Dax & Dow

[Caseynotes]

After an hour of nothing on the European open Dax moves up on the London open towards R1 (taken from Friday's data, not Sunday's) Dow in pursuit.

H1 charts;

Edited August 12, 2019 by Caseynotes

[Caseynotes]

Dax completes a trip to R1 then down to S1.

[Caseynotes]

Both starting out below the pivot suggesting an initial test of support most likely. Ger CPI data just came in as expected but has the econ sentiment at 10:00 may be very bad if the run of poor data over the last months continues.

[Caseynotes]

German sentiment data worse than the bad figure expected, Dax pushes down through 11608, S1 below at 11557 but Dax will keep an eye on Dow which is holding at around 25790.

[Caseynotes]

Dax and Dow below the pivot tried lower after the London open but bought back up before reaching yesterday's lows so looks like next a test of the pivot.

H1 charts;

[Caseynotes]

Dax above the pivot but remains trapped under 11546 while Dow stuck at R1 25816 waiting for the US open.

H1 charts;

[Caseynotes]

Both head up towards R1 on the London open, pivots calculated from Friday's data (not Sunday).

H1 charts;

[Caseynotes]

Looking for continuation upward today though as ever may see a check of the Pivot first though already well on the way to R1. Yesterday's highs immediately ahead, Dax at 11761 and Dow at 26238.

[Caseynotes]

Dax tested yesterday's high this morning then back down to test the pivot just now, Dow also at the daily pivot little moved by the London session and waiting for the US open.

H1 charts;

[tehka]

A bearish engulfing pattern appears on Dow daily chart and have bounced off 20EMA. 

[Caseynotes]

4 hours ago, tehka said:

A bearish engulfing pattern appears on Dow daily chart and have bounced off 20EMA. 

Yes, I saw that falling away last night but trying to recover since, await the London open with interest, so far Dax and Dow have recovered half of yesterday's losses.

H1 charts;

[Caseynotes]

Both Dax and Dow are above the daily pivot and currently retesting so if the pivot holds will be looking for longs towards R1. Obvious strong resistance above at the daily chart resistance levels (orange).

H1 charts.

[Caseynotes]

Starting the day having moved back up to resistance again, both are above the pivot and just below R1, as ever may see an initial check of support before an attempt to break out higher. Lots of Fed speak throughout today so could get jumpy.

[Caseynotes]

Same morning picture keeps presenting itself, need to go back to the 15th for something different. Early check of support, both are above the pivot so will be looking for buy opportunities on the lower time frames.

[Caseynotes]

Following on from this morning's post price has continued the climb after a check of support. Dax clear of yesterday's highs while Dow looking to follow.

H1 charts;

[Caseynotes]

Dax tags R1 to the tick.

M5 charts;

[Caseynotes]

Dax starting above the pivot while Dow starts below so lack of sync as to prospective direction this morning, if not the European open then the London open should decide it. Gotta be either a test of support or a test of resistance.

[Caseynotes]

Dax tags S1 to the tick.

H1 charts;

[Caseynotes]

Dax continues through S1 as Dow moves down to tag it's own S1 to the tick.

H1 charts;

[dmedin]

This latest pullback isn't even as bad as May's ...

Notice, the person who bought and held a DJIA-tracking fund or such-like at the start of the year is quid's in ... traders trying to 'profit' from volatility are losing money hand over fist and contemplating hanging themselves.

Is 'trading' a mug's game?

[Caseynotes]

22 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Notice, the person who bought and held a DJIA-tracking fund or such-like at the start of the year is quid's in ... traders trying to 'profit' from volatility are losing money hand over fist and contemplating hanging themselves.

Is 'trading' a mug's game?

That is correct, S&P is up around 17% this year but that is conveniently leaving out the December drop. 

Volatility just means price is moving which is good, the Dax today moved down 140 points then back up 140 points which is good if you are day trading, obviously not so good if you are trading longer term, it's all swings and round abouts.

Yes Trump is using the strong economy to put pressure on China to adhere to international rules, why bother?

Look here's a great new Chinese car but I think I've seen this one before as well, pity the suckers who got ripped off, tough... oh wait, it's us.

  

[dmedin]

23 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

the Dax today moved down 140 points then back up 140 points which is good if you are day trading

 

In theory.

The (historical) benefits of buy and hold are documented and quantifiable and the information is available to all.

Day trading is like professional poker - a way to separate gullible mugs from their excess cash.

[Caseynotes]

 

51 minutes ago, dmedin said:

 

In theory.

The (historical) benefits of buy and hold are documented and quantifiable and the information is available to all.

Day trading is like professional poker - a way to separate gullible mugs from their excess cash.

I've been here years, when I started it was with the understanding 90% lost 90% of their account within 90 days and knowing most would give up and knowing most would blow at least several accounts in the learning process if they didn't just give up, so what.

Most come into this as if they are walking into a casino, they do a little homework (learn how to play blackjack), maybe they'll get lucky but really they won't. 

 

[Caseynotes]

Both starting above the pivot, as it's relatively close most likely to see a retest and if it holds will be expecting continuation upward but likely to tapper off as we close in on the US GDP data release at 1:30.

Algos read and react to the headline figures first, very hard to catch that but as with most releases there is a lot more than just the headline figure which is why there is can be a 30 minute period of whip sawing while the new data is digested until price finally settles down and marches off to a new level, that's what you should be looking for

[Caseynotes]

Does someone know something we don't? Following on from this morning's post and we got the anticipated upward continuation but wasn't quite expecting a move straight up to R2. Also WTI  is back up above $56, US GDP data still a couple of hours away.

[Caseynotes]

Interesting start today, both in sync and well above the pivot, still likely to test support before attempting continuation upward but would expect to find support higher than the pivot and possibly at the orange daily chart resistance levels. No big news today but there may well be caution as it's week and month end and going into a US bank holiday Monday.

[Caseynotes]

Following on from this morning's post Dow looking to break through R1 while Dax takes a breather and eyes up R2.

H1 charts;

[dmedin]

On 28/08/2019 at 19:28, Caseynotes said:

 

I've been here years, when I started it was with the understanding 90% lost 90% of their account within 90 days and knowing most would give up and knowing most would blow at least several accounts in the learning process if they didn't just give up, so what.

Most come into this as if they are walking into a casino, they do a little homework (learn how to play blackjack), maybe they'll get lucky but really they won't. 

 

 

That attitude is encouraged by IG with its 'academy'.  An 'academy' that doesn't even cover half of technical analysis (no mention of volume or Fibos) never mind regression to the mean, normal distributions, standard deviations, diversification, Elliot Wave and all the other stuff.  Why study hard for a career as a financial analyst unless you're going for a job in that industry?  Who would be stupid enough to trade off their own account when even the best-educated, most-experienced money managers frequently lose?

Edited August 30, 2019 by dmedin

[Caseynotes]

2 minutes ago, dmedin said:

An 'academy' that doesn't even cover half of technical analysis (no mention of volume or Fibos) never mind regression to the mean, normal distributions, standard deviations, diversification, Elliot Wave and all the other stuff. 

Is any of this stuff actually important?

[dmedin]

3 hours ago, Caseynotes said:

Is any of this stuff actually important?

Nope ... they're still going to lose lots of money from day trading.