Indices

[dmedin]

This is a time for shorting.  Take your pick, there's plenty to make money shorting on right now!

[Caseynotes]

7 minutes ago, dmedin said:

This is a time for shorting.  Take your pick, there's plenty to make money shorting on right now!

Actually that's interesting, the line I drew on the daily chart this morning at yesterday's low when zoomed out to the monthly chart is last months low.

But short away to your hearts content, the bulls need suckers to take the other side of their trades.

[dmedin]

1 minute ago, Caseynotes said:

But short away to your hearts content, the bulls need suckers to take the other side of their trades.

[dmedin]

I can smell a trap ... 🙈

[dmedin]

Keep the faith, my bonnie wee loon 😺

[Caseynotes]

US non-manu PMI was a miss at 52.6, was expecting 55.1. Indices dropping on the news.

[Caseynotes]

Could be very exciting today, if the purchasing managers are more gloomy than expectations have the hiring managers been hiring as per expectations? and heading into a weekend the worry warts could start a panic if figures are bad, delicious.

Yesterday the indices looked to have found support and are attempting to rally. 

[Caseynotes]

NFP headline figure down slightly as was the average hourly earnings but the unemployment rate was a strong beat at 3.5% from 3.7% hence the markets initial lift.

M30 charts;

[dmedin]

Kind of looks like we're getting sideways action going nowhere for now. 

 

[Caseynotes]

9 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Kind of looks like we're getting sideways action going nowhere for now. 

 

yeah, really the overall data was probably quite neutral and a certain amount of relief the data wasn't very bad being expressed in the initial response.

M1 chart;

[Caseynotes]

Friday saw a boost to the markets keeping the Dow in touch with the highs. And bad news for all ewes hoping for a recession, here is the S&P sector quilt for 2019 so far (and previous years dating back to 2009), oh dear, not a single negative for 2019 ☹️. If it wasn't for me you guys would only see what you were looking for.

https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2019/09/the-2019-sp-500-sector-quilt/

[Caseynotes]

Indices continuing to rally and a strong push up on the European open with Dax tagging the daily R1. The news doesn't quite match events with Trump slapping a trade restriction order on another 28 Chinese firms ahead of new trade talks which aren't expected to yield much in the way of progress anyway.

US PPI today at 1:30 2.3% expected.

[Caseynotes]

Indices shaken by trade talk news yesterday and today Fed chair Powell speaks at 4pm plus answers questions and the FOMC mtg minutes from the last meeting at 7pm should give clues on future interest rates plus more news on QE 4 (or is it 5) bond buying announced by Powell yesterday though not calling it QE any longer apparently.

Plus a look at historic tightening periods as expectancy for a 25bp cut in October rise to 75%.

AndreasStenoLarsen @AndreasSteno

20h

 

Did the Fed overtighten? Incl. QT, this is the most severe tightening cycle in a LONG while..

 

[Caseynotes]

Jonathan Davis FPFS FCII  @j0nathandavis

"I didn't realise they allowed bulls on RV."

 

Real Vision@realvision. Bulls seem pretty thin on the ground these days… But @FrankCappelleri, chief market technician at Nomura Instinet, is here with a cheery outlook for the S&P 500:

 

 

[Caseynotes]

Indices grind back up after the shock lol news no progress was made in the trade talks. Chinese politicians still demanding the right to thieve intellectual property at will because ... 'REASONS' and seem surprised a little bribery yesterday didn't work.

So indices still positioned mid range and have begun the grind back towards the highs this morning, while general confidence may be low the US econ data remains strong so no reason not to. US CPI data latter today should hold no surprises.

[Caseynotes]

Dax takes off early this morning after a strong day for Dax, Dow and ASX yesterday. Ftse sullen as GBP takes off on Boris deal rumours. Dax and Dow looking to work higher today.

I see the APAC brief is back, always worth a look see as to the world scene overnight.

Daily charts;

[Caseynotes]

[Caseynotes]

China exports to the US down over 10% in the last 9 months and the Chinese seem to be losing faith in the hope that delayed trade talks will see them negotiating with the democrats after the next US election. All sides report positive progress on the the most recent talks on Friday.

Dow looking up to the all time high once more and Dax in sight of it's monthly chart resistance level. Hopes of a partial trade deal between UK and the EU seem to have fallen through so GBP and Ftse remain volatile.  

The S&P weekly chart couldn't be clearer and US economy remains strong, the only thing that's down is sentiment and that can change in an instant.

Weekly global outlook summary from Topdown charts. 

[Caseynotes]

Indices had a bit of a set back yesterday when the Chinese announced after arriving home from the trade talks that they had changed their mind and decided not to sign the partial agreement til after more talks.

Dax is not hanging around and is up 60 points this morning with the monthly chart resistance level dead ahead.

Ftse still plagued by Brexit uncertainty.

Daily charts;

[Caseynotes]

As noted in yesterday's morning post, watchers are turning to emerging markets as a leading indicator for the next move.

TopdownCharts

 

"EEM is up to its declining tops line, and ahead of the SP500 getting to its equivalent line. This could be the start of EEM leading the way higher. When the two have a disagreement or divergence, EEM usually ends up being right about where both are headed." Tom McClellen

 

[Caseynotes]

Dax and Dow push up through recent high resistance, ASX is up but Ftse still suffering the vagaries of Brexit and the ping pong pound.

Saw a large poll yesterday that showed that the majority now believe in a no deal US/China trade dispute (as opposed to a deal this year or next or the year after that). Time to move on? (see bottom chart)

[Caseynotes]

A pause day yesterday for Dax and Dow while ASX had a strong up day but reversed overnight, Both Hong Kong and China are up slightly. A Brexit deal was expected last night but nothing materialised, gbpusd as a consequence was pushed higher yesterday but falling back today, and as a consequence of that Ftse was down yesterday and improving today.

After a pause candle direction is unclear, the Dow ATH is just above but will need some incentive to attack it, Dax will try to hold onto the recent gains and the monthly chart resistance level (purple).

Daily charts; 

[Caseynotes]

All heading up on confirmed reports the brexit deal is signed, done and dusted and a leave on the 31st Oct. 

[Caseynotes]

The deal has been signed but not released yet so few know what's actually in it. DUP not in agreement with final text but the EU is likely to say this deal or no deal in which case it is likely to be pasted by the house even without the DUP.

 

Just published 

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/brexit-negotiations/negotiating-documents-article-50-negotiations-united-kingdom_en

[Caseynotes]

3 hours ago, Caseynotes said:

The deal has been signed but not released yet so few know what's actually in it. DUP not in agreement with final text but the EU is likely to say this deal or no deal in which case it is likely to be pasted by the house even without the DUP.

This looks like playing out, parliament has voted to sit on Saturday to vote on whether to accept the deal or not, Junker has just confirmed there can be no extension so the vote on Saturday can only be a vote for this deal or a no-deal brexit on the 31st Oct. The 10 DUP votes should not be needed for a win.

The deal gets us out of the customs union but stay in a partial regulation union.

[Caseynotes]

On 15/10/2019 at 15:25, Caseynotes said:

"EEM is up to its declining tops line, and ahead of the SP500 getting to its equivalent line. This could be the start of EEM leading the way higher. When the two have a disagreement or divergence, EEM usually ends up being right about where both are headed." Tom McClellen

https://www.home.saxo/insights/content-hub/articles/2019/10/17/emerging-market-stocks-just-break-out-of-a-20-month-downtrend

[Caseynotes]

Another pause candle for Dow yesterday while Dax puts in something akin to a gravestone doji, Ftse remains out of sorts and out of step with the others and ASX taking the China GDP miss badly. May see some selling off going into the weekend.

China GDP historic graph below 2004 - 2019.

[Caseynotes]

Still not clear how the vote will go tomorrow, will depend on Labour MPs, snap poll suggests general population support it. Merkel ready to offer an extension if vote no but Boris seems unlikely to accept.

Nick Boles MP  @NickBoles  "All the Benn Act does is oblige the PM to request an extension if he has not got his deal approved by the end of tomorrow. On its own an extension request cannot stop a No Deal Brexit on 31 Oct. The only certain way to stop No Deal is to vote for the deal."

[dmedin]

18 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

Merkel ready to offer an extension if vote no 

The vote has little significance if there will be an extension given if they vote no.  They can keep this up indefinitely.

Edited October 18, 2019 by dmedin

[Caseynotes]

Friday's total equity Put volume was the highest since August 2011.