Critical Fundamental Themes to Keep Watch For Next Week:
Volatility Slipping Back into Habit of Complacency as Liquidity Fills [Indices, VIX]
US-China Trade War – Beyond the Point of De-Escalation? [AUDUSD, USDCNH, Indices]
A Climb in Risk Appetite as More Fundamentals Fall Away [S&P 500, Dow]
Recession Warnings In the Market Converging with Those in Data [Indices, Yields, Gold]
Monetary Policy Ability to Stabilize Growth, Markets [EURUS, ECB, Fed, BOJ, G
Market Conditions in Data Overload
Markets often struggle for traction when there is a lack of a clear motivator such as meaningful event risk or an evolving systemically important theme. On the other hand, there are times when a surfeit of important events, indicators and headlines overwhelm the clear speculative picture, leaving us with an abundance of volatility without the benefit of a reliable course. We have dallied with this latter scenario these past weeks, but the constant redirec
Expected index adjustments
Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 21 Oct 2019. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect your positions, please take a look at the video.
How do dividend adjustments work?
As you know, constituent stocks of an index will periodically pay d
UK Parliament Votes to Delay Brexit Deal, Now What?
Heading into the weekend, overnight implied volatility behind the Cable and other Pound crosses had charged to their highest level in over two years. That reflected well the fundamental weight represented by the first Saturday sitting in the Commons in 37 years. Parliament convened to debate the government’s withdrawal agreement bill which Prime Minister Boris Johnson managed to hash out with European negotiators during the EU leaders sum
Expected index adjustments
Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 14 Oct 2019. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect your positions, please take a look at the video.
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Is This a US-China Trade War Turn We Can Rely In?
The market was struck with a broad sense of enthusiasm through the second half of this past week. There were a number of developments – or expectations for forthcoming events – that contributed to this buoyancy. The theme stirring the most optimism was anticipation that the United States and China were finally making progress in their 15-month trade war. Just before the New York close on Friday, officials announced that indeed they had foun
Markets spinning in circles as trade-talks get underway: It’s been a slightly dizzying 24-hours for the financial markets. Speculation is on overdrive regarding the likeliest outcomes for the US-China trade talks. Though it seems like chaos, it all amounts to little more than noise, as short-term traders have fun with trying to profit from the swings in sentiment. Fundamentally, little about the talks can be known yet. However, it seems investors’ cautiousness is turning to hope once again. Amid
The Trade War Spreads to More Critical, Global Growth Organs
We have been unofficially engaged in a global trade war since March 2018. That is when the United States moved forward with a tariff on imported metals (steel and aluminum) from any destination outside of the country. Since this opening salvo, there have been small actions against countries outside the singular focus of China, but the incredible escalation between Washington and Beijing has drawn most of the global attention. Wit
Expected index adjustments
Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 7 Oct 2019. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect your positions, please take a look at the video.
Special Dividends
Ind
Expected index adjustments
Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 30 Sept 2019. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect your positions, please take a look at the video.
Special Dividends
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Politics and Markets
There are numerous, open political fissures around the world – including the approaching Brexit deadline; the ongoing flux of Euro-area stability and Chinese social pressure arising from economic concerns. Each of these represents significant headline fodder both within their respective country as well as in the international press. Yet, as many newspaper column inches or top headlines in online news aggregators these issues may represent, they don’t naturally adapt to
What are Central Banks Attempting to Achieve at This Point?
Over the past two weeks, we have seen major central banks loosen the reins on monetary policy or otherwise set the stage to move further into unorthodox policies. The most notable moves were made by the European Central Bank (ECB) and Federal Reserve. The latter cut its benchmark by 25 basis points to bring its range down to a high level of 2.00 percent – though it maintained its increasingly dubious position that it expects no fu
Expected index adjustments
Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 16 Sept 2019. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect your positions, please take a look at the video.
NB: All dividend adjustments are forecasts and therefore speculative. A dividend adjustment is a cash neutral a
And Now, the Fed
The market has monetary policy on its mind heading into the new trading week thanks to the actions of the European Central Bank (ECB) this past Thursday. One of the world’s largest central banks, the group is making a bid – perhaps unintentional and perhaps not – to be the most accommodative group of its size. Already sporting a negative rate, a large balance sheet and a T-LTRO program; President Draghi steered his team back into an expansionary phase of dovishness despite
The Global Importance of the ECB Rate Decision
Top event risk - both for concentrated volatility potential for its local currency and global influence via systemic means – over the coming week is hands down the ECB (European Central Bank) rate decision. Under normal circumstances, the monetary policy decision by the world’s second largest central bank is occasion for significant response from local currency and capital markets. For the Euro, the event is made far more potent at this partic
Expected index adjustments
Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 9 Sept 2019. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect your positions, please take a look at the video.
NB: All dividend adjustments are forecasts and therefore speculative. A dividend adjustment is a cash neutral ad
Expected index adjustments
Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 2 Sept 2019. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect your positions, please take a look at the video.
NB: All dividend adjustments are forecasts and therefore speculative. A dividend adjustment is a cash neutral ad
Is Trump Responding to the Dow – and Would He Prioritize Index Over Dollar?
This past week generated another heavy round of criticism from the US President. In both ad hoc press conferences and tweets, Donald Trump scrutinized a number of economic and financial hurdles that he believes is threatening the health of the US economy. The most familiar critique continued to target the Federal Reserve and specifically its Chairman, Jerome Powell. Trump took to the wires to levy blame against the
Expected index adjustments
Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 26 Aug 2019. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect your positions, please take a look at the video.
NB: All dividend adjustments are forecasts and therefore speculative. A dividend adjustment is a cash neutral ad
Reckless Acceleration of the Trade War
With the global (including the US and China) economy already straining under the weight of the ongoing trade wars, the two largest individual economies too steps this past week to leverage the pressure even higher. As expected, China felt it necessary to respond to the upgraded efforts announced by President Trump on a staggering $300 billion more in Chinese goods – the ‘rest’ of the country’s imports that weren’t already facing a tax. It seems the Wh
Expected index adjustments
Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 19 Aug 2019. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect your positions, please take a look at the video.
NB: All dividend adjustments are forecasts and therefore speculative. A dividend adjustment is a cash neu
Jackson Hole Symposium Has Too Much to Cover
There are two particularly important, multi-day summits scheduled for this coming week. Given the individual market-moving capacity of US President Donald Trump, the G7 Summit from August 24th through the 26th will be particularly important to watch. He has announced remarkable change in policy at or around such large events before – particularly when provoked by flabbergasted global counterparts. There are five general topics on the agenda whic
Expected index adjustments
Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 12 Aug 2019. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect your positions, please take a look at the video.
NB: All dividend adjustments are forecasts and therefore speculative. A dividend adjustment is a cash neu
Is Trump Intentionally Stirring Market Volatility?
The dust is still settling from the most recent string of reciprocal retaliations between the US and China in their ongoing trade wars. As a brief synopsis, the White House frustrated by the lack of progress in negotiations as they were due to break for a month announced August 1st it would slap a 10 percent tariff on the remaining $300 billion in Chinese goods that it was not already taxing. China responded the following Monday by letting
Stocks recover losses on rate-cut hopes: Wall Street equities climbed into the close, after an ugly open for the US market overnight, while global bond yields continued to fall, on increased bets of interest rate cuts from the world’s largest central banks. When market action is still foggy, it can be hard to draw firm conclusions about cause-and-effect in price action. But it would strongly seem that the latter was responsible for the former during last night’s trade. Hence, US stocks were up o
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