NDX

[HMB]

Should wait for the close, I guess, but this NDX correction looks much less violent than the moves of major indices in March.  Narrative that it's mainly "froth" being "removed" seems to make sense.  Also the claim that this move includes dealers reducing large delta-hedges for calls sold recently to retail.

Given that, the distance from ATH to low today should be enough... or not?   Long with stop below today's low.

[dmedin]

I agree, already showing signs of big buying pressure.  What happened in March was totally different.  It's more like what happened in June.

[HMB]

3 minutes ago, dmedin said:

I agree, already showing signs of big buying pressure.  What happened in March was totally different.  It's more like what happened in June.

Thank you dmedin

[Kodiak]

Nasdaq monthly

10 year trend channel

Aggresive call buyers made it go "thru the roof"

Will the parabolic move continue or is it back in the channel again?

I would say back in the channel, but with all the stimulus and manipulation going on who knows?

As long as the upper trendline holds (support) i suppose buy the dip continue?

[HMB]

4 minutes ago, Kodiak said:

Will the parabolic move continue or is it back in the channel again?

I would say back in the channel, but with all the stimulus and manipulation going on who knows?

As long as the upper trendline holds (support) i suppose buy the dip continue?

good point!  personally, I believe back into the channel - and possibly towards the lower trend line given rich valuations and said parabolic run - but not immediately.  expecting dip buying first, with return to somewhere between 50 and 80 percent retracement - I may of course be wrong (I usually am...) 

[HMB]

...above 23.6 fib again... looks like a bit of stop hunting earlier... 

[HMB]

Kudos to who waited for a retest of the Friday intraday low

[HMB]

opened an additional NDX long (DFB)  at 11238, minimum size (0.5), stop 11181 (guaranteed).

[HMB]

(looking at price action the last 30 minutes, and considering the drawdown before, I'm willing to make a small bet that there might be a bit of a rebound - over the next 30 minutes or so) 

[HMB]

43 minutes ago, HMB said:

(looking at price action the last 30 minutes, and considering the drawdown before, I'm willing to make a small bet that there might be a bit of a rebound - over the next 30 minutes or so) 

finally, through pretty stubborn resistance at around 11260...

Edited September 8, 2020 by HMB

[dmedin]

13 minutes ago, HMB said:

finally, through pretty stubborn resistance at around 11260...

Is it going your way?

It does look like everything (indices, gold, oil etc) is making a strong bounce.

Don't know if it will keep going back up all the way but it's totally different to March when it simply fell and kept falling.

[HMB]

2 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Is it going your way?

It does look like everything (indices, gold, oil etc) is making a strong bounce.

Don't know if it will keep going back up all the way but it's totally different to March when it simply fell and kept falling.

the first long NDX (opened Friday) is deep in the red.  price oscillating around the entry of my 2nd long NDX the last hour.

Tesla is messing it up...  GM partnering with NIkola - Nikola up 48%, Tesla down 17% today last time I checked... 

I agree with you (again), doesn't look like March to me either.

Although I could well imagine an NDX selloff from a higher level later today, or over the coming days, to extend the correction a bit.  I also see a significant probability of a downtrend for a while.

guess we will get a better idea today - was it really mainly Softbank closing long calls, and what will they do now...?  

[HMB]

..raising the stop of the 2nd long - and the risk of getting stop hunted.. -  opening another NDX long with min. size (0.5 GBP/point), same stop (11211) - like the six green 1 min candles in a row...

[HMB]

(..but I'm ready to close the two new NDX longs any second if it turns abruptly lower, just almost did after engulfing red 1min candle..)

[HMB]

closed the two new longs.  (net profit 6 GBP or so - should get me a few fresh face masks...) 

[HMB]

will try a bit more scalping for now I guess (will skip the real-time updates - apologies for these..)  

[HMB]

...this looks very much like stop hunting to me..

[HMB]

...Wall Street first narrowing the range, and then hitting all the fresh stops after on both sides... 

[HMB]

I'm likely of course wrong, but looks to me like the stop hunting on the downside stopped..

[HMB]

1 minute ago, HMB said:

I'm likely of course wrong, but looks to me like the stop hunting on the downside stopped..

yea, I was wrong..

[HMB]

...but now...😉😎

[HMB]

still not!  unbelievable..

[HMB]

...sadly this looks a bit like Thursday/Friday...

[HMB]

stop hit.  and of course I had raised the bet before several times....  realized loss 440 today.  60 left for the week...

[dmedin]

7 minutes ago, HMB said:

stop hit.  and of course I had raised the bet before several times....  realized loss 440 today.  60 left for the week...

Flying by the seat of my pants personally...

[HMB]

4 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Flying by the seat of my pants personally...

You too?

[HMB]

At least if we close here, it's a proper close to close more than 10% correction.  never trade NDX too aggressively against the overall intraday trend before a STRONG reversal and don't start before 2:30pm NYT...  (think I had that written down somewhere). 

[HMB]

using the last 60 for a new long NDX (future) stop 11025 - for lack of better ideas...

[HMB]

4 minutes ago, HMB said:

You too?

 

10 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Flying by the seat of my pants personally...

or you meant I do in your opinion?  yea. you're absolutely right.  maybe the "outing" here helps me to be more conscious about it.  but I think it's simply weakness of character at this stage.  probably taking a break, quitting smoking, losing weight, getting into a regular exercise routine etc. would be necessary.  I'm kinda exhausted from the frustration, but on the other hand used to it by now.  strange journey...  

[HMB]

thanks for your feedback!