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THT Market Education - How to WIN


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1 last post - couldn't help myself!!!

Simple 1 x 1 Gann Angles projected from the high/low price points - I'll admit that this is ultra advanced trading stuff here, the message here is two-fold

  1. The markets regardless of what you think or have been told are NOT random, they HAVE no choice but to work out a pre-set course according to their growth or decay
  2. Gann Angles are far far better at identifying support/resistance levels - BECAUSE the market or specifically price action is NOT 2D, we can clearly see price conforms to a grid system movement - that ain't 2Dimensional!

You could blindly trade those gann angles if you have the right level of expertise and knowledge of them - look at the blue circles - price rallied then fell back to them and bounced pretty accurately, they won't all work and the highest swing high is under threat at which you can't project further levels from

Again here's the secret of success - you could of skewed the R value into your favour by having a 20/25pt stop underneath, trailed a stop and made fantastic R value returns

Gann said over 100 years ago "Markets are financial points of force and that EVERY low/high is connected to another low/high point of force in the FUTURE, as well as in the past" As you can clearly SEE - he was absolutely right - very few people look at the markets right, when you do you see things completely differently to most other traders/investors

There's some real science behind markets moves - I might do a post in future months as understanding what is actually going on helps you see through the fog and makes things a bit clearer 

I'll admit I've studied Gann for years and it is not easy, it is very hard to grasp - he hides hidden messages in his course that can throw you off for months and when you to apply his methods some just do not work

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  • 1 month later...

Right - Here's a very highly profitable and highly accurate trading method - misuse it and you'll lose as with any method!

I've personally used this for over 10 years very successfully on multiple markets trading ETF's in my SIPP and ISA

You CAN massively **** this up - It does NOT work in ALL market conditions - I'm showing you how it works in an UPTREND - it performs differently in a downtrend and a sideways market!

Charts shown are the DAILY Nasdaq100 Index:

This is how you use an Indicator properly and with precision

There is no other Indicator better than the 2 period RSI Indicator for Identifying market cycles of price in the market

The best thing to do in an UPTREND is to BUY the DIPS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

They KEY to this is having a method for knowing when an UPTREND is starting, in play and potentially ending

Here's what out old friend WD Gann says "The safest place to buy is on the second reaction following a down trend" - (This is the 1st black up arrow on the chart)

"Watch out for a change in trend when a correction EXCEEDS BOTH in time and price any correction of the previous trend"

Remember - markets won't always trend like this either - the only way you're going to know is by being in it!

How would you of guessed the Nasdaq100 would trend?

You wouldn't but you WOULD of known that following a 30+% correction the obvious direction is upwards bias, remember the USA stock markets have a bias upwards - so does the FTSE250 index - Then end of March as I'm polishing off another slice of birthday cake market rallies from the lows, retraces 1 bar, then rallies 2 bars, then retraces causing a higher swing low than the low of March  = making a secondary reaction swing low AND the 2RSI trade set-up signal = possible change of trend from down to UP - which is what happened

If this set-up up is of Interest to you are going to have to Investigate it - markets don't trend nice and flowery as I've shown below

Also note - as previously mentioned in this thread - you define a trending a market as having higher highs and higher lows

As you can SEE - the ONLY trade (not marked on the chart - I'll let you find it) that you would have got stopped out on was 3 bars following the highest high on the chart 

8 winning trades out of 9 (The win rate is NOT always as good as this shown!)

IMPORTANT:

In a corrective pullback of a few bars - 2RSI will be FALLING - It will NOT have ticked upwards until the trade has triggered and you're long into it!

The tick UPWARDS of 2RSI IS CONFIRMATION of a cycle LOW - the MINIMUM expectation is of a price close HIGHER than the swing high preceding the cycle low - as you can SEE, this happened in EVERY occurrence 

Ignore the reversals in 2RSI above 25% level - They signal the half cycles and generally give less bang for your buck

You'll notice I've not mentioned targets or selling prices - UP to YOU, how you trade it

As this is a very very high probability trading method - I like to trade 2 units (i.e. 4% Initial risk) Sell 1 unit at 1-2R just in case we're wrong! and then let the other unit just run, placing the stop under each valid swing low point until stopped- by that I mean the swing low confirmed by the 2RSI - Then pyramid the position with each new signal if funds permit

If you do the above with a SB then the 1st unit needs to be a daily DFB type and the 2nd unit a longer futures contract

What you should notice is that most of the time when you are WRONG your buy order entry WON'T trigger (the market is likely to make lower lows and lower highs as it pullback), the typical pullback for this is 4 bars max, any more and its odds on the trade will get stopped if you're taken in - If this happens WAIT until the next swing UP forms a secondary reaction low and then start again

Also - SOMETIMES the 2RSI does NOT make it <25% on a secondary reaction - these secondary reactions are in themselves another very high probability trading opportunity in their own right without an Indicator

"Skew the Risk:Reward into YOUR favour (which is a KEY to winning) and you'll make decent returns from the markets" I've mentioned and shown the WORST stop placement for you by skewing reward to you this would be improved

There is NO logical sense in having a stop more than 1 price bars range from the low of the set-up bar to the high of the set-up bar - if price goes below the set-up bars low then the trade would be VOID

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Details: just showing you 2 trades here so not to clutter the chart with lines

Green = Entry level + 1 penny

Red = Stop placement level -1penny (worst case)

How many other methods do you know that get you into a trade within 1-2 bars of the actual low?

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Further.....

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Check out the 2017 trending section too and the messy 2016 period - you can ONLY trade what the market gives you, sometimes its messy and other times such as 2020 its perfect - that's why Patience is a KEY to success

Now in UPTRENDS - that are VERY FAST this method will not register a <25% 2RSI reading - there was a very fast price rise in Oct 2014 where price just kept 2RSI >40 - nothing you can do here but watch or have other trading methods to trade during fast markets

Kudos has to go to Walter Bressert (RIP) who published details of cycles and using RSI to identify cycle lows etc and WD Gann who over 100 years ago was trading secondary reaction points 

People think that today's markets are different to 100 years ago - they are NOT, the very SAME market formations show up time after time after time - Secondary Reaction points are just 1 of them

DISCLAIMER: - You are 100% responsible for your own trading - no liability can be attributed to THT if you **** up a perfectly workable trading method, If in doubt then do not take a position! If you cannot make money in 1 year trading this method then I would take stock and quit trading, some rip off merchants would charge you £1,000's for a course/method like this

Hope it helps

Happy Trading

THT

 

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Here's the settings to fix for the slow STOCHASTIC Indicator to match the 2RSI Indicator - the only diff is the lower level line for the Stoch needs to be @ 30     

All Indicators do is tell you past momentum of price bars and ultimately show the same thing  - using it to identify cycles in the market is a unique technique 

UPTRENDS = Higher Highs and Higher LOWS along WITH a CLOSE above the prev swing high

DOWNTRENDS = Lower Highs and Lower LOWS along WITH a CLOSE below the prev swing low

Also NOT all Indicators are the same regardless of what they are called on a trading platform - which could result in mis-reading of said Indicator - It's up to you to make sure it's as accurate to what is required as possible

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Thank you, I've really enjoyed this thread.
On the RSI-2 strategy I saw a similar one from Larry Connor, except he suggests a very low RSI level of below 10, and only trading it short-term until the price is back above the 5MA - this is a very tight trade and in reality in UK markets I don't see how that could be profitable, even though it has a high probability, as you are grabbing such small gains.

Back to my actual question. I assume you have tested your method in downtrends, using the reverse strategy of RSI2 above 75 and selling below the low of the trigger bar.? Not had chance to look at that, but will do over the weekend.

Thanks again.

Edited by Monions
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3 hours ago, Monions said:

Thank you, I've really enjoyed this thread.
On the RSI-2 strategy I saw a similar one from Larry Connor, except he suggests a very low RSI level of below 10, and only trading it short-term until the price is back above the 5MA - this is a very tight trade and in reality in UK markets I don't see how that could be profitable, even though it has a high probability, as you are grabbing such small gains.

Back to my actual question. I assume you have tested your method in downtrends, using the reverse strategy of RSI2 above 75 and selling below the low of the trigger bar.? Not had chance to look at that, but will do over the weekend.

Thanks again.

You're welcome, thanks for the comment

Yes I could never get Larry Connors RSI2 to work as the UK markets aren't set-up for ultra tight trading - I think with his method too if you remove the stop it improves hit rate too, I might be wrong as I last read Street Smarts about 8 or so years ago

DOWNTRENDS:

Test it - It's not a direct inverse of the long only method - The reason for this and why I didn't show it, is depending on where you are in the overall cycle of the market will mean you'll need to trade this differently 

When the long term direction of the market is UP - corrections won't last long - you can't let profits run to the downside, you'll need hard and fast price targets or a defined trailing stop

As the market will always fight upwards - stock market that is

You need to define what a downtrend is and for how long, as it will work >75% (2RSI) but if the downtrend is a quick event you'll not have many signals and you do run the risk of being stopped out much more frequently than the long method

Give me a few weeks and I'll write another thread on how to trade it in down trending and sideways trading ranges/markets etc as its not exactly an Inverse of the Long method

I don't want to bamboozle with too much info

Watch this space....

 

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Did some work over the weekend!

The main Idea with 2RSI is to catch the cycle turns in the market - notice the "triangles" that show up at times and in varying shapes of triangle/arches - the reason these aren't perfect is your viewing multi-dimensional price and time data forced into a 2 dimensional price chart

Rather than bog you down with the markets, just have to have a pre-established method for determining if a market in in an UPTREND / DOWNTREND or going SIDEWAYS and then trade according to what condition you think the market is in

As you will see in the trade below the market was "potentially" transitioning from up to down, but in the end it didn't, HOWEVER, the R:R was more than acceptable to have a crack - bear in mind I'm showing R:R worst case on the charts, in reality you can easily DOUBLE it, so a 3R profit potential trade then becomes 6R+ for 6R anything is worth a crack/punt

If you do that you will be able to effectively trade 2RSI in those market conditions - In UPTRENDS buy the dips only and in DOWNTRENDS sell the rallies - In a sideways range you can do both buy the dips and sell the rallies

the thing to remember here is that if you're using the 2RSI correctly you WILL catch the cycle turns and that means that the high or low of that cycle turn whichever it may be WILL be the high/low bar of it until the cycle ends and the next cycle forms - notice how when trading in the right market condition's you're very rarely caught out by a "stray" stop, this is BECAUSE you're catching the high/low of the cycle!

Obviously at some point you're going to get caught out - but this is trading, you need to manipulate the risk:reward into your favour to offset such times

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Not all violations of a swing low change a trend, but they DO open up some short trading opportunities for you - see very recent action in the Nasdaq100 below

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Zoomed in chart of the chart above:

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Chart below shows a temp downtrend in an overall up trending market - lower highs and lower lows are the confirmation, but remember when trading we are always best guessing the blank space to the right of the chart, all I can show you is perfect conditions to utilise the methods - you WILL get caught out occasionally, its just part of being a trader which is why you HAVE to accept losses will happen!

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Next swing:

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Next swing down: Here's a decision you have to make about how you trail stops as too tight and you'll easily miss the trade potential, too loose and on other trades that don't hit target you'll end up giving profits away! If its a genuine downtrend then by the laws of nature the prev swing low HAS to be hit - HAS to be

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Right Targets:

IF you trade 2RSI correctly, in the right WAY in the right market conditions and you improve on the stop placement shown which means you'll improve the R:R significantly, then you will not be too concerned about scrabbing for a few extra R profit as you'll be making enough profits not to be too concerned

Swings often make 100%-200% of the prior swing - it is IMPOSSIBLE to know what % level price will stop on - so here you need to decide in your trading plan what level if any you're going for and devise risk management around it - as you can see in these charts sometimes levels are hit, other times they're not - also you will notice that once the swing lows are hit sometimes theres a big retracement in the opp direction followed by % levels being hit

I personally make enough from Rvalue profit that I don't often chase the % target levels - its entirely your choice

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Next

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Last chart in shorting post

Read this carefully as there's 2 projection methods on this chart - 100+% retracements of the UP swings and then 100+% projections of DOWN swings projected from the high of the trade in question

In this case if you chased the projections you'd be well rewarded - once the swing low was hit only a small retracement occurred then crash

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I don't want to confuse you too much as lots has happened in this post - make sure you get your head around it 1st

In the 2 charts above you could have trade 3 units - sold 1 unit @ 1-2R profit to ensure a profit, sold another unit @ the swing low price target and then used the 3 unit to trail loosely down aiming for those price targets

Up to you - there's no real right or wrong way to do this - as we've seen sometimes price targets get hit, other times they don't, but you sit there thinking "If only" when they hit and you're not in on it

This is for DOWNTRENDS - as downtrends aren't like uptrends, especially in the stock market as its natural bias is to go upwards!

In the stock market uptrends you can let unit 2 just run as the profit returns when this happens (which is often) MASSIVELY outweighs the limitations of doing this method in a non-trending sideways market  - as you will see in the next post on sideways market - unit 2 doesn't work that good

Again this is why you need to know exactly what you're doing trade wise before you even enter a position and just follow your rules

For example-  If I have a holiday or time away for days coming up from the market, then I will only trade 1 unit and use targets of the swing high/low, but if I'm not away from my screen then I will trade 2 units   

and its up to you to trade markets in the conditions you want - that's your job as a trader to seek out

DISCLAIMER: - You are 100% responsible for your own trading - no liability can be attributed to THT if you **** up a perfectly workable trading method, If in doubt then do not take a position! If you cannot make money in 1 year trading this method then I would take stock and quit trading, some rip off merchants would charge you £1,000's for a course/method like this

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SIDEWAYS market / trading range:

ANYONE telling you that you cannot trade professionally and profitably using an Indicator, quite simply does not know what the hell they are talking about

REMEMBER - VERY VERY few people actually make money trading, even fewer manage to make a living from it

As with EVERY trading method out there - proof is in the pudding

Notice the swing lows were often NOT exceeded - especially by the % ratios I've previously mentioned that happen in uptrends and downtrends - REASON IS market condition has changed

For those of you like ME and want to know WHY = You are now viewing price action either "square on or very nearly square on"! In uptrends and downtrends the price action is "twisted" away/towards our view as viewed from on a 2 Dimensional price chart!

NOTICE all the very near perfect double/triple bottoms and double/triple tops - If we could "SEE" price action square on then it would do this all the time, bumble, bumble, then whoosh up/down, bumble, bumble, whoosh etc!

This is WHY you NEED a trading method/rules for an UPTREND, a DOWNTREND and a SIDEWAYS market - because price acts differently in each one of them!  To start with, have all this info in mind, but just trade one market conditions, become an expert in it, then and only then move on to the next market condition, do the same, then the next then once you an expert in it you will see opportunities within 3 seconds of looking at a chart, know the market condition and be able to formulate expectations followed by trades that WIN and are PROFITABLE

I just love using swing high/lows as my trend identifier simply because it works!

Notes under the chart:

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This one had a slight upwards BIAS

Right I've labelled the sideways action swings:

# Blue 1 = This would be traded as a uptrend as its Gann Secondary reaction and long trade - it worked and you'd of been stopped out on a trailing stop as the prev swing high was never exceeded or closed above
# Blue 2 = Even though the perceived trend was UP - this one could have been shorted as it is a Gann Double TOP potential which turned out to be right - target = #1 low, not reached came within 1 point of the low! 
you'd of been stopped out on a trailing stop
# Blue 3 = Double Bottom, you'd of traded this long - you'd of been stopped out on trailing stop - this is your warning that a sideways range could be forming - the confirmation of the cycle and swing high in 
between #3 and #(A) is warning that market could be in a range - you would Not have traded short this mid swing high as with DB's you expect the trend to continue upwards
# (A)      = Triple bottom - you'd of also traded this long, the close above the prev swing high (not labelled) suggests long side has the bias - you'd of been stopped out on trailing stop on this trade
# Blue 4 = Although this turned out to be a triple top and you could have gotten away with shorting it in reality it was not strong enough for me to be a triple top even though it turned out to be one! Catches us all 
out sometimes!
# Blue 5 = Gann says 4th time @ same level and it usually goes through - I had a short on that triple bottom, it was not touched and as we had a 2RSI cycle low in = long trade - this was a messy one and you'd of 
been stopped out of the trade a couple of times - However, we now have a a confirmed triple bottom with a failed 4th time lucky trade that did not trigger causing a higher low or secondary reaction point @ #5 and if 
price rallies we also have a triple top in place and Gann says 4th time at a level and it should go through, so we want to be in that 
# (B) = short trade = stopped - this would have triggered the 4th time lucky trade long when stop hit = rallied up to # Green 1
# Green 2 = long as secondary reaction trade = stopped on trailing stop
# Green 3 = double top = short (yes we can have both a active long and short in place
# Green 4 = double bottom = long = stopped on trailing stop
# Green 5 = no trade
# (C) = triple bottom and we go long
# (1) = No trade as expected direction is long 
#(2) = Long = secondary reaction again - stopped on trailing stop
#(3) = you could have risked a short here, but in reality no trade as you'd be thinking long direction 
#(4) = Long = stopped - price gapped and you'd of been stop for a loss
#(5) = Short - double top - stopped on trailing stop as #(4) was not reached
# Black a = Long secondary reaction low - stopped on trailing stop
# Black b = Short - stopped on trailing stop as # Black a swing low not reached
# Black c = Long double bottom = stopped on trailing stop
# Black d = the range formation is now very well established so as its a double top short - price target hit @ # Black c low
# Black e = Long - stopped out for loss - then long again as price diverges with the Indicator - technically this would NOT be a trade taken in a trending section as you've got a violation of a prior swing low, BUT as 
we are in a range those rules go out the window as its clear price is trying to rally throughout this multi month sideways market = stopped out on trailing stop
# Black a = no trade trend was up good so assumption is long uptrend starting but not on a secondary reaction
# Black b = Long = Secondary reaction - stopped on trailing stop
 

Also note that the **** of WD Gann from the 1930's does actually work

It also poo poo's those traders or would be traders on here that say you can't make money from daily charts - just massively proven that you can within in this thread as all the charts are daily charts - If a market does not give enough opportunities per year, guess what you do? Trade multiple markets! or you could also drop time-frames again its all up to you as the trader

DISCLAIMER: - You are 100% responsible for your own trading - no liability can be attributed to THT if you **** up a perfectly workable trading method, If in doubt then do not take a position! If you cannot make money in 1 year trading this method then I would take stock and quit trading, some rip off merchants would charge you £1,000's for a course/method like this

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Shouldn't have to do this - and I'm unlikely to be do this much going forward, but as I'm making claims, they need to be backed up by factual evidence

Trade one is a what you could class as a Gann Secondary reaction that fired off the other Friday 2nd the market is ISF which is the ETF of FTSE100 Index

Now this trade did NOT meet the 2RSI criteria for the trade, It is however another method that I trade and it was that set-up that got me into the trade which happened to be also a Gann 2ndry reaction 

There was also another Gann Secondary reaction that the 2RSI failed to meet in early August - The tick UP above 25% with an Inside Bar is OK to trade too but you need the swing high taking out fast 

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Proof of trade = Unleveraged inside a normal trading account SIPP account

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Trade Two is another Gann Secondary Reaction in the GOLD market, taken this one as a SB - This is now @ BE and will trail the stop up  or target hit

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THT

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Thank you for adding the extra posts around downtrending markets. This is an interesting strategy which I am testing at the moment. I usually use a Stochastic.MACD combination to determine entries, the 2RSI approach should compliment those nicely.

Thanks again for your time in putting this together.

 

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3 hours ago, Monions said:

Thank you for adding the extra posts around downtrending markets. This is an interesting strategy which I am testing at the moment. I usually use a Stochastic.MACD combination to determine entries, the 2RSI approach should compliment those nicely.

Thanks again for your time in putting this together.

 

No problem, your welcome

 

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2 hours ago, Navarone said:

Really appreciate the input THT. I'm not a trader but it intrigues me. Maybe one day I may try. Burnt badly on crypto in the early days but have since learned to take a step back and look at the bigger picture.

Thanks

Never looked at crypto - your welcome

Happy to help

Markets are doing something entirely different to what most people think they are doing, so it pays to take a big step back and view the bigger picture then drill down 

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Hey THT, Reading Gann atm, it's very nineteenth century reading and quite heavy going...  for 2020  his notes suggest market and stock highs...... as markets can be viewed as cyclical does that not suggest 2021 US Indices will be lower? Question being how high can or will the US indices go? Are we currently at resistance before reversal or resistance to the upside, with more market euphoria in the wings upto new all time highs beyond the 30000 for the Dow even up to 31000+- 500? My personal bias is the peaks have been hit and resistance will prove too much; translating to  bearish trends, where there may be sense in buying, then selling the "dip"....However, I have been consistently confounded by the Dow movements. Less so FTSE which has behaved pretty much as expected and has failed to weather the nexus of Covid and Brexit (potentially bad and hard) and lost a full 30% from market highs in Feb 2020. It could go much lower... US equities (Dow) have lost 3% by comparison. 

To return to markets, I appear to understand (Oil and gasoline) am generally bullish over the medium and long term. (Counter to equity).  Suggest there may be a shift to commodities when equity fails to shine. Bear in mind also there has been an irreversible shift between how people live and  how and where they work, how they purchase (bye bye cash) what they value and what is of value. (USD anyone?No I'll take gold thanks, or bitcoin?). A paradigm shift. Folk are going into equity because it is seems to be the only game in town (it isn't) and there seems to be pent up tensions that need to be released, so equity seems the only logical answer.  Even if earnings are down 20% year on year, for example. It's counter intuitive. Big time. Just curious to hear your thoughts.

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11 minutes ago, 786Trader said:

Hey THT, Reading Gann atm, it's very nineteenth century reading and quite heavy going...  for 2020  his notes suggest market and stock highs...... as markets can be viewed as cyclical does that not suggest 2021 US Indices will be lower? Question being how high can or will the US indices go? Are we currently at resistance before reversal or resistance to the upside, with more market euphoria in the wings upto new all time highs beyond the 30000 for the Dow even up to 31000+- 500? My personal bias is the peaks have been hit and resistance will prove too much; translating to  bearish trends, where there may be sense in buying, then selling the "dip"....However, I have been consistently confounded by the Dow movements. Less so FTSE which has behaved pretty much as expected and has failed to weather the nexus of Covid and Brexit (potentially bad and hard) and lost a full 30% from market highs in Feb 2020. It could go much lower... US equities (Dow) have lost 3% by comparison. 

To return to markets, I appear to understand (Oil and gasoline) am generally bullish over the medium and long term. (Counter to equity).  Suggest there may be a shift to commodities when equity fails to shine. Bear in mind also there has been an irreversible shift between how people live and  how and where they work, how they purchase (bye bye cash) what they value and what is of value. (USD anyone?No I'll take gold thanks, or bitcoin?). A paradigm shift. Folk are going into equity because it is seems to be the only game in town (it isn't) and there seems to be pent up tensions that need to be released, so equity seems the only logical answer.  Even if earnings are down 20% year on year, for example. It's counter intuitive. Big time. Just curious to hear your thoughts.

I would not use his cycles - Gann wrote a huge amount of his work veiled in secrecy or double meaning - a lot of what he wrote doesn't work - but some of it does on his basic form reading - I've disclosed most of it in this thread above - I have left out though a couple of the more profitable methods as I've not seen then produced anywhere else - the methods above are highly profitable if you use the right Risk and stop placement

I DO use cycles, but I use my own that I stumbled upon when trying to get Gann's cycles to work (years of testing here) - you'll get very frustrated if you blindly follow Gann's courses on cycles, as you mention some of it is heavy going - that's because he isn't telling you the full story, he gave you part of the key

There's been a few (I've never been a member) very serious Gann dedicated online work groups who have tried to crack his code and ended up wasting years of time - don't waste your time down that route

For cycles I ONLY look at the most speculative freely traded stock market which is the USA markets and specifically the NASDAQ100 Index - check out my Time Cycle thread I posted the other week

The reason the markets defy common logic is that they will work out in accordance of the time cycle  - I've not published on here, but the markets will over the next 14 years be going UP UP and UP - obviously that will not be in a straight line - I might be completely and utterly wrong, but for the past 228 years the USA markets have been conforming to certain cycles and sequences and I fully expect that to happen going forward as long as the USA markets are the worlds leading market for speculation, which the Nas currently is and has been since 1999

I accept and understand that lots of this completely goes against most conventional wisdom on the markets, but then again if conventional wisdom drives the markets why do 95% of would be traders end up failing!

Gold or gold backed money will eventually come good, once the powers that be figure out a way to profit from and control it as they have producing fiat currencies and debt

I don't want to publish my cycle material on this thread - It will completely confuse people learning how to beat the game - I might expand on the Time Cycle thread I published the other week, as when you understand the cycles that control the markets all that confusion about what the market will do next evaporates - That does not mean it is possible to predict the day to day or month to month moves of the market! It means that it is possible to know when the market will experience big turns like 1987, 2000, 2003, 2007, 2009 etc which for some people are worth knowing - but you can still make money fro the markets not having a clue about it as well

Reading Gann you might come across his "Wheat 120" trade of 1909 - I have absolutely no idea and I know of no-one who has ever been able to replicate that prediction to this day, so either Gann had 1 massive lucky call or that information is still buried, so you have to be really careful with Gann

THT

 

 

 

 

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Hi THT, thanks for the reply and info. Am interested in the 369 progressions and note that Tesla had a similar sympathy  for 369. It's not exactly light reading, but fortunately he (Gann) was not writing under the influence of narcotics, in secret, like Nostradamus. Sepharial, also found useful keys, that he then obfuscated and sold. Strange, early nineteenth century trends; discovery, paranoia, followed by obfuscation into meaninglessness. Thing is, as the old adage goes " you can take a horse to water, but they might not drink", which is valid for all information, teaching and learning. If you are ready and receptive then it is easy, if not, no chance.  Any how am quietly, slowly working through it. 

As for  US Equities going UP and Up and UP over the next 14 years, it is consistent with modern trends of US equity over the last 20 years. One has naturally not mentioned the corrections (which is where the really big profits can be made).  For example, selling equity in Feb 2020 and repurchasing same equity in early April 2020 would have returned a gain of 37% in 6 weeks, holding them for 6 months would have returned another gain of 54% vs just holding and a gain of net zero. Shorting Oil in Feb and repurchasing same in April, a return of 200%..... that which goes up, will want to go down, it is the nature of things. Which I suspect which is what Gann was suggesting and presenting a working formula to explain said movements, much as Tesla was hot on the vibrations of 3,6 and 9....

Am still not convinced of the value of the Dow atm, and feel at the least, it should return more to its 20 and 50 day moving averages (28000+/- 150) sooner than later (by Friday), but more realistically fall 3-5% in the near future. Otherwise, it's on track to break out and exceed all time highs and head higher into the clouds, which seems like bad timing  atm(pardon the pun).  Either way would suggest the Dow is in for another whipsaw roller-coaster until the completion of this election cycle. As for Oil, go long, people will start flying and moving again and the price will return to more normal levels Q1-Q2 2021 (Brent @$60) and beyond. Short term, wait until next Monday to go long, as oil futures move more or less in tandem with US  Equity futures and suspect and expect some volatility this week.

That said, have a fine day and hopefully manage to make a little profit.🙂

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1 hour ago, 786Trader said:

Hi THT, thanks for the reply and info. Am interested in the 369 progressions and note that Tesla had a similar sympathy  for 369. It's not exactly light reading, but fortunately he (Gann) was not writing under the influence of narcotics, in secret, like Nostradamus. Sepharial, also found useful keys, that he then obfuscated and sold. Strange, early nineteenth century trends; discovery, paranoia, followed by obfuscation into meaninglessness. Thing is, as the old adage goes " you can take a horse to water, but they might not drink", which is valid for all information, teaching and learning. If you are ready and receptive then it is easy, if not, no chance.  Any how am quietly, slowly working through it. 

As for  US Equities going UP and Up and UP over the next 14 years, it is consistent with modern trends of US equity over the last 20 years. One has naturally not mentioned the corrections (which is where the really big profits can be made).  For example, selling equity in Feb 2020 and repurchasing same equity in early April 2020 would have returned a gain of 37% in 6 weeks, holding them for 6 months would have returned another gain of 54% vs just holding and a gain of net zero. Shorting Oil in Feb and repurchasing same in April, a return of 200%..... that which goes up, will want to go down, it is the nature of things. Which I suspect which is what Gann was suggesting and presenting a working formula to explain said movements, much as Tesla was hot on the vibrations of 3,6 and 9....

Am still not convinced of the value of the Dow atm, and feel at the least, it should return more to its 20 and 50 day moving averages (28000+/- 150) sooner than later (by Friday), but more realistically fall 3-5% in the near future. Otherwise, it's on track to break out and exceed all time highs and head higher into the clouds, which seems like bad timing  atm(pardon the pun).  Either way would suggest the Dow is in for another whipsaw roller-coaster until the completion of this election cycle. As for Oil, go long, people will start flying and moving again and the price will return to more normal levels Q1-Q2 2021 (Brent @$60) and beyond. Short term, wait until next Monday to go long, as oil futures move more or less in tandem with US  Equity futures and suspect and expect some volatility this week.

That said, have a fine day and hopefully manage to make a little profit.🙂

That's EXACTLY how buy and holders should Invest - the corrections are the best places to be buying/selling

Don't go down the predictions route without acceptance of open eyes - its fraught with danger and huge frustration

To compare what to expect from the Nasdaq100 look back to 1949-1968 and 1982-2000 - It should do something similar - I think both periods returned 1000+% growth ish

There's a sequence of UP/DOWN price general rises that run to a cycle of 16-19 years (Gann NEVER ever mentioned this cycle) when looking back the markets make sense when you view them in the right sequence/section - so for example - 1966-1982 was a DOWN section, followed by an UP section 1982-2000, then 2000-2016 was a DOWN section - we're now in the next UP section which MUST be a growth section - might not seem it right now, but when we look back from 2034 it will definitely have been up

Happy Trading

THT

 

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Short SP500 - Weds 14th Oct 2020

Double Top with 2RSI <75% - DAILY Timeframe

25 point stop - this stop is already @ breakeven 

Do we KNOW this will work and reach target? NO BUT we do know that if we do this on EVERY trade potential lots of them WILL and it is THAT, that makes you the % growth

Now we basically Ignore the Indicator from now on and adhere to risk management rules to manage the trade

Those are - Leave alone for 2 trading days, then protect open profits with a trailing stop until stopped or target hit

417.thumb.JPG.fc1a38f5703846a35f3373085d4dff90.JPG

Proof of trade - I've just taken this as a DFB contract, Depends on how quick the trade lasts for it might have been more advantageous to have selected the next months futures contract

 Also I've taken the trade assuming a account value of £2k - risking just 2% of that £2k = £40 for the trade

Target on the chart = 9.57R potential

Worst case we have now is a scratch trade, but the upside is a very healthy nearer 10R profit potential

418.thumb.JPG.bdf0213e8c87bb9fe5888c6b9e5a0883.JPG

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On 15/10/2020 at 09:25, THT said:

Short SP500 - Weds 14th Oct 2020

Double Top with 2RSI <75% - DAILY Timeframe

25 point stop - this stop is already @ breakeven 

Do we KNOW this will work and reach target? NO BUT we do know that if we do this on EVERY trade potential lots of them WILL and it is THAT, that makes you the % growth

Now we basically Ignore the Indicator from now on and adhere to risk management rules to manage the trade

Those are - Leave alone for 2 trading days, then protect open profits with a trailing stop until stopped or target hit

417.thumb.JPG.fc1a38f5703846a35f3373085d4dff90.JPG

Proof of trade - I've just taken this as a DFB contract, Depends on how quick the trade lasts for it might have been more advantageous to have selected the next months futures contract

 Also I've taken the trade assuming a account value of £2k - risking just 2% of that £2k = £40 for the trade

Target on the chart = 9.57R potential

Worst case we have now is a scratch trade, but the upside is a very healthy nearer 10R profit potential

418.thumb.JPG.bdf0213e8c87bb9fe5888c6b9e5a0883.JPG

Stopped out overnight for a SCRATCH / BREAKEVEN trade

Think this could roll into next week before it becomes clear on whether the DT is valid or whether we are in fact heading to highs

What we have now is a bullish situation in the opposite direction! The trend from 24th Sept = UP, 3 bar pull back/correction WITH a PIN BAR and 2RSI <25% in the reversal zone

Next trade set is LONG above 3495

I am worried about the potential DT but we have a valid trade setting up that we've taken many times before successfully, so my "thinking" is:

  1. We could have a reversal to the highs and poss more = long trade
  2. This could just be a temp pull back in the start of a downward trend =This WILL form either DT or a gann secondary reaction to which a short trade can be established from (for this the 2RSI for me does NOT have to hit >75% - I will take the position based on price action form)
  3. The Double Top (DT) could still happen
  4. If the long trade is triggered then if #1 and #3 happen there's enough movement in price to get my stop to BE - if the long trade triggers and #2 is occurring then i might suffer a full 1R loss - happy to take the risk!
  5. The WEEKLY Indicator is Overbought - but this happens in uptrends too as well as DT's/reversals etc so little weight is given to this at the moment, however, it will roll over IF price declines
  6. We've now got a correction to the mini uptrend that is greater in both time and price than any corrections throughout the uptrend - This could be signalling tops in or close to being in

The KEY is to be adaptable - I don't care about being "right" all I care about is that I get onto the move whether its up or down and the driver is price action NOT the Indicator

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  • 1 month later...
  • 5 weeks later...

There's a huge amount written about Fibonacci - The guys at Elliott Wave love it, but misuse it as do most EW'ers - there is no doubt that trading patterns, pullbacks and extensions do conform to fib ratios often (not all the time though!) such as some Elliott Waves, Gartley and Harmonic Patterns

Back in the 1920/30's WD Gann wrote about the 50% level being the gravity centre - Please note that the 50% retracement level is NOT a Fib level - Here it is in recent action

Expand your thinking - If you are trying to work out the markets and what you know so far is not working, then something else must be happening - If markets were truly random, do you think that they'd land on these numbers so frequently!

Nasdaq100 Index DAILY chart below:

You can see both plunges/corrections respected the 50% retracement level

432.thumb.JPG.2c6f5327be9ec68ff760043166c8294f.JPG

Chart below is that of the SP500 Index over many years - you can see clearly just how important these 50% retracement levels are on the big/grand scheme of things

433.thumb.JPG.772af7ffa1be01eb81c97e684404f8b2.JPG

In this thread I have shown you charts of Time Cycles - I have also published a separate Time Cycle thread for greater detail and I've shown you Gann Angles

Piece the Gann angle and Time Cycle charts together, match them up with Nasdaq100 chart shown in this post and notice that if you could have of had the gann angle and the time cycle on your chart months in advance, then your job as a trader would have been to reset the 50% levels after every new high 

Then when price starts to fall if all 3 come together it offers exceptionally high probability turning points for which you could buy the market or options at or around

Obviously this does not happen all the time and the 50% level is sometimes of the range or a set of ranges NOT of the all-time high (those like shown in the 2nd chart happen at certain points and certain time cycles) 

You don't need to be aware of any of the above to make money from the market - I just like to know and rationalise what the market has done and that helps me to rationalise the most likely next course of action

Good luck on your journey

THT 

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Just come across all your posts THT, very insightful thanks. If nothing else for me it's showed me I'm out of my depth and don't yet understand markets. Perhaps this will encourage me to actually learn from others and not to think I know what I'm doing as clearly I don't. The fact you have such tight stops amazes me but goes to show is possible when you read the markets correctly. Trading is a mad world from the outside looking in.

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10 hours ago, u0362565 said:

Just come across all your posts THT, very insightful thanks. If nothing else for me it's showed me I'm out of my depth and don't yet understand markets. Perhaps this will encourage me to actually learn from others and not to think I know what I'm doing as clearly I don't. The fact you have such tight stops amazes me but goes to show is possible when you read the markets correctly. Trading is a mad world from the outside looking in.

Some of the above is ultra advanced stuff and I bet 99% of people out there aren't aware of it and more to the fact how it's derived - Do not let that stop you, you don't need to know the advanced stuff to trade profitably and consistently

I don't 100% understand markets - I can't tell you what price level a market will stop at - I've yet to meet anyone that can say markets going to hit this exact level then reverse x points and then........ It cannot be done exactly and due to that issue trading and Investment becomes best guess and probabilities take control of things

In trading if you make a claim, it needs to be backed up and evidenced in a post/article etc in advance of the event - some of that I'm doing in my posts/threads

The 1st page of this thread is the KEY part

Trading is a long journey and bruising education along the way!

Good luck on your journey

THT

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  • 2 weeks later...

I really trade!

Here is a trade from this week - The Market is an ETF of the Nasdaq100 Index provided by ishares - CNX1

This was a 2 day Swing trade

If you've read the above posts then this is a clear DOUBLE BOTTOM following all the rules mentioned in the posts above

ENTRY - Entry was actually set for the high of the Inside bar but the market gapped up and opened at the GREEN horizontal line! which was fine

As you can see the DB caused a classic W shape if fulfilled - 2RSI in the <25% Oversold zone = 1 high probability trade potential with target of the swing high of the long leg of the W - as you can see price hit that level this afternoon for a healthy return - This provided a 2R return, "IF" (and we have no control over this) I'd of been triggered in at the high of the Inside bar as planned rather than the gapped entry, the R:R was 4R if stop placed at the swing low or 11R if entry was high of the narrow range IB and stop was at the low of it! - Now in this trade - the intention was the 11R trade but the Gap caused a change of plan

THIS IS WHY I TRADE BECAUSE OFTEN THESE TRADES COME OFF INTENDED AS PLANNED - this one didn't but it was still a half decent trade

437.thumb.JPG.d990a47891dbf0d76f2366c2c8c93a4c.JPG

To prove the position - I won't be doing this ever again - very NEARLY got the high!

438.JPG.138e5941ef62754d58b722b6ae30e1df.JPG

You can SCAN the market EVERY DAY for NARROW RANGE bars - and then when they conform to trading method you employ they offer an ultra high probability trading opportunity with ultra high returns 

 

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Hello

If you've read the thread so far, you should be under no doubt that 1) I trade and 2) I'm good and 3) I know more than the average Joe out there

This post is VERY ADVANCED

The hardest part of this post will be getting your head around the concept I show - the actual method is all but a few clicks of a mouse on a chart

I've got to be careful in what I publish because its free and there are unfortunately rip off sharks out there who will rip off someone else's work and sell it as their own - so this is not complete, there's aspects "missing" I'm afraid

All the below is FREELY available because it is all there on the chart - all I'm using is MATHS and price data

Ignore the fact that I've talked about Time Cycles in previous posts - Time Cycles do RULE the market, you will know that at the Dec 2018 low and the FEB 2020 high Time cycles were projected and due, so we knew in advance potential change in trends could occur then and it DID! What I'm going to show you exists within and in between of these Time Cycles

The chart below shows you Price aspects and also TIME aspects that were projected from the Dec 2018 Time Cycle LOW - notice how PRICE & TIME levels in the grid actually HIT the 2020 LOW too!

I have said in previous posts that you NEED to view the markets in a different perspective - this is one of them! Open your mind and just think

I do not care what people say about the markets - they operate on a grid system and that grid system is based on the Triangle, Square and Circle - in other words the markets conform to GEOMETRY and GEOMETRIC shapes

From the Dec 2018 LOW - it is evident that the first SQUARE ran from the low to 3rd May 2019 (this is the highest CLOSE) before it had its 1st decent correction 

So we take the number of Trading DAYS in TIME and the price in actual pence and use them to construct out SQUARE (Green Square) - this contains price and also time

We then subdivide that square by halving it and it creates 4 smaller squares within the large green square - We then simply copy that square up and over to the right

We KNOW that price and TIME are conforming to this SQUARE because price followed the 45 degree angle of the large green square - Gann said "Once Price and Time balance - the trend changes"

The trend changed in May 2019 and a ABC correction ensued down to swing point A

(Please NOTE - once swing LOW A is in Swing HIGH B could have been projected EXACTLY - not shown and Swing HIGH C hit not only to the DAY but to the PENNY in price too (You need to do another squaring system to obtain that though - not shown)

Just look at how price follows the squaring lines

Also notice that in March 2020 Price fell to the BLUE line that was a split of the 1st large green original square we used for the past 12 months price and time action - It actually slightly over-ran that price level, this is what WD Gann referred to as "Lost Motion" in his works from the 1930's

This is just one method for working out squaring and squares and there is NO way to know in advance whether a market is going to use this method or one of the other squaring methods

If you're sat there reading this with an open mind you should be partly blown away by this on many levels - the next chart down should blow you completely away!

If all you take away from this - just remember financial markets are NOT random

Now the same squaring system/range does not work all the time I'm afraid - so you have to have various methods on the go all the time to see what is syncing - remember I've said in past posts that price and time are dynamic and NOT static - they do I'm afraid "shift" which keeps us all on our toes

Chart is Nasdaq100 Index - DAILY chart

441.thumb.JPG.4144815b60ad12e5e82c7297c52bc37e.JPG

OK so we have our 1st large square from the Dec 2018 LOW to the May 2019 HIGH - Price then corrects to swing LOW A - This is ALL you need to absolutely NAIL the HIGH at Swing HIGH C

(Notes: Swing A is CONFIRMED once a CLOSE happens above the May 2019 swing high)

Using another squaring method you'd of known swing low A was the bottom because it landed pretty much bang on 50% price level of that square) anyway,

Same chart - look at the OLIVE Horizontal line at Swing HIGH C

Now some basic MATHS - A Square has 4 sides, it also has a diagonal line that intersects the corners of those 4 sides - that DIAGONAL is calculated as the square root of 2 which is 1.4142 times the length of a side of the square

PRICE swing of the 1st big square (Dec 2018 - May 2019) of 1946.38 Times/multiply this price figure by the square root of 2 (1.4142) = 2752.57 and then project that 2752.57 price figure from the swing LOW A and you get the OLIVE Price level at Swing HIGH C - How amazing is that!!!!!!!!!!!!

Please, please, please do not let the fund management guys tell you you cannot time the markets- because you CAN or let anyone tell you the markets are random - they just ain't!

  442.thumb.JPG.2f04c49c6d2324b0865abbcbc3448a23.JPG

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Just focussing on basics..............................

All mentioned in the posts above in this thread

2nd reaction, Double Top, Triple Top, Double bottoms, 2 Higher Lows etc

There's a DB not shown (located in between arrow 2 and 3) you'd of been stopped out of this once but it worked 2nd time, also there's a very near 2 Higher Lows in Dec 2020 that formed but didn't trigger

Also I think I've mentioned the Inside Swing trade previously - this formed after arrow 3 to the downside

I've not highlighted the SHORT 2ndry reaction right in the middle of the chart (Nov 2020) (worked on 2nd attempt)

10 trades set up, 12 entries, 2 losses, 80% win rate on that chart - R value was greater than 3R

These methods WORK - I have months ago shown you very basic trading methods that work, they return high R values if you get the risk right too

The chart below is of the ETF that tracks physical SILVER (PHSP)

447.thumb.JPG.91d1930a5f4adfa5ff65e005d26e55ca.JPG

Here's a recent Gold short that I made recently:

448.thumb.JPG.42fcf92789200a5ad592a8772710ed2f.JPG

with the returns:

440.thumb.JPG.a7251ac930af3155cbe5811f73219a40.JPG

 

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  • 1 month later...

Ultra simple - as detailed in this thread many times

Market rallies, pulls back causing a SECONDARY REACTION - Again this is a method from over 100 years ago - Gann first published it and then RN Elliott cottoned onto it in the 1940's (EW 2 or B)

All winning positions resulted in multi R value returns 

As mentioned at the start of the thread - change your perception of the market and things become a bit clearer

Safe Trading

470.thumb.JPG.52cb7a4a63a3455e4fc74351fc08905d.JPG

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Ever wondered how you catch the LOWS like a pro?

Let me show you!

All text above a chart relates directly to the chart immediately below it

BP - showed the secondary reaction the other week - which was a good trade - now I'll show you how to catch it as close to the turn as possible - using INDICATORS!

474.thumb.JPG.81e8d45d3f322eaabe9dcf7078d9a3c9.JPG

Lets look at the WEEKLY BP chart

Great trading set-up appears

The entry point at #3 would have been 268.06

Logical stop is 1 penny lower than the low of the bar labelled 3 - WHY? Because if we are catching the turn, this bars low should not be reached, to be ultra safe the bar labelled 2 low is the safest point as that would be the swing low point should this trade work out as planned and as we can see that is exactly what happened

475.thumb.JPG.03381fed4d8e06c79d264ecab461e4b9.JPG

Now lets drill down to the DAILY chart

We KNOW for a fact that the daily price is going to rise if our analysis of the WEEKLY chart is correct

Now those who believe in support and resistance and "supply zones" will tell you the market found more supply when it retraced back to the zone it bounced from a few weeks prior - That might be true, if it interests you, then it could be something you explore

In the chart below and the whole of this post this is EXACTLY how I viewed and traded this inside my SIPP

As you can see the very next day/bar it was squeaky **** time as it very nearly stopped out - but it didn't - what if it had?

then Point C and 1 would have been moved to that bar - remember the WEEKLY higher time-frame should be bottoming out

476.thumb.JPG.b729767f03b381029f993d164e65a5f0.JPG

The logic of the trade is catching lows, if we are right the produce many R value returns

As you can see the R value was 6-7R if a straight target of the previous swing high was used or you could be still trailing it - choice is yours

As in the post prior to this one - you COULD have then pyramided the position when the Gann Secondary Reaction appeared for more R Value!

477.thumb.JPG.833c0db656c1e42e9fdcd62d46ceb111.JPG

So why did this trade work?

  • We had a reversal down into a major retracement level - a Gann gravity centre which is 50% (This is NOT a Fib level)
  • We had a oversold 2RSI on BOTH (This is KEY) the WEEKLY and DAILY charts - when 2 different time-frames are in agreement price often moves to a decent degree
  • It was quite frankly a high probability turning point, especially with the sideways price consolidation in the days that followed 
  • We weren't blindly trading an Indicator - you will often find when the trade set-up is wrong the price high level is NOT exceeded - we used the Indicator to pick out the trade potential, price then had to confirm, unless we would not have taken the trade

What about the ADX DI Indicator? - didn't use it! It would trigger positive after we're in the position and confirm the thinking - but when it triggers positive on a weekly chart, you typically get a half decent rally

You can apply the same logical trade method at ALL the major retracement levels such as Gann and Fib levels as long as everything is in place

 

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I first came across this pattern in Joe DiNapoli's "Trading DiNapoli Levels" book years ago

RAILWAY Tracks

You want this formation to appear at decent pullbacks, tops or extremes - for it to be really worthwhile and when they show up on WEEKLY charts they can be exceptionally profitable

Some don't form perfect patterns - this is because you're viewing face on to a chart and price and time aren't doing that, so you will need to build in some artistic subjective licence if you trade them

SP500 Index DAILY chart:

479.thumb.JPG.c8c11e54daccc60e8a9fb21c5427a92c.JPG

Nasdaq Index WEEKLY chart:  They appear on weekly timeframes too!!

480.thumb.JPG.fcf38551eb637bcf14f2a30c51523697.JPG

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