Indices

[Jossy]

This might be a silly question but how come actual closing prices are differnet for spot and futures on different websites ie barchart...its just for doing weekly ma when prices are different you get different entry and exit points for me. apologies if a silly question!!?

[Caseynotes]

15 minutes ago, Jossy said:

This might be a silly question but how come actual closing prices are differnet for spot and futures on different websites ie barchart...its just for doing weekly ma when prices are different you get different entry and exit points for me. apologies if a silly question!!?

Not a silly question at all, many sites such as Barchart, Tradingview, Marketwatch are quoting exchange prices but if you are trading through a broker you will be looking at the best prices the broker can offer. Brokers obtain their prices from many sources including exchanges such as major banks, hedge and pension funds, large institutions.

Having many liquidity providers allows a 24 hour market 5/7 market and is why no 2 brokers ever have the exact same quotes though they should all be close to the exchange price they track. It's also why many indicators will look different than those based solely on exchange OHLC and the inclusion of the broker's 1 hour daily Sunday candle distorts indicators even more.

[Caseynotes]

2 hours ago, Jossy said:

Thanks for this. i'm looking to do a weekly chart When will the site update to the weekly close price? at the moment the last weekly close price is Monday April 27th. or is there any other site that will have updated weekly prices?

So IG's weekly close price will be last one on the chart when IG closed their market at 10pm Friday (UK time).

[Caseynotes]

IGSquawk  @IGSquawk

13m

IGWeekendMarkets

Weekend indices update:

DAX 10575 +0.09%

DOW 23724 +0.11%

FTSE 5745 +0.07%

HANGSENG 23743 +0.11%

[dmedin]

Ominous AF  😿

[dmedin]

3 hours ago, Caseynotes said:

Having many liquidity providers allows a 24 hour market 5/7 market and is why no 2 brokers ever have the exact same quotes though they should all be close to the exchange price they track. It's also why many indicators will look different than those based solely on exchange OHLC and the inclusion of the broker's 1 hour daily Sunday candle distorts indicators even more.

And when you get to the point where different people are going off different pivots, moving averages and all the rest it ruins the effectiveness of those indicators (the self-fulfilling prophecy isn't self-fulfilled any more because different traders are getting different calculations).

It's a f-king disaster.  IG's weekend indices are useful in some circumstances but ultimately all they really care about is getting punters to put on trades, they couldn't care less about providing retail traders with the most reliable information.  (Most reliable = the information that is closest to what the big boys are using.)

Edited May 2, 2020 by dmedin

[dmedin]

Do any of you gents know what the following candlestick pattern is called?

I call it the 'Let's screw over all these f-king idiots who think you can't short the U.S. or Fade the Fed.  Haha!  With their Donchian channels and Bollinger bands showing a humongous breakout to the upside, and their dumb-@ss Fibs, they will be easy pray!' play by the Big Boys, who ALWAYS F'KING WIN - ALWAYS - and the little fish who always LOSE - ALWAYS!

[dmedin]

The Big Fish Always Win and the little people always lose - why can't any of us learn that?

Commercials building long positions = hedging against expected falling prices

Edited May 2, 2020 by dmedin

[dmedin]

Bearish key reversal day - get ready to get screwed over again.

[Caseynotes]

50 minutes ago, dmedin said:

And when you get to the point where different people are going off different pivots, moving averages and all the rest it ruins the effectiveness of those indicators (the self-fulfilling prophecy isn't self-fulfilled any more because different traders are getting different calculations).

It's a f-king disaster.  IG's weekend indices are useful in some circumstances but ultimately all they really care about is getting punters to put on trades, they couldn't care less about providing retail traders with the most reliable information.  (Most reliable = the information that is closest to what the big boys are using.)

Oh dear, must be meds time.

You keep advocating buy and hold but you're never gonna make it hodler, you keep freaking out every time price starts to pullback. Any reversal could turn out to be just a pullback (higher probability) or a major reversal (lower probability), that's the way things work.

If you're always looking for certainties you're in the wrong shop. No indicator can give a certain signal, everything would come to a halt if one did. The game is not about predicting the future it's about managing the present. Look for areas of interest and then see how price reacts when it gets there then make your move.

 

[Caseynotes]

S&P monthly chart with monthly pivot levels;

[dmedin]

24 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

Oh dear, must be meds time.

You keep advocating buy and hold but you're never gonna make it hodler, you keep freaking out every time price starts to pullback. Any reversal could turn out to be just a pullback (higher probability) or a major reversal (lower probability), that's the way things work.

If you're always looking for certainties you're in the wrong shop. No indicator can give a certain signal, everything would come to a halt if one did. The game is not about predicting the future it's about managing the present. Look for areas of interest and then see how price reacts when it gets there then make your move.

 

 

Buy and hold is the only chance the average punter has of making money on the stock exchange.  The average punter shouldn't go anywhere near leveraged trading.

You're 'woke' to the MSM so you ought to understand the way in which our elites treat us all like idiots (many of us are, to be fair) and like sheep for the slaughter (which is what most of us ultimately are - this is how is has always been throughout history).

This is all just a dumb game, and the retail punters are getting bent over a barrel day in and day out but they keep coming back for more!

[Caseynotes]

6 minutes ago, dmedin said:

This is all just a dumb game, and the retail punters are getting bent over a barrel day in and day out but they keep coming back for more!

It's only a dumb game if you're pretending to trade while actually just gambling. Your trading journal with your trading stats will tell you when to start trading live so there's no real problem.

[dmedin]

8 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

It's only a dumb game if you're pretending to trade while actually just gambling. Your trading journal with your trading stats will tell you when to start trading live so there's no real problem.

It's a dumb game if you lose money and keep doing it.

When you effectively rubbish everything the serious TA books say (ignoring key reversal days, especially when they are on a Friday and in May; ignoring weekly charts which are said to always give stronger signals than dailies; ignoring the COT, etc etc) then you're just adding to the impression that retail punters can't believe anyone or anything.

Nobody has any reason to think you've been consistently profitable from day trading either.

But I did appreciate you telling us that Mike Ashley uses spread betting.  He's in the old boys' network, so that helps to clarify for everyone reading this who the 24% are who DON'T lose their shirts from BETTING.  😉

[Caseynotes]

11 minutes ago, dmedin said:

It's a dumb game if you lose money and keep doing it.

When you effectively rubbish everything the serious TA books say (ignoring key reversal days, especially when they are on a Friday and in May; ignoring weekly charts which are said to always give stronger signals than dailies; ignoring the COT, etc etc) then you're just adding to the impression that retail punters can't believe anyone or anything.

Nobody has any reason to think you've been consistently profitable from day trading either.

But I did appreciate you telling us that Mike Ashley uses spread betting.  He's in the old boys' network, so that helps to clarify for everyone reading this who the 24% are who DON'T lose their shirts from BETTING.  😉

you put too much faith in books and you're forever looking for certainty in a game ruled by probability, don't waste your time. None of your indicators is worth a fig if someone decides to pick up the phone and buy $100 million of whatever. 

As for profitable trading I'm certainly the only one on this forum who adds content throughout every day and have done since the forum started early 2016. That speaks for itself and I really don't care what the 76% think.  

[dmedin]

28 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

you put too much faith in books and you're forever looking for certainty in a game ruled by probability, don't waste your time. None of your indicators is worth a fig if someone decides to pick up the phone and buy $100 million of whatever. 

As for profitable trading I'm certainly the only one on this forum who adds content throughout every day and have done since the forum started early 2016. That speaks for itself and I really don't care what the 76% think.  

 

Well I hope you're not doing it for free (i.e., technical support for IG) so I do hope there's an arrangement there somewhere.

As for posting charts - ain't helpful.  Anyone can do that.  Just like anyone can be an 'analyst'.

I saw you being bullish right in the middle of the slump, BTW.  Don't think I don't notice things ... 😉

 

[Caseynotes]

4 hours ago, dmedin said:

 

Well I hope you're not doing it for free (i.e., technical support for IG) so I do hope there's an arrangement there somewhere.

As for posting charts - ain't helpful.  Anyone can do that.  Just like anyone can be an 'analyst'.

I saw you being bullish right in the middle of the slump, BTW.  Don't think I don't notice things ... 😉

 

I post for free because I've seen it all before so 90% of the questions that turn up on the forum are about the old platform, the new one, mt4, prt and dma and are easy to answer, so why wouldn't I?

I understand you are bitter, you jumped into full time trading a year ago thinking you could pick it up as you went along, you ignored any advice because you always knew better. You never needed a plan or needed to collect any stats because you always knew better. How's that worked out for you?

Posting charts with just the proven levels of interest is beneficial and reiterates the point that indicators are not automatically necessary as they were only ever supposed to be used as a general guide anyway, I noted you loved and hated them so much but used and needed them all the time anyway. 

Of course I'm naturally bullish, just need politicians to stop listening to moronic medicos and switch the economy back on, simple.

[AndrewS]

7 hours ago, dmedin said:

Do any of you gents know what the following candlestick pattern is called?

I call it the 'Let's screw over all these f-king idiots who think you can't short the U.S. or Fade the Fed.  Haha!  With their Donchian channels and Bollinger bands showing a humongous breakout to the upside, and their dumb-@ss Fibs, they will be easy pray!' play by the Big Boys, who ALWAYS F'KING WIN - ALWAYS - and the little fish who always LOSE - ALWAYS!

 

I don’t give much weight to the analysis of people like Steve Nison because of the focus on reversals.

I don’t use Donchian channels, Bollinger bans, Fibs or trade breakouts.

4 hours ago, dmedin said:

 

As for posting charts - ain't helpful.  Anyone can do that.  Just like anyone can be an 'analyst'.

 

Not anyone can see at a glance what someone who trades the same setups over and over across highly correlated markets sees.

https://vault.si.com/vault/2011/08/08/its-all-about-anticipation

 

“Before occlusion studies shed light on perceptual expertise in sports (the first significant tests were performed by Canadian researcher Janet Starkes on volleyball players in 1975), studies of chess masters were beginning to illuminate the underlying processes. In famous experiments starting in the 1940s, Dutch psychologist and chess master Adriaan de Groot gave grandmasters and club chess players five seconds to look at chessboards with the pieces arranged in game scenarios. Then the arrangement was taken away, and De Groot had the players reconstruct the board they had just seen. Grandmasters could remember the position of nearly every piece, while decent club players could reconstruct only about half the board. De Groot and subsequent researchers determined that the masters were "chunking" information—rather than remember the position of every piece separately, the grandmasters grasped small chunks of meaningful information, which allowed them to place the pieces. We all use this strategy to an extent in daily life. For example, while it would be difficult to remember 15 random words, it's much less difficult to remember a coherent 15-word sentence because one need only recall bits of meaning and grammar, which coordinate the order of words in your head.

 

Moreover, to test whether the grandmasters' skill is the result of game experience or prodigious memory, psychologists have presented master and club players with chess boards containing pieces randomly arranged in a way that did not make sense in the context of a game. In that circumstance the experts' memories are no better than the club players'.”

[HPbrand]

17 hours ago, dmedin said:

You're 'woke' to the MSM so you ought to understand the way in which our elites treat us all like idiots (many of us are, to be fair) and like sheep for the slaughter (which is what most of us ultimately are - this is how is has always been throughout history).

You made me chuckle haha... The person I thought will never understand might be the only who will. 

[dmedin]

19 hours ago, Caseynotes said:

I post for free because I've seen it all before so 90% of the questions that turn up on the forum are about the old platform, the new one, mt4, prt and dma and are easy to answer, so why wouldn't I?

I understand you are bitter, you jumped into full time trading a year ago thinking you could pick it up as you went along, you ignored any advice because you always knew better. You never needed a plan or needed to collect any stats because you always knew better. How's that worked out for you?

Posting charts with just the proven levels of interest is beneficial and reiterates the point that indicators are not automatically necessary as they were only ever supposed to be used as a general guide anyway, I noted you loved and hated them so much but used and needed them all the time anyway. 

Of course I'm naturally bullish, just need politicians to stop listening to moronic medicos and switch the economy back on, simple.

 

I ain't bitter yo, just spittin' the home truths. 🤓

[dmedin]

Bullard, in a Wall Street Journal interview, said he worried about the prospect of an economic depression if both the shutdown goes on too long and the reopening is not handled well.

“I think we are taking depression risk here if we are not careful and if we don’t execute this properly over the next couple of months,” Bullard said, suggesting a “far more granular, far more risk-based” approach to the timing of states or industries coming back online.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-usa-fed/fed-officials-worry-about-lasting-economic-scars-from-crisis-idUKKBN22D66G

 

Retail punters can't win ... the Fed won't give them free cash when their accounts are inevitably wiped out, like it does to the Big Boys

[dmedin]

“Nothing can stop America when you get right down to it,” Buffett said. “I will bet on America the rest of my life.”

Says the Old Codger.  Given that he's 89 that doesn't give America much longer

[dan-is-dead]

“Nothing can stop America when you get right down to it,” Buffett said. “I will bet on America the rest of my life.”

Says the Old Codger.  Given that he's 89 that doesn't give America much longer 

I did think something similar myself  ....but didnt have the nerve to say it...quite like that  

 

[dan-is-dead]

That  was supposed to be a :)...

 

 

[dmedin]

On 02/05/2020 at 23:43, AndrewS said:

I don’t give much weight to the analysis of people like Steve Nison because of the focus on reversals.

And how is that working out for you?

Making any money?

Caseynotes has been bullish right in the middle of a huge drop - if he's 'eating his own dog food' he's losing money. 

Comparison with chess - not sure about that.  Chess is a noble competition and 100% skill based. 

 

Trading is more like being down at the casinos, where everybody is trying to cheat everybody else out of their money.

[dmedin]

3 hours ago, dan-is-dead said:

“Nothing can stop America when you get right down to it,” Buffett said. “I will bet on America the rest of my life.”

Says the Old Codger.  Given that he's 89 that doesn't give America much longer 

I did think something similar myself  ....but didnt have the nerve to say it...quite like that  

•  

 

 

 

That old fossil should have retired a long time ago ...

What disgusts me most is people thinking they can be 'just like him' by hanging off his every word.

When in reality, he's a 'one in a million' who just got lucky. 

 

[dmedin]

The vast, vast, vast, vast majority of everyone who plays on the stock market or spread bets loses money.  Regardless of their IQ or anything else.

Not because they don't have a plan.

Not because they didn't learn TA properly.

Not because  they read a chart wrong.

But pure and simply because the odds are enormously against you from the start, and the best you can ever do is reduce them from hopelessly negative to overwhelmingly negative. 

Yeah, I do think this should be rebranded as gambling and regulated as such.

[Caseynotes]

FTSE and S&P daily with weekly pivot levels. 

Dax and Dow H1 with daily pivot levels.

 

[Caseynotes]

5 hours ago, dmedin said:

The vast, vast, vast, vast majority of everyone who plays on the stock market or spread bets loses money.  Regardless of their IQ or anything else.

Not because they don't have a plan.

Not because they didn't learn TA properly.

Not because  they read a chart wrong.

But pure and simply because the odds are enormously against you from the start, and the best you can ever do is reduce them from hopelessly negative to overwhelmingly negative. 

Yeah, I do think this should be rebranded as gambling and regulated as such.

lol, you've been doing this a few months and are now telling everyone how the industry should be run 🤣

All along it was pointed out you were just gambling because you clearly had no repeatable, verified process. You ignored all advice and have now concluded this is all just gambling 🤣

 

[dmedin]

'Sell in May' - look for a break beneath 50% retracement, 20 day SMA and 50 day SMA

Here's a chart with at least a semblance of reliable volume figures: