Is spread betting for fools?

[nit2wynit]

Clearly Failing............

Over £60 down over 2 days with a £550 account limit.

Staggering losses.

 

 

I said this back in March, but Live, I'm consistently right, in getting it wrong.  If anyone can point out what I must be reading, doing, guessing correctly each time, I can reverse this.

I'll go back to the Demo tomorrow with the Same account size and see what I can achieve.

I don't think it was fear today.  Maybe just distracted and made bad choices.

 

 

[Caseynotes]

1 hour ago, nit2wynit said:

Clearly Failing............

Over £60 down over 2 days with a £550 account limit.

Staggering losses.

 

 

I said this back in March, but Live, I'm consistently right, in getting it wrong.  If anyone can point out what I must be reading, doing, guessing correctly each time, I can reverse this.

I'll go back to the Demo tomorrow with the Same account size and see what I can achieve.

I don't think it was fear today.  Maybe just distracted and made bad choices.

 

 

a number of problems really but the main one is that you've convinced yourself your plan works on demo so it must work on live, probably most think that to begin with but it's usually not the case, mainly because you can't be the same person pulling the levers. You find yourself getting in too late then getting out too early then the opposite until you've lost so much money you just don't know what to do. At some point it will be realised the plan just doesn't work in the real world and will need to be rebuilt incorporating basic precautions such as not trading against the trend and all the other basic safety principles that the demo platform showed you you didn't really need, but the live platform showed you you do.

What you are trying to achieve is not really suited to trying to pick reversals anyway, the short hold time is better suited to dip buying and breakouts with trend where you've got some momentum to carry you through.

[nit2wynit]

Clearly.  I'm still trying to beat the Reversal............Not sure where I picked that habit up from.  Obviously simple Fomo.

 

I need a fresh education.
 

[Caseynotes]

1 minute ago, nit2wynit said:

Clearly.  I'm still trying to beat the Reversal............Not sure where I picked that habit up from.  Obviously simple Fomo.

 

I need a fresh education.
 

Reversal points are so obvious on the chart after the fact it's a natural draw to try and pick them in advance but it nearly always ends badly for the inexperienced (years).

There was a good pullback with a strong move to reverse the pullback and go long with trend, your target could have been the prior high. If that entry was missed could have tried the breakout though in this case it didn't run far but there was time to get out before the structure collapsed.

 

[nit2wynit]

Any Statistics for the Cons?  Percentage wise?

 

[Caseynotes]

19 minutes ago, nit2wynit said:

Any Statistics for the Cons?  Percentage wise?

 

Not really, just based on the natural zig-zag pattern of every trend ever;

[nit2wynit]

5 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

Not really, just based on the natural zig-zag pattern of every trend ever;

I would call, 'Every trend Ever' a pretty decent statistic.

So the odds are good then  haha.

If you'd be so kind to direct me to info of what I'm actually seeing, that'd be great; Candle Stick wise.

[Caseynotes]

1 minute ago, nit2wynit said:

I would call, 'Every trend Ever' a pretty decent statistic.

So the odds are good then  haha.

If you'd be so kind to direct me to info of what I'm actually seeing, that'd be great; Candle Stick wise.

Chart structure wise, ok give me a sec.

[Caseynotes]

Chart structure basics and swing moves. I have tried to zero in on the main points with these few vids but you should look at the whole playlist linked further down. Don't worry about the time frame charts used, the same principles work on any time frame.

Have a look at this one;

 

Then this one;

From this list;

https://www.youtube.com/user/tradingwithrayner/playlists

From this thread;

 

[nit2wynit]

@Caseynotes I'm certainly going to start my Education again from scratch.  Hypocritically i think i know what I'm doing; Wrong!

Made several tiny wins on this already.

What do you all see here.  it's 12.08 am.

[Caseynotes]

I see a triangle (or wedge or asymmetrical if you will) consolidation pattern in an uptrend. 

[Caseynotes]

On the 6 month review IG's losing retail traders drops from 76% to 74%  but FXCM are claiming 73.62%, perhaps we need an industry standard 😅

[nit2wynit]

WTF???

Can anyone explain this @JamesIG

Live Trading Deutche Bank.  Shorting.  Profit around +£80, then the screen froze (no movement, not able to Close) and on the ticket it said:

 'If you want to trade this market call this number'.. So i did to get IG Support who had No Idea what i was talking about.  They can't get thru to the Desk? Technical have no issues to report????

Luckily the page unfroze half way thru the call, but then it had reversed and I managed to get out with £27 profit.

 

[nit2wynit]

Actually i'll start a new thread.  This can't happen again!

[nit2wynit]

@dmedin  It's gone quiet in here.  Did we exhaust all that could be said?? :O

Down £400 this week.  £300 today alone.  £1000 since March.  I clearly have No Clue.

i thought I'd cracked it.  Thought I knew candles and chart patterns.  Thought i could beat the drop.  Time and time again, I'm losing it all.

Gold today.  News everywhere about it dropping to £1360.  Seems every article and Analyst said the same thing.  I thought it was a ruse.  i anticipated a drop, then a spike, and sure enough it happened.

I was up £80 on a short just before the spike.  I was waiting for the Reversal.  I put a Limit on my profit and got stopped out as it sharply reversed to go up 20 points.  I took £25 profit, and got in on the breakout rocket asap.  Unfortunately a stuttering chart and 1 minute time frame was too close so missed most of it.  Might have pulled £50 from the rise; it was worth about £400!!
 

I then anticipated a sharp sell off.........So I shorted.  It was looking Ok, till I took a closer look at the chart to see an obvious Bull Flag formation.  I quit the trade for -£25 only for it to drop.  I'd have made £100.

To keep a long painful story short, the rest of the day is as above.  -£300 waiting for a Drop.  My biggest loser was £103 where I let it run waiting for it to come back to me.  It didn't.

I have become my own cautionary tale.  A typical story of a Naive Neewbie who thought he had what it takes.

It's taken me 45 years to become a Gambler.  I don't think I'm very good at it.  

Hope you've all had a productive day.

[dmedin]

@nit2wynit

I've given up on what you might call day trading.  I try to swing trade and I will hold positions for a longer time frame too.   I understand this to be finding the main trend on a daily or weekly and then using hourly or four-hourly only for timing (never going against the prevailing trend).

In his book on TA Murphy recommends 'mastering inter-day trading before trying intra-day trading' and I've come to feel the same way.  Try to get good at smaller, less valuable trades over a longer time frame before moving into high-stakes ultra-short-term trading.

If someone can't do inter-day trading they are unlikely to be able to do intra-day trading. 

Edited July 10, 2019 by dmedin

[nit2wynit]

I just don't get it.  i can't see what's wrong........................

Been going Short on Gold since 1411.  Kept going up.  Lost £300.

Asia opened.  So said OK, I'll wait and see where it's going, but Follow the Trend Up.  Waited for the pull back..... Went DOWN 3 times, -£60

I Give Up.!!!

[dmedin]

3 hours ago, nit2wynit said:

I just don't get it.  i can't see what's wrong........................

Been going Short on Gold since 1411.  Kept going up.  Lost £300.

Asia opened.  So said OK, I'll wait and see where it's going, but Follow the Trend Up.  Waited for the pull back..... Went DOWN 3 times, -£60

I Give Up.!!!

IMHO you should not have been shorting gold at all.

It is clearly in an uptrend, and this is clear from daily and weekly charts.

Day trading is a mug's game ...

[Caseynotes]

5 hours ago, nit2wynit said:

I just don't get it.  i can't see what's wrong........................

Did try on a number of occasions to point out the problems of your method (or lack of) but was very much a case of 'I can already do it, but just this ...'

Stick to one market, get to know it well.

Have one rules based entry trigger, get to know it well.

Same for exit trigger.

Gut feelings and fomo were never going to work.

[nit2wynit]

2 hours ago, Caseynotes said:

Did try on a number of occasions to point out the problems of your method (or lack of) but was very much a case of 'I can already do it, but just this ...'

Stick to one market, get to know it well.

Have one rules based entry trigger, get to know it well.

Same for exit trigger.

Gut feelings and fomo were never going to work.

I've never doubted your advice @Caseynotes, unfortunately it's not how the human brain works.  We learn in increments.  I can read books, blogs etc. till the cows come home, but until it clicks....then it's just words.  I can look at the chart and tell you the points where i should have got in or out, but if my brain was fixed on a drop coming, I always ALWAYS try to beat it.  My greatest problem I've come to realise.

 

I know what happened yesterday now after sleeping on it.  In the grand scheme of things, Gold hadn't moved that much.  There was definitely an opportunity to make money, but at £20 per point the risks were too great, therefore my stops were too tight, and the 1 or 2 point fluctuations were putting me under too much.  The Instrument didn't suit me.  I got tied into it again and FOMO ruined me waiting for the big reversal that didn't come, though it looks like it's turned now hitting 1425 resistance while asleep.  I literally watched the spike while i was in a short.  Such a shame.  I knew it was coming.

I'll need to go back to my previous Demo successes to see what I've missed.  I've a feeling the likes of the FTSE OR ANY instrument that moves 10 points at a time at around £5 per point, is my aim.  This is where I had most of my success.  I'd take anything from 2-10 points from a move.  Ten small quick trades per day, making £10 on each.  Perfect for me.

There is a ratio of Margin vs Price per point that I've not nailed down.  but £20 per point and only 27 points of movement over 10 hours on Gold isn't it.  I max my margin on every trade, so long of the spread doesn't put me over £10.  So this is what I need to figure out.  Maximise Margin with adequate Stop, but Spread cost is only £10

Small bets today till I find the right Instrument to trade.  Can you recommend one that has decent point movement?

Thanks

 

[Caseynotes]

1 minute ago, nit2wynit said:

I've never doubted your advice @Caseynotes, unfortunately it's not how the human brain works.  We learn in increments.  I can read books, blogs etc. till the cows come home, but until it clicks....then it's just words.  I can look at the chart and tell you the points where i should have got in or out, but if my brain was fixed on a drop coming, I always ALWAYS try to beat it.  My greatest problem I've come to realise.

 

I know what happened yesterday now after sleeping on it.  In the grand scheme of things, Gold hadn't moved that much.  There was definitely an opportunity to make money, but at £20 per point the risks were too great, therefore my stops were too tight, and the 1 or 2 point fluctuations were putting me under too much.  The Instrument didn't suit me.  I got tied into it again and FOMO ruined me waiting for the big reversal that didn't come, though it looks like it's turned now hitting 1425 resistance while asleep.  I literally watched the spike while i was in a short.  Such a shame.  I knew it was coming.

I'll need to go back to my previous Demo successes to see what I've missed.  I've a feeling the likes of the FTSE OR ANY instrument that moves 10 points at a time at around £5 per point, is my aim.  This is where I had most of my success.  I'd take anything from 2-10 points from a move.  Ten small quick trades per day, making £10 on each.  Perfect for me.

There is a ratio of Margin vs Price per point that I've not nailed down.  but £20 per point and only 27 points of movement over 10 hours on Gold isn't it.  I max my margin on every trade, so long of the spread doesn't put me over £10.  So this is what I need to figure out.  Maximise Margin with adequate Stop, but Spread cost is only £10

Small bets today till I find the right Instrument to trade.  Can you recommend one that has decent point movement?

Thanks

 

Several points to make, see my thread Trade Planning and Testing and look at the prob chart on sequential losing trades, you can't beat the math and your account size can't cope with £20/point trade size, you are practically guaranteed to blow your account. 

Your stated goal from the beginning was to make a lot of money fast, it all went down hill from there which was inevitable, your goal meant you were practically guaranteed to blow your account. 

You say above that with hindsight you can see what you should have done, not really.

What you should have done was make your first goal survival. Learn to read chart structure and to anticipate and react, not try to predict. And not to just gamble but develop a rule based plan, if this, this and this happen, then I do that. Then test it to make sure it works, then test live on min position size to make sure it works.

Demo has not been good to you, you can't have real 'success' on demo, there is no such thing. Demo if misused just encourages gambling but without the consequences, until you go live. The same cycle keeps repeating itself. Once you've used demo to learn the platform keep off it.

You tried ftse before and had some success with it but then went chasing all the big movers only to get in late, there's another lesson right there 🙂

 

 

 

 

 

 

[nit2wynit]

18 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

You tried ftse before and had some success with it but then went chasing all the big movers only to get in late, there's another lesson right there

Yep.  That's pretty much it in a nutshell.  £20 per point on a instrument that moves very little is too much risk as i wasn't willing to add a £100 point Stop.  But that's not what went wrong yesterday.  It's the same ole Beat the Reversal story again.  Other than the spike, Gold did a very slow dance with me over the entire day on in to 1.30 this morning. 

It's simple now.  News said it was going to Drop.  I didn't think it was.  Missed the spike.  Then chased the Reversal for 10 hours.  It's not my stops that got me as I mostly ended when they went the wrong way, coz it kept going up!.
Lesson Learned.  Tick.

Guess my new bike and Xbox will need to wait a bit longer.

So, anything Instruments to recommend then that may suit my goals?  Volatility etc.

What are the best Daily Movers where I can take 5 points here and there at £5 per point?

I think I've basically got tired of looking thru the Instrument panel.  I should have Invested in a screener from Day 1.


You're dead Right about the Demo.  @davidbrister said the very same thing that spending too much time on it is futile.

 

 

Losing money is easy.  I've said I know why I did because I have several A4 pages of notes going back to March telling me in Pink Neon Marker that I keep doing the same thing; Trying to catch the Reversal instead of Trend Following.  I've also explained where I learned this approach; I simply haven't mastered it.

So far a £1000 education on how I'm not keeping to the Rules.  OK.  Got my Fail Badge well and truly earned.  Let's turn this around.




 

Edited July 11, 2019 by nit2wynit

[Caseynotes]

3 minutes ago, nit2wynit said:

So far a £1000 education on how I'm not keeping to the Rules.  OK.  Got my Fail Badge well and truly earned.  Let's turn this around.

Countertrending and playing reversals is specialised and needs experience because reversals are relatively rare or at least far less common than continuation. After a spike and flag or pennant then continuation was the higher prob outcome and that's what should have been anticipated and reacted to once seen.

Trying to second guess the market is a losing game, instead learn to spot when an attempt to reverse fails and is revealed to be just another pullback, 'buy the failed dip' (or sell the failed rally) should be the number 1 strategy in the playbook.

I would forget about a screener and leave the illiquid shares alone and just stick to ftse or it's pumped up cousin dax.

[dmedin]

43 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

Demo has not been good to you, you can't have real 'success' on demo, there is no such thing. Demo if misused just encourages gambling but without the consequences, until you go live. The same cycle keeps repeating itself. Once you've used demo to learn the platform keep off it.

 

 

Is the demo platform different from the live platform?  I.e. deliberately misleading?

[Caseynotes]

Just now, dmedin said:

 

Is the demo platform different from the live platform?  I.e. deliberately misleading?

no, it's the same, it's you that's different. No risk, no emotion, no consequences.

[nit2wynit]

1 minute ago, dmedin said:

Is the demo platform different from the live platform?  I.e. deliberately misleading?

Just the Account balance lol

[nit2wynit]

@Caseynotes do you have any points to make on Gold right now.  For my last trade on it, I've placed one for £6pp with a 1pt Stop.  Just to see if i have any clue at all about what I'm looking at.

Appears to be a Descending Bull Flag.  I've a small £6pp Short with a £6 Stop just above resistance.

Tell me what you see please and what you'd do here?  I won't be trading this today.  Call it Therapy.

for what it's worth, it's looking like it might go Up! :O

[Caseynotes]

2 minutes ago, nit2wynit said:

Tell me what you see please and what you'd do here? 

On the M15 I see a spike and bull channel and now consolidation, I would box off the upper and lower reaches of the consolidation  and wait for a break which might be in either direction. In that situation the break lower to retest the top of the spike has the slightly higher probability.

 

[nit2wynit]

OK, so fresh approach applying the rules.  Smaller stake.  Deeper breaths.  Clear Chart patterns.

 

Smaller stake of £6 per point with only 1 stop risk.  If it's wrong it's wrong.  This did drop and I was up £15, but it was at the point of either previous reversal or pull back, so I adjusted my Stop to make sure no matter what, the trade cost me Zero!  

No loss incurred.

What should I have done?  Took the £15, or let it ride for bigger profit assuming it's a small pull back?  Let it fail and be happy it cost me nothing?

What would you all advise or have advised?

 

 

[nit2wynit]

Also^^^^

If this pattern is a Descending Wedge, when should I get out, if at all?  Is it likely to go back up?  What is the statistic?