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Posts posted by Caseynotes

  1. 3 Glaring Mistakes Made by New Traders.

    All mistakes are borne out of naivety and inexperience that time spent in the markets will resolve but the sooner you identify these 3 very basic mistakes the better off you will be. These 3 mistakes can't be resolved by reading more books or spending longer on the demo platform, only time spent in the market will do it but I thought I'd give a heads up to help identify these 3 as I see them routinely showing up on forums and on twitter over the years.

    1/ Lack of healthy scepticism.

    Don't believe everything you read. Leaving aside the blatantly ridiculous claims of making millions in a few days made by scammers there is an army of thousands out there, and you will find them on twitter and on forums, who have spent years reading trading books and can really talk the talk but who, unfortunately, never learnt how to walk the walk. But they will never let an opportunity pass by to exercise their ego and tell everyone what they should be doing. Listen to these guys at your peril, they will lead you down the same blind alleys they went down and from which they never returned.

    But how can you tell who's who? An absolute giveaway is the very thing that drives their need to pretend and lecture in the first place, it's their ego. They like to generalise and avoid specifics, most of the content of their lectures can be found in any trading book and they always exhibit just a bit too much self importance. If you read enough of their stuff you will discover it's all contradictory and filled out with repetitious platitudes that will not help you on your journey to becoming a trader. They have wasted years and don't mind at all if you do the same. It's their ego that drives them, probably trying to salvage some self respect following years of failure.

    2/ The Gambler.  

    Everyone likes a gamble, it's good fun but unfortunately it's not a career, sure there are successful professional 'gamblers' but those guys don't actually gamble, they have a game plan and they have worked out the stats that predicts the success of that game plan over x number of plays, they play a numbers game, they don't rely on blind luck.

    But unfortunately all that means work which many don't find much fun at all so gambling it is then. The crucial thing about gambling is that the casino (market) always wins in the end, it's just a matter of time. No one gets lucky all of the time so in that case if you are looking for a career in trading you had better start planning and testing, once you have a plan that survives testing then you can start trading instead of gambling, ya. Most gamblers won't see this til after they have blown their account which is a shame but doesn't really matter because most gamblers don't want to do the work required in the first place.

    3/ The trading platform is not a computer game.

    'Oh, so what is it then?' Well, is an electronic attempt to capture the constant movement of a real time 2 way auction. 'Oh, sorry I asked.'
    Isn't it a nuisance when playing a computer game and you pull the trigger and nothing happens, you bash the controller while shouting insults at microsoft. These are the usual responses you see on forums when the same thing happens on a trading platform and why not?

    Well true enough there may be technical issues but it could equally be the market auction has just stopped. Picture this, back in the olden days guys were shoulder to shoulder on the trading room floor, everything is working fine, price is gliding sedately back and forth through levels as buys and sells are exchanged. But wait, some big guy has just walked in and picked up all the buys for the next 3 handles, he must know something, everyone pulls their remaining orders while trying to figure out what it is, the price board is stuck at the last traded price. Is there any point then in you standing up and shouting 'buy' at a price that no longer exists, you'd look a complete idiot. Of course on the computer trading platform you may not know this has happened so you go on smashing the buy button and shouting insults at your broker to absolutely no avail.

    So learn about slippage and requotes, stopped auctions, unborrowable and unlongable, volatility and liquidity and the rest of it and recognise that the platform is just a representation of a live market and is not the actual market itself. Some platforms are designed with a bias towards dealing, some with a bias towards charting, none are perfect, practice on as many as you can before choosing one. This is not as onerous as it sounds as they all function in a similar way.


    As I said at the beginning, some things just can't be learnt from books or on the demo platform, some things can only be learnt by doing it for real which is why when starting out don't think to risk x percentage of your account on a trade but rather start with the smallest position size the broker will allow and work up as experience and confidence increase. The learning curve can be very expensive and your first priority is always survival.

  2. KUNGFLU 😉

    The UK govt is telling us this morning that the total lockdown could well last into summer, great. In the US meanwhile the govt is thinking along the lines of isolating hotspots and allowing the rest of the country to get on about it's business, unfortunately the biggest hotspot is New York City which accounts for over half of all US confirmed cases.

    • Great! 1

  3. On 25/03/2020 at 07:27, dmedin said:

    Big bull candles overnight, I'm long indices today.  Hope they've thoroughly cleaned the bull's **** :D


    Hey look, while you were tickling one end all the action was happening at the other!!


    • Great! 1

  4. 8 hours ago, ha05230 said:

    “In France, the government caved to pressure from a doctor who ran his own very small and rapid trial of the drug combined with an antibiotic in 26 people, using methodology that has been seriously criticised. Dr Didier Raoult, a professor of infectious diseases who works at La Timone hospital in Marseille, then declared in a video on YouTube that chloroquine was a cure for Covid-19 and should be used immediately.“

    You can hardly call a trial with 26 people statistically significant considering 660k confirmed cases worldwide thus far and 30k deaths.

    actually I was referring to Didier Raoult's trial of 80 people (link posted previously) which is still not many but added to the US trials which give similar findings I suspect most would rather give it a go when the alternative is death.

    yes, the danger is drowning in your own secretions during the pneumonia stage of the illness. In countries with wide spread testing only 1% of confirmed cases enter this stage, 99% of confirmed cases are either asymptomatic or classified as mild with normal cold or flu symptoms. Also, the 1% are almost exclusively in the over 70s age group. So hydroxychloroquine is treating the affects of the pneumonia rather than the corona virus itself.

    There is still massive differences in the reporting of cases between different countries, it's just been revealed the German corona death rates are much lower because they count only if the death is actually by corona and not deaths of patients with corona.

    Italy remains in a class of it's own, though as below, have a history of large scale death rates amongst the elderly in previous years that seem to have gone largely unnoticed.



    3 hours ago, Caseynotes said:

    80 patients treated with hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin, clinical improvement in all but 1 who died, 97% of the 80 were virus negative by day 5.



    "BREAKING: French government reverses earlier ban on hydroxychloroquine for treating COVID19 patients in light of successful clinical studies showing significant efficacy against the virus. Hydroxychloroquine may now be prescribed to treat COVID-19 in France."


  6. 13 minutes ago, dmedin said:

    Deep cultural differences ...


    the point is you can't quarantine an entire population, only sub sections. People won't sit indoors and starve to death so you have to let them out to shop so don't then really have a quarantine at all. Look at Belgium in the FT graph above, started quarantine very early on and it made no difference whatsoever.

    Cultural differences;



  7. Very interesting 1 hour video lecture produced by the Institute of Trading and Portfolio Management.

    "Why People Suck at Trading and at Life" - Ross Williams. Released 12th March this year, already 47,000 views.

    Deliberately provocative title the lecture gets you to think about the process of becoming a trader, what's needed and what's not. What to do and what to avoid.


  8. 11 hours ago, 22fdunst said:


    New to IG. What time does trading start and end on major indices (FTSE, Wall St, Germany 30 etc) on week days and over the weekend? 

    Hi, with the clocks going forward 1 hour tomorrow Indices will re-open at 11pm Sunday and close around 10pm Friday. You can trade the major indices on the weekend charts after 8am Saturday i think (see the dropdown arrow next to the normal cash chart title).

  9. Dow and Dax weekly chart. Next week US non farm payrolls data job losses already priced in. US Trump hoping to relieve lock down conditions after Easter but most commentators say prob too early. New German research says corona infected unable to pass on the virus post 8 days symptom free. Italy regrets advising people to 'hug a Chinese' in a anti racism promotion early on in corono epidemic. UK clocks spring forward this Sunday. Stay safe. 


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  10. 6 minutes ago, dmedin said:

    Turns out today was a debbie downer day, bear candle at 6am (hourly chart) followed by confirmation at 7am and down all day since then.  Bummer.

    week end and near month and quarter end and given the potential for high volatility over the weekend as of late probably not too surprising.

    • Like 1

  11. 3 minutes ago, OrangeJuice said:

    Apologies, I haven't been clear. 
    If I open a live account, will that single account allow be to Share deal as well as CFD and SB or will I be required to create different types of live accounts (1 account for Sharedealing, 1 account for SB/CFD) ?

    that's right you need 2 different accounts. SB and CFD are leveraged accounts so you are unable to use them for trading actual stocks, for that you need the non-leveraged Share Dealing account.

    • Like 1

  12. 3 minutes ago, OrangeJuice said:

    If I open a LIVE account can i Sharedeal (buy real shares) and CFD and SB with that single live account ?

    no, SB is just a type of CFD and a cfd is where you are trading contracts for the difference in the price between when you buy and when you sell, you are never actually taking delivery of any actual stock. 

  13. 6 minutes ago, OrangeJuice said:

    I have two trial accounts with titles CFD and Spread betting.
    When I open the CFD trial account, will all the stocks / indices be CFD's. Just that with other platforms, with a single account I can select between Equity / CFD.

    Also, when if I want to buy physical stock, do I also need to open a ShareDealing account?


    Hi, the SB and CFD accounts are basically the same but SB has some tax advantages, they both have the same markets to trade.

    And yes, to trade physical stock you need a share dealing account.