NDX

[dmedin]

Don't listen to other people or let the news influence your trading decisions.

I know it's difficult, because I've made three mistakes outside of my plan already this evening, being influenced by people on Twitter.

Sh!t.

[HMB]

+111 at 16:12:00

[HMB]

10 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Don't listen to other people or let the news influence your trading decisions.

I know it's difficult, because I've made three mistakes outside of my plan already this evening, being influenced by people on Twitter.

Sh!t.

so what are you gonna do next time?  ignore news? 

[HMB]

my biggest mistake today was to miss that this last move was actually the close...!  completely forgot about time.  I would have expected to have made that mistake 20 years or so ago - but well, instead it had to be today.  went long extremely fast - and of course too early...  embarrassing - and not cheap.. 

[dmedin]

9 minutes ago, HMB said:

so what are you gonna do next time?  ignore news? 

Does that surprise you?

 

[HMB]

Just now, dmedin said:

Does that surprise you?

 

was a genuine question, but I guess the answer is yes?

[dmedin]

7 minutes ago, HMB said:

was a genuine question, but I guess the answer is yes?

Well the answer is yes ...

If you are backtesting a strategy, do you look at historical news events or do you just go off your system?

So if you don't do it historically, why do it in live trading?

[HMB]

1 minute ago, dmedin said:

Well the answer is yes ...

If you are backtesting a strategy, do you look at historical news events or do you just go off your system?

So if you don't do it historically, why do it in live trading?

Yes, I agree.  If that is your approach, then it would be inconsistent to deviate under any circumstances.  ...which some cynical, ignorant loser might btw label an inherent weakness of strategies that can be back-tested....

strictly speaking its also wrong, of course one could maybe try to come up with a scoring system for the news - e.g. Covid outbreak in China eight bearish points...  Mnuch meeting Nancy one and a half volatility point...  something like that.  for sure there are algos/AI which do that and backtest it constantly... 

 

As a human you can only ignore it...  

 

[dmedin]

3 minutes ago, HMB said:

which some cynical, ignorant loser might btw label an inherent weakness of strategies that can be back-tested....

Who, me?

The premise of TA is that everything gets reflected in the price (and to a lesser extent volume).

Knowing of upcoming 'events' helps to prepare you for potential spikes of activity, but that's it.  And there will always be events that you are not aware of and that you cannot prepare for.

 

[HMB]

7 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Who, me?

The premise of TA is that everything gets reflected in the price (and to a lesser extent volume).

Knowing of upcoming 'events' helps to prepare you for potential spikes of activity, but that's it.  And there will always be events that you are not aware of and that you cannot prepare for.

 

no, it wasn't you I had in mind with that characterization - but someone much closer to me...

obviously you today saw reasons to deviate from the strategy.  now you say you never want to do that again. 

an alternative would maybe be considering this as an experiment, that confirmed (even) under today's circumstances, you should have stuck to the plan - so you've learned something about your strategy which is an improvement.  and accept that you might be doing similar experiments in the future, and fine-tune your strategy in this sense.

in my case today was the opposite - it was probably the first time that I managed to stick to one rule of my relatively recent plan.  I had already managed to stop chasing losses, but today I think was actually the first time I managed to not chase lost winnings..  

so don't be too harsh to yourself - if occasionally you deviate from the plan, consider there are people for who sticking to the plan is still a rare occurence...   

 

 

[HMB]

with stimulus deal "pending", I wouldn't wanna go short into the weekend at this level...:

(sorry to the fib enthusiast for the rounding...)

[HMB]

long increased

 

 

Edited October 2, 2020 by HMB
(stop of 2nd trade lowered 11250)

[dmedin]

Hmm.  I'm short on U.S. Tech 100.

[HMB]

5 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Hmm.  I'm short on U.S. Tech 100.

where is your stop?  above 11400?

Edited October 2, 2020 by HMB

[dmedin]

5 minutes ago, HMB said:

where is your stop?  above 11400?

11490  I'm hopeless

[HMB]

3 minutes ago, dmedin said:

11490  I'm hopeless

should hold tonite...  stimulus risk till Monday...  

Edited October 2, 2020 by HMB

[HMB]

you were right - why were you short?  I expected a bit if a rebound after this underperformance

[HMB]

(I completely got carried a way the last ten minutes - made like 50 trades with stop distance 2...  and then 4 with 10 - all hit.  stupid, but could be worse, at least small sizes.  I need to avoid the last hour or something, when I turn into a slot machine player...  2nd time in an otherwise okay-ish week.)

[HMB]

..at least now I know it doesn't always have to be guaranteed stops - the normal ones worked well even into an a bit volatile close

[dmedin]

15 minutes ago, HMB said:

you were right - why were you short?  I expected a bit if a rebound after this underperformance

 

I don't go lower than 15 mins chart (where you can clearly see the bearish turn).  1 minute seems to be for extreme scalping and for people who can afford to bet £10+ per point, so bagging 5 - 10 pips is worthwhile

Edited October 2, 2020 by dmedin

[HMB]

4 minutes ago, dmedin said:

15 mins chart (where you can clearly see the bearish turn)

....clearly...  when did you see it..?

[dmedin]

Just now, HMB said:

....clearly...  when did you see it..?

 

[HMB]

...meanwhile..:

[dmedin]

When?  Oh I let it run out to my stop loss.  . When my stop loss got hit I was spooked and closed my Wall Street trade, but that trade would have made me money if I'd left it

 

[HMB]

2 minutes ago, dmedin said:

 

thanks:  that seems indeed to have worked recently...:

 

 

[HMB]

4 minutes ago, dmedin said:

When?  Oh I let it run out to my stop loss.  . When my stop loss got hit I was spooked and closed my Wall Street trade, but that trade would have made me money if I'd left it

 

good NDX trade - forget about the Dow trade.  you had your reasons to close it, if they are usually valid, it was right

Edited October 2, 2020 by HMB

[dmedin]

Wtf is that?

[HMB]

(closing all trades without guaranteed stops)

[HMB]

...pre-market consolidation with further establishment of support around 11450, I'd hypothesize...:

Nancy, Steve, anything...?

 

 

[dmedin]

What's the state of play, Rumpelstilstkin?