Indices

[Caseynotes]

27 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Gonna watch them videos and re-read all me books 🤓

forget re-reading your books, once you've seen the patterns and indicators and recognise they work sometimes that's it really. Instead get to work on finding a formulae that will work for you and your markets/time frames and a good place to start is the videos. First find and so discount what doesn't work, then pick what does ok and try out on your own charts, amend and try different combos of indicators, the goal is that all important win rate v R plot on the profitability chart. 

Edited May 7, 2020 by Caseynotes

[AndrewS]

4 hours ago, Caseynotes said:

going back to the Trading Rush video backtests, his MACD with a ema filter over 100 trades came in at 62% win rate for a set 1:1.5 risk/reward so a winning strategy, so what happened when you eyeball backtested it over 20 trades on your preferred market and your preferred chart time frame?

 

Thank you for finding this. I will be paying more attention to the crossover of the 20 and 60 period moving average on the 5 min chart. Not quite the 12/26 ratio of the MACD, but still. His test of the crossover of the 9 and 21 period EMA also came out as profitable as well.

[Caseynotes]

3 minutes ago, AndrewS said:

Thank you for finding this. I will be paying more attention to the crossover of the 20 and 60 period moving average on the 5 min chart. Not quite the 12/26 ratio of the MACD, but still. His test of the crossover of the 9 and 21 period EMA also came out as profitable as well.

👍 you're welcome, I think it's a great resource and a real treasure trove.

[Caseynotes]

FTSE, S&P and Dax daily charts;

Dax and Dow H1 charts;

[dmedin]

23 hours ago, Caseynotes said:

https://chatwithtraders.com/ep-039-tom-dante/

lol he is talking about arbitrage, taking advantage of price discrepancies between brokers.  Sounds like something out of 'The New Market Wizards' (silver arbitrage in the 70s).  Then there's the old-style floor brokers who had an edge but it was over their own clients and monkey business with options pricing.  Funny how many traders have got their 'edge' from exploiting weaknesses rather than through 'analysis'.

Edited May 8, 2020 by dmedin

[dmedin]

14 hours ago, Caseynotes said:

forget re-reading your books, once you've seen the patterns and indicators and recognise they work sometimes that's it really. Instead get to work on finding a formulae that will work for you and your markets/time frames and a good place to start is the videos. First find and so discount what doesn't work, then pick what does ok and try out on your own charts, amend and try different combos of indicators, the goal is that all important win rate v R plot on the profitability chart. 

10 min chart with 20 & 50 SMA, RSI and 4 hour pivots on PRT - very nice

Prefer those MA lines over MACD

[Caseynotes]

1 minute ago, dmedin said:

lol he is talking about arbitrage, taking advantage of price discrepancies between brokers.  Sounds like something out of 'The New Market Wizards' (silver arbitrage in the 70s).  Then there's the old-style floor brokers who had an edge but it was over their own clients and monkey business with options pricing.  Funny how many traders have got their 'edge' from exploiting weaknesses rather than through 'analysis'.

yes, an interesting segment but just a fraction of a 20 year career.

[Caseynotes]

2 minutes ago, dmedin said:

10 min chart with 20 & 50 SMA, RSI and 4 hour pivots on PRT - very nice

Prefer those MA lines over MACD

great, what's the stats on the backtest?

[dmedin]

Just now, Caseynotes said:

great, what's the stats on the backtest?

Extremely positive  Price breaks 20 SMA, holds above it, then it's above 50 SMA and it carries on for some time usually - the 50 SMA is usually a support from that point and the exit is when it's beneath 50 SMA (on a candle close underneath, without a shadow touching the line itself)

[Caseynotes]

Just now, dmedin said:

Extremely positive  Price breaks 20 SMA, holds above it, then it's above 50 SMA and it carries on for some time usually - the 50 SMA is usually a support from that point and the exit is when it's beneath 50 SMA (on a candle close underneath, without a shadow touching the line itself)

great, what's the stats on the backtest?

[dmedin]

1 minute ago, Caseynotes said:

great, what's the stats on the backtest?

Still calculating

[Caseynotes]

6 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Still calculating

If you stick to a fixed RR for testing purposes (1:1.5 or 1:2) then it's just a case of counting number of  wins and  then take the win % to the profitability chart.

 

[dmedin]

'Only' 20 million unemployment claims 

Edited May 8, 2020 by dmedin

[Caseynotes]

Just now, dmedin said:

'Only' 20 million unemployment claims 

yes what a relief, it could have been really bad 😜

[_pR]

36 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

yes what a relief, it could have been really bad 😜

And the markets continue to go up!

[Caseynotes]

1 minute ago, _pR said:

And the markets continue to go up!

yes, betting on a earlier rather than a later end to global lockdown, the problem is for politicians to climb down without losing face. No easy task now that most Brits are too scared to leave their homes (Yougov polls) due to the initial fear mongering by er, politicians.

[_pR]

1 minute ago, Caseynotes said:

yes, betting on a earlier rather than a later end to global lockdown, the problem is for politicians to climb down without losing face. No easy task now that most Brits are too scared to leave their homes (Yougov polls) due to the initial fear mongering by er, politicians.

I guess I'm a W recovery believer and finding it hard to see a correlation between market news and price action at the moment. 2 days of absolute dire economic numbers out of the US and UK, yet a good number from China (if you can believe them) and news that countries are starting to loosen restrictions and the market thinks the worst is over. Surely the damage is already done and it will take a long time for economies to recover. Either that or we're in a V and I'm just bitter I didn't buy up all the stock on the 23rd of March

[Caseynotes]

2 minutes ago, _pR said:

I guess I'm a W recovery believer and finding it hard to see a correlation between market news and price action at the moment. 2 days of absolute dire economic numbers out of the US and UK, yet a good number from China (if you can believe them) and news that countries are starting to loosen restrictions and the market thinks the worst is over. Surely the damage is already done and it will take a long time for economies to recover. Either that or we're in a V and I'm just bitter I didn't buy up all the stock on the 23rd of March

yes the data news was always going to be bad from the moment they hit the switch and turned everything off. The longer it stays off the greater the number of bankruptcies and the worse things will be as more will have to start all over again.

If the on switch is hit sooner rather than later then it's a V but a W is still a possibility. 

[Caseynotes]

Dax and Dow on US market open.

H1 charts;

 

[dmedin]

The MACD isn't so bad when using a filter like the 200 SMA.

So many different things to try 🤔

[dmedin]

A 20 & 50 in combination with 200 seems to work better though 🧐 lol

[dmedin]

“If there is a silver-lining in today’s dismal jobs report, it is in the realization that the economy cannot possibly get any worse than it is right now,” said Chris Rupkey, chief economist at MUFG in New York. “Joblessness can only diminish from this point forward as many states start reopening.”

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy/u-s-labor-market-shatters-post-world-war-2-records-as-coronavirus-lockdowns-bite-idUKKBN22K1NS

😍

Edited May 8, 2020 by dmedin

[dmedin]

Today was a bad trading day ... lol

[dmedin]

MAs are no use during whipsaws.    So then another piece of the puzzle has to be, 'Do I use the principle of higher highs/lows or do I try and do an Elliot Wave count'.

Alternatively, you can just buy when price > 200 SMA and sell when price < 200 SMA.  That seems to be better than most other indicators  LOL

[AndrewS]

17 minutes ago, dmedin said:

MAs are no use during whipsaws.    So then another piece of the puzzle has to be, 'Do I use the principle of higher highs/lows or do I try and do an Elliot Wave count'.

Alternatively, you can just buy when price > 200 SMA and sell when price < 200 SMA.  That seems to be better than most other indicators  LOL

Well the lows have been defined by the 20 hour MA and the 5 hour MA suggests consolidation.

Edited May 8, 2020 by AndrewS

[Caseynotes]

2 hours ago, dmedin said:

Today was a bad trading day ... lol

yes dowry, oil looked better intraday.

[Caseynotes]

3 hours ago, dmedin said:

A 20 & 50 in combination with 200 seems to work better though 🧐 lol

we are not at home to Mr Seems while we are entertaining Mr Stats, Mr Seems is a fickle character who is constantly changing his mind due to prejudice and bias, not stable at all whereas Mr Stats is stolid and unbowed in the face of the wavering short term outlook.

[Caseynotes]

24 minutes ago, AndrewS said:

Well the lows have been defined by the 20 hour MA and the 5 hour MA suggests consolidation.

consolidating yes but not a bad Friday with a nfp at minus 20 million 🙂

[dmedin]

12 hours ago, dmedin said:

A 20 & 50 in combination with 200 seems to work better though 🧐 lol

Huh well.  I watched the guy's backtesting videos more carefully (slowing them down to 0.25x speed) and I like it a lot.  I used to think 'back testing' required writing a program and going through the complicated process of getting ProBacktester to simulate trades.

The problem with the MA crossovers is that you don't really just want to get out of the trade if you reach a limit, you want to let it run until price closes beneath the 20 SMA.

At least I can see some areas where I could have done better yesterday.

I've been trying out steps with a MACD, PSAR and 200 SMA combination (triple filter) on a 10 minute chart and it wins most of the time 😻 haha

Edited May 9, 2020 by dmedin

[dmedin]

The Ichimoku gets good marks, might need to learn that.