happy and may well make waves as they import a lot from Iran, so may not be all plain sailing ahead.
Daily chart;
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For the longer view see one and two posts above, for today's morning session Dow and Dax on a leg up with Dow just checking at PP and targeting R1 around 26620. Dax first target is 12277 while Ftse needs to clear resistance at 7495 before progression.
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Looking at the weekly charts and the 4 month bull run from Dec 23rd continues for the major indices. As mentioned in the last post US indices are approaching the boundary high and will be looking for a push which may come from the big tech earnings data. This week should indicate which way for the major US tech companies with ebay, amazon, facebook, intel and microsoft plus many others all due to report this week.
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2 hours ago, dmedin said:
I'm a big fan of TA but I always have the thought at the back of my mind, 'How much of this is snake oil ...'
I would divide educators into sectors.
Some provide trading study guides which tend to be similar in content but vary in the level of importance attached to each component and also vary in their general ability to be understood.
Some proved lessons in chart reading such as how to draw up a charts, levels and trendlines, identifying structure etc.
And some advocate indicators, some of which are important and some are not depending on your own trading style.
It's a case of horses for courses in choosing what may be relevant to your own trading style so if considering paying for any material it would be worth considering first if the educator's style suited your own ideas on trading. Certainly I've never included any 'pay for' courses in this thread unless they are being offered free for a limited period.
For your true snake oil salesmen you should look to instagram for signal sellers, they are easy to spot because their posts will contain pics of;
the hired for the day Lambo, stacks of cash (fake, bought in bulk on ebay), magnificent home lifted from a travel brochure, replica Ferrari key fobs (also from ebay), charts of winning trades selected from either the demo where they went long or the other demo where they went short at the same time.
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AND 777 IS THE NUMBER OF ... companies reporting earnings this coming week and some very big tech names amongst them. This is significant as the US indices are waiting at the boundary for either a push forward or a pull down and big tech have been the main drivers for some time now.
Bear in mind also the US market opens tomorrow and that the following week also has a large number corporate earnings releases. See the calendar below.
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BoA fund manager survey on global economy turning up;
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US indices still hanging around the highs with nowhere else to go. Dax has the Ger PMIs to look forward to at 8:30 am and EU combined at 9:00. US retail sales at 1:30 pm. US Flash PMIs at 2:45 pm could be interesting.
Dax and Ftse have dropped under the daily pivot and currently revisiting support on the M15 charts, wait and see if these levels hold, may see some unwinding of positions today before the Easter break.
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Philadelphia semiconductor index takes off, sign for the Nasdaq ahead?
Modern Monetary Theory
in General Trading Strategy Discussion
Posted
Part 1 of 2 of a followup to the OP in this thread is a must read. Why are all the classical economists unable to explain the current global economic situation? The Permabears have been waiting years for the sky to fall and still nothing. How come Japan's massive debt load hasn't sunk their economy? And where is all the **** INFLATION?
https://www.themacrotourist.com/posts/2019/04/23/mmt1/
PRACTITIONER'S GUIDE TO MMT: PART 1