Dax & Dow

[Caseynotes]

2 hours ago, jonah88888 said:

Hi Casey, how do you determine S1 etc?

Hi @jonah88888, I use the 'classic' version also called 'standard' as can be found as default on the Pivot Points indicator that comes with most charting platforms. The reason being it is the one most commonalty used and so the levels are more likely to trigger a response.

I started using them because previously for intraday support and resistance levels I was using the fractal auto S/R marker but it was always delayed so looked for something leading and found the standard pivots were usually well matched by the later arriving auto S/R marker.

https://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:technical_indicators:pivot_points

[Caseynotes]

Looking at the H1 Dow and solid support at 26493. Though the chart is looking like it's rolling over it's more a case of simply decreasing momentum due to a lack of news, good or bad, though that should be set to change with the G20 starting Friday.

Currently has worked it's way to be sitting on top of the pivot waiting for the markets to open. Whomever controls the pivot controls direction.

Dax H1 just taking a rest already halfway to R1 (yesterday's high). European open in 10 minutes, the more influential London open at 8am.

[Caseynotes]

Dax clears R1 but then held up as Dow decides to check support having tagged R1.

H1 charts;

[Caseynotes]

Dax followed Dow down after toying with R1, now back up to the pivot. The drop was sudden on no news. 

M5 & M1

Edited June 27, 2019 by Caseynotes

[WallStFoxy]

@Caseynotes

I don't know but I think wall st. traders must want to follow the s&p ATH of last week so Friday and last Day of the month tomorrow we could see a big rally on wall st. Thursday/Friday that would leave us with a big stop hunt before the rally possibly. 👿

[Caseynotes]

Both Dax and |Dow took an early morning walk to find resistance and have both since returned to the pivot to wait on the open. G20 meetings today and through the weekend but no real news release times, may just have to rely on tweets 🙂

Probably not a good week for holding positions open after US market close without some sort of safety net.

[WallStFoxy]

@Caseynotes

Dow to hit 27000 by 22:00 today, Maybe!!! 

[Caseynotes]

5 minutes ago, Foxy said:

@Caseynotes

Dow to hit 27000 by 22:00 today, Maybe!!! 

That would be fun 🙂 but the ATH? maybe a bit too speculative. Interestingly on top of the G20 uncertainty is today's Week end, Month end and Q2 end flows and I think Trump and Xi aren't meeting til tomorrow so we may end up seeing an exiting of longs before the close instead.

[dmedin]

More sideways, money-losing action on the indices front recently ... same with FX and commodities ... lots of opportunities to lose money when day trading

[Caseynotes]

Correct, but of course any market only spends about 30% of the time trending one way or the other anyway so being able to spot those times is crucial. 

 

 

[WallStFoxy]

1 hour ago, Caseynotes said:

That would be fun 🙂 but the ATH? maybe a bit too speculative. Interestingly on top of the G20 uncertainty is today's Week end, Month end and Q2 end flows and I think Trump and Xi aren't meeting til tomorrow so we may end up seeing an exiting of longs before the close instead.

That we remain to see, I am long on the DAX and hope to close sometime after 21:00 all being well.

[Caseynotes]

6 minutes ago, Foxy said:

That we remain to see, I am long on the DAX and hope to close sometime after 21:00 all being well.

May well work out fine if Dax can carry itself over this 12334 which has held it up repeatedly since Monday.

[WallStFoxy]

49 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

May well work out fine if Dax can carry itself over this 12334 which has held it up repeatedly since Monday.

It's been the DOW that's pulled us back every day this week, I just hope we get a bull run for the end of Month. Proreal has R3 at 2490 so I've set that as TP, if it happens it will be a great day.

[WallStFoxy]

Wall st is looking for long stops around 2550 Maybe?

[Caseynotes]

 

3 hours ago, Foxy said:

It's been the DOW that's pulled us back every day this week, I just hope we get a bull run for the end of Month. Proreal has R3 at 2490 so I've set that as TP, if it happens it will be a great day.

Dax and Dow went different ways after the 2:45 US PMI number was down then Dow got a lift at 3:00 when the consumer sentiment came in higher.

@Foxy, that's quite a big difference in the R3 number, I get your R3 figure if I switch the calc from standard to 'Woodies', might pay to check.

Dax lifted to run into R2 to the tick.

[WallStFoxy]

On 28/06/2019 at 17:19, Caseynotes said:

@Foxy, that's quite a big difference in the R3 number, I get your R3 figure if I switch the calc from standard to 'Woodies', might pay to check.

@Caseynotes

I have noticed you often have different levels to the Pro-Real Charts but they work fine and are well respected so I have no problem with that. They say the pivot point formula I use is  (H+L+C) / 3 and the exact level of  R3 was 12487.3

I don't have to work them out, they are on my chart every day and work fine. In fact R2 was 12411 and was very well respected all morning so I guess it's not a case of right or wrong it's what you like to use.

[Caseynotes]

26 minutes ago, Foxy said:

@Caseynotes

I have noticed you often have different levels to the Pro-Real Charts but they work fine and are well respected so I have no problem with that. They say the pivot point formula I use is  (H+L+C) / 3 and the exact level of  R3 was 12487.3

I don't have to work them out, they are on my chart every day and work fine. In fact R2 was 12411 and was very well respected all morning so I guess it's not a case of right or wrong it's what you like to use.

That's interesting @Foxy, yes I'm using the standard version which is H+L+C/3 for the pivot point, though there can be slight variations in the calc of the R and S numbers. Mine auto calc each day as well but there is also the choice of 4 other versions of which Woodies is one. I've got two other pivot indicators and was just comparing the 3 of them and see that they are all the same and match your values except for the R3 and S3 on the one I've been using so I need to ditch this one and use one of the others, thanks.

[WallStFoxy]

3 hours ago, Caseynotes said:

Mine auto calc each day as well but there is also the choice of 4 other versions of which Woodies is one. I've got two other pivot indicators and was just comparing the 3 of them and see that they are all the same and match your values except for the R3 and S3 on the one I've been using so I need to ditch this one and use one of the others, thanks.

@Caseynotes

You are welcome I hope it helps, I love my pro-real charts & wouldn't change for the world. Previously I used MT4 charts and was very happy with them but never found a good pivot Indicator for them, some how they never seemed right.

[Guest jonah88888]

On 27/06/2019 at 12:57, Caseynotes said:

Hi @jonah88888, I use the 'classic' version also called 'standard' as can be found as default on the Pivot Points indicator that comes with most charting platforms. The reason being it is the one most commonalty used and so the levels are more likely to trigger a response.

I started using them because previously for intraday support and resistance levels I was using the fractal auto S/R marker but it was always delayed so looked for something leading and found the standard pivots were usually well matched by the later arriving auto S/R marker.

https://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:technical_indicators:pivot_points

Thanks Casey. I am using the same, but, daily, I draw it out. I am using ProReal Time, and it has it's own resistance,and support which is slightly different from mine. Many thanks.

[Caseynotes]

@jonah88888 & @Foxy,  the  reason I've been experimenting with so many different ones is to find one that ignores IG's Sunday 1 hour daily candle which badly distorts the calculation for Monday's pivot and S&Rs, they need to be calc'ed from Friday's HLC.

IG's own PP indy for MT4 and the online platform won't do it, it's been a few years since I used PRT and can't remember if it does or doesn't.

[Caseynotes]

Dax and Dow made the effort to check the pivot then decided to crack on towards a test of the Sunday candle high. The European open might be a bit more lively than usual with so much premarket PA but overall looking for a directional day.

[Caseynotes]

Both Dax and Dow push up on the London open, Dax has R1 just ahead at 12650 while Dow has the weekly chart resistance level at 26909 and the monthly chart (and R1) resistance at 26951.

[Caseynotes]

After the surge this morning both back down towards the pivot and dropping below in Dow's case.

[Caseynotes]

Both at the pivot, bears trying to take control on the London open.

H1 charts;

[Caseynotes]

After some meandering below the pivot on low volume both look now towards a retest of the pivot.

[Caseynotes]

Both Dax and Dow have climbed above the pivot so looking to R1 R2 for targets on entries on the lower time frames though will be watching the 7am and 8am market opening times for any hint of reversal.

[Caseynotes]

Dax struggling at R2 as Dow tags and pulls back from R1.

Dax M1 Dow H1 charts;

[Caseynotes]

6 hours ago, Caseynotes said:

Both Dax and Dow have climbed above the pivot so looking to R1 R2 for targets on entries on the lower time frames though will be watching the 7am and 8am market opening times for any hint of reversal.

To catch up with these two, in this mornings post we saw both were above the daily pivot so as stated above we were looking at Resistance targets above (R1 & R2), price rechecked the pivot before setting off, Dax pushed straight through R1, had a bit of difficulty at R2 and fell back after getting half way to R3.

Dow rechecked the pivot and set off to tag R1 but has gone no further.

US traders will be reluctant to get in too deep and it's generally a half day today with the US public holiday tomorrow so not expect too much this afternoon.

[Caseynotes]

Dow perched on the prior ATH and monthly resistance level 26951. Expecting a continuation blue day, may see a recheck of the pivots early on but will be looking for resistance level targets so long as price can stay above the pivot.

 

[Caseynotes]

Very lethargic today, any markets moving out there?