Dax & Dow

[Caseynotes]

US GDP came in as per expectation but dow struggling to continue this short term up move, next up is the US market open at 2:30.

[Caseynotes]

Several attempts later and dow still unable to cross back above the broken weekly support level 25214 (red). Dax in a similar position with it's daily support level 11924 (orange). 

[WallStFoxy]

Tomorrow is Friday and the last day of the month, let's see if that can stir the bulls.

[Caseynotes]

After the overnight drop dax and dow will be trying to hold onto short term support of the recent low, dax 11798 and dow 24934. Dow currently at S2 and not sure which way to head from here.

[Caseynotes]

Dax looking to bottom at S4 around 11670 and follow dow as it tries to push back up.

[Bell]

@Caseynotes agreed - all about the strength of the bounce.

We need strong bounce above 12,200 to start to weaken downward  cycle on Dax and a 25500 upward thrust on INDU.

G20 will start to define the markets. I think this could be huge one - what goes off between Xi and Trump here will define matters for a quarter at least.

Would look at DAX very carefully do not like what is happening in Europe. Banks stink. Manufacturing weak of course this has nothing to do with China... in Merkel's eyes.

The problem with Europe was not the loose economic union... it is our insane political one... they have built a new Habsburg empire and that did not end well.

 

[Caseynotes]

yeah @Bell, I suspect you are right, an actual meet at the G20 between Trump and Xi was only officially agreed yesterday and whatever comes out of that will be the next big driver. I don't worry myself too much about the longer term we have all seen these major markets turn on a dime, or a two sentence Trump tweet even.

Also saw an interesting EU wide poll during the week reporting that for the first time ever the greater % of those polled though the EU would not survive in the long term 😧

[phillo]

DAX   would like a GAP fill

[Caseynotes]

The dax open on Sunday was delayed 2 min for some reason and we've ended with a gap on dax but not on dow. Both midway between the pivot and S1 and waiting for direction (Sunday's candle not included in the pivot calc). 

[Caseynotes]

Dax and dow moving towards the daily pivot.

[Caseynotes]

Dax tags the pivot to the tick before pulling back, M5 chart;

[Caseynotes]

Both dax and dow at their respective daily pivot and ... while writing dow just popped up.

[Caseynotes]

Dax looking to push on up on the European open, Dow waiting.

[Caseynotes]

Dax races straight to R2 after the London open;

M30 charts;

[Guest JLZM1999]

selling opportunities now from R2 for DAX ?

 

[phillo]

@JLZM1999      still in an uptrend. I personally would wait for a break

[Caseynotes]

5 minutes ago, JLZM1999 said:

selling opportunities now from R2 for DAX ?

 

Perhaps, that's a very strong move up though so I wouldn't be rushing in to bet against it. Price seems happy to be hanging around just below R2  at the moment, at some point it will move on and the key is always to be looking to trade as price has done with a level and is moving away on to the next level whether that be up or down and there will be a pull back along the way to get aboard. 

[phillo]

I have found that if there's going to be a short squeeze, Tuesday is the most likely of days for it to happen. They're not called "Turnaround Tuesdays" for nothing

[Bell]

Believe we have a crack at the long side as we are technically oversold. But we must be very cautious.

Would look to trade dow for a move to the 200dma at 25400 - more than that is a bonus.

Always one tweet away from the trade turning fast.

Merkel's coalition toast wait for Dax to weaken and short hard. That market looks very precarious.

Merkel is weak and Trump will apply more pressure... it's in his interest

[Bell]

16 minutes ago, elle said:

I have found that if there's going to be a short squeeze, Tuesday is the most likely of days for it to happen. They're not called "Turnaround Tuesdays" for nothing

I think and pray you are right. Market feels like it needs a bounce.

Mid term quite bearish.

Short term do not want to be forced short till I am ready.

[WallStFoxy]

31 minutes ago, JLZM1999 said:

selling opportunities now from R2 for DAX ?

 

@JLZM1999

Maybe but I find it best to wait and see how it looks at the end of the day, there could be an attempt at 12000. I think the first two or three pullbacks will find buyers.

 

[Caseynotes]

Looks happy enough just hanging around R2 while Dow goes on a pullback, may see a stronger attempt on R2 if/when Dow heads up again.

[phillo]

45 minutes ago, elle said:

@JLZM1999      still in an uptrend. I personally would wait for a break

there's the break  

[WallStFoxy]

20 minutes ago, Bell said:

I think and pray you are right. Market feels like it needs a bounce.

Mid term quite bearish.

Short term do not want to be forced short till I am ready.

@Bell

I think 25200 may have a chance on the Dow with 12000 ish on the Dax. Missed the train this Morning couldn't get in the station for stampeding Bulls, Looking for a pullback, good chance at the open of Wall St. 

[WallStFoxy]

34 minutes ago, Foxy said:

@Bell

I think 25200 may have a chance on the Dow with 12000 ish on the Dax. Missed the train this Morning couldn't get in the station for stampeding Bulls, Looking for a pullback, good chance at the open of Wall St. 

@Bell

I've had second thoughts on that, I'm out for the day it's too risky to buy @ this level in this trend, I'm going to wait and see if we go short overnight.

[Bell]

@foxy You may be right. would only look at this as a small position play.

Mid and Long term bearish - too much out there.

Technically oversold. But below 200 dma is never good.

Would be looking to put much larger position short later on.

[Caseynotes]

Dow bounce looks to be on the pre-market open;

[WallStFoxy]

29 minutes ago, Bell said:

@foxy You may be right. would only look at this as a small position play.

Mid and Long term bearish - too much out there.

Technically oversold. But below 200 dma is never good.

Would be looking to put much larger position short later on.

@Bell

A quick look at the monthly shows 11650 as significant support, I think that and a new Month could explain today's Bullish mood. April very Bullish, May very Bearish, June?????? it may be the worm has turned but it's worth waiting out a day to be sure because if 11650 breaks on the Dax I think it will go down like the Titanic. 

[Bell]

2 hours ago, Foxy said:

@Bell

A quick look at the monthly shows 11650 as significant support, I think that and a new Month could explain today's Bullish mood. April very Bullish, May very Bearish, June?????? it may be the worm has turned but it's worth waiting out a day to be sure because if 11650 breaks on the Dax I think it will go down like the Titanic. 

Could do a long Dow and short Dax hedge.

[WallStFoxy]

39 minutes ago, Bell said:

Could do a long Dow and short Dax hedge.

@Bell

That's a bit like betting the same horse will come first and last I don't get that.