DAX

[HMB]

short at 13186.9, stop at 13225.  minimum size.  looks relatively quiet.  drop earlier accelerated after h&s pattern formation with declining neckline - rebound stopped below right shoulder level.  no significant news.  don't expect  US consumer price release to have much impact on Dax. Expecting US starting to give back most of their overnight gains before open - and pulling Dax down with them.  medium conviction. semi-experimental trade.  (risk 20 quid).  if it moves in favor, review at 13130 the latest.  if not, staying out of DAX for today.

 

 

[Caseynotes]

4 minutes ago, HMB said:

short at 13186.9, stop at 13225.  minimum size.

good luck though that's a pretty strong run back up to the pivot, wouldn't be willing to bet against it myself. certainly if the Dow heads lower dax likely to follow.

[HMB]

3 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

good luck though that's a pretty strong run back up to the pivot, wouldn't be willing to bet against it myself. certainly if the Dow heads lower dax likely to follow.

thanks, yea, looks like it was wrong - perceived weak support at 13182 held very well...  and 13205 didn't prove much of a resistance..  watching..

[dmedin]

Nah, don't go short...

 

[HMB]

1 minute ago, dmedin said:

Nah, don't go short...

 

how do you get those funny points into your charts...?  seriously, just read the basics about pivot points, another one yet to become confident in...  

[dmedin]

2 minutes ago, HMB said:

how do you get those funny points into your charts...?  seriously, just read the basics about pivot points, another one yet to become confident in...  

Parabolic SAR

Pivot Points will often line up nicely with Fibonacci ratios...

Use a filter to stop you going long and short indiscriminately, I won't go short if price is above 200 EMA

Edited September 11, 2020 by dmedin

[HMB]

2 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Parabolic SAR

Pivot Points will often line up nicely with Fibonacci ratios...

Use a filter to stop you going long and short indiscriminately, I won't go short if price is above 200 EMA

great - got it! thanks

[Caseynotes]

just to highlight how important the pivot is;

Dax M1

[HMB]

22 minutes ago, HMB said:

short at 13186.9, stop at 13225.  minimum size.  looks relatively quiet.  drop earlier accelerated after h&s pattern formation with declining neckline - rebound stopped below right shoulder level.  no significant news.  don't expect  US consumer price release to have much impact on Dax. Expecting US starting to give back most of their overnight gains before open - and pulling Dax down with them.  medium conviction. semi-experimental trade.  (risk 20 quid).  if it moves in favor, review at 13130 the latest.  if not, staying out of DAX for today.

 

 

closed at 13186.4.  don't like the 13182 support

[HMB]

2 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

just to highlight how important the pivot is;

Dax M1

yea.  just again confirmed support around there.  closed the trade.

[HMB]

2 minutes ago, HMB said:

yea.  just again confirmed support around there.  closed the trade.

...and now a Doji and hamemr - confirming my conspiracy theory..: the market against me...

Edited September 11, 2020 by HMB

[Caseynotes]

Just now, HMB said:

...and now two Dojis - confirming my conspiracy theory..: the market against me...

yes it's almost guaranteed to go on for a win once you pull the plug 😳 

[dmedin]

Look at how the Fibs line up with monthly Pivots here 🤓

 

[HMB]

went long after the green 1M candle rising above the weak short-term resistance 

[HMB]

1 minute ago, dmedin said:

Look at how the Fibs line up with monthly Pivots here 🤓

 

interesting

[HMB]

1 minute ago, HMB said:

went long after the green 1M candle rising above the weak short-term resistance 

admittedly not the most thought-through trade...  but minimum size (less than 12 quid max loss)

[HMB]

Just now, HMB said:

admittedly not the most thought-through trade...  but minimum size (less than 12 quid max loss)

...you guys talked me into it...! 

[Caseynotes]

6 minutes ago, HMB said:

...you guys talked me into it...! 

I was in a long off the pivot earlier but when it started back down off the flat top I just bailed at break even but it looks like it's got a better chance this time.

[HMB]

3 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

I was in a long off the pivot earlier but when it started back down off the flat top I just bailed at break even but it looks like it's got a better chance this time.

ok

[HMB]

btw - probably nothing, but if I was a US broker, I'd reluctantly let the market fall today as a matter of principle if I don't have to..

13 years when it was a weekday  - 3 days close below the open.  open to close up half a percent on average

 

 

 

 

Edited September 11, 2020 by HMB

[HMB]

1 hour ago, HMB said:

admittedly not the most thought-through trade...  but minimum size (less than 12 quid max loss)

stop hit.  staying out for now.

[HMB]

ok, that's it.  went short NDX after open, made 50 quid, then lost it by going long with weak support - didn't take a break to think but tried to make it back immediately with larger bets with nano stop distances - like out of my mind -  took minutes to reduce my account from 300 to 13.  then one last short, stop hit, account size moved to 0.01.  incredibly tempted to refund.  but will at least avoid that.  guess I need an emergency break.  another instant of the same lesson I just won't learn: avoid trading in a state of complete mental unpreparedness..! you probably won't hear from me for a while.    

[dmedin]

Trading on an hourly chart can be treacherous enough.

Trading on a one minute timeframe is absolutely bonkers.

[HMB]

21 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Trading on an hourly chart can be treacherous enough.

Trading on a one minute timeframe is absolutely bonkers.

That's probably a good attitude to have.

[dmedin]

3 minutes ago, HMB said:

That's probably a good attitude to have.

 

Start from the daily chart and work your way down.

The 15 minute time frame is crazy.  Anything less is insane.

[HMB]

2 minutes ago, dmedin said:

 

Start from the daily chart and work your way down.

The 15 minute time frame is crazy.  Anything less is insane.

this would probably help to avoid reacting too quickly, yes.

[dmedin]

Just now, HMB said:

this would probably help to avoid reacting too quickly, yes.

Look at how the Nasdaq is clinging to the 50 MA on the daily chart.

That is screaming 'WAIT'.

Wait for a decisive break one way or the other...

[HMB]

5 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Look at how the Nasdaq is clinging to the 50 MA on the daily chart.

That is screaming 'WAIT'.

Wait for a decisive break one way or the other...

In general waiting protects you, I would say. 

[HMB]

There is a trading psychologist Steve Ira phrases it like this:  you must deeply, emotionally accept losses.  Now what I see more clearly today than before, is that this requires me every time, to take time to consciously mentally prepare for losses before even looking at the screen.

In my case, not being mentally prepared for losses leads to trying to make them back immediately when they happen, which leads to large size trades with tightest stops, which come with highest probability of failure - and eventually send me into an account -burning spiral.

[HMB]

I'll take a break - two weeks minimum, to mentally stabilize.