ArvinIG

Hi @SAnober, As mentioned above you can't change your margin requirements for your account as they apply per market not per account. You can find the margin requirements on the deal ticket by clicking on the info tab: I hope that it helps. All the best - Arvin

Hi @Mountainous, Thank you for your post. On the platform once you add a list to your Workspace, you can click on the filter next to "Market" and select %Change: I hope that it helps. All the best - Arvin

Hi @sahilkansagara, Could you please confirm if you have been able to access your account? We tried to login on our dummy US account and there was no issue. Thank you - Arvin

Hi @weeky1, Could you please clarify which market is it and what type of account you are using? Thank you - Arvin

Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 28th March 2022. These are projected dividends and likely to change. IG cannot be held responsible for any changes made. Dividends highlighted in red include a special dividend, therefore some or all of the amount will not be adjusted. Amount in brackets is the expected adjustment after special dividends excluded (where shown on major indices). Dividend adjustments due to be posted on a bank holiday will usually be posted on the previous working day. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect your positions, please take a look at the video. NB: All dividend adjustments are forecasts and therefore speculative.A dividend adjustment is a cash neutral adjustment on your account. Index Bloomberg Code Effective Date Summary Dividend Amount OMX SKAB SS 30/03/2022 Special Div 3 OMX SWEDA SS 31/03/2022 Special Div 2 OMX SCAB SS 1/04/2022 Special Div 1 SPX COP US 30/03/2022 Special Div 0.3 How do dividend adjustments work? This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

Hi @Superlamb, We might need more details to be able to assist you further. Could you please contact helpdesk.au@ig.com, use our live chat feature or call 1800 601 734, our team will be able to investigate and help you rectify your orders. All the best - Arvin

EUR/USD continues to slide, GBP/USD topped out and EUR/GBP bounces off support amid rising oil prices which stoke inflationary fears. Forex Commodities Euro United States dollar Pound sterling GBP/USD EUR/USD remains under pressure amid rising oil prices and inflationary fears EUR/USD continues to trade below its two-month downtrend line at $1.1065 as surging oil prices provoke renewed fears of rising inflation and larger than previously expected rate hikes in the US. The mid-March $1.0901 low thus remains in focus, a fall through which would lead to the $1.0806 early-March low being back on the cards. While the cross remains below last week’s high at $1.1137, this year’s downtrend remains intact. Source: IT-Finance.com EUR/GBP bounces off support ahead of Friday’s UK March Gfk consumer confidence EUR/GBP drop through the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) and March 11 low at £0.8361 has taken it to the £0.8305 to £0.8286 support zone which held ahead of tomorrow’s UK March Gfk consumer confidence which is expected to come in at -30 compared to -26 a month ago. While the January and February lows at £0.8305 to £0.8286 underpin, a bounce back towards the 55-day SMA at £0.836 is likely to ensue. Further, minor resistance lies at the 17 March low at £0.8368 and also at the £0.8408 25 February high. Source: IT-Finance.com Recent advance in GBP/USD is taking a breather GBP/USD’s recovery rally from its 1 ¼ year low at $1.3001 ran out of steam at yesterday’s $1.3298 high as the war in Ukraine enters its second month. The 22 March low at $1.3121 is back in the picture, since a drop through the December low at $1.3162 has occurred. Slightly further down, potential support can be seen at the 8 March low at $1.3083. Only a fall through the mid-March low at $1.3001 would put the $1.2855 to $1.2813 June 2020 high and November 2020 low on the map. Resistance above the 17 March high at $1.3211 comes in at yesterday’s $1.3298 high. Source: IT-Finance.com IG Analyst 24 March 2022

Hi @Grego999, This server is not the IG Demo server you can type manually demo-mt4.ig.com:443 to use the IG MT4 Demo server. All the best - Arvin

AUD rises vs USD after oil prices surge on pipeline problems; March PMI data shows Australia’s economic recovery is strengthening and AUD/USD eyes potential Golden Cross in the works after bullish action. Source: Bloomberg Forex Commodities United States dollar Australian dollar AUD/USD Petroleum Thursday’s Asia-Pacific outlook Asia-Pacific markets may fall today after market sentiment soured overnight on Wall Street. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) fell 1.29% in New York. A sharp increase in WTI crude and Brent crude oil prices sparked concerns over economic growth as the conflict in Ukraine intensifies. The US dollar DXY index gained, mostly on euro weakness. However, the commodity-linked Australian dollar managed to climb higher. The rise in oil prices is attributable to a Russian oil pipeline to the Black Sea. Russia says that repairs on the damaged pipeline may take 1 million barrels per day off the market. Chevron, a US oil company that owns a stake in the pipeline, cited difficulties in sourcing materials to make the necessary repairs due to the market situation. Russia says that it may take months to complete those repairs. Oil-linked currencies like the Brazilian real and the Canadian dollar benefitted from the underlying move. It wasn’t just oil that rallied overnight, however. Copper, aluminum and nickel gained despite the stronger US dollar. That helped push inflation expectations higher, with the two-year US breakeven rate rising to nearly 5%. That helped push gold and silver prices higher. USD/JPY also managed to record another daily gain. The Yen is at its weakest point versus the US dollar since February 2016, and many analysts believe the Japanese currency may fall further as the Bank of Japan stays dovish versus an increasingly hawkish Federal Reserve. Along with rising commodity prices, the Australian dollar may benefit from this morning’s economic data. The March purchasing managers’ index (PMI) rose to 57.3 from 57.0, and the services component rose to 57.9 from 57.4, according to Markit Economics. The Australian economy appears to be off to a strong recovery as the country progresses away from Covid lockdowns that were in effect for the majority of 2021. The rest of today’s APAC session is rather light, with PMI data out of Japan due out at 00:30 GMT. AUD/USD technical forecast AUD/USD looks set to challenge the October 2021 high in the near term after prices pushed into fresh 2022 highs overnight. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and MACD oscillators signal strong momentum, along with the rising 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). That SMA is on track to cross above the 200-day SMA following the past week of bullish price action. That would generate a high-profile bull signal should the SMA crossover occur, commonly referred to as a Golden Cross. AUD/USD daily chart Source: TradingView Follow Thomas Westwater on Twitter @FxWestwater This information has been prepared by DailyFX, the partner site of IG offering leading forex news and analysis. This information Advice given in this article is general in nature and is not intended to influence any person’s decisions about investing or financial products. The material on this page does not contain a record of IG’s trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Thomas Westwater | Analyst, DailyFX, New York City 24 March 2022

The pound is holding firm in the wake of another strong CPI reading, while EUR/USD and USD/JPY are looking for additional upside. Forex United States dollar EUR/USD USD/JPY Euro Japanese yen EUR/USD holds around $1.10 A recovery continues here with EUR/USD in the short term, with a bounce from yesterday’s lows helping to maintain the bullish view. However, the price has yet to attempt a move above $1.11 resistance so far this month. Even a bounce towards $1.12 leaves the downtrend intact. In the near term a fall back below yesterday’s lows at $1.096 would mark a bearish development and potentially bring the $1.08 level back into view. Source: ProRealTime GBP/USD steady after CPI figures A solid bounce here with GBP/USD yesterday has put new life into the countertrend rebound that has been in progress since the middle of the month. However, this rebound from a lower low is still within a much broader downtrend, and as with EUR/USD, the possibility of a lower high is still strong. For now, the buyers have the upper hand, and a move back towards $1.34 seems likely. A reversal below $1.32 would suggest a new leg lower is underway. Source: ProRealTime USD/JPY holds near highs The remarkable bounce in USD/JPY shows no sign of slowing, and indeed it has accelerated in pace, surging through the ¥120.00 level. By any measure this is overextended, but for now bullish momentum continues to carry it higher. The 2007 and 2015 highs at ¥124.00 are now the next big levels to watch on the upside. Buyers should beware of the potential for a pullback however, with a move back towards the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) creating a higher low and leaving the uptrend intact, even if much of the ground gained over the past three weeks is given back. Source: ProRealTime Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London 23 March 2022

Hi @blackarrow, Thank you for your post. We are are not offering Share trading on demo accounts as Share trading is DMA meaning the orders goes directly on the market. Therefore you won't be able to play around unlike CFD or Spread betting demo accounts. The major difference with the CFD account and Share trading is that with share trading you will pay a different set of commission and you will need to pay the full amount of the share as you are not using leverage. We forwarded your feedback on adding a share trading account to the relevant department. I hope that it helps. All the best - Arvin

Retail traders are becoming increasingly pessimistic on European equities and rising DAX 40 and FTSE 100 short bets indicate a contrarian market signal. Source: Bloomberg Indices Shares Market sentiment DAX FTSE 100 Stock market index European benchmark stock indices have been on the rise recently, pushing more retail investors to sell the rips. This can be seen by using IG Client Sentiment (IGCS). According to the data, downside bets have been on the rise in the DAX 40 and FTSE 100 indices. At times, IGCS can function as a contrarian indicator. If this trend in positioning continues, then the DAX and FTSE could be open to extending recent gains. DAX 40 sentiment outlook - bullish The IGCS gauge shows that about 41% of retail traders are net-long the DAX 40. Since most traders are biased to the downside, this hints that prices may continue rising. This is as short exposure has climbed by 18.76% and 20.95% compared to yesterday and last week, respectively. With that in mind, the combination of overall and recent shifts in positioning is offering a bullish contrarian trading bias. Source: DailyFX DAX 40 daily chart The DAX 40 index has climbed an impressive +16% since finding a low in early March. This followed deep losses throughout January and February. Prices recently confirmed a break above the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), exposing the falling trendline from December. The latter could be the next key technical test to see if there is more upside momentum to be found here. Clearing the trendline exposes the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at 15466 before all-time highs kick in above. Source: TradingView FTSE 100 sentiment outlook - bullish The IGCS gauge shows that about 33% of retail traders are net-long the FTSE 100. Since most investors are biased to the downside, this hints that prices may continue rising. This is as short bets increased by 8.59% and 43.46% compared to yesterday and last week, respectively. With that in mind, the combination of overall and recent shifts in positioning is offering a bullish contrarian trading bias. Source: DailyFX FTSE 100 daily chart Like the DAX 40, the FTSE 100 is up strongly since finding a low in early March. This followed steep losses in February. Prices have confirmed a breakout above the 20-day SMA and are now testing the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Confirming a break above the latter may open the door to retest all-time highs, making for a key zone of resistance between 7646 and 7724. On the downside, keep a close eye on a near-term rising trendline from the beginning of March. Falling under it risks opening the door to losses. Source: TradingView Follow Daniel Dubrovsky on Twitter @ddubrovskyFX This information has been prepared by DailyFX, the partner site of IG offering leading forex news and analysis. This information Advice given in this article is general in nature and is not intended to influence any person’s decisions about investing or financial products. The material on this page does not contain a record of IG’s trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Daniel Dubrovsky | Currency Analyst, DailyFX, San Francisco 23 March 2022

Hi @JamesCurtis, If the ETFs you are after are ISA permitted feel free to add them on this Stock request post to be added: It seems that PMLP is already on the platform : All the best - Arvin

Hi @Goldenforest, You should receive a confirmation once a position is opened or closed. Please ensure that your notifications are activated on My IG > Settings > Price and dealings alerts: Alternatively the trade should reflect in your history. All the best - Arvin

EUR/USD upswing is intact for now but there are challenges ahead; EUR/CHF has seen a pullback but remains on firm footing for the moment and short-term momentum favours the euro. Source: Bloomberg Forex Shares Euro EUR/CHF EUR/USD Swiss franc EUR/USD technical outlook After making a 2-year low at 1.08062 two weeks ago, EUR/USD has managed to gain some short-term bullish momentum as it crossed above the 10-day simple moving average (SMA) and it’s gradient is positive. Further bullish momentum may unfold if the price is to cross above the 21-day SMA, but it would take a sustained rally above it to turn the gradient to a positive slope. Nearby resistance might be at the recent peaks of 1.11212 and 1.11375. Further up, resistance could be at the previous highs and pivot points of 1.12743, 1.12802, 1.13751, 1.13959, 1.14830 and 1.14949. The slight weakness of the last few sessions has the price nearing an ascending trend line, currently intersecting at 1.0995, a level of potential support. Below there, the previous lows of 1.0891 and 1.08062 are potential levels of support. Source: TradingView EUR/CHF technical outlook Similar to EUR/USD, EUR/CHF made a 7-year low 2-weeks ago at 0.99728. It has not traded at these levels since the Swiss National Bank (SNB) abandoned protecting the so-called “Swissy” from what it perceived to be overvaluation. Yesterday’s price action saw EUR/CHF sneak below support at 1.02790 and touch the 10 and 21-day simple moving average (SMA) before bouncing back above 1.02790. The next few sessions might be significant for the cross, as a continuation higher is a rejection of that attempt to go lower. While a decisive move below the 21-day SMA may signal short-term bullish momentum has evaporated. To the downside, immediate support could be at yesterday’s low of 1.02646 which is also the current level of the 21-day SMA. Further down support may lie at the prior lows of 1.01550 and 0.99728. On the upside, the 55 and 100-day SMAs are straddling the recent peak of 1.04024 and might provide a zone of resistance, as well as the prior high of 1.04480. A pivot point at 1.05117 also has a descending trend line dissecting near it and could offer resistance. Above there the 200-day SMA is also near the February high of 1.06091, offering potential resistance. Source: TradingView Follow Daniel McCarthy on Twitter at @DanMcCarthyFX This information has been prepared by DailyFX, the partner site of IG offering leading forex news and analysis. This information Advice given in this article is general in nature and is not intended to influence any person’s decisions about investing or financial products. The material on this page does not contain a record of IG’s trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk Daniel McCarthy | Strategist 23 March 2022

Market sentiment has improved despite persistent concerns about the war in Ukraine and global monetary policy. Source: Bloomberg Forex Indices Commodities WTI S&P 500 AUD/USD Stocks recover but markets still confront a wall of worry None of the big risks to the market has disappeared. The war in Ukraine is raging and threatening to add fuel to already hot global inflation. Central banks are tightening their policies to combat surging price growth and China continues to confound as health and economic policy created a mixed growth outlook. With all of this going on, risk appetite has improved in the past week, with stock markets on the rise and riskier currencies flying. Here we look at three key markets to watch as investors confront the proverbial wall of worry. Top three markets to watch 1. WTI Crude Source: TradingView Risk looks skewed to the upside for oil as the conflict in Ukraine threatens exports from Russia and production across the region. Despite the pullback from recent highs, WTI remains in an uptrend, with momentum clearly moving higher. In the near-term, technical resistance can be found at around $US113.50 per barrel, while major support sits around a confluence of support levels – including trendline support – just above $US100.00. 2. S&P 500 Source: TradingView Defying the risks posed by the war in Ukraine and more hawkish Fed policy, the S&P 500 is enjoying a tech-led surge, with the index recording its strongest week of gains since November 2020 last week. Momentum has shifted to the upside for the index, with the market breaking through trendline resistance. The next key level of resistance is around 4530/40 now, which if broken may open a play towards the 100-day MA. Support might be found at the index’s 200-day MA. 3. AUD/USD Source: TradingView Surging commodity prices, a strong Australian market, improving risk-appetite and a reversal in short positioning has sparked a major rally – and potential trend reversal – in the AUD/USD. The pair has carved out a clear trend channel with momentum picking up after breaking resistance at 0.7400. The AUD/USD has hit technical resistance now at 0.7480, however, if that breaks, it may open a charge towards 0.7550. Previous resistance at 0.7400 may now become support. Follow Kyle Rodda on Twitter @KyleR_IG Take your position on over 13,000 local and international shares via CFDs or share trading – and trade it all seamlessly from the one account. Learn more about share CFDs or shares trading with us, or open an account to get started today. Kyle Rodda | Market Analyst, Australia 23 March 2022

Hi @amilio, You can transfer your funds on your share dealing account to your CFD account. You will be able to use this balance to open CFDs positions. You can transfer funds from My IG > Live accounts > Transfer funds: I hope that it helps. All the best - Arvin

Hi @Pump_Alpha, Thank you for your post, I reached out to the account opening team. We will send you an email as your application requires further information. Thank you - Arvin

Source: Bloomberg Commodities Aluminium Petroleum Brent Crude Metal Benchmark (crude oil) Aluminium Australia’s ban on alumina and bauxite exports to Russia, the two most essential ingredients for producing aluminium, pushed up the price for the most widely used metal. While aluminium hasn’t been targeted by sanctions, the production of the metal is facing server disruption following the new move. The 'everyday metal', which is used in everything from the production of cans and smartphones to cars and airplanes, was already running low before the Ukraine war isolated the second-largest exporter from the world economy. As such, the price of aluminium has climbed to its all-time high above $3800 per ton early this month. The daily chart shows the price has bounced back from 50 MA and targets 20 MA following three consecutive gaining sessions. The long-term bull momentum since December remains valid as demonstrated by the ascending trend line connected by the lows. The four-hour chart also suggests the strength of the price as the candlestick is now betraying all the major moving averages and is glued in an upward trajectory. The next resistance is looking at the $3638, which will help the metal regain all the loss in the past two weeks. The months-long trend line will support the price at around $3268 per ton. Aluminium daily chart Source: IG Aluminium hourly chart Source: IG Brent Crude The price of Brent Crude oil has been moving up for the sixth straight day and kicked off the new week by more than a 6% jump. Brent Crude, the global benchmark, is trading as high as $114.80 a barrel on Tuesday, enjoying a weekly gain of over 15%. The price rises in the backdrop of EU foreign ministers meeting in Brussels to discuss further sanctions against Russia. The price of the most crucial energy fell from its decades-high level two weeks ago and is now attempting to move back to its rooftop. The daily chart shows the price has conquered the short-term indicator to stand on the 20 days moving average, with both 50 and 100 MAs are a distance away. For the near term, the level of $117.4 would be a key hurdle before the price re-enters into the $120 plus zone. A support area between $108 to $109 can be found from the daily trend line. From the sentiment point of view, the RSI in the hourly chart has touched on the oversold territory, which could slow down the bull-bias buying in the near term. However, the RSI level from the daily chart is still under the average level for the past two months, meaning there is potential for the price to edge higher. Brent Crude daily chart Source: IG Brent Crude hourly chart Source: IG Follow Hebe Chen on Twitter @BifeiChen Take your position on over 13,000 local and international shares via CFDs or share trading – and trade it all seamlessly from the one account. Learn more about share CFDs or shares trading with us, or open an account to get started today. Hebe Chen | Market Analyst, Australia 22 March 2022

Hi @BlakePicton, Since it is still considered 3 separate contracts that you entered there will be 3 commissions for each deal/closing. All the best - Arvin

Hi @hkominos, Effectively UK ISA and accounts are available for UK tax payer. I do know that if you move out of UK you will need to create a new account in the relevant region you are in as the customer agreements and products will differ accordingly to the local regulations. Reach out to helpdesk.uk@ig.com or use our live chat feature to confirm if you can keep your ISA account open. All the best - Arvin

The four-day rally in AUD/USD appears to be stalling as it struggles to test the yearly high. The exchange rate may consolidate over the remainder of the month if it snaps the series of lower highs and lows. Source: Bloomberg Forex United States dollar Australian dollar AUD/USD Federal Reserve Monetary policy Australian dollar forecast: AUD/USD rally stalls ahead of yearly high AUD/USD gives back the advance from the start of the week as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powellreiterates that 'the economy is very strong and is well positioned to handle tighter monetary policy,' with the central bank head going onto say that the central bank could 'move more aggressively by raising the federal funds rate by more than 25 basis points' while speaking at the annual conference held by National Association for Business Economics (NABE). It seems as though the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will prepare American households and businesses for a further shift in monetary policy as Chairman Powell warns that 'an extended period of high inflation could push longer-term expectations uncomfortably higher, which underscores the need for the Committee to move expeditiously,' and a growing number of Fed officials may look to adjust the exit strategy at the next interest rate decision on May 4 as the central bank pledges to 'restore price stability.' Until then, swings in investor confidence may sway AUD/USD as the rebound in risk appetite appears to be propping up the commodity bloc currencies, and a further advance in the exchange rate may fuel the recent flip in retail sentiment like the behavior seen during the previous year. Source: TradingView The IG Client Sentiment report shows 37.84% of traders are currently net-long AUD/USD, with the ratio of traders short to long standing at 1.64 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 15.65% higher than yesterday and 25.76% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 18.48% higher than yesterday and 41.40% higher from last week. The decline in net-long position comes as AUD/USD struggles to retain the advance from the start of the week, while the jump in net-short interest has fueled the recent flip in retail sentiment as 40.65% of traders were net-long the pair during the first full-week of March. With that said, AUD/USD may attempt to test the yearly high (0.7441) if it manages to retain the series of higher highs and lows carried over from last week, but the advance from the January low (0.6968) may turn out to be a correction in the broader trend as the Fed normalizes monetary policy ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). AUD/USD rate daily chart Source: TradingView AUD/USD trades above the 200-Day SMA (0.7299) for the first time since June 2021 as it clears the yearly opening range in March, with a break/close above the 0.7440 (23.6% expansion) region opening up the 0.7560 (50% expansion) to 0.7570 (78.6% retracement), which lines up with the October high (0.7556). However, AUD/USD may consolidate over the remainder of the month as it struggles to test the yearly high (0.7441), with a move below the 0.7370 (38.2% expansion) region bringing the 0.7260 (38.2% expansion) area back on the radar as the series of higher highs and lows from the monthly low (0.7165) unravels. Need a break/close below the Fibonacci overlap around 0.7130 (61.8% retracement) to 0.7180 (61.8% retracement) to open up the 0.7070 (61.8% expansion) to 0.7090 (78.6% retracement) region, with a break of the January low (0.6968) bringing the 0.6940 (78.6% expansion) area on the radar. Follow David Song on Twitter @DavidJSong This information has been prepared by DailyFX, the partner site of IG offering leading forex news and analysis. This information Advice given in this article is general in nature and is not intended to influence any person’s decisions about investing or financial products. The material on this page does not contain a record of IG’s trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. David Song | Analyst, DailyFX, New York City 22 March 2022

Hi @AJTT101, You can customise your price and dealing alerts on My IG > Settings > Price and dealing alert: I hope that it helps All the best - Arvin

The Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) is gaining as Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe warms to the prospects of interest rate rises, despite a worrying housing bubble. Source: Bloomberg Forex Inflation Australia Central bank Australian dollar Bank It now takes 74 US cents to buy one Australian Dollar (AUD/USD), up 5.7% from 70 cents at the start of February. The Australian economy is in its own league compared to that of other western financial systems. The fiscal futures of its 26 million-strong population are dictated strongly by commodity cycles and the fortunes of its largest global trade partner, China, which accounts for a third of its global trade. But right now, the biggest factor influencing the currency’s direction comes from inflation, slow wage growth, and the sky-high housing market. Australian Dollar: interest rates The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has an inflation target of 2-3%. But with headline inflation running at 3.5%, pressure to increase the cash interest rate from its record low of 0.1% is rising. The UK and USA have both already moved from record low rates. However, Bank governor Philip Lowe argues Australia is ‘closer to the point where inflation is sustainably in the target range…but we are not yet at that point.’ However, he accepts ‘it is plausible that the cash rate will be increased later this year.’ The governor is keen to delay rate rises until wage growth strengthens, with wages only increasing by 2.3% last year. KPMG Chief Economist Brendan Rynne thinks this it will be August before rates increase, saying ‘it will be sometime before the RBA will consider they are achieving "sustainable increases" and therefore upwards movement in the cash rate is justified.' However, with the supply chain crisis exacerbated by Russia’s war in Ukraine, Lowe believes that the supply chain issues that were ‘gradually being resolved’ will now worsen and ‘extend the period of inflation being above central banks’ targets.’ This could create a scenario where ‘the higher inflation would be more persistent and broad-based, and require a larger monetary policy response.’ And he emphasised that the Reserve Bank will ‘do what is necessary to maintain low and stable inflation in Australia.’ Commonwealth Bank Chief Economist Gareth Aird believes the Reserve Bank is ‘closer to raising interest rates than at any other time over the pandemic,’ and expects the cash rate to rise in June. It’s worth noting that Australia’s dependency on commodities has ensured historically tighter monetary policy than in Western counterparts. With US and UK Consumer Prices inflation at 7.9% and 5.5% respectively, Australia’s central bank is unlikely to be complacent about the inflationary danger. Source: Bloomberg AUD/USD: housing market In Australia, residential property prices soared an astonishing 23.7% to a median price of $920,100 in 2021. And according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the total value of all 10.8 million houses in the country has grown by $2 trillion to $9.9 trillion. Lowe has sounded the alarm that ‘with interest rates at historically low levels, it is important that lending standards are maintained and that borrowers have adequate buffers.’ Accordingly, lenders are now required to stress test prospective borrowers’ ability to cope with a 3% increase in mortgage rates. But with inflation rising fast, these tests could be becoming outdated too quickly. Moreover, research from Australia’s National Housing Finance and Investment Corporation shows the average first-time buyer is locked out of 70% of the market, and must now spend nine years saving for a deposit. And further, Australian Prudential Regulation Authority data shows 24.4% of new mortgages in the final quarter of 2022 had a debt-to-income ratio of six or more, putting recent buyers into mortgage stress territory. This could become a problem. Commonwealth Bank believes house prices will fall slightly in 2022, and then correct a further 9% in 2023 across all of Australia's major cities. And CoreLogic’s Eliza Owen concurs that price falls are imminent, saying ‘there are more headwinds than tailwinds now stacked against continued growth in the property market, with the potential for sooner than expected cash rate increases, affordability constraints, and weakening consumer sentiment slowing demand.' The Australian Reserve Bank now has the task of unpicking rising inflation, sustaining wage growth, and keeping the housing market from imploding. But with rate rises expected to become necessary soon, the Australian Dollar could continue to strengthen. Trade 100+ FX pairs with the UK’s No. 1 retail forex provider.* Enjoy fast execution, low spreads – plus we’ll never fill your order at a worse price. Learn more about our forex trading platform or create an account to start trading today. Charles Archer | Financial Writer, London | Publication date: Tuesday 22 March 2022 03:54

Despite the Fed’s commitment to sharply accelerate its removal of accommodation, the S&P 500 earned a 6.1 percent weekly charge and one of the best four-day stretch of gains in decades. Source: Bloomberg Indices Federal Reserve Central bank S&P 500 Monetary policy Stock market index Risk appetite musters an impressive rally despite headwinds The past decade has shown that us that market sentiment is hardy. In the face of trade wars, economic throttling and even an ongoing pandemic; markets have consistently reverted back to a ‘risk on’ mentality. As such, perhaps it isn’t that surprising that US indices and other sentiment benchmarks charged higher this past week despite the third week of Russia’s assault on Ukraine while the Federal Reserve stated clearly its intentions to drain excess liquidity from the market in a bid to fight rampant inflation. It would certainly be ‘convenient’ for bullish interests to prevail in this traditionally long-only asset class, but the financial backdrop is not nearly as inspiring of conviction as it once was. There are serious issues with forecasts for economic expansion, market returns that are falling behind rising costs and a very public removal of the ‘central bank put’. There isn’t a definitive, singularly important and scheduled event that can set the tone in the week ahead, but there is plenty for traders and investors to chew on. While the incoming feed of market motivators is important to watch, I am worried first and foremost about collective sentiment. For the S&P 500, we will enter the new week with a meaningful technical milestone that can provide a further lift if broken or exact pressure for a reversal. The midpoint of 2022’s range and the 200-day moving average happen to align at 4,470 on the index and 445 on the SPDR ETF. Chart of SPY S&P 500 ETF with 100-day mov avg with 3-day rate of change (daily) Source: TradingView While my analysis is frequently tailored to the next 24 to 48 hours of trade, it worth considering a bigger picture as equity indices and other central assets determine their next phase. In the context of the first quarter of the year, we have seen a sizable bounce in a larger bearish shift – itself a move that is attempting to change tack on the post pandemic bull trend. Though the rebound has been relatively short lived thus far, it was nevertheless an impressive charge. In fact, in each of the four days through Friday, the S&P 500 managed to print a one percent or greater gain on each of the green candles. We haven’t seen such an impressive bullish consistence since early November 2020 after the US Presidential election (which saw a seven-day climb of that magnitude). Before that, we hadn’t see that kind of move since 1982; and there were only a handful of these instances going back to 1930. In short, last week offered an unmistakably bullish performance; but that does not guarantee a long-standing trend. Poll: where will S&P 500 end the week Poll from twitter.com, @JohnKicklighter The two major themes to keep tabs on As we move into the new trading week, the top two themes that we have been tracking through March will remain my principal concerns for volatility – whether it express in bullish or bearish movement. The situation in Ukraine remains ultimately unpredictable given that Russia has yet to take efforts to broker a ceasefire seriously. Through this past week, the meeting between US President Biden and Chinese President Xi failed to produce a definitive commitment from the world’s second largest economy to back away from supporting the militaristic aggressor. I’ll keep a wary eye on the headlines to see if peace suddenly breaks out to support a relief rally or if the cumulative sanctions bites into global economic potential to the detriment of risk trends. Otherwise, monetary policy will be the more predictable matter. We are leaving behind a week of rate hikes – by the Fed, Bank of England, Brazilian Central Bank – but there has been noticeably little gain in local currencies or the implications of risk aversion. That is genuinely a surprise, but can we expect another lasting disconnect from central bank warnings as balance sheets legitimately shrink? I think it can last for ‘longer than I think rational’, but it will eventually anchor markets. Chart of relative monetary policy of the major central banks Chart created by John Kicklighter Speaking of monetary policy, the Federal Reserve’s turn at the podium this past week was the most aggressive take overall. While it wasn’t a 100 basis point move like its Brazilian counterpart, the US authority has vastly more influence over the global markets. A 25 basis point hike and an official forecast projecting a hike at each of the next six meetings this year (next is scheduled for May 4th) is very hawkish even in historical terms. Furthermore, the rhetoric around stimulus withdrawal is turning even the doves into raptors. On Friday this past week, one of the most dovish members of the Federal Reserve – Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari – said he supported a much faster reduction of the balance sheet (called quantitative tightening). That will raise long-term rates with previous Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke equating every $150-200 billion in stimulus to a 25 basis point rate hike. The balance sheet has grown from approximately $1 trillion to nearly $9 trillion from 2008 to present. With this ahead, I find it remarkable that the Dollar hasn’t at least pushed a new multi-year high. Yet, with other central banks seen as turning more hawkish, it acts to water down the Greenback’s appeal…but for how long? Chart of DXY dollar index with 100-day SMA overlaid with implied may Fed rate hike (daily) Source: TradingView The other event risk and markets to watch Outside of the dominant fundamental and speculative tracks, there is plenty to watch over the coming week. While we may not have a FOMC rate decision, there is plenty on the monetary policy front that is worthy of analysis. For data points, you have updates like the UK inflation data on Wednesday. However, I am paying closer attention to the many central bank speeches scheduled throughout the week. The Fed has the greatest representation among speakers through the five-day span with a virtual parade of speakers spanning both the hawkish to dovish ends of the scale. Fed Chair Powell will start it off on Wednesday with a speech at an NABE conference and will speak again later in the week. Heads of the ECB, BOE, SNB and RBA are all due to offer their views throughout the week. Speaking of the UK, I will also take in the Chancellor of the Exchequer’s spring address with updated growth forecasts from the OBR. Another data-led theme to watch will be the release of the March PMIs for the major developed world economies. These are key proxies for official GDP for a period (March) that has been exposed to tumult. Calendar of major economic events Calendar created by John Kicklighter Among the many markets to watch over the coming week, I am most interested in the highly risk sensitive assets. The S&P 500 at the midpoint of its 2022 bear trend is just one of these key measures. The Yen crosses present another vary interesting mix. These pairs benefit risk appetite trends, growing interest rate differentials and high commodity prices. All three have been a factor in the charge we have seen through the past week, but we have seen raw material inflation slow, and I am dubious of the continued charge in sentiment. Of these three influences, if risk aversion kicks in, it would likely override the market and pull markets down. That said, I have a lower risk tolerance and will look for confirmation in technical, fundamental and market conditions terms rather than try to pick tops. Among the crosses, I like GBPJPY, CADJPY, AUDJPY and others. However, USDJPY remains the most remarkable in technical terms and retail speculation has been particularly remarkable. Looking at client positioning at IG, 80 percent of those with an exposure to the major pair has a short on. This is a contrarian reading at extremes, but retail traders aren’t always wrong. Source: TradingView Follow John Kicklighter on Twitter @JohnKicklighter This information has been prepared by DailyFX, the partner site of IG offering leading forex news and analysis. This information Advice given in this article is general in nature and is not intended to influence any person’s decisions about investing or financial products. The material on this page does not contain a record of IG’s trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. John Kicklighter | Analyst, DailyFX, New York City 21 March 2022