Enough Threats of a Currency War and You Find Yourself In One
It has been a common theme in the negotiations between the United States and the countries they have targeted for trade inequities that aggressive language has preceded tangible action. While both sides (the US versus the ‘World’) have been clearly willing to dole out the warnings, it has been the White House that has advanced both action and intimidation far more willingly. At this stage, we have seen the trade war level out som
Expected index adjustments
Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 8th July 2019. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect your positions, please take a look at the video.
NB: All dividend adjustments are forecasts and therefore speculative. A dividend adjustment is a cash neutral
Market sentiment: The prevailing wisdom in the market was challenged on Friday night, and it resulted in a small shift in fundamentals. US Non-Farm payrolls were released, and despite the overarching bearishness towards the US economic outlook currently, managed to exceed expectations. Granted, the unemployment rate ticked higher and wages growth fell. But the jobs change figure revealed a much better than expected 224,000 jobs were added to the US economy last month. The results naturally weren
A lacklustre night of market action: The Independence Day holiday in the US kept trading activity relatively thin. The ASX200 clocked another new-high, breaking the 6700-level for the first time since November 2007, led by a big, broad-based bounce in the shares bank’s stocks. Equity markets across the global generally eked-out gains for the day, while bond yield were reasonably steady. The Yen and Swiss Franc were the slight outperformers in the G10 currency space, while commodity currencies sl
Another record-reaching session: US stocks have notched-up another record high, as the S&P500 closes in on the 3000-mark. The ASX200 yesterday came close to its own psychological milestone, nearing the 6700-level. The highs came on a light-day’s trade on Wall Street, however, with US markets trading-in a shorted session in ahead of the Independence Day holiday. Currency markets were more volatile, with commodity currencies climbing courtesy of several positive trade balance data out of New Z
Stocks wander, bonds rally, oil tumbles: Equity markets edged higher overnight, however activity was generally thin, as fresh news and data proved lacking. Market behaviour suggests global growth concerns have returned to prominence: bond yields fell across the globe, with the yield on the benchmark US 10 Year Treasury note falling below 2 per cent again. Defensive sectors generally outperformed on Wall Street. Oil tumbled, while gold staged a bounce. And the USD was a little weaker, though it w
G20 outcome bolsters sentiment: Market activity was defined by a demonstrable lift in risk appetite yesterday. Stock markets rallied, especially in China, and the S&P500 touched new all-time highs. The Yen dipped, as did the Swiss Franc. The stronger Greenback combined with the lift in global bond yields knocked gold prices down below the $US1400-mark. And oil rallied – boosted, too, by the prospect of coordinated supply controls from OPEC-members at their meeting this week. While the positi
Monday’s Open: Trade Wars Status Quo That Really Isn’t
The G-20 Summit has passed and by the accounts of the key players, the results were encouraging. I guess no new fronts have been added to the global economic conflict after the two-day meeting, so that is a silver lining we can hold onto if we wanted to be optimistic to the point of true enthusiasm. According to President Trump’s account of his meeting with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping, their discussion was a success as it repor
Expected index adjustments
Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 1st July 2019. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect your positions, please take a look at the video.
NB: All dividend adjustments are forecasts and therefore speculative. A dividend adjustment is a cash neutral
G20 Summit goes to plan: Financial market participants will be relieved by the outcome of the Trump-Xi meeting at the weekend’s G20. They’ve effectively received what they’d been expecting: no-deal of course, but a pledge to restart talks and not increase tariffs in the interim. As has been discussed by many, this is likely to be just the latest chapter of what’s going to be an epic tale for US-China relations. And it doesn’t, in the shorter-term, completely remove the headwinds faced by the glo
G20 Summit begins: Market attention turns, almost singularly, to this weekend’s G20 Summit, today. There are numerous issues with significant financial market and global economic implications to be discussed at the event – the general concern about a global economic slow-down the overarching one. But of course, at the centre of everything, almost eclipsing the Summit’s primary purpose, is the highly anticipated meeting on Saturday afternoon between US President Donald Trump, and Chinese Presiden
Overnight action: Wall Street equities closed effectively flat, while bond yields climbed, commodities generally lifted, and currency markets shuffled into place, as markets continue to position for this week’s massive G20 meeting in Osaka. Market activity was relatively high, and sentiment does seem to be balancing on a knife’s edge: US President Trump flippantly suggested his “Plan B” from this weekend’s trade-talks is to slap on China “billions and billions” of more tariffs. Meanwhile, bond m
ASX edges higher: The ASX200 edged higher yesterday, as what is a technically overbought market recovered some of its Friday losses. Upside momentum has clearly cooled for the local stock market, ahead of a week heavily geared towards positioning for this weekend’s G20 meeting. Overall, it must be said it was a low impact and low activity day’s trade yesterday. Consumer stocks were most responsible for the day’s losses, sapping around 4 points from the ASX200, while Real Estate and bank stocks l
There is Way Too Much for the G20 to Cover
Typically, the G-20 summits that brings together leaders for some of the world’s largest developed economies cover matters that are important but not especially urgent. For the meeting in Osaka, Japan this coming Thursday and Friday (June 28-29), the members will officially and unofficially have to cover topics of exceeding importance. That would seem unusual considering we are still in the longest bull market on record and the closest state to ge
Expected index adjustments
Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 24th June 2019. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect your positions, please take a look at the video.
NB: All dividend adjustments are forecasts and therefore speculative. A dividend adjustment is a cash neutral
Other central bankers throw their weight around: After the US Fed exited the ring yesterday, some of the world’s other heavyweight central-bankers weighed-in on the global race-to-the-bottom for global interest rates. The BOJ met yesterday, and though they kept their policy entirely untouched, it Governor Haruhiko Kuroda affirmed his commitment to monetary stimulus if necessary. RBA Governor Philip Lowe also delivered a speech, in which he was explicit in his belief that lower interest rates wer
US Retail Sales capped-off last week: The climax of last week’s trade was Friday night’s US Retail Sales data release. As is well known, sentiment in the market centres around concern for the state of the global economy. As the biggest component, of the world’s biggest economy, US consumption data was hotly awaited to test the thesis that the global economy is winding down for another cycle. As it turns out: right now, those fears are very slightly exaggerated, if the US Retail Sales data was an
Expected index adjustments
Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 17 June 2019. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect your positions, please take a look at the video.
NB: All dividend adjustments are forecasts and therefore speculative. A dividend adjustment is a cash neutral a
It’s Okay, This One is On the Fed
There has been a notable shift in the market’s mood in just the past week. A sense of dull complacency that traders who were active during the first wave of the large scale, central bank stimulus infusions would recognize has bolstered key assets. After the benchmark S&P 500 and Dow topped at the beginning of May, a steady slide in the indices encouraged the same sinking feeling in conviction that was dependent on complacency. Evidence that we are the
Expected index adjustments
Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 10 June 2019. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect your positions, please take a look at the video.
NB: All dividend adjustments are forecasts and therefore speculative. A dividend adjustment is a cash neutral a
Aussie growth underwhelms: Australian GDP data was the highlight of the economic calendar yesterday. All-in-all, the data was of minimal impact, though it did for make big headlines: the growth rate came-in at 1.8 per cent on an annualized basis, as expected – the slowest rate of economic growth since the GFC. A poor print undoubtedly, but one that had been priced into the market well in advance. Hence, markets were little moved upon the release. The ASX200 hardly budged. The Australian Dollar l
Trump Using Mexico as a Trade War Warning to China?
In a surprise move, the United States is now fighting a full trade war on two fronts as of this past week. With the path to a US-China compromise still lacking any clear hand holds, US President Donald Trump announced a wholly unexpected economic move against neighbor Mexico this past Thursday evening. According to his tweet, the United States would charge a 5 percent import tax on ALL Mexican goods coming into the country as of June 10th
Expected index adjustments
Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 3 June 2019. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect your positions, please take a look at the video.
NB: All dividend adjustments are forecasts and therefore speculative. A dividend adjustment is a cash neutral ad
Risk-assets up, but trade was tepid: The overnight session was, on balance, positive for risk assets, though the conviction behind market-moves was missing. The S&P500 – the natural barometer for market-mood currently – experienced a middling day. It’s closed more-or-less flat, having made a failed foray higher throughout Wall Street trade, to have sold off right-below crucial resistance at 2800. For the bulls in the market, circumstances didn’t fundamentally change last night. The short-ter
Markets returning to normal trade: Traders in the US and UK returned to their desks overnight, and if price action is any guide, their verdict of the weekend news flow is “not much has really changed”. This isn’t to say the movements in financial markets in the past 12-18 hours have been ones of major conviction. Afterall, volumes are still light and the extent of the moves in price witnessed were modest. Nevertheless, despite what was notionally a tranquil weekend for financial market news, mar
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