Jump to content

Indices


Recommended Posts

So a massive drop on the day in the US session, worth taking a step back and looking again at the weekly chart we see Dow currently held up at it's weekly support level with price looking to have bottomed out on the shorter time frames for now. Dax has been halted at it's monthly support level while Nikkei has returned to it's long term resistance levels having broken out several weeks ago. FTSE has cleared it's weekly support zone but still a long way from it's monthly support level. Should be a very interesting day tomorrow.

image.thumb.png.fb2fc5d62b79c8fe0b973371fb577063.png

  • Sad 1
Link to comment

About DAX

This could go either way (as usual?)

We should get a sell off when the neckline breaks in the big head and shoulder formation

But will it be a false sell with a fast drop and a fast recovery (v-bottom) and then up to new all time highs 

or is this the real thing with a long term top and a bearmarket? 

Time will tell?

The target for the HS formation is 9 600 ish (2 000 neck to top) 

Link to comment

In a post, somewhere, can't remember which thread, I observed that the US large Caps looked bearish while the FTSE and Nasdaq were giving some bullish signals.  I wondered whether we could see divergence, but should have known better.  The stock indices remain joined at the hip and I suspect they will all the way down too.  However the question is whether this is it or not.  I have been waiting for a strong retrace of this nature in an EW3-4 fashion to set up a final leg to top out the market and this looks like it at present.  Will we see a sharp "buy the dip" reaction or is this really the end?  Answers on a post card please...

Link to comment

One additional thought about all this.  If this is the end then why hasn't USD taken off?  It may yet of course but so far it has gone in the opposite direction, albeit only in a small move.  Maybe it has all gone into bitcoin?  (Ah! maybe not... - sorry couldn't resist ?).  Therefore I remain cautions about jumping on the Bearish bandwagon (which as a perma bear is saying something I recognise!) there will always be another opportunity.  I am sticking with my road-maps on FX and therefore also on everything else for now until the market confirms it of tells me something else is happening.

Link to comment

True enough the rout was started on the US open yesterday and then continued round the globe/clock. There was a push down attempt on the US open in 4 of the last 5 sessions and I'm just looking at the Dow 1 hour leaning against the recent low looking as innocent as you like just waiting for 2:30.

 image.thumb.png.8e14d4105ec36cd95724dbfacc8f6926.png

  • Sad 1
Link to comment

Nice analysis @elle, Out of hours can be a pain overall but useful perspective.  Interestingly for me the 2 drops you have highlighted with arrows both follow an A-B-C retrace pattern, well the current one isn't complete yet but still.  If we are to see a rally out of this it will have to start at or soon after US open I feel.  Quite normal to get an initial move the wrong way and then a turn into the trend for the day on opening, so that could be an initial further drop (call it a catch up on Asia and Europe drop if you like) and then a turn and rally.  MY Daily Dow chart shows similar support level to yours around the 25,000 mark, a zone I had picked out before the current bear move.  It also coincides with a supporting trend-line.

DJI-Daily_111018.thumb.png.aedd3b0e45a1fc67910dc3df31200cbe.png

Link to comment

It was most disconcerting yesterday morning to find on the Dow chart that my auto fractal support/resistance drawing app had been completely overwhelmed and I was forced to draw my own **** horizontal lines. This morning the same has happened on the Dax! When will this madness end? 

The FTSE has seen twice as much action out of hours of late than during a typical day with a continued drop then recovery to return to yesterday's close and similar story with the Dax which has just backed away from yesterday's high.

Not too much on the calendar today though maybe something out of the G20 meeting. China and US to start trade talks again announced overnight may provide a boost.

image.thumb.png.3a6c6be88c48f232a2097515a422d7d2.png

 

 

  • Sad 1
Link to comment

Start the week so a recap of the weekly chart and the big question is will Dow seek to retest the low at 24895 or look above for resistance? The 1 Hour shows Dow trapped in the same triangle pattern as S&P through there is a short term support level at 25200 and that level is key for the morning session.

Dax on the 7 am Euro open is looking to push lower but lacks conviction and is waiting for the London open to decide direction. 

 

image.thumb.png.03e34ba1bc6e4f349c85dfa3762b88d3.png

image.thumb.png.3bdaf68f350b6c39ffe19b50ffe83aab.png

  • Sad 1
Link to comment

The Dow giving an example of price just dribbling out of a triangle pattern sideways rather than exploding out up or down but is building on successive short term support levels to keep retesting resistance. Currently looking for downside below 25172 or a test up of 25484.

Dax is positioned well for a test of the old monthly support turned resistance at 11700 while FTSE looks to resistance at 7078. These two are following the recent Nikkei move up.

The Dow daily is an interesting bear pennant made up of dojis, obviously bearish but these recent moves have been more sentiment based than technical.

1 hour charts (note I have changed round the positions). 

Daily Dow.

image.thumb.png.287b5c173021c23d0cbdc86932097a20.png

image.thumb.png.71f48a3b7171dcbebe175204717849c4.png

  • Sad 1
Link to comment

Dow has worked it's way back up to pause at it's previous weekly support level around 25748 and Dax has done the same resting at it's previous weekly support level around 11862 having broken up through it's previous monthly support level 11700 yesterday (dark red). Nikkei and FTSE showing the same chart pattern as Dax and Dow.

From these red levels maybe looking at a short retracement but could equally see a solid push through, the London open should decide it either way.

image.thumb.png.c16d89f7ea2ebe5d5de108a8c7866727.png

  • Sad 1
Link to comment

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • image.png

  • Posts

    • Wheat Elliott Wave Analysis  Function - Trend Mode - Trend Structure - Impulse for wave (A) Position - Wave 5 of  (A) Direction - Wave (B) Details -  Wave 5 of (A) could be completed with an ending diagonal. Pullback for (B) should begin afterwards. Since March 2024, wheat prices have been recovering and extending higher. However, a slowdown and a potential downward correction may occur in the coming days. Despite this, the overall recovery trend is expected to continue afterward. The initial recovery from the low of 523 in March is projected to advance towards the 840-940 range in the medium term. Nevertheless, the long-term bearish trend could resume in the last quarter of the year.   Examining the daily chart, we observe a bearish impulse wave that began at 1364 in March 2022, culminating in an impulse wave that reached 523 in March 2024, thus concluding a two-year sell-off. The subsequent recovery from 523 is nearing the completion of an impulse wave. This suggests that we should anticipate at least an (A)-(B)-(C) bullish correction continuing towards higher price levels, likely in the 842-942 range, which corresponds to the 38.2-50% Fibonacci retracement zone. It is also possible for prices to move even higher. This bullish corrective cycle is projected to extend until the last quarter of the year. For now, the focus should be on the completion of wave (A) and the potential for a retracement in wave (B).     The H4 chart reveals that wave (A) is nearing its completion, forming an ending diagonal for wave 5. A bearish retracement for wave (B) is anticipated to start soon. The prudent strategy at this juncture is to wait for wave (B) to complete before considering long positions in wave (C), provided wave (B) does not breach the 523 low.   In summary, while wheat prices have been on an upward trajectory since March 2024, we may soon experience a short-term correction. However, the broader recovery trend is expected to persist, with prices potentially reaching the 840-940 range. Traders should monitor the progression of wave (A) and prepare for the likely retracement in wave (B). By closely observing the key level of 523, traders can ensure that the bearish wave (B) does not invalidate the recovery trend. If wave (B) remains above this level, the subsequent wave (C) could present a favorable opportunity for long positions, aligning with the projected medium-term bullish correction before the resumption of the long-term bearish trend later in the year. Technical Analyst : Sanmi Adeagbo Source : Tradinglounge.com get trial here!  
    • BlockChainPeople is diving deep into the minds of blockchain users, trying to understand what makes them tick. Interesting stuff. Messari, these crypto detectives uncover hidden data and trends in the crypto market.  Coin Center, policy peeps focused on shaping the future of blockchain regulations.  The Graph, Imagine Google Search, but for everything blockchain – that's The Graph! So, is BlockChainPeople the only way to learn about blockchain? Nope! There's a treasure trove of resources out there waiting to be explored. And it also just got listed on Bitget, spectacular right? What are your thoughts? Are you curious about the psychology of blockchain users, or are you more interested in general blockchain education? Let's hear your thoughts in the comments.
    • Swiss Market Index Elliott Wave Analysis Trading Lounge Day Chart, Swiss Market Index Elliott Wave Technical Analysis FUNCTION: Trend MODE: impulsive STRUCTURE: gray wave 1 POSITION: orange wave 3 DIRECTION NEXT LOWER  DEGREES: gray wave 2 DETAILS: gray wave 1 of orange wave 3 is in play. Wave Cancel invalid level: 11130.21 The Swiss Market Index Elliott Wave Analysis on the day chart offers insights into the market's trend using the Elliott Wave Principle. The analysis categorizes the current function as a trend, indicating that the price movements are aligned with the prevailing market direction. The mode is impulsive, suggesting that the market is in a strong, directional phase rather than experiencing a corrective or sideways movement.   The wave structure currently under observation is gray wave 1, which is part of a larger sequence identified as orange wave 3. This implies that the market is in the early stages of a significant upward movement, with gray wave 1 representing the initial phase of this advance.   The position of the market within these waves is critical for understanding its future direction. Currently, gray wave 1 of orange wave 3 is actively developing. This stage is essential as it sets the foundation for subsequent waves, indicating the market's potential for continued upward momentum. The direction for the next lower degrees, which will follow, is gray wave 2. This suggests that after the completion of gray wave 1, a corrective phase will ensue before the market resumes its upward trend in orange wave 3.   An important detail in this analysis is the invalidation level set at 11130.21. This level is crucial for traders and analysts as it acts as a threshold for the validity of the current wave count. If the market price drops to or below this level, the existing Elliott Wave structure would be invalidated, necessitating a reassessment of the wave patterns and potential adjustments in trading strategies.   In summary, the Swiss Market Index Elliott Wave Analysis on the day chart indicates that the market is in a strong upward trend, with gray wave 1 of orange wave 3 currently in play. This impulsive mode suggests continued upward momentum, with gray wave 2 expected to follow as a corrective phase. The invalidation level at 11130.21 is a critical benchmark for maintaining the validity of this wave count, ensuring that market strategies can be adjusted if necessary. This analysis helps traders anticipate market movements and refine their strategies based on the Elliott Wave patterns.     Swiss Market Index Elliott Wave Analysis Trading Lounge Weekly Chart, Swiss Market Index Elliott Wave Technical Analysis FUNCTION: Trend MODE: impulsive STRUCTURE: orange wave 3 POSITION:  navy blue wave 3 DIRECTION NEXT LOWER  DEGREES:   orange wave 4                                         DETAILS: orange wave 2 of 3 looking completed at 11130.21. Now orange wave 3 is in play. Wave Cancel invalid level: 11130.21 The Swiss Market Index Elliott Wave Analysis on the weekly chart provides an in-depth look into the market's directional trends using the Elliott Wave Theory. This analysis identifies the function as a trend, indicating that the market is moving in a consistent, identifiable direction. The mode is classified as impulsive, which suggests strong and definitive price movements rather than a corrective or sideways trend.   The primary wave structure currently being analyzed is orange wave 3, which is part of a larger sequence identified as navy blue wave 3. This classification is significant as it highlights that the market is in the midst of a major upward movement. Within this context, the position of the market is situated in navy blue wave 3, which further confirms the ongoing strength of the upward trend.   The direction for the next lower degrees will be orange wave 4. This indicates that after the completion of the current orange wave 3, a corrective phase is expected to follow before the market resumes its upward trajectory. This pattern helps traders anticipate a temporary pullback before the continuation of the broader uptrend.   A key detail in this analysis is the completion of orange wave 2 of 3 at the level of 11130.21. This completion marks the end of a corrective phase and the commencement of the impulsive orange wave 3, which is currently in play. The invalidation level is also set at 11130.21, which serves as a crucial threshold. If the market price falls to or below this level, the current wave count would be invalidated, necessitating a reevaluation of the wave structure and potentially altering trading strategies.   In summary, the Swiss Market Index Elliott Wave Analysis on the weekly chart suggests a strong upward trend within the impulsive mode of orange wave 3. The market is currently in navy blue wave 3, with the next anticipated phase being orange wave 4. The completion of orange wave 2 at 11130.21 indicates that orange wave 3 is now in progress. The invalidation level at 11130.21 is critical for maintaining the integrity of this wave count. This analysis aids traders in understanding market movements and refining their strategies based on the Elliott Wave patterns, anticipating both the continuation of the trend and potential corrective phases.   Technical Analyst : Malik Awais Source : Tradinglounge.com get trial here!  
×
×
  • Create New...
us