Caseynotes
-
Posts
13,207 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
556
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Blogs
Events
Community Tutorials
Store
Posts posted by Caseynotes
-
-
Aha you may be thinking, but that's just dumb indices retail traders, FX retail traders know their stuff.
Take a look at usdjpy.
The absolute precision in which long traders who were buying all the way down bailed (at the very bottom), and where short traders started selling (at the very bottom).
That's not pure luck. To buy high and sell low with such precision must take as much work as doing it the right way around.
This SSI chart is using US time zone. See how it looks in GB time in the 2nd pic/
-
1 - Doubling Down.
2 - Holding Losers.
3. - Trying to Pick Tops and Bottoms.
I started discussing the SSI and COT data in the Indices thread but I want to encapsulate and collect the basic points together to show the main reasons why retail traders fail.
Using the Dow as an example, so retail traders went net short starting 2nd Jan (pic 1) which coincided with the rally failure in the recent down trend, fine (pic 2).
But the pullback reversal itself failed on the 8th Jan, the bears had had their chance and blown it, time to get out of those shorts right, the chart had turned bullish. But the % net shorts kept increasing all through Jan and stayed net short 75% - 80% all through Feb while price was storming up the chart. Then holding on to losing trades all through the March consolidation.
Retail had got it wrong so initially doubled down and then hung on to the losers.
Look at the 3rd pic which shows the COT data for the same period. Small speculators went net short 2nd Jan same as above. Large speculators on the other hand had been reducing their net longs but come the start of Fed were confident enough to set about increasing their long exposure again.
Back to the top chart again. The consolidation through March and maybe those losing trades would come good right? That's desperation tactics not a planed strategy.
But look again, in the last week there has been a price run up to test the recent high, what does that mean for retail, why it's another opportunity to go short again of course, I mean it must be the top this time right?
80% of retail traders lose money for a reason (or 3). It used to be said that 90% of retail traders lose 90% of their account within 90 days.
The SSI graph show exactly how this is remarkable accomplishment is achieved by so many.
-
3
-
-
The indices got a boost overnight from China president Xi reporting the trade talks are going well (he does't usually comment).
US NFP today 1:30 and the word on the street is it could be a big number after last months dismal 20k which was due to a freezing Feb. The mid-week ADP was 129k and the forecast for today is 172k.
Presenting a guest appearance in the charts today, the AUS 200.
Daily charts and all, except the AUS, are itching to go higher.
-
That's interesting and worth knowing, I wonder how often that situation occurs, presumably more likely on less traded assets.
-
Dax backs down after topping yesterday's high, Dow trying to rise after a slow start and special guest index AUS200 hovers around it's daily chart support level.
H1 charts;
-
Dax really wants to push higher but being held back by Dow.
1 min Dax with 1 min Dow (Dow 100 ema only), once the Dow ema heads upward Dax should be away.
-
1
-
-
Was just comparing the SSI data from FXCM with the COT and the Dow daily chart.
Both the FXCM and COT confer that small speculators and retail (sameish) decided that the week starting 2nd of Jan was the time to go short on the Dow and have been flogging that horse ever since.
Large speculators were reducing there long exposure through Jan but started piling back in increasing long exposure again from the start of Feb, but not retail, oh no, they knew better. Gulp.
-
Interesting survey results from Bloomburg on interest rate expectations up to Q4 2020.
A/ not much change.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-04/central-bankers-are-hitting-the-pause-button
-
Dax made the running yesterday while the others keep in touch with recent highs. After the good news on the trade talks the inevitable downer that one major sticking point was China's insistence that all tariffs be removed before signing.
Some initial sell off in Dax on the European open this morning but with all 4 posting green daily candles yesterday starting today anticipating continuation.
H4 charts with S&P daily.
Daily.thumb.png.6670acaece052cd06933f8830b1a717c.png)
-
ADP nfp a miss at only 129k
-
Dow and S&P setting up for a strong US market open at 2:30pm.
The API forerunner nfp today at 1:15pm 184K forecast. The US non-manu PMI at 3:00pm, 58.1 forecast.
Dow daily with monthly pivots thrown in for good measure.
-
Dax gets a boost from latest EU PMI data while Ftse takes a hit with lower than expected Services PMI.
-
9 hours ago, Guest Imran said:
Hi All - Having an issue when logging in MT4 on my demo account on my phone. It will ask me to use numbers for my login even though my login is with characters? Any suggestion?
Hi Imran, the login for your mt4 accounts should have come from IG and is all numbers and can't be changed, only the password can be changed.
-
All the indices got a 1:00 am kick up on a FT report that the US/China trade talks have made real progress.
H1 charts plus the S&P daily this time which has surged ahead into clear space.
-
@Jasmineliu, that is really odd, yeah @cryptotrader, the account has been funded so it has been linked but just isn't now, can only suggest to ask for tech support at the IG helpdesk.
-
ok, so the live feed needs to turn blue when you click on it, if doesn't then it's not active.
-
In your first post your pic shows you logged into your Live account and you had no demo account set up but the pic in your last post shows the demo account is the one that is active, did you just open a new demo? see pic below.
-
ok, and your feed from IG is ok? File > open an account > pic.
-
Hi @Jasmineliu, your order ticket is not live for some reason, see pic below.
The symbol tab should fill automatically for the opened chart and the sell buy should be coloured. Try the symbol drop down to select manually.
-
More SSI, this time from FXCM; S&P 85% short, Dow 86% short.
Now yes of course price might just reverse here ... but also it might not, how can 85-86% be so sure, it doesn't actually make any sense. They have all seen a red line and automatically presumed price is going to reverse on it. If I was smart money I know exactly what I'd do.
-
1
-
-
Ftse breaks up above 7370, Dow awaiting US market open, Dax stalls at 11760 (R1 pivot), and will look to Dow for direction.
H1 charts;
-
Biggest volume of the year so far pushing this latest move up.
-
15 hours ago, Guest Dow open said:
Yes -it is better to wait. I usually do so but jumped the gun this time. Usually better to wait for a "whippy" move to play out before getting in. In fact, it usually pays to mark in hi/low of "whip" and wait for price to trade out either side. - requires patience., but usually worth it.
@Turnip230248, there is a good exercise to help with recognising when the rhythm of the market is too whippy and when it has calmed and moving in a more controlled manner. I've heard it mentioned a few times before but it came up again today to remind me.
On demo zoom in as close as you can go and enlarge the price scale so the current candle on a one hour chart takes up as much of the screen as possible, get a feel for how price pulses up and down on the current candle. Try to read it and anticipate, hitting the buy or sell and exiting over and over. It's a practice exercise on market movement and not a trading style so you use it to learn to gauge the current pace of rhythm of the market in order to help with trading on your actual time frame.
-
Very tentative easing forward, expecting continuation today, US durable goods at 1:30, US market open 2:30.
H4 charts and Dow daily.
Daily.png.b9d44d1bae6adbb2bfb7aece8d1e6fe6.png)
Client Sentiment - All on one page?
in General Trading Strategy Discussion
Posted
@andysinclair, you've cracked it, well done.