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That's right @elle, that is why economists are saying it isn't here yet, so do I.  We aren't there yet.

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Seems like only 1 in 3 think we will have a recession next year.  The consensus is for 2021/2.  I agree economists are usually wrong, mostly because the economists surveyed are in he employ of the financial companies and the last thing they want is a flight of capital out of their funds.  To call the end of the bull or a recession or worse is a one way trip to your own personal recession, which is why they don't do it.  You have to look for the lone voice in the wilderness, the Dr. Doom types.

Maybe they are all wrong and we will indeed slip into recession this year!  Who knows, that is the point of the thread really, to keep it in mind and be watchful, not to trust to economist surveys.

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@elle, Another good post.👍🏾

@Mercury, I agree. You make a good point.

If one keeps saying or predicting there will be a recession then eventually there is going to be one. We all know that and it is part of the economic cycle which has existed for many years now. They may get the timing wrong by a few months or years! Then they will take the credit for saying they predicted a recession. 

Just be ready to short the market when the recession arrives and profit from it. 

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I think recession is declared or not it already started to step into.The all over situations in world shows that we are just into the first phase of recession which followed by some kind of ease or feeling good factors for some time ,then suddenly starts to get pushed into the deeper recession from on 2020 may last over for next three years. Only indexes are showing on top but from retail to manufacturers started feel the turmoil. The gold is running high,interest rates sliding ,consumption of metals get jittery due to demand decreasing, all these signs shows that recession slowly entering into the system , which will be start to feel hardly during later 2020.

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On 22/08/2019 at 04:46, Caseynotes said:

image.thumb.png.6339002b331527b87c5f0f5b09e5acea.png

 

LOL to this. This is so true. 

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@tehka,

If you look at the number of times it is being reported there are US-China trade tensions. Then Trump will tell the media that he thinks there will be a deal soon. Then both countries amend their tariffs. Then they have YET another meeting, followed by Trump again stating a deal will be done, months later no deal. This is market manipulation of the highest order. Either they agree and do a deal or just tell the media they cannot agree and there is no deal. End of. To keep the world guessing for months on end is all part of the plan as both countries know that announcing no deal would cause havoc amongst world markets so they are controlling the markets indirectly by playing this game. Eventually there will be a deal! LOL. 😀

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Picking up on the recent comments in the SP500 one way bet thread:

If you want to hear it from a professional desk trader, check out this Real Vision interview.  You don't need to understand all of it to get the gist and realise that the whole financial system is effectively feeding on itself.  The interviewee effectively says this himself.  Throw in a dose of Trump and corporate buybacks and you get a clear picture of the rickety (is that a sub prime scandal type events I see before me?) nature of the financial markets.

Also sheds some light on why so many moves on stocks indices seem to happen out of hours (i.e. the hedging occurs in the futures market rather than the real stocks market).  Does talk about having a bet on the scenario where it all turns out ok and momentum gets a boost, interesting that the pros can call it either so have to play scenarios...  And references the "beggar thy neighbour" stuff that is going on.  And this trader seems to think that Fundamentals are not the critical factor.  Seems to me like a hopeless case...

https://www.realvision.com/tv/shows/investment-ideas/videos/the-late-cycle-contrarian

Oh and watch out for October!  It seems...

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Everyone focused on Trump Tweets and such like and then comes a ISM manufacturers PMI reading below 50...  Is that a Black Swan?  Probably not but it was sure not expected by the great Financial houses analysts (51! Oh Oh).  Last time we saw ISM PMI readings for the US below 50 was in 2015/16 period, I am sure you will remember that this wasn't a great time for stocks.  But the economists have already told us not to worry, this is JUST a manufacturing recession.  So long as the consumer and services stay strong everything will be fine, yeaaaahhh...

Oh and BTW, ISM reading less that 50 is supposedly bad for the USD and sure enough we are seeing a bit of a rally in currencies against the USD...  

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A Real Vision interview with Stockman.  He is certainly a PermaBear but perhaps with good reason; and he certainly has credentials.  He suffers from the "boy who cried wolf" syndrome, just a Roubini did before the credit crunch.  There is a malaise in the economic/capitalise world such that anyone who questions the logic and veracity of the mainstream consensus is vilified.  Happens on this forum too...  But it is these contrarians that get it right, in the fullness of time.  Challenge for the rest of us is to time it right and be prepared to take advantage.  To do this we have to be open minded and at least listen to the alternative views.  Not to do so is an extreme version of bias and is being exhibited across the patch right now.  If the crash is never seen before it happens then perhaps it is this bias that is the reason (and BTW some few people do spot it in advance and make out like bandits!).  It is human nature to deploy the ostrich tactic, we don't want to hear bad news and less so bad omens) and this nature repeats itself over and over again, which is why technical analysis, coupled with fundamentals assessment, works in terms of identifying these biases as zig zags and key turning points.

The point of this thread is to show examples of bad omens and discuss, not to project a particular bias.  In so doing perhaps we can at least be aware.

Stockman has been banging on about this for a long time but that doesn't mean he is wrong, just that the resultant crash hasn't happened yet.  Roubini was the same about the credit crunch and ultimately vindicated.  For my money this will end the same was and perhaps this time it will be different but not in the way the mainstream keep trying to sell us...  It's not like they don't have a vested interest in sell that particular world view is it?

 

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Not a big fan of MSM shows but there are a few interesting point within this clip including:

  • Watch the Russell as a leading indicator for large caps, which is something I do
  • S&P500 gets cut in half in a recession
  • Once we see that we are actually in a recession it is too late (contra argument to the don't panic boys who say things like an yield curve inversion MAY be a year and a half ahead of an actual recession)
  • Oh and BTW, maybe the recession will happen sooner, especially if the current bull is asset price driven, which it is...  If markets start to fall the wealth effect will be negative

There are some "it all be alright folks" comments too so not at all one sides.

 

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More bad retail news, it just keeps mounting up...  Additional bad news for jobs and housing market embedded within this, US housing having topped out and started a decline phase.

The notion that it is all down to a shift online is too simplistic I think and in any case, even if this was the cause, there will still be a recessionary knock on effect on jobs and tax take.  No such thing as a free lunch, even thought the internet companies are trying to belie that but governments are waking up to this threat now, cue cut in online giants meager profits.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49654281

 

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On 05/09/2019 at 12:10, Mercury said:

Not a big fan of MSM

Nothing they say can be trusted.

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You don't trust anyone do ya?

Serious thought I agree with you if we are talking about MSM opinion but when they are just reporting the facts then ok.

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