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Caseynotes

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Posts posted by Caseynotes


  1. The Indices start Monday heading back up the chart, not much in the way of data releases this week. The Chinese are heading back to work as China's oil demand has declined by 20% since late Jan (see chart). 

    image.thumb.png.4596d9831ca9b4bbfd556da7beee44f4.png

    image.thumb.png.e1ffae9481102bb5ce262ca39ffc2654.png

    image.png.87ac728aa32637ee28631588a220f05c.png

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    • Like 1

  2. 14 minutes ago, dmedin said:

    Massive job losses may not necessarily impact the stock market, because the rich are backed by unlimited free money from the central banks, and they don't give a sh!t how many ordinary working people lose their livelihoods so long as asset prices keep appreciating.  At some point though I'm sure the underlying weaknesses of the 'real' economy will become impossible to ignore, and yet another immanent contradiction of capitalism will create another crisis.

    https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-daimler-layoffs/daimler-to-cut-15000-jobs-as-cost-cuts-intensify-handelsblatt-idUKKBN2030N9

    er, the unemployment rate for the EU continues it's steady decline

    image.png.2cc1aff324b3f34092a82ed37ff3c6f9.png


  3. 9 minutes ago, dmedin said:

    Wherever you see the words 'where money is made' you should also add 'and where the most money is lost'.  There's a high correlation between certain pairs and I don't see any particular reason why you should 'expect' to make more money trading GPB/JPY than GPB/USD, a priori

    GBP is one of the few that does have volatility, the problem is it's due to the Brexit uncertainty and nobody really knows what's going on, for the last 3 years. What normally happens is that due to a nation's change in circumstance a pair need to realign, this can take weeks of trend to achieve but of late those occasions are far fewer. 


  4. 5 minutes ago, Lorinius said:

    Aye, valid points, and I'm aware of the demo account not being the real deal, I just want to take it slow and steady, and the fact that there isn't much action in FX I think for me its also currently a good thing, not looking to get rich quick this right now, I want to develop a system and then I'll look into more volatile markets. That being said, I just installed MT4, any good tutorials that you can point me to? The interface looks pretty dated.

    the problem is chop, chop just keeps cutting you up, you need price to swing. make sure you download the IG mt4 apps pack   https://www.ig.com/uk/trading-platforms/metatrader-4/mt4-indicators  

    and see this page for vids on what each one does  https://www.thinkmarkets.com/uk/tools/mt4-super/mt4-super-apps/

    Don't know any vids on mt4 off hand but a quick search on google should bring up loads.


  5. 14 minutes ago, Lorinius said:

    Thank you all for your insightful replies. Just a little more about myself firstly. I started trading at the top of the Bitcoin bullmarket 2017/18 where needless to say with all the bull action in alt coins it gave me an unrealistic expectation of trading, 200 euros turned int 5k in a matter of weeks with little to no research on the assets. Then the bearmarket started, the profits started to trickle down, still trading like a pile of garbage now that I look back on those days. Then my biggest mistake..I took 5k$ on a loan to trade some more and needless to say all of that money went away in a short period of time. Still paying on that until 2022. Upon further research, every analyst and pro trader tells it the same, that the worst time to get into trading is during bullmarkets...lucky me!

    This all really left a bad taste in my mouth but I'm determined to become a better trader, with 100$ I started trading my way up to about 500 now, starting to see progress, getting more composed about my emotions and am currently looking to develop a system. That brings me to you guys, in that, that I'm looking to trade much safer instruments like forex and stocks as Crypto is still in it's early stages and way too speculative, there is money to be made but I want to get a taste of the other global markets as well. 

    With Forex, my plan is to trade 1 year on a demo account until I'm consistently profitable and then start out with a live account of the same size. 

    @TrendFollower to address your questions, given the fact that I'm a begginer in FX, I was thinking to focus on EURUSD since it's the most liquid and has the most action, would this be suitable for a 1000$ account to start with?

    @Caseynotes I'm looking into MT4 as we speak, to set it up on my demo account and take it from there. 

    Thanks a bunch again guys, any other advice that you have for me, much appreciated!

    Interesting history, better luck I hope going forward. Couple of points, I wouldn't waste too much time on demo, you can't learn to trade on demo, it's ok for learning how the platform works and for trialing strategies but that's it really, it's like expecting to learn to drive with a car up on blocks, there is no risk and never will be. That's why I suggested the mt4 because you can start with pennies and work you way up.

    Second is that though FX might have liquidity there is currently no volatility and the many of the majors have been basically going sideways for over a year, consider commodities or indices. I posted recently on a CME report regarding this but can't remember which thread but never mind, take Rolf's word for it, exotics though usually have a high spread which will work against you starting off.

     

    image.png.d63e50294d21e912acd2469b59c5a9eb.png

     


  6. S&P YoY earnings growth, increasing.

    image.png.efe9e586018028f5e863f6feec0add4d.png

    Probability of recession decreasing.

    image.png.7bf3215273c9d30e3cb392d29a50803c.png

    (JPM)

    Global manufacturing PMIs in expansion.

    image.png.ab96bf4501bf52d990407307d1928a0a.png

    (Morgan Stanley)

    see no recession, hear no recession

    US recession fears have generally subsided, although there’s been some talk of a slowdown in payrolls and what that could mean. While things may have appeared a bit squirrely for a moment in December, jobless claims (our preferred dipstick for economic duress) have decelerated again, and as the chart below shows, the current period really looks nothing like what was seen in the past three recessions. (themarketear)

    image.png.9bcf35d27c320175c3b65f988102c2a5.png


  7. 13 hours ago, dmedin said:

     

     

    It'll take me several years to win back what I've lost from SB if I'm lucky, but I recouped all my losses on S&P 500 ETF within 12 months and would have made big profit if I hadn't sold off.

    yes as you know picking entries with hindsight helps but the chart clearly shows that for 2 years 'buy and hold' was not a profitable strategy and the weaker hands would have been flushed out, several times. B&H is more an investment strategy than a trading one, B&H is what you do on your 200k retirement fund, trading is what you do to try to get one.

     

    • Thought provoking 1

  8. 14 hours ago, HPbrand said:

    For the past 2 years, it appears to be more and more difficult for us retail traders to hit jackpot trades safely. Anyone have this experience?

    Going forward, I have decided to shift focus to mainly small profits through many trades rather than holding positions overnight. Less potential profits for sure on paper but safer and easier.

     

    14 hours ago, dmedin said:

     

    That's true.  A buy-and-hold S&P 500 ETF on the other hand would have done the trick nicely over the last two years.  One could even have made drawdowns far less painful by 'averaging' money in every month rather than investing in single, larger one-offs.

    image.thumb.png.5fdc21ea2741c21b433762849129cbc6.png

    Everyone can draw their charts differently but throughout this thread my contention was that this was a 2 year consolidation block (started with the start of the trade war) following the 1 and a quarter year uptrend (started after the Trump election). Because we entered the consolidation pattern in an uptrend that was always the most likely direction to breakout of it. To my mind we have only just broken out quite recently.

    So yes HP there was a need to check strategy and be more flexible trading for that very long period the market was unable to make new highs but that pattern was broken mid 2019.

    The chart also says that anyone entering a buy and hold strategy in the last quarter of 2017 would have spent a lot of time under a serious amount of water, not many would have held through that.

    Nothing works all the time, pick your strategy to match the chart (market) in front of you, always start at the top (highest time frame) and work down to the chart you intend to trade on.  

    • Like 1

  9. 14 hours ago, Lorinius said:

    Hey Guys,

    Every book or course that I read talks about position sizing, that you should not bet more that 1% or 2% per trade. Now here comes my question lets say I'm planning to start out with a 1000$ account. 1% of that would be 10$ is this possible on the IG platform? If yes please show me how.

    Thanks in advance for your time!

    Hi, good question. the answer is yes but no, new traders should use the absolute minimum trade size the broker will allow, with experience of not losing then think to step up to 1 or 2%. The risk on any trade is the amount of your stop loss, if  you are looking to trade on a higher time frame chart and the min trade size is £0.50 and your stop needs to be 20 points then fine but any bigger and then no. A 20 $/£ max stop loss really limits you to day trading which is not really for a novice, the H4 or daily chart is better but tends to need larger stops.

    The first and hardest lesson in trading is to learn how not to lose money, after that everything else is relatively simple.

    If you are learning then seriously consider using the IG MT4 platform where min trade size is just £0.10 (in UK) so then if you need a 50 point stop for higher time frame charts that's fine, mt4 doesn't have as many markets as the IG web based platform but you can learn to how trade on any market.


  10. 12 minutes ago, cheviot said:

    6 month 10 year yields close to inversion again !   That ll spook the poor little bullies ! 

    The bond market has been changing for decades now, new era economics. The yield curves don't look bad considering and definitely better than it did in Aug last year.

    image.thumb.png.e35a8323814b75941b6de52c52d9cfe9.png

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  11. 12 minutes ago, cheviot said:

    RSI in the 60 s ...MACD probably wo nt retest highs, but I believe that DJ 30 will set a test of 30 000 , it may fail....i do nt know but then chickens will come home to roost, pigs will fly and cows will come home....and the bears will do what we do best ....**** all over the lovely up trend hahahahaha !!!! 

    It'll be nice to short for a while, don't get much of a chance very often but I don't know, that treasury bond has come a long way since the lows way back in Aug 2019.

    image.thumb.png.6bc6dfe0528c7aa785054dade252566c.png


  12. 5 minutes ago, cheviot said:

    Dow in 5 th wave triangle 

    Short term 5 th wave triangle....High volatility.....differing push and pulls in the market....

    Dear bulls.....I aint saying the end of the world is nigh..... So do nt worry about deep long positions......go on holiday for a month......Bears need a play in the park from time to time......  427760460_WallStreet_20200207_12_47.png.0b3523bd214388e7dae254144b50f61b.png

    lol, but your MACD has just turned up again, 3 more months of uptrend isn't it? 👀

    • Thought provoking 1

  13. 58 minutes ago, dmedin said:

    yes the press gotta do what they gotta do, grab you by the fears and greeds.

    22 minutes ago, dmedin said:

    Trying to time the market’s declines and betting against more gains has been a losing strategy over the more than decade-long bull run in stocks, despite repeated worries about rich valuations and overexuberance. 

    yes as you know I had noticed, but what was everyone else looking at?  🛐✴️✴️🍄🍄🤩

    • Great! 1

  14. 21 minutes ago, andysinclair said:

    Thought I would take a closer look at oil. It's the usual story, here is the oil price (orange) vs client long sentiment (blue).

    As the price dropped from the start of the year clients have been loading up their long positions:

    57142501_oilsentiment.thumb.PNG.7d7de24c5be416aba8ba546f6a27c104.PNG

    as ever the usual story, the massive daily bear bar Jan 8th told everyone exactly what those who have the best resources and research thought of this market so retail do the opposite because, er, contrarian or something. And of course when proved wrong you should always revenge trade and double and even triple down lol.

     

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