DAX

[dmedin]

8 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

Prop firm traders and institutional traders use price ladders so are actually trading tick charts.

Have you ever helped anyone in all the time you've been here advocating minute trading and misusing indicators for entry signals?

[HMB]

11 minutes ago, dmedin said:

 

Many people prefer higher time frames and do a lot better with them.

There isn't a single high-flying wealthy investment manager out there looking at minute charts, for example.

Follow established trends.  People telling you to snipe and scalp are basically leading you into the fire from where you will be burned.

thanks dmedin - I get your point.  I have mostly traded on "perceived" signals on 1 min charts - but most turned out to be hallucinations...  there were a few days when this worked surprisingly well, but could be that this was just randomness.  maybe using that time frame was a actually core mistake.

I must admit the youtube videos seen recently with people who watch price ladders/orderbook impress me - maybe that's another trap I fell in

the temptation of shorter time frames is that one might "identify" (maybe hallucinating...) nearer r/s levels, allowing using a tighter stop.  but possibly it's exactly that what others take advantage of.

am currently in sim mode, so might try it out a bit longer risk-free for various reasons - but think you're advice  - while not what I would like to hear  - is very probably correct

[dmedin]

1 minute ago, HMB said:

I must admit the youtube videos seen recently with people who watch price ladders/orderbook impress me - maybe that's another trap I fell in

 

Sure, and highly specialized institutional trading systems are WHOLLY applicable to retail punters ...

OMG, this is so f*king stupid.

Try this approach first.  Find a trend and follow it.  Maybe then you can whip out the highly specialized tools of an institutional trader on your minute-by-minute chart 😉

[Caseynotes]

9 minutes ago, dmedin said:

I'd rather take my advice from established figures (which is what I am reproducing in those posts)  and not from people who hawk sh!tty day trading systems and other mystical hocus-pocus created by men decades ago who turned out to be total failures in life.

taking your own advice, losses to date £10,000 didn't you tell us. carry on.

[HMB]

...I feel I get very useful advice from both of you - and appreciate the different perspectives, many thanks.  makes me think a lot.  usually I come to the conclusion that I don't know anything...  which is probably exactly the attitude I should have at this stage (or maybe forever)  

[HMB]

Schaeffler, MAN, Conti (today) all recently announced job/cuts...  DAX new ATH soon...?

[HMB]

..think Mike Wilson (Morgan Stanley) recently pointed to increase in US operational leverage... (bullish) - applicable globally..?

Edited September 15, 2020 by HMB

[HMB]

7 hours ago, dmedin said:

People telling you to snipe and scalp are basically leading you into the fire from where you will be burned.

second screenshot shows the issue - min. guaranteed stop distance is 10 points, but usually the very short-term range doesn't give you that, so you end up closing with a reward to risk much less than one to not watch the trade move against you.  correspondingly you need more winning trades.  first picture was lucky...  all before the cost for the guaranteed stop and all demo trades - no need to mention that I found that much harder in real

 

Edited September 15, 2020 by HMB

[HMB]

6 minutes ago, HMB said:

second screenshot shows the issue - min. guaranteed stop distance is 10 points, but usually the very short-term range doesn't give you that, so you end up closing with a reward to risk much less than one to not watch the trade move against you.  correspondingly you need more winning trades.  first picture was lucky...  all before the cost for the guaranteed stop and all demo trades - no need to mention that I found that much harder in real

 

(in real, I would usually at some point become impatient, increase exposure, and miss that the market started trending..  till another round of funding the account)

[dmedin]

2 minutes ago, HMB said:

(in real, I would usually at some point become impatient, increase exposure, and miss that the market started trending..  till another round of funding the account)

 

Seems like a stressful and risky way to try and make a few quid  

[HMB]

Just now, dmedin said:

 

Seems like a stressful and risky way to try and make a few quid  

absolutely.  after an hour or so, one is mentally exhausted - just when you would need your mind's strength most to make you stop, in particular if you're down on that day

 

(I have no idea about institutional algos/AI - I only guess there are by now quite a few which do that.  you make an average 16bps per day and you got 40% p.a..  (250 trading days, assuming constant capital for simplicity) - then you can hire someone to write fancy long-term market outlooks for you, and pretend to your clients you know how the world works...  but of course I'm probably wrong.  maybe they have easier ways)

[dmedin]

1 minute ago, HMB said:

absolutely.  after an hour or so, one is mentally exhausted - just when you would need your mind's strength most to make you stop, in particular if you're down on that day

 

 

It ruins the whole day.  But according to the day trading gurus, one only needs to trade for 1 - 2 hours a day before going back to enjoying one's skiing resort or time in the Bahamas. 

[HMB]

5 minutes ago, dmedin said:

one only needs to trade for 1 - 2 hours a day

less!  the problem is you don't know in advance which hour of the day it's gonna be, that you should be looking at your screen...

Edited September 15, 2020 by HMB

[dmedin]

13 minutes ago, HMB said:

less!  the problem is you don't know in advance which hour of the day it's gonna be, that you should be looking at your screen...

 

Ah, but then it is a simple case of programming an automatic trading system and letting the money flow in to your account without so much as looking at another chart

Edited September 15, 2020 by dmedin

[HMB]

13 minutes ago, dmedin said:

 

Ah, but then it is a simple case of programming an automatic trading system and letting the money flow in to your account without so much as looking at another chart

Dunno, really.  Maybe.  Haven't thought about that in depth.  Reading the book about Simmons - contains a story where one of their algos cornered the potato market and no one in the firm knew why.  Guess if that was what I wanted to succeed in, I should have started three or four decades ago to develop the corresponding affinity.  But it seems I rather failed catastrophically in trying to control my emotions.

Edited September 15, 2020 by HMB

[dmedin]

1 minute ago, HMB said:

Dunno, really.  Maybe.  Haven't thought about that in depth.  Reading the book about Simmons - contains a story where one of their Algos cornered the potato market and no one in the firm knew why.  Guess if that was what I wanted to succeed in, I should have started three or four decades ago to develop the corresponding affinity.  But it seems I rather failed catastrophically in trying to control my emotions.

I've made money trading and then lost it all (and then some) during sideways movements.

If there was a way to determine that the market has gone sideways then it would tell you not to trade at all.

That way I'd get to keep my money and I'd have to wait patience till a new trend had started

 

[HMB]

1 minute ago, dmedin said:

I've made money trading and then lost it all (and then some) during sideways movements.

If there was a way to determine that the market has gone sideways then it would tell you not to trade at all.

That way I'd get to keep my money and I'd have to wait patience till a new trend had started

 

In my fancy long-term outlook (not published anywhere)..., I wrote a while ago that this is likely Japan, and we are in a long-term sideways move.  DAX, RTY, NKY, ASX... so far haven't yet been able to reject this hypothesis.  In this narrative, NDX/FANGBATMAN were an exception - and I think that's over now.  Even gold and real estate I expect to go nowhere.

But obviously I know that I have no idea, so immediately forgetting this, and turning to something I read on FX Street, in a piece by Barbara Rockefeller:  the long run is a series of short runs.   Leads me to the same conclusion - try to profit from oscillation.

However doing the opposite of what I did in the past was usually a safe bet.

[HMB]

14 minutes ago, dmedin said:

and then lost it all (and then some)

that what keeps you trying?

[dmedin]

7 hours ago, HMB said:

that what keeps you trying?

Yeah man.  They say that you should stick to something, but not if it fails to work.

Will you try day charts?  

Pull up a daily chart and try 5, 20 and 50 EMA.  Buy when price > 5 EMA > 20 EMA > 50 EMA and sell when the reverse.  Set a stop below the swing low and let profits ride, adjusting the TP on a daily basis as necessary. 

Only need to check charts once or twice a day max.

Worth a go.

[HMB]

15 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Yeah man.  They say that you should stick to something, but not if it fails to work.

Will you try day charts?  

Pull up a daily chart and try 5, 20 and 50 EMA.  Buy when price > 5 EMA > 20 EMA > 50 EMA and sell when the reverse.  Set a stop below the swing low and let profits ride, adjusting the TP on a daily basis as necessary. 

Only need to check charts once or twice a day max.

Worth a go.

which swing low?  TP =..?

Edited September 16, 2020 by HMB

[dmedin]

2 minutes ago, HMB said:

ok, so now I'd buy SPX..?  TP = ?   sorry if I'm blockheaded, kinda tired...  which swing low?  trying it in demo..:

 

Correct!

The daily closing price is above the three EMAs which are above each other in the correct order.

You see that that was a dip in a strong uptrend - DON'T BE TRYING TO SELL.

Just wait for the dip.  

Now if price closes below 5 EMA which is below 20 EMA which is below 50 EMA on the daily chart, only then would you consider selling.

Edited September 16, 2020 by dmedin

[HMB]

Just now, dmedin said:

 

Correct!

Ideally you would wait for the daily closing price, but yes the momentum right now is up.  

You see that that was a dip in a strong uptrend - DON'T BE TRYING TO SELL.

Just wait for the dip.  

Now if price closes below 5 EMA which is below 20 EMA which is below 50 EMA on the daily chart, only then would you consider selling.

..actually for SPX 20>5...  (deleted that, but you responded faster)  but for DAX I think conditions are met 

[dmedin]

3 minutes ago, HMB said:

..actually for SPX 20>5...  (deleted that, but you responded faster)  but for DAX I think conditions are met 

Yeah that's right. 

Edited September 16, 2020 by dmedin

[HMB]

 

24 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Yeah man.  They say that you should stick to something, but not if it fails to work.

Will you try day charts?  

Pull up a daily chart and try 5, 20 and 50 EMA.  Buy when price > 5 EMA > 20 EMA > 50 EMA and sell when the reverse.  Set a stop below the swing low and let profits ride, adjusting the TP on a daily basis as necessary. 

Only need to check charts once or twice a day max.

Worth a go.

trying it with Dax in demo...  define swing low, 5 days, 20 days..?  TP=?...

 

Edited September 16, 2020 by HMB

[dmedin]

See Nasdaq doesn't quite fit the conditions yet so entering now you'd be jumping the gun (although you might be justified in thinking it's going up from here anyway and it's close enough )

 

[dmedin]

1 minute ago, HMB said:

 

trying it with Dax in demo...  define swing low, 5 days, 20 days..?  TP=?...

 

 

The swing low near 12250 is too far away so you'd put it just beneath 12800.

Initial TP is 1.5 times risk, but you can adjust it on a daily basis to let profits ride (if you should be so fortunate )

[HMB]

2 minutes ago, dmedin said:

you might be justified in thinking it's going up from here anyway

...not now after Kim Kardashian watched The Social Dilemma on Netflix and decided to freeze her Instagram account...

[HMB]

2 minutes ago, dmedin said:

 

The swing low near 12250 is too far away so you'd put it just beneath 12800.

Initial TP is 1.5 times risk, but you can adjust it on a daily basis to let profits ride (if you should be so fortunate )

I see - TP = target profit...

[dmedin]

Just now, HMB said:

...not now after Kim Kardashian watched The Social Dilemma on Netflix and decided to freeze her Instagram account...

 

Jumping the gun and being gung-ho is what lost me all the money I made

As for adjusting the TP.  As price begins to get to something like 1.3 or 1.4 times your risk, move the stop up to just beneath that point.  Hopefully it will keep on going up past 1.5 times your risk.  If it moves past 2 times your risk, move it up to just below that point and so on.

[dmedin]

If you're comfortable with them you could also use weekly or monthly pivots for adjusting your stop loss and TP.