Indices

[dmedin]

2 hours ago, Caseynotes said:

er, the unemployment rate for the EU continues it's steady decline

 

 

True enough and 15,000 job losses in a country of 80+ million people is a drop in the ocean.

I'm sure gutting out stable middle-class jobs and replacing them with insecure, lowly-paid 'zero hours' type contracts will make for a really healthy future society though.

[Caseynotes]

The Indices start Monday heading back up the chart, not much in the way of data releases this week. The Chinese are heading back to work as China's oil demand has declined by 20% since late Jan (see chart). 

[Caseynotes]

Dax and Dow starting below the pivot and looked to have checked support now trying to move up.

M30 charts;

[Caseynotes]

Breaking news - markets in the near future might go up or they might go down!!!!!!!!!

Since you will have no idea what and when here's a thought. Just trade the chart in front of you BUT have a stand by strategy in case of a reversal. It's a stunning, brave and radical idea I know, no wonder no one ever thought of it before but isn't that easier than guessing whether or not something will happen? 🤔🧐

[Caseynotes]

Another great idea - when price has moved to the top of the screen you might be thinking that the only way to go from here is down. Top Tip, use the SLIDER to move the chart down and that way you miraculously create more space for price to go up. BRILLIANT. 

[HPbrand]

US Indices are diverging. Nasdaq appears to have a greater chance to go up up up than both Dow and S&P in the short term.

My longs are positioned accordingly.

[HPbrand]

On 08/02/2020 at 20:11, dmedin said:

 

 

It'll take me several years to win back what I've lost from SB if I'm lucky, but I recouped all my losses on S&P 500 ETF within 12 months and would have made big profit if I hadn't sold off.

Several years till break even again? And you are still here not giving up! 💪

I would probably packed up my bags and venture into another business to recoup my losses.

[HPbrand]

I meant % wise for Nasdaq. Again, the moment my more conservative target hits, I'm out. I think this should happen by the end of this week, possibly mid-week.

Better be safe with smaller profits through more trades.

[Caseynotes]

S&P straight back into new all time highs, Dow and Dax not far behind. Ftse has UK GDP to worry about.

Daily charts;

[dmedin]

I have to be honest and admit that I tried my hand at shorting the indices, lost money again.  TA is so much fun

[dmedin]

7 hours ago, HPbrand said:

I meant % wise for Nasdaq. Again, the moment my more conservative target hits, I'm out. I think this should happen by the end of this week, possibly mid-week.

Better be safe with smaller profits through more trades.

As a trader all you can do is be glad you haven't lost all your money ... it's a mug's game.

Sadly we are all where the system wants us to be - wage slaves and debt slaves till we die

 

[Caseynotes]

5 minutes ago, dmedin said:

I have to be honest and admit that I tried my hand at shorting the indices, lost money again.  TA is so much fun

oh dear, see below.

 

@TendexCapital  "Sharing something hypothetical here that perfectly illustrates how "calling levels" or turning points in the market is NOT #trading . Even when framing everything quite well, it's only analysis, which is necessary, but far from sufficient. Execution is trading!"

 

[Caseynotes]

Dax storms straight up to it's ATH on the London open to match Dow. Not sure there is enough push to break the highs so could check support from here.

[SAMMYDAVID]

I certainly don't wanna be in a mug's game. I try to learn strategies that work. I'm finally starting to get somewhere. I wouldn't be here if I was losing

[HPbrand]

48 minutes ago, dmedin said:

As a trader all you can do is be glad you haven't lost all your money ... it's a mug's game.

Sadly we are all where the system wants us to be - wage slaves and debt slaves till we die

 

Then why are you still here trading? The fact that you are still here indicates to me that you may still see hope of winning some day. So don't put yourself down.

You cannot walk around with that victim mentality expecting to lose but somehow, hoping to win at the same time. You don't learn from the winning trades here mate. The temporary setbacks and losses are to give you the education your primary, secondary and university teachers never gave you to succeed financially in life.

I hope you can change your way of thinking.

[dmedin]

17 minutes ago, HPbrand said:

Then why are you still here trading? The fact that you are still here indicates to me that you may still see hope of winning some day. So don't put yourself down.

You cannot walk around with that victim mentality expecting to lose but somehow, hoping to win at the same time. You don't learn from the winning trades here mate. The temporary setbacks and losses are to give you the education your primary, secondary and university teachers never gave you to succeed financially in life.

I hope you can change your way of thinking.

 

TA is like a broken clock.  It's hopelessly wrong almost all of the time, but on precisely two moments a day it is perfectly correct.  This is why the two most important elements of trading are timing and position sizing (there are only very certain times that you will be right, and you should never bet too much since the chances are heavily against you most of the time).

As for my continuing involvement, it's a sunken cost fallacy.  I can't believe I was fooled hook, line and sinker by such a silly and hopeless proposition.  I suppose I still do believe I can make something of it.  No doubt there is a high correlation between mental illness and trading/gambling addiction!

[dmedin]

Go long?  You lose.

Go short? You lose.

Have fun!

[Caseynotes]

7 minutes ago, dmedin said:

 

TA is like a broken clock.  It's hopelessly wrong almost all of the time, but on precisely two moments a day it is perfectly correct.  This is why the two most important elements of trading are timing and position sizing (there are only very certain times that you will be right, and you should never bet too much since the chances are heavily against you most of the time).

As for my continuing involvement, it's a sunken cost fallacy.  I can't believe I was fooled hook, line and sinker by such a silly and hopeless proposition.  I suppose I still do believe I can make something of it.  No doubt there is a high correlation between mental illness and trading/gambling addiction!

for someone who doesn't like or get TA you're always going on about it and never seem to think anything else. you know I hardly use any, after all this time you're only now seeming to get that controlling risk is more important, you should have checked the posts on random entries and how risk control and in-trade risk management were the key to profitability not TA.

[SAMMYDAVID]

you're quite amusing, dmedin. you're also correct about TA. Plenty of TA around that doesn't make the grade, probability wise.

I can suggest a simple strategy that you can try on demo, that seems to really work.

I wouldn't be here if I wasn't turning a profit.

[HPbrand]

2 hours ago, dmedin said:

As for my continuing involvement, it's a sunken cost fallacy.  I can't believe I was fooled hook, line and sinker by such a silly and hopeless proposition.  I suppose I still do believe I can make something of it.  No doubt there is a high correlation between mental illness and trading/gambling addiction!

For a minute I thought you were talking about my time with my ex 😂.

Seriously consider trading much shorter time frame if TA isn't helping you for longer term trades. I got in Nasdaq yesterday and was going to hold a few days but I got out just now. Holding even for a few days might instill a little doubt especially if you are using a lot of margin.

A person cannot expect a different result if they keep doing the same thing over and over.

[Caseynotes]

Dow looking to position for break on the US open.

M15 charts;

[Caseynotes]

"Amazon - now that is a strong break out after consolidating for almost 2 years"

[HPbrand]

Nasdaq is still going up as I thought it would...waiting for the next opportunity to enter again.

[dmedin]

3 hours ago, Caseynotes said:

Dow looking to position for break on the US open.

M15 charts;

 

The one on the left broke R2, everyone who went long got stopped out.  Then it broke R1, everyone who went short go stopped out.  Then it moved sideways, and now it's dropping again but it will probably go back up again before 9pm.  Lots of opportunities for all 'short timers' to loose oodles of money.

Here's my day trading analysis of the price action:

 

Edited February 11, 2020 by dmedin

[AndrewS]

Here is my setup for the Dax. The rally through R2 reached the high on the 22/1/2020 at 13639, reversed and approached the 20 period MA on the hourly and the 13550 region where there had been some build-up prior  to a break above 13550 during Asian trading hours and then rallied.

[Caseynotes]

49 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Lots of opportunities for all 'short timers' to loose oodles of money.

Here's my day trading analysis of the price action:

Pivot points and support and resistance levels aren't chart structure, they are levels of interest. Chart structure is formed by prior price action and the candles it leaves behind, those are your breakout levels and from there you are looking at levels of interest as possible targets or simply trouble areas where you may have to bail if price can't break through.

 

[dmedin]

1 hour ago, Caseynotes said:

Pivot points and support and resistance levels aren't chart structure, they are levels of interest. Chart structure is formed by prior price action and the candles it leaves behind, those are your breakout levels and from there you are looking at levels of interest as possible targets or simply trouble areas where you may have to bail if price can't break through.

 

 

Yes, I've made a decision to stop using Fibonacci levels on the IG trading platform as I don't really seem to be able to understand how to use them properly.  I will keep using them on PRT when I'm looking at longer range charts ('doing analysis' rather than trading).

Edited February 11, 2020 by dmedin

[dmedin]

Anyway, I've violated my own 'rules' over and over again.  I said I would try to 'master' inter-day trading before even considering intra-day trading, trade less often and only consider long-term charts.  I am not in control of myself.  I need to find another hobby 😄

Edited February 11, 2020 by dmedin

[dmedin]

More money lost using hopelessly unreliable day-trading 'signals'

[Caseynotes]

28 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Anyway, I've violated my own 'rules' over and over again.  I said I would try to 'master' inter-day trading before even considering intra-day trading, trade less often and only consider long-term charts.  I am not in control of myself.  I need to find another hobby 😄

The time frame doesn't really matter nor do your indicators, so long as you can identify long and short term trend then look to the price action to tell you which side has taken control, you won't know for how long that control will last so just try to ride it while you can. You get in on candle reversal patterns in pullbacks or obvious breakouts and set a simple, reasonable stop loss to profit target eg a straight 1:2, set and forget.

You have no idea the time frame or the market of the chart is below and it doesn't really matter.