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Everything up except USD and Crypto. Chart USD basket.

Carney speaks 11am, EU mon pol accounts 12:30, US CPI and jobs data 1:30pm

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Indices Gold Oil Crypto up, Bonds USD down. Chart Copper bottoming out.

China data 8am, EU indy prod 10am, US PPI 1:30pm.

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Indices up, USD flat. Bonds, Oil and Gold down, Crypto down. Chart Ether down 8%.

Japan bank holiday.

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Asian markets down Crypto down, Bonds up, USD flat, Oil and Gold up. Chart Bund.

UK average earnings 9:30, Ger econ senti 10:00, US retail sales 1:30pm. Lots of Fed speak throughout the day. Ger sentiment expected at a very depressed -20.9.

 

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Indices mixed USD down, Bonds up Oil up after yesterday's big drop, Gold down. Chart Microsoft down 1.4%.

CPI data for UK and EU, US housing starts, US oil inventories.

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Overnight Indices and USD down, Bonds  and Oil up, Gold down Cryptos up. Chart Caterpillar down 2.6%.

UK retail sales 9:30, US jobs data and Philly Fed 1:30pm.

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Overnight Indices up Bonds down, Oil up Gold pausing after recent breakout, Crypto down. Chart Gold.

Ger PPI 7:00, UK borrowing 9:30, US consumer sentiment 3:00pm.

 

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Starting out fairly flat, Asian markets down as bets come off for an aggressive rate cut next week. USD up Crypto up and Bonds down overnight. Chart USDJPY.

Not much on the calendar today or tomorrow, ECB rate decision Thursday and US GDP Friday.

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Overnight, Indices and USD up, Bonds and Gold down, Crypto down. Chart Gold.

Today, EU bank lending, UK Tory leadership contest, US housing.

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Overnight and Indices up. Gold, Oil up, Bonds, USD flat and Crypto down. Chart Barclays.

PMIs - Ger 8:30, EU 9:00, US 2:45pm.

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Overnight Indices Crypto Bonds Oil USD up, Gold down. Chart Cat down over 4% on downsized expectations from US shale indy also weighed on the Dow yesterday.

Ger business climate data 9:00, ECB rate decision 12:45 and presser 1:30, US durable goods 1:30.

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Overnight Indices mixed, USD and Bonds flat, Crypto down and Oil and Gold up.

Earnings Amazon miss, Alphabet beat. Chart Alphabet up 7.5% 

On the calendar and today it's all about US GDP 1:30pm.

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End of day Indices Bonds and USD up, Oil and BTC down. Chart US fang up 2%.

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Overnight indices down Oil down, USD, Bonds and Gold up. Chart Alphabet up nearly 10%.

Not much on today's calendar.

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Overnight Indices USD and Oil up, Bonds and Gold down. Chart GBPUSD.

Today Ger consumer conf and CPI, EU business climate, and US personal spending and consumer conf.

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Overnight Asian indices down, USD flat, Crypto up, Bonds and Oil up, Gold down. Chart Nasdaq.

Ger employment and retail sales, EU GDP and CPI, US ADP nfp, FOMC rate decision, mon pol statement and presser.

 

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Overnight and still lots of red, quite a feat to crash everything all at once except the USD of course which is flying high, hate to be Powell when he gets that phone call from Trump 😳

UK rate decision today, let's hope Carnage can kick up a s**tstorm of equal volatility. 

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After the Trump announcement Indices red but USD, Gold and Oil recoiling a bit after the surge. Chart China 300.

US NFP 1:30pm today.

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Overnight USD down. Oil down and Gold up, Cryptos down. Chart Bund takes a breather (not sure why there are no Friday candles on the Bund daily chart).

Not much on the calendar for today.

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Overnight USD up, Indices rebounding, Asian markets down, Oil down Gold up, Bonds mixed. Chart Caterpillar down 2.2%

GB ave earnings 9:30, Ger econ sentiment 10:00, US CPI 1:30pm.

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Overnight change and markets settling after the most recent Trump play, Gold holding up quite well chart.

Ger GDP, UK CPI, EU GDP.

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Overnight USD down, Indices trying to lift, Oil down Gold up, Bonds up chart Bund.

Lots of US data today at 1:30pm should be interesting.

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Overnight Indices and USD up Cryptos down, Oil up Gold down and Bonds take a breather. Chart 30 year Treasury Bond.

US housing data, plus the only high impact release today is the US Mich consumer sentiment at 3pm.

 

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  • Member Statistics

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    Richardoyle
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    • Going back to my FTSE analysis I see things as follows: 2 scenarios present themselves, other than fresh ATHs that is: 1) the move down to the turn on Thursday was a wave 1 (blue) off a larger scale wave 2 (purple) that should retrace, maybe in a complex fashion with a lot of whip saw price action maybe not, let's see; 2) the recent rally and drop to a new low was a 1-2 (red), which indicates a much stronger leg down is immanent. The #2 scenario would only be valid if price holds below the previous high (circa 7300).  I favour the #1 scenario. There was PMD on the 4H chart at wave 1 (blue), which suggests this is a turning point.  Also the 4H chart shows a 1-5 wave down to the 1 blue, which would be motive and suggests a trend change to the bearish side. There was strong NMD at wave 2 (Purple) which is consistent with a large scale retrace move. Just as with the US large caps, after the stop and turn up there was a sharp retrace drop to the Fib 76/78% zone before the current rally.  As the FTSE was in out of hours at the end of the week this market has not rallied as hard as the US markets.  Also we may yet see fresh ATHs on US large caps while the FTSE100 only puts in a counter trend rally. If we do see fresh ATHs on US large caps and only a retrace on FTSE and probably Dax and Nikkei as well then comparing these markets will be instructive for calling that top on US large caps.  We may, alternatively, see only a retrace on US large caps too if the top of the market in already in. Conclusion: we can anticipate a bullish period on all major indices BUT should guard against a quick reversal on FTSE 100 that would set up scenario #2.  Either way this market looks to have topped out so the coming months though to the Autumn will be critical to deciding things on all indices, and likely quite a few other markets. I am Long the FTSE 100, coincident with my Dow Longs and will swing this up for now but my bearish bias for the long term will keep we watchful for a break down of this rally and I will not be pyramiding this one, far too risky until things are resolved.
    • "....more broadly we have seen currency wars but these have not really captured the imagination of the MSM yet" Actually I'd argue we have had currency wars for some years already. History shows it goes in the following order: Currency war, Trade war, War. (Regrettably).  If I recall correctly the market falls of early 2015 (about 20% down) were blamed on Yuan being devalued by Chinese manipulation. Way before Trump! "....we suddenly get a super massive set of central bank policies that drop rates to zero" Again I'd say that has been going on for some years. Arguably you could say about 35 years since the Plaza Accord. Once fiat became unaccountable (no gold standard) the politicians proceeded to spend, spend spend =debt,debt,debt. Expect MMT  (US Democrats pushing modern monetary theory) to allow them to continue in that vein. Again history says these currencies will all eventually disappear, like species, approx 95% no longer exist.  Broadly I agree with what you say. The present financial system is critically sick that's for sure. It has propped up assets with huge doses of QE and zero rate interest policy (expect more of that when the ECB meets next month). You are correct about the size of stock markets. If the global market was a horse the bond market would be three legs of it! I digress.... However, if you are faced with massive debts then here are your options: 1) Default - Argentinian/Zimbabwe style. Not likely, at least until all other options tried - as that's the end game. 2) Grow the economy at a fast enough rate to meet and exceed future repayment obligations. In a global low anaemic growth environment? Unlikely. 3) Inflate like mad. It's the only viable option. You could, reasonably say, that after 3 massive QE sessions and ZIRP and now  NIRP that deflation is winning. Arguably it's all been a waste of time / money. Where's the kitchen sink? Presumably more of the same and then some helicopter money? It seems to me that this is more in line with Japan (targeted 10yr bond rate = 0%) which someone said in the 90s was  "...the dress rehearsal. The rest of the world will be the main event". Trying to get inflation without destroying the USD global reserve status is unlikely in my opinion and you can't help but feel that some sort of Bretton Woods global RESET will eventually emerge. It's certainly what Russia, China, Syria, Iran, Turkey etc are angling for.....and their central banks have been big buyers of bullion recently. That's why I'd recommend holding gold. Not as a trading strategy (which is what I appreciate this forum is). Nice sharing these thoughts with you>
    • So it looks like my crazy set of channels on the Daily chart is still holding well.  The breakout of the last channel line, which coincides with a nice zone of lateral S/R was retested but failed as I noted in my previous post.  I got Short off an initial rejection from this zone and Resistance line with a tight stop but price never came back so nicely in on a couple of Short positions and stop protected at BE.  Price moved back through the monthly lower channel line (purple) and put in a quick daily candle failed retest and dropped away.  It is possible we could see another retest of this resistance zone before any further move but a break below the 5760 level would be indicative that the Bear has resumed and obviously a break of the previous low around the $56 mark would once again bring $50 into focus.  
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