Jump to content

Recommended Posts

So a massive drop on the day in the US session, worth taking a step back and looking again at the weekly chart we see Dow currently held up at it's weekly support level with price looking to have bottomed out on the shorter time frames for now. Dax has been halted at it's monthly support level while Nikkei has returned to it's long term resistance levels having broken out several weeks ago. FTSE has cleared it's weekly support zone but still a long way from it's monthly support level. Should be a very interesting day tomorrow.

image.thumb.png.fb2fc5d62b79c8fe0b973371fb577063.png

Share this post


Link to post

About DAX

This could go either way (as usual😁)

We should get a sell off when the neckline breaks in the big head and shoulder formation

But will it be a false sell with a fast drop and a fast recovery (v-bottom) and then up to new all time highs 

or is this the real thing with a long term top and a bearmarket? 

Time will tell😜

The target for the HS formation is 9 600 ish (2 000 neck to top) 

Share this post


Link to post

Ooh mate, I thought you had posted a chart, I'm so disappointed ☹️

But yes I can see the neckline and it's not too far away and also seeing the drop is continuing into the US close and Asian open.

You never know.

 image.thumb.png.443b1d2eb5c5ba914d474433d89f2e00.png

Share this post


Link to post

Just noticed the mistake in the pic in post above, the figures should be 2000 not 200.

Some further downside overnight halted at 3am bst but Dax and FTSE look to be itching to go further this morning while Dow looks content with 25177 for now.

image.thumb.png.683986ea8ef3fa4b565a904c9c36e377.png

image.thumb.png.96ba3b39935bbc5bbc63c307838d54f8.png

Share this post


Link to post

In a post, somewhere, can't remember which thread, I observed that the US large Caps looked bearish while the FTSE and Nasdaq were giving some bullish signals.  I wondered whether we could see divergence, but should have known better.  The stock indices remain joined at the hip and I suspect they will all the way down too.  However the question is whether this is it or not.  I have been waiting for a strong retrace of this nature in an EW3-4 fashion to set up a final leg to top out the market and this looks like it at present.  Will we see a sharp "buy the dip" reaction or is this really the end?  Answers on a post card please...

Share this post


Link to post

Joined at the hip is pretty accurate. The Dow and Dax on the 5 minute chart could be dance partners >...

image.thumb.png.c3ee185f39ace4f72c70dad27016e6ab.png 

Share this post


Link to post

One additional thought about all this.  If this is the end then why hasn't USD taken off?  It may yet of course but so far it has gone in the opposite direction, albeit only in a small move.  Maybe it has all gone into bitcoin?  (Ah! maybe not... - sorry couldn't resist 🤡).  Therefore I remain cautions about jumping on the Bearish bandwagon (which as a perma bear is saying something I recognise!) there will always be another opportunity.  I am sticking with my road-maps on FX and therefore also on everything else for now until the market confirms it of tells me something else is happening.

Share this post


Link to post

I've often found the US Markets like to put in highs & lows during it's own session. Well we've taken out the high, surely the low is unthinkable, or is it ?  ( excuse the "squashed up" chart )

Capture ws.PNG

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post

True enough the rout was started on the US open yesterday and then continued round the globe/clock. There was a push down attempt on the US open in 4 of the last 5 sessions and I'm just looking at the Dow 1 hour leaning against the recent low looking as innocent as you like just waiting for 2:30.

 image.thumb.png.8e14d4105ec36cd95724dbfacc8f6926.png

Share this post


Link to post

Nice analysis @elle, Out of hours can be a pain overall but useful perspective.  Interestingly for me the 2 drops you have highlighted with arrows both follow an A-B-C retrace pattern, well the current one isn't complete yet but still.  If we are to see a rally out of this it will have to start at or soon after US open I feel.  Quite normal to get an initial move the wrong way and then a turn into the trend for the day on opening, so that could be an initial further drop (call it a catch up on Asia and Europe drop if you like) and then a turn and rally.  MY Daily Dow chart shows similar support level to yours around the 25,000 mark, a zone I had picked out before the current bear move.  It also coincides with a supporting trend-line.

DJI-Daily_111018.thumb.png.aedd3b0e45a1fc67910dc3df31200cbe.png

Share this post


Link to post

Seeing on the 1 hour charts the indices are having another go at a push lower with FTSE tracking Dow this time. ...And in the time taken to write that they have all followed.

image.thumb.png.c5c1547288e4b3e0bea1be3347912b8f.png

Share this post


Link to post

Who knows? It initially powered straight through to 24890 nearly an hour ago before pulling back, only 20 min til US close so will be interesting to see what the Asian market think of it. 

Share this post


Link to post

Yeah let's see if @elleanalysis that out of hours trading does the job.  Wouldn't be the first time the pros waited for out of hours to make their move...

Share this post


Link to post

It was most disconcerting yesterday morning to find on the Dow chart that my auto fractal support/resistance drawing app had been completely overwhelmed and I was forced to draw my own **** horizontal lines. This morning the same has happened on the Dax! When will this madness end? 

The FTSE has seen twice as much action out of hours of late than during a typical day with a continued drop then recovery to return to yesterday's close and similar story with the Dax which has just backed away from yesterday's high.

Not too much on the calendar today though maybe something out of the G20 meeting. China and US to start trade talks again announced overnight may provide a boost.

image.thumb.png.3a6c6be88c48f232a2097515a422d7d2.png

 

 

Share this post


Link to post

Dax taking off on the now, funny start on The Euro open Dax and FTSE took off in opposite directions and Dax had to shame faced turn around.

 

 

Share this post


Link to post

All 4 major stock indices that I track bounced off long term support yesterday, really getting going in after hours trading...

Dow/SP500 did it on Daily chart support whereas for Nasdaq and FTSE it was weekly chart.

DJI-Daily_121018.thumb.png.0695965457ead90304242a76aa78508a.pngSP500-Daily_121018.thumb.png.a5074417213b15676f8315e01d27bccf.pngNasdaq_Wkly_121018.thumb.png.ee89efdbf68badb38812b6240b94503c.pngFTSE100-Weekly_121018.thumb.png.8ca17f0d094a8ab8c468d02eabfbec13.png

Share this post


Link to post

All 4 putting in something resembling an inverted head and shoulders on the 1 hour charts, with failed attempts to push lower on the last 3 candles could make for an interesting Friday afternoon.

image.thumb.png.1563406a6cf71de242f6a7888b8f498e.png 

Share this post


Link to post

Start the week so a recap of the weekly chart and the big question is will Dow seek to retest the low at 24895 or look above for resistance? The 1 Hour shows Dow trapped in the same triangle pattern as S&P through there is a short term support level at 25200 and that level is key for the morning session.

Dax on the 7 am Euro open is looking to push lower but lacks conviction and is waiting for the London open to decide direction. 

 

image.thumb.png.03e34ba1bc6e4f349c85dfa3762b88d3.png

image.thumb.png.3bdaf68f350b6c39ffe19b50ffe83aab.png

Share this post


Link to post

Dow puts in a doji 1 hour bar at the triangle upper line so not decisive either way. FTSE and Dax have bounced off support and hovering mid range. Looks like it's up to the US open (20 min) to make a move.

image.thumb.png.22ec7bc8c5c6c7826ea02cce61a7492c.png

Share this post


Link to post

The Dow giving an example of price just dribbling out of a triangle pattern sideways rather than exploding out up or down but is building on successive short term support levels to keep retesting resistance. Currently looking for downside below 25172 or a test up of 25484.

Dax is positioned well for a test of the old monthly support turned resistance at 11700 while FTSE looks to resistance at 7078. These two are following the recent Nikkei move up.

The Dow daily is an interesting bear pennant made up of dojis, obviously bearish but these recent moves have been more sentiment based than technical.

1 hour charts (note I have changed round the positions). 

Daily Dow.

image.thumb.png.287b5c173021c23d0cbdc86932097a20.png

image.thumb.png.71f48a3b7171dcbebe175204717849c4.png

Share this post


Link to post

Your content will need to be approved by a moderator

Guest
You are commenting as a guest. If you have an account, please sign in.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • #IGForexChat.png

  • Member Statistics

    • Total Topics
      5,524
    • Total Posts
      22,698
    • Total Members
      27,550
    Newest Member
    Joe77
    Joined 16/10/18 14:01
  • Our picks

    • Hurricane season in the US - Where to look for trading opportunities
      Hurricane Michael is already regarded as one of the strongest hurricanes ever to hit US. The worst hit areas of Florida’s northwest coast saw significant damage to residential property, along with President Trump authorizing FEMA to step in and coordinate disaster efforts. 

      Even though the worst might have already passed, the 2018 North Atlantic hurricane season is likely to have sizable effect for the next seven weeks. The effect on the markets can be notable around this time, with the following sectors likely to see an increase in volatility.
      • 0 replies
    • UK Data to forecast stability going into Brexit talks? - EMEA Brief 16 Oct
      U.K. monthly average earnings and monthly unemployment release today at 9:30 BST. Earnings forecast to be stable at 2.6% whilst the unemployment rate is forecast to be 4%. The releases could be an important signal to the current economic health of the UK.
      • 0 replies
    • Does volatility affect IPOs?
      The music entertainment arm of Tencent, which has 800 million users across a variety of platforms in China, had originally planned to go public in the United States imminently. The IPO was initially set to launch as soon as this week but has now reportedly been delayed because of the recent global sell-off. It is not the first company to pull out or postpone an IPO in the recent weeks, and whilst Tencent have declined to comment on the decision, it’s likely to be on the back of volatility seen in the equity markets.
      • 0 replies
×