Indices

[dmedin]

I liked a quote I saw on Reuters yesterday, the market goes up in steps and down on the escalator.

[Caseynotes]

Just now, dmedin said:

I liked a quote I saw on Reuters yesterday, the market goes up in steps and down on the escalator.

Correct, it takes time to build positions that a sudden panic can undo in just a few hours but the undoing inevitably gets overdone 🙃

[Caseynotes]

Another down day for Dow yesterday as Trump fanned the flames by declaring a trade deal may have to wait til after his re-election in Nov 2020.  Dow looks to have found support at former weekly chart resistance 27313 (Red). The Dems controlled house votes to require Trump to sanction Chinese officials over the Muslim detentions has also caused a backlash from China. 

 

Edited December 4, 2019 by Caseynotes

[Caseynotes]

With these frequent breaking news releases causing such major market moves I can see I'm going to have to get Bloombergs machine read news feed, it's only $220K a month 😮

[dmedin]

The retard-in-chief will announce another reprieve on tariffs before 15 December, and it will go on.

[Caseynotes]

52 minutes ago, dmedin said:

The retard-in-chief will announce another reprieve on tariffs before 15 December, and it will go on.

not sure what you're worried about, until Trump gets a deal that includes IP protection with verification that will last into the future then the US economy can keep ticking over while the Chinese economy continues down the pan. US/China trade only accounts for 2.5% of global trade anyway. Trump's got all the time in the world.

[Caseynotes]

1 minute ago, Caseynotes said:

not sure what you're worried about, until Trump gets a deal that includes IP protection with verification that will last into the future then the US economy can keep ticking over while the Chinese economy continues down the pan. US/China trade only accounts for 2.5% of global trade anyway. Trump's got all the time in the world.

and don't forget there are Chinese politicians blatantly claiming China has the absolute  right to steal because China is poor and of course that's what all socialist do anyway 😆

[Caseynotes]

ADP non-farm payroll comes in a bad miss at only half the 137k expected could be a precursor for a bad NFP print on Friday.

Looks to have hit the USD more than indices at the moment.

[Caseynotes]

Dow thinks it's found support and is now working it's way back up, Dax already has a head start. Ftse is of course still mired in Brexit and Election fuddle.

[dmedin]

17 hours ago, Caseynotes said:

ADP non-farm payroll comes in a bad miss at only half the 137k expected could be a precursor for a bad NFP print on Friday.

 

😢

[Caseynotes]

Dow continues upward but a big day ahead with NFP this afternoon. The OPEC mtg rumbles on but a cut in production looks a likely outcome. S&P now back up over 50% of the Mon-Tues drop.

[Caseynotes]

S&P sector charts;

Bespoke @bespokeinvest

Helpful snapshot of S&P 500 sector trading range charts, from our Daily Sector Snapshot report available to members. Uptrends in place for all but Energy

[Caseynotes]

 

Don't try to fight central banks.

[Caseynotes]

So the recent US indices dip was yet another buying opportunity and of course the permabears diving in short once again only to be flushed in short order for about the thousandth time since 2012. It seems they don't care being wrong all the  time for years on end so long as they might be right once some time in the future. This of course is not trading but has more to do with Je-sus complex prophesying and most definitely needs an income stream outside of trading to support it.

The only people who do profit from it are the professional peddlers of doom and gloom and there are many, but why are so many so susceptible to fake messaging?

In the link below are several short vids on how the media manipulates the news and so dictates what people think both in regards to the markets and in general. 

https://tacticalinvestor.com/permabear-it-takes-a-special-kind-of-stupid-to-be-one/

Edited December 9, 2019 by Caseynotes

[dmedin]

Quote

The latest data out of China showed exports in November shrank for the fourth straight month, in a sign the world’s second largest economy continues to reel from the impact of a prolonged trade war with the United States.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-europe-stocks/european-shares-dip-after-weak-china-data-tullow-slumps-idUKKBN1YD0O6

 

I didn't see any announcement of that data in IG's economic calendar or at Forex Factory?

Edited December 9, 2019 by dmedin

[AndrewS]

It is the Trade Balance release Sunday morning GMT.

  

[Caseynotes]

13 hours ago, dmedin said:

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-europe-stocks/european-shares-dip-after-weak-china-data-tullow-slumps-idUKKBN1YD0O6

 

I didn't see any announcement of that data in IG's economic calendar or at Forex Factory?

https://www.teletrader.com/economic-calendar?ts=1560405895986

[Caseynotes]

Dow just backing away from the highs yesterday. No real drivers til FOMC tomorrow so could be slow today. Could be news today on the impeachment process with the Democrat controlled Lower house voting to move ahead with proceedings in a partisan vote in spite of there being no actual admissible evidence against Trump. When this is past onto the Upper house for trial where the Dems do not have a majority it is most likely to all fall apart. 

 

 

[dmedin]

2 hours ago, Caseynotes said:

could be slow today

Big drop underway.  Getting set up for Trump's announcement that the tariffs will be postponed again.  Must be great to be in Trump's inner circle, taking advantage of the insider information.  

No admissible evidence - yes, Trump is a totally legit and honest businessman. 

Edited December 10, 2019 by dmedin

[Caseynotes]

1 minute ago, dmedin said:

No admissible evidence - yes, Trump is a totally legit and honest businessman. 

considering he's been under constant inquiry since before he even took office you would think they should have come up with something by now. 

[Caseynotes]

all the witnesses's the impeachment hearings have found so far was 2 diplomats (Dems) who said they overheard some stuff might be true and another guy who thought up some stuff that could be true 🤔

[dmedin]

1 hour ago, Caseynotes said:

all the witnesses's the impeachment hearings have found so far was 2 diplomats (Dems) who said they overheard some stuff might be true and another guy who thought up some stuff that could be true 🤔

 

You can tell Trump is guilty just by the way he reacts. 

But as you said, the Senate is Republican.  So it doesn't really matter. 

[Caseynotes]

11 minutes ago, dmedin said:

 

You can tell Trump is guilty just by the way he reacts. 

But as you said, the Senate is Republican.  So it doesn't really matter. 

oh ok, so let's see if I've got this right, you can be called for trial on nothing more substantial than biased gossip and guilt or innocence shall be determined not by any evidence but solely on acting skills. God help the defendant when you get called up for jury duty 😅

[dmedin]

Quote

World stocks sink as tariff deadline approaches

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-global-markets/world-stocks-sink-as-tariff-deadline-approaches-idUKKBN1YE01U?il=0

 

Waiting for Trump to step in and save the day ...

[dmedin]

1 hour ago, Caseynotes said:

oh ok, so let's see if I've got this right, you can be called for trial on nothing more substantial than biased gossip and guilt or innocence shall be determined not by any evidence but solely on acting skills. God help the defendant when you get called up for jury duty 😅

If you are a very important person, you are supposed to behave responsibly ... and you should be called to account and held to high standards.  And of course Trump is a very high-quality president, just like he is a high-quality 'businessman'

[Caseynotes]

Dow ended being a pause day yesterday, tried to go down but was just bought straight back up again, same story. Dax followed. Ftse election uncertainty as Labour close the gap in the polls. And similar uncertainty for China. An interesting development yesterday as China tried to do a 'Trump' and take control of the narrative by releasing news the Dec tariff increases had been postponed only for the US to issue a denial several hours later 🥳

[Caseynotes]

After what some commentators described at the most boring FOMC report and presser for years the charts continue their march back up to the highs.

DOW, DAX and S&P daily charts;  

[Caseynotes]

When looking at these markets and the trading behaviour of the average retail trader it seems to me that many don't really understand the market they are trading, there are also psychological factors that influence decision making to the detriment of trading success.

If you are not confident in your understanding of the market then you are solely dependent on technical analysis but TA is not a given, it can only play out if assisted by fundamental and macro factors, those factors currently point to bull continuation.

So the US major indices are routinely hitting new all time highs, the retail trader thinks they need to sell the high in order to buy back lower (buy low sell high right) so the retail trader (the crowd) are constantly trying to pick the tops (and patting themselves on the back thinking they are being contrarian). The positioning data of IG clients tell us this is exactly what's happening. Every time price goes higher the sell position ratio increases, when price is falling in a down trend the buy position ratios go higher.

So clearly this is all wrong, when price is continually rising you need to buy high and sell higher. You buy breakouts or pullbacks, you should not be looking to sell a bull trending market at all.

So why do they do it? The market is too high (no it's not), it must be the bears turn (wait and see first), but I need to sell the highs, the saying says so (no, you're not an investor), the chart is looking 'toppy' (just no), the TA is pointing down (doesn't matter without fundy and macro assist).

An understand of a market comes with experience, until it does stick with the basics and look for longs in an uptrend, don't try to second guess the market and end up constantly fighting against it.

[dmedin]

Zut alors 🐮

[Caseynotes]

7 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Zut alors 🐮

Trump tweet at 14:35, 5 min into US market open 🥳🥳🥳