Is spread betting for fools?

[dmedin]

16 hours ago, nit2wynit said:

I never did.  I asked them what the costs were but got the run around.  they said Free if to make more than Ten trades per month OR if the value of your trades was low then you pay.  I asked 'What is Low' and they couldn't tell me....

WTF!

So you use PRT?

 

When I can ... (Can't use it at work, just the Web platform.)

 

I mean it's not ideal.   I would rather just have a good fast Web platform.  IG's is good but not fast lol.

Edited September 8, 2019 by dmedin

[nit2wynit]

@dmedin what do you make of this?  I've started a thread on it.

 

 

[dmedin]

Having another disastrous trading day ... why do I do this to myself?

[nit2wynit]

46 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Having another disastrous trading day ... why do I do this to myself?

on no....What have you been trading?

I'm up on the Demo with Fastly.  Hit my Goal of +£100 (or there about) per day so i'm quitting.  The last -£22 was another stoopid mistake.   Got in before the move was confirmed.  closing the day +£89.  I know it's the Demo but it's still SR points In and Out with a 1k account.

Now i'm back to looking for Breakouts and not trading the Indicies, I feel better.  But's it's proving too difficult now to find them as I showed in my other post.

Every trade on the move above 5% was Call Only, regardless of size.  I can't figure it out.  I can't even open the charts.

So share with me what you've been trading?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited September 9, 2019 by nit2wynit

[dmedin]

It's all just a big fking con.  Time to give up.  Will put what's left of my spare cash away in 2% savings accounts. 

[dmedin]

I can live with the money I've wasted on trying to learn how to interpret tea leafs (technical analysis) but I'll never get back almost an entire year of my life ... what a fking waste of time and energy.

[nit2wynit]

2 hours ago, dmedin said:

I can live with the money I've wasted on trying to learn how to interpret tea leafs (technical analysis) but I'll never get back almost an entire year of my life ... what a fking waste of time and energy.

I'd love to know what you're doing.   You seem to have sound knowledge on TA especially compared to me,  so I can't see why it's going so wrong for you.  I mean, sure I've lost £1400, but I've been foolish.    Half of this went in 4 hours over 2 days.   I can see nearly every trade I've placed and know why they've failed.  I know at the point of placing the trade, but did it out of ........curiosity/stupidity/naivety/stubbornness......whatever you want to call it.  The important thing for me is I've learned that.  It's taken those losses to realise; I can't chase an Idea.  I can't chase my losses.  Even trading times are now apparent.  I have one good hour or so after 2.30 to find a decent setup and get in and out.  I'll give it 2 or 3 tries on 2 or three Instruments.  If I hit -£25 on a trade I'm out.

Do you have any success on the Demo?

Why don't you try trading breakouts?  We can chat each day to see what we've found and use the Demo to practice?

1:1 PL.  Even if it's only £5 risk for £5 win.  

[Caseynotes]

yes I would agree with Nit, what are you doing? the approach seems to be to try to find every chart pattern in the book on every chart and take a punt. we humans see patterns everywhere whether they are real or not, it's a survival trait that works in the jungle but one that will get you killed in the markets.

decide on ONE approach, find filters and confirmations that add to the probability of that system being profitable, test it, then bring it to the market.

but I repeat myself, again.

[dmedin]

@nit2wynit

Here I am back again, like a masochist paying a lady to whip him and abuse him.  It's unfathomable.

@Caseynotes

I would gladly restrict myself to one method if I could find a method that actually works.

I'm totally overloaded with information - and I still have stacks of books and dozens of websites and videos to watch - so I can't 'pick' a method any more than I can pick a market to bet on.

[dmedin]

I'm going to have to limit my punting to the Demo then, even although the Demo is unrepresentative of how it really works.

[Caseynotes]

10 minutes ago, dmedin said:

@nit2wynit

Here I am back again, like a masochist paying a lady to whip him and abuse him.  It's unfathomable.

@Caseynotes

I would gladly restrict myself to one method if I could find a method that actually works.

I'm totally overloaded with information - and I still have stacks of books and dozens of websites and videos to watch - so I can't 'pick' a method any more than I can pick a market to bet on.

but what does it all boil down to, you can look for enclosed chart patterns like triangles then essentially you are trading breakouts, for support and resistance levels it's breaks or turns, you can look for trends but essentially you are trading failed dips (turns), the other main category is open chart patterns like double tops/bottoms and head and shoulders (turns).

what you are looking for then is a break or a turn.

start with an average time frame eg 4 hour and an average market eg,  fx majors, indices, commods.

a chart and candles on their own are not enough, you need a filter to discount the less probable and a confirmation to highlight the more probable, these two tools will likely rule out 50% of potential setups plenty of which will go on to win but never mind, so long as they rule out more losers than winners.

for example the 100 sma makes a pretty good direction filter (follow the slope) and stoch works as a good wave turn confirmation tool (follow the slope).

so the chart and candles must indicate a break or a turn, the filter informs you to dismiss all signals in the opposite direction and the stoch confirms the break or turn. add obvious levels where you could expect a break or a turn and you end up with this chart.

whatever charts and tools you decide to use stick with it, don't mix and match, then practice execution while starting to think about tools to use to get you out of the trades.

 

 

  

[Caseynotes]

1 hour ago, dmedin said:

I'm going to have to limit my punting to the Demo then, even although the Demo is unrepresentative of how it really works.

the demo is good enough for most people to learn and practice on except the very specialised type of systems such as ultra low time frames or very illiquid markets in which case you would be better off practicing on the live with minimum size.

[nit2wynit]

I know it seems ridiculous for me to be giving advice as I'm down £1400 and a noob myself, but it works for thousands of people all over the world and I've proven it time and time again.....on the Demo. :O

@dmedin  Join me today when the US opens.  We'll look at the US for Gappers of 5% or more at around 2.15.  It's doable but difficult to create a watchlist of ALL us stock in the time given.  However, as I posted yesterday, most of what I had picked wasn't available to trade soooo,  the only way around this is to literally wait for the Bell and use the 1st half hour to search and create the list of Gappers.  To be honest you only need to watch 2 or 3 but then concentrate one one or 2.  Within that 1st half hour is the crazy stuff, but you can often find that within this time the 1st pullback presents itself, offering a perfect time to get in for the 2nd or 3rd run.  1:1 PL.  See below.

1 or 5 m chart, but 1D to plot and SR points and New Day High goals posts.  

I don't feel I need to spell this out to you as I'm pretty sure you know it, but i think you've nailed your problem; overwhlemed with info and ideas and patterns and tools, indicators etc.  Surrounded by books and videos.

I've mostly failed as i didn't stick to my plan.  Finding Breakouts.  Buying the Dip selling the rise.  Stop loss just below the Red candle Dip.  Risk no more than £100 per trade, or 10% of my balance.

the important part is the Ratio of Win/Loss.  I usually go for 1:1 but will hold it if the potential is there and move my stop to lock in profit.

Come on man, we can crack this together.

 

[nit2wynit]

I've mostly failed as i didn't stick to my plan.  Finding Breakouts.  Buying the Dip selling the rise.  Stop loss just below the Red candle Dip.  Risk no more than £100 per trade, or 10% of my balance.  I haven't studied anything as all I need to see is News, Chart 1M 5M, potential for small moves and big profits.  I haven't been doing this.  If you go back thru most of my posts I've been losing on the FTSE or Gold.  I can't trade these with the same mentality.  It needs Smaller stake, longer game.  If I make £500 per day in my day job, then my PL vs Time must also reflect this or be better.  This is why I look for Breakouts.  however, i'm yet to achieve one Live and this will be a great moment for me when i finally nail a decent profit.

The important part is the Ratio of Win/Loss.  I usually go for 1:1 but will hold it if the potential is there and move my stop to lock in profit.  This can either be Risk £5 to make £5 or £50 to make £50.  Practicing with a small account does several things.  Keeps it real.  Keeps it Sane, Keeps it Safe.

Come on man, we can crack this together.

 

Put Fastly and Abeona in your Watchlist.  Even Dell.  We'll see what they do today.
 

Edited September 10, 2019 by nit2wynit

[dmedin]

@nit2wynit lol good idea, posting charts in real time predictively is more informative than posting charts when price patterns have already completed.  What's the news with Dell?

Edited September 10, 2019 by dmedin

[nit2wynit]

11 minutes ago, dmedin said:

What's the news with Dell?

Nothing specific today, but has potential for a move either way.  It's been good in the past.  Same for Abeona and Fastly.  At&T has been moving too.  The list is long enough once the market is open but you've got to be quick.  This is where a scanner would be beneficial.

What we're hoping to prove today is the potential for profit while searching for Breakouts on the 1M 5M.  Anywhere within the 1st half hour of market open.  If it opens high but immediately drops I usually stay well clear.(not to say it doesn't go the other way soon after though-we need to be efficient in our search and decision making)  Whatever you choose, you'll need to decide on how quickly it's moving to use 1M 5M or even 10M chart.  We want to filter the noise.  We're looking for the 1st pullback after the spike, then the 1st green candle to make a new high after the red candle pullback.

For the sake of the exercise, arrange the searchlist from A-Z and I'll do the same.  1st 10 that are Gapping 5% or more and are Tradeable,  put them in a list.  We'll see what we end up with.

Pick the 1st ten that are within your price range (mine are usually way less than £50 but as low as £2-potential for profit is based upon previous day High and Low points.  If it's already there and seems exhausted, then leave it.  Trade the best, dump the rest)  I can't even trade the likes of Tesla or such like with only 1k.  Create a Watchlist so you can arrange them from highest Gappers.  Look for the best setups.  Let the 1st spike go, let it ride, wait for a pullback.  Put your Stop Loss below the red candle on the pullback, and ride it till you're 1:1 or better.  If it fails right out of the gate, dump it.

The aim of the exercise is to practice Win/Loss ratio.  So even if you place your stop below the last red candle on the dip and it's only 0.50, your profit is also 0.50 or 1:2.  If you can get anything from 50/50 right at 1:1 you're still in the game.

Now imagine you're playing for £50, or £100, or £1000 and your Win/Loss ratio is 70/30.  Boom we're winners.

Excited yet? haha

[nit2wynit]

55 minutes ago, dmedin said:

What's the news with Dell?

@TrendFollower Hi.  For the sake of an exercise on the Demo I'm wondering if you have any news today about any US Tech companies to look for at market open?  Thanks

[nit2wynit]

@dmedin Can you see this?  Take a look.  However, most of the time the Stocks he has in his list are often unavailable here.
 

 

[dmedin]

10 minutes ago, nit2wynit said:

@dmedin Can you see this?  Take a look.  However, most of the time the Stocks he has in his list are often unavailable here.
 

 

 

 

They're not providing us with a platform that enables us to make money.

Spread betting is 'uniquely British', to put it euphemistically. 

[dmedin]

2 hours ago, nit2wynit said:

it works for thousands of people all over the world

They are a secretive bunch of cave dwellers, because the only people I see on the web who say it 'works' are people selling you access to their courses and videos and books.  I.e. bullsh!t artists!

[nit2wynit]

2 minutes ago, dmedin said:

They are a secretive bunch of cave dwellers, because the only people I see on the web who say it 'works' are people selling you access to their courses and videos and books.  I.e. bullsh!t artists!

Your energy is off.  you're clearly NOT creating a Watchlist are you? :O

[nit2wynit]

Made £42 with a £38 risk.  Took about 5 seconds.  Stop at the Red Candle Dip.  Took profit over 1:1.

Instrument: MallIncKrodt PLC.  It's still on the move.

 

[nit2wynit]

Watchlist.

 

 

[nit2wynit]

In my eagerness to prove it, I got out too early, then got back in (Big No No) to give back £27, but got back in and out too early to take £36.

So.  Up £78 -£27 = +£51.

However, with patience and a £100 risk instead of £38 at the 1st Pullback, there's nearly £500 in that move in Half an our using a 1k account.  But my margin would have only been around £500.

 

 

Edited September 10, 2019 by nit2wynit

[nit2wynit]

Now just to prove I'm still capable of being stoopid, I've gone back in right toward a previous high.  I expect it to fail and lose £200  We'll see.

It's important to prove to yourself a fail too.  To know you've made the right decision in being the wrong move.

[nit2wynit]

Well, it worked out.  I actually got it up to +£45 but slippage or timing got me out for +£36.

Total for today on this 1 Instrument = +£87


How did you get on with your Watchlist @dmedin ?

 

 

Edited September 10, 2019 by nit2wynit

[dmedin]

I'm behind ...🙈

[nit2wynit]

3 minutes ago, dmedin said:

I'm behind ...🙈

behind what?  the curtain?? lol

Trading is over bud.  Missed it.  Might get a 2nd wind after lunch but I rarely hang around after 4.30.

I'm trading to free up time.  Money is the bonus ball.

Despite this being the Demo I still have a Fear of Loss as my goal is to grow the account balance and be sure of my Win/Loss ratio being above 50%.  I don't want to lose here either, so I'm still cutting my Winners too soon.  Yesterday was a win up £150 but also a loss as I lost £100, giving away 2/3rds.  Not ideal.

A total of £800 to be had here today if i'd kept it going.  Total ppp of £9.  Stop at -£100, Margin at about £560.  Low Spread on this too of only 3pt.  This is a perfect setup.

The Stop of £100 really is just a marker of absolute risk.  The spread being 3 and 3 extra in the wrong direction would be my limit to make me get out and reassess.

Edited September 10, 2019 by nit2wynit

[dmedin]

This was my breakout today - been watching it for ages and lost money shorting it not so long ago.  If I was in a better mood I would have done £5 per point.

Edited September 10, 2019 by dmedin

[nit2wynit]

2 minutes ago, dmedin said:

This was my breakout today - been watching it for ages and lost money shorting it not so long ago.

Wehey.....Up £20  a Win

You know, I appreciate you didn't ask for my advice or for me to give you ideas......but if you'd said you weren't up for it I'd have concentrated on my own charts...

jus sayin! :O

Edited September 10, 2019 by nit2wynit