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Caseynotes

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Posts posted by Caseynotes


  1. 19 minutes ago, dmedin said:

    Well the exit indicator one is simple - RSI (divergences in overbought/oversold zones).  It generates fewer, but higher quality signals.

    20/50/200 is fine for trend.  Trigger has to be the candles, the price movements (retraces, pattern of highs/lows and other patterns/shapes)

    🧐🤠🤔

    an exit indicator signals when to exit the trade, if there is no divergence there is no signal so not going to work, not looking for rarity but something absolute. Multiple inline and sloping MAs will work for a trend identifying indicator sure. The trigger also needs to be absolute, chart structure or pattern might provide context but isn't a signal in itself. One down 2 to go.


  2. 19 minutes ago, dmedin said:

     

    So what are all these TA books, sites, courses etc about?

    Either they are a useful aid to read the market at least sometimes or they are completely useless?

     

    Might as get my pet monkey to throw a dart for me ...

    🤔

    a pair of crutches is a useful aid, just not for someone with an arm injury who might then say these crutches don't work and they would be sort of right.

    an indicator needs chart context and structure to work with but people don't see that, they just go through a list of indicators chucking them at a chart to see what sticks but then find that what worked yesterday doesn't work today.

    so start with the chart first, look at the structure and context then think what job you need the indicator to do then select a specific indicator for that job.

    you will probably need a trend indicator and a trigger indicator and an exit indicator and it's highly unlikely you will find any one that does all 3 jobs.


  3. 2 minutes ago, dmedin said:

     

     

    So TA is really based on a hope and a dream 99% of the time.

    How does anyone make a living from this kind of thing? 

    I mean, fundamental analysis is also b*llocks (people pretending that 'value' is objective and can be measured), but it has the veneer of acceptability and you can charge people for your expert analysis and big reports full of statistics.

    not sure why you think the market should automatically respect anything you put on your chart. If I wanted to dump or buy a hundred million of whatever why would you think I should consult you first?


  4. 6 minutes ago, dmedin said:

    Can't argue with whatever works for the individual but for me personally, I don't see the 'added value'.  In Murphy's book he suggests PSAR with ADX and using the ADX as a filter (if PSAR says buy and DMI green above red then buy else don't), but this must only be of interest for people programming algorithms.

    the problem is that D+ and D- are doing the same job as PSAR, they are both trigger indicators neither is a filter, they are both either on up or on down.

    The A line is separate and is saying when to stay out no matter what D+ and D- is doing.

    • Like 1

  5. 11 minutes ago, dmedin said:

    But it whipsaws about so much (like many of these types of oscillator thingies) that you really have to rely on price (patterns, S/R etc) and this indicator ends up just being another distraction that people pay too much attention to.

    yeah but there is a need to filter out noise and a tool to keep you out of sideways choppy markets so whatever works for the individual really.

    image.png.738d942d3627091f579740c5f53a4b52.png

    • Thought provoking 1

  6. 9 minutes ago, Bopperz said:

    I do like ADX, its quite easy to see visually what the current trend is.

    However, ive had trouble when backtesting due to the number of combinations I can think of! DI+>20, DI+>DI-, ADX>20 and DI+>20 etc.

    Got a bit messy.

    The > 20 really applies to the average line (A, usually black) to indicate market trending (>20) or not trending (<20) and acts as a filter so you are looking to go long when D+ is above D-  and A is above 20.

     


  7. 4 minutes ago, cheviot said:

    I do nt think the recent sell off is China related.....I think its the shock that its outside China and not contained....i.e. Italy   S Korea Iran  etc.....  

     

     

    yes, outside China it's just getting started.

    • Sad 1

  8. 2 minutes ago, dmedin said:

    20 50 200 SMA is best, I also tried 5 20 50 and it's not as reliable.

    RSI is the most useful oscillator.

    The other **** isn't very useful (ADX, Directional Movement, Stochastics, the hideous MACD, volume, open interest lololol)

    depends on the job you are asking, trend direction confirmation, possible retracement bounce location or crossover trend change of direction. One set of MAs can not do all 3 jobs. The crossover MAs on the Dax chart above are the 3 & 8 linear weighted MAs. Choose the right tools for the job.

    • Like 1

  9. 1 minute ago, dmedin said:

    EWP can be made to justify anything because it's an attempt to impose a structure and is entirely subjective.  The Fib extensions (and retracements) are quite useful actually.  EWP is an attempt to try and 'predict' which way price will go.  But the Fib levels seem to work fine as simple S/R.  The Tradeciety ebook you linked to is very good and I doubt anyone really needs to use EWP to be able to trade.

    Fibs are used quite extensively I agree but you always need the price action confirmation, I personally find just looking for that confirmation between 40 and 60% retracement is good enough. Often the Fib 50% is a hit but oh wait, that's not actually a fib number is it.

    • Great! 1

  10. unfortunately the market doesn't care about opinions or predictions that's why watching Elliott wavers is such a hoot. get with the program and follow because you just don't have the capital to lead. 

    Dax trying a bounce off the weekly support level (red).

    image.thumb.png.ef388af7fe5dede0921238aedebba120.png


  11. 37 minutes ago, dmedin said:

    Back to being short, oh I am so dumb, I am so stupid, I am so hopeless.  :(

     

    what are you using as a directional indicator? a fast and slow ema will generally do it, you will miss the start of any move and give up some at the end but will catch most of the middle.

    image.thumb.png.3d97285e2036b5095bca4b3d909bda20.png


  12. 2 minutes ago, HPbrand said:

    Some believe OAPs have served their purpose. Lingering around is only a burden to government pension payouts. How convenient this virus helps solve one of society's aging problem.

    ah, so it did originate in a govt bioweapons facility after all 😳


  13. 14 hours ago, Ricky66 said:

    I am interested in using pro realtime for charting whilst trading via my ISA share account. I notice it says it costs £30 per month unless (it says in the T&C) "This is refunded if you place four or more trades a month." It does not specify the trades you have to place so I am assuming I could place four trades through my ISA share dealing account and I would be refunded the fee. IE am I right in assuming they do not have to be cfd or spread bet trades as it does not specifically say that? 

    Hi, you are likely to find that the helpdesk will be somewhat vague as well. IG have a value calc they apply. So any trades on any account make up the min 4 trades a month (buy and sell x2) and so long as you keep above that you won't be charged but IG might decide the value of your trades are not enough to justify you using the platform in which case they will contact you to warn they will start charging if you wish to continue on PRT.


  14. S&P looking to bounce up off 3214 while Dow clings to 28165.

    Interesting coronavirus stats starting to emerge in that the deaths are mostly in the over 70's age group in both China and Italy. The younger age groups seem to recover quickly and be discharged from hospital within a week.

    image.thumb.png.0185df4a03da1de5f984fa82ca45051e.png

    image.thumb.png.ae0184059e314f37dd776444f10cd52a.png

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