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ArvinIG

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  1. ArvinIG
    Alibaba and Tencent’s rumoured decision to partner up could mean the levelling of the playing field for investors, according to an IG analyst.

    Source: Bloomberg   Shares Tencent Alibaba Group Big Tech China WeChat
        Alibaba Group Holding Limited (HK) share price jumped up 3.7% a day after it was reported that the company is seeking to accept Tencent’s WeChat Pay as a payment method on its e-commerce platforms Tencent Holdings Ltd share price also rallied as much as 2.8% IG analyst Yeap Jun Rong says this latest tie-up eases some regulatory concerns On the other hand, it also begs the question of whether these steps are enough to appease authorities On Tuesday, China’s antitrust regulator also approved Tencent’s proposed takeover of the country’s third largest search engine, Sogou Inc Interested to trade Alibaba and Tencent shares at just a fraction of the cost? Open a full or demo account with us today to get started. Alibaba, Tencent share price: why are they on the rise?
    Chinese technology titans Alibaba Group Holding Ltd and Tencent Holdings Ltd are reportedly considering introducing their services on each other's platforms.
    Both companies are seeking to remove restrictions that will allow Tencent's WeChat Pay to be accepted as a payment mode on Alibaba's online marketplaces - Taobao and Tmall, according to a Wall Street Journal report on Wednesday (14 July 2021).
    A day after the report, Tencent shares rallied as much as 2.8%, while Alibaba shares spiked up 3.7%.
    IG market strategist Yeap Jun Rong says that this potential tie-up implies that the landscape for China tech companies ‘may have shifted’.
    ‘Near-term, it may ease some concerns by showing that these big tech companies are taking steps to adhere to regulations, softening some regulatory risks from authorities,’ says Yeap.
    ‘On the other hand, there may be some uncertainty on whether authorities will be satisfied with just this move, or whether there may still be more to come. There will also be some uncertainty revolving around the impact to growth potential by opening up to competition.’
    Despite this air of ambiguity, Yeap is optimistic that investors do not have to avoid China’s big tech in the long run. He says that as more countries start gaining more control over big tech firms, the playing field may ultimately be levelled.
    However, in the short run, ‘investors may still be awaiting more clarity, considering that both Tencent and Alibaba are still largely in a downtrend, with a series of lower price highs and lower price lows since February’, he adds.
    Are the tides turning for China’s big tech firms?
    This latest move to collaborate comes amid an ongoing crackdown by the Chinese government on anti-competition practices among the country's top tech companies.
    In April, Alibaba was fined a record US$2.8 billion, while Tencent was one of 34 companies that was instructed to improve its problematic practices.
    Nevertheless, investors had other reasons to cheer this week.
    On Tuesday, China's anti-competition body - the State Administration for Market Regulation, approved Tencent's proposal to acquire the country's third largest search engine Sogou Inc in a private US$3.5 billion undertaking.
    Markets have been watching with bated breath on the outcome of the deal, as it would indicate where Beijing currently stands in its clampdown strategy.
    In fact, the Hang Seng Index rose 1.9% following the announcement, recording its biggest gain in three weeks.
    ‘Regulators are still considering each deal case by case and not rejecting all of them. The sentiment is not that negative now,’ Castor Pang, head of research at Core Pacific Yamaichi, told Bloomberg. ‘Any good news will trigger buying on dips in the sector.’
    What’s your call on Chinese big tech stocks?
    Go short and long with spread bets, CFDs and share dealing on 16,000+ shares with the UK’s No.1 platform.* Learn more about trading shares with us, or open an account to get started today.
    * Best trading platform as awarded at the ADVFN International Financial Awards and Professional Trader Awards 2019.

    Kelvin Ong | Financial writer, Singapore
    Thursday 15 July 2021
  2. ArvinIG
    WHAT IS A FOREX TRADING STRATEGY?
    A forex trading strategy defines a system that a forex trader uses to determine when to buy or sell a currency pair. There are various forex strategies that traders can use including technical analysis or fundamental analysis. A good forex trading strategy allows for a trader to analyse the market and confidently execute trades with sound risk management techniques.
    FOREX STRATEGIES: A TOP-LEVEL OVERVIEW
    Forex strategies can be divided into a distinct organisational structure which can assist traders in locating the most applicable strategy. The diagram below illustrates how each strategy falls into the overall structure and the relationship between the forex strategies.

    FOREX TRADING STRATEGIES THAT WORK
    Forex trading requires putting together multiple factors to formulate a trading strategy that works for you. There are countless strategies that can be followed, however, understanding and being comfortable with the strategy is essential. Every trader has unique goals and resources, which must be taken into consideration when selecting the suitable strategy.
    There are three criteria traders can use to compare different strategies on their suitability:
    Time resource required Frequency of trading opportunities Typical distance to target To easily compare the forex strategies on the three criteria, we've laid them out in a bubble chart. On the vertical axis is ‘Risk-Reward Ratio’ with strategies at the top of the graph having higher reward for the risk taken on each trade. Position trading typically is the strategy with the highest risk reward ratio. On the horizontal axis is time investment that represents how much time is required to actively monitor the trades. The strategy that demands the most in terms of your time resource is scalp trading due to the high frequency of trades being placed on a regular basis.

    1. PRICE ACTION TRADING
    Price action trading involves the study of historical prices to formulate technical trading strategies. Price action can be used as a stand-alone technique or in conjunction with an indicator. Fundamentals are seldom used; however, it is not unheard of to incorporate economic events as a substantiating factor. There are several other strategies that fall within the price action bracket as outlined above.
    Length of trade:
    Price action trading can be utilised over varying time periods (long, medium and short-term). The ability to use multiple time frames for analysis makes price action trading valued by many traders.
    Entry/Exit points:
    There are many methods to determine support/resistance levels which are generally used as entry/exit points:
    Fibonacci retracement Using candle wicks Trend identification Indicators Oscillators Within price action, there is range, trend, day, scalping, swing and position trading. These strategies adhere to different forms of trading requirements which will be outlined in detail below. The examples show varying techniques to trade these strategies to show just how diverse trading can be, along with a variety of bespoke options for traders to choose from.
    2. RANGE TRADING STRATEGY
    Range trading includes identifying support and resistance points whereby traders will place trades around these key levels. This strategy works well in market without significant volatility and no discernible trend. Technical analysis is the primary tool used with this strategy.
    Length of trade:
    There is no set length per trade as range bound strategies can work for any time frame. Managing risk is an integral part of this method as breakouts can occur. Consequently, a range trader would like to close any current range bound positions.
    Entry/Exit points:
    Oscillators are most commonly used as timing tools. Relative Strength Index (RSI), Commodity Channel Index (CCI) and stochastics are a few of the more popular oscillators. Price action is sometimes used in conjunction with oscillators to further validate range bound signals or breakouts.
    Example 1: USD/JPY Range Trading

    USD/JPY has been exhibiting a prolonged range bound price level over the past few years. The chart above illustrates a clear support and resistance band which traders use as entry/exit points. The RSI oscillator demonstrates timing of entry/exit points as highlighted by the shaded blue and red boxes – blue: overbought and red: oversold.
    Range trading can result in fruitful risk-reward ratios however, this comes along with lengthy time investment per trade. Use the pros and cons below to align your goals as a trader and how much resources you have.
    Pros:
    Substantial number of trading opportunities Favourable risk-to reward ratio Cons:
    Requires lengthy periods of time investment Entails strong appreciation of technical analysis 3. TREND TRADING STRATEGY
    Trend trading is a simple forex strategy used by many traders of all experience levels. Trend trading attempts to yield positive returns by exploiting a markets directional momentum.
    Length of trade:
    Trend trading generally takes place over the medium to long-term time horizon as trends themselves fluctuate in length. As with price action, multiple time frame analysis can be adopted in trend trading.
    Entry/Exit points:
    Entry points are usually designated by an oscillator (RSI, CCI etc) and exit points are calculated based on a positive risk-reward ratio. Using stop level distances, traders can either equal that distance or exceed it to maintain a positive risk-reward ratio e.g. If the stop level was placed 50 pips away, the take profit level wold be set at 50 pips or more away from the entry point.
    Example 2: Identifying the Trend

    In the simple example above, EUR/USD exhibits an upward trend validated by higher highs and higher lows. The opposite would be true for a downward trend.
    EUR/USD Trading the Trend

    When you see a strong trend in the market, trade it in the direction of the trend. For example, the strong uptrend in EUR/USD above.
    Using the (CCI) as a tool to time entries, notice how each time CCI dipped below -100 (highlighted in blue), prices responded with a rally. Not all trades will work out this way, but because the trend is being followed, each dip caused more buyers to come into the market and push prices higher. In conclusion, identifying a strong trend is important for a fruitful trend trading strategy.
    Trend trading can be reasonably labour intensive with many variables to consider. The list of pros and cons may assist you in identifying if trend trading is for you.
    Pros:
    Substantial number of trading opportunities Favourable risk-to reward ratio Cons:
    Requires lengthy periods of time investment Entails strong appreciation of technical analysis 4. POSITION TRADING
    Position trading is a long-term strategy primarily focused on fundamental factors however, technical methods can be used such as Elliot Wave Theory. Smaller more minor market fluctuations are not considered in this strategy as they do not affect the broader market picture. This strategy can be employed on all markets from stocks to forex.
    Length of trade:
    As mentioned above, position trades have a long-term outlook (weeks, months or even years!) reserved for the more persevering trader. Understanding how economic factors affect markets or thorough technical predispositions, is essential in forecasting trade ideas.
    Entry/Exit points:
    Key levels on longer time frame charts (weekly/monthly) hold valuable information for position traders due to the comprehensive view of the market. Entry and exit points can be judged using technical analysis as per the other strategies.
    Example 3: Germany 30 (DAX) Position Trading

    The Germany 30 chart above depicts an approximate two year head and shoulders pattern, which aligns with a probable fall below the neckline (horizontal red line) subsequent to the right-hand shoulder. In this selected example, the downward fall of the Germany 30 played out as planned technically as well as fundamentally. Towards the end of 2018, Germany went through a technical recession along with the US/China trade war hurting the automotive industry. Brexit negotiations did not help matters as the possibility of the UK leaving the EU would most likely negatively impact the German economy as well. In this case, understanding technical patterns as well as having strong fundamental foundations allowed for combining technical and fundamental analysis to structure a strong trade idea.
    List of Pros and Cons based on your goals as a trader and how much resources you have.
    Pros:
    Requires minimal time investment Highly positive risk-to reward ratio Cons:
    Very few trading opportunities Entails strong appreciation of technical and fundamental analysis 5. DAY TRADING STRATEGY
    Day trading is a strategy designed to trade financial instruments within the same trading day. That is, all positions are closed before market close. This can be a single trade or multiple trades throughout the day.
    Length of trade:
    Trade times range from very short-term (matter of minutes) or short-term (hours), as long as the trade is opened and closed within the trading day.
    Entry/Exit points:
    Traders in the example below will look to enter positions at the when the price breaks through the 8 period EMA in the direction of the trend (blue circle) and exit using a 1:1 risk-reward ratio.
    Example 4: EUR/USD Day Trading

    The chart above shows a representative day trading setup using moving averages to identify the trend which is long in this case as the price is above the MA lines (red and black). Entry positions are highlighted in blue with stop levels placed at the previous price break. Take profit levels will equate to the stop distance in the direction of the trend.
    The pros and cons listed below should be considered before pursuing this strategy. Day trading involves much time and effort for little reward, as seen from the EUR/USD example above.
    Pros:
    Substantial number of trading opportunities Median risk-to reward ratio Cons:
    Requires lengthy periods of time investment Entails strong appreciation of technical analysis 6. FOREX SCALPING STRATEGY
    Scalping in forex is a common term used to describe the process of taking small profits on a frequent basis. This is achieved by opening and closing multiple positions throughout the day. This can be done manually or via an algorithm which uses predefined guidelines as to when/where to enter and exit positions. The most liquid forex pairs are preferred as spreads are generally tighter, making the short-term nature of the strategy fitting.
    Length of trade:
    Scalping entails short-term trades with minimal return, usually operating on smaller time frame charts (30 min – 1min).
    Entry/Exit points:
    Like most technical strategies, identifying the trend is step 1. Many scalpers use indicators such as the moving average to verify the trend. Using these key levels of the trend on longer time frames allows the trader to see the bigger picture. These levels will create support and resistance bands. Scalping within this band can then be attempted on smaller time frames using oscillators such as the RSI. Stops are placed a few pips away to avoid large movements against the trade. The MACD indicator is another useful tool that can be exercised by the trader to enter/exit trades.
    Example 5: EUR/USD Scalping Strategy

    The EUR/USD 10 minute above shows a typical example of a scalping strategy. The long-term trend is confirmed by the moving average (price above 200 MA). The smaller time frame is then used to target entry/exit points. Timing of entry points are featured by the red rectangle in the bias of the trader (long). Traders can also close long positions using the MACD when the MACD (blue line) crosses over the signal line (red line) highlighted by the blue rectangles.
    Traders use the same theory to set up their algorithms however, without the manual execution of the trader.
    With this practical scalp trading example above, use the list of pros and cons below to select an appropriate trading strategy that best suits you.
    Pros:
    Greatest number of trading opportunities from all forex strategies Cons:
    Requires lengthy periods of time investment Entails strong appreciation of technical analysis Lowest risk-to reward ratio 7. SWING TRADING
    Swing trading is a speculative strategy whereby traders look to take advantage of rang bound as well as trending markets. By picking ‘tops’ and ‘bottoms’, traders can enter long and short positions accordingly.
    Length of trade:
    Swing trades are considered medium-term as positions are generally held anywhere between a few hours to a few days. Longer-term trends are favoured as traders can capitalise on the trend at multiple points along the trend.
    Entry/Exit points:
    Much like the range bound strategy, oscillators and indicators can be used to select optimal entry/exit positions and times. The only difference being that swing trading applies to both trending and range bound markets.
    Example 6: GBP/USD Swing Trading Strategy

    A combination of the stochastic oscillator, ATR indicator and the moving average was used in the example above to illustrate a typical swing trading strategy. The upward trend was initially identified using the 50-day moving average (price above MA line). In the case of an uptrend, traders will look to enter long positions with the old adage of ‘buy low, sell high’.
    Stochastics are then used to identify entry points by looking for oversold signals highlighted by the blue rectangles on the stochastic and chart. Risk management is the final step whereby the ATR gives an indication of stop levels. The ATR figure is highlighted by the red circles. This figure represents the approximate number of pips away the stop level should be set. For example, if the ATR reads 41.8 (reflected in the last ATR reading) the trader would look to place the stop 41.8 pips away from entry. At DailyFX, we recommend trading with a positive risk-reward ratio at a minimum of 1:2. This would mean setting a take profit level (limit) at least 83.6 (41.8 x 2) pips away or further.
    After seeing an example of swing trading in action, consider the following list of pros and cons to determine if this strategy would suit your trading style.
    Pros:
    Substantial number of trading opportunities Median risk-to reward ratio Cons:
    Entails strong appreciation of technical analysis Still requires extensive time investment 8. CARRY TRADE STRATEGY
    Carry trades include borrowing one currency at lower rate, followed by investing in another currency at a higher yielding rate. This will ultimately result in a positive carry of the trade. This strategy is primarily used in the forex market.
    Length of trade:
    Carry trades are dependent on interest rate fluctuations between the associated currencies therefore, length of trade supports the medium to long-term (weeks, months and possibly years).
    Entry/Exit points:
    Strong trending markets work best for carry trades as the strategy involves a lengthier time horizon. Confirmation of the trend should be the first step prior to placing the trade (higher highs and higher lows and vice versa) – refer to Example 1 above. There are two aspects to a carry trade namely, exchange rate risk and interest rate risk. Accordingly, the best time to open the positions is at the start of a trend to capitalise fully on the exchange rate fluctuation. Regarding the interest rate component, this will remain the same regardless of the trend as the trader will still receive the interest rate differential if the first named currency has a higher interest rate against the second named currency e.g. AUD/JPY.
    Could carry trading work for you? Consider the following pros and cons and see if it is a forex strategy that suits your trading style.
    Pros:
    Little time investment needed Median risk-to reward ratio Cons:
    Entails strong appreciation of forex market Infrequent trading opportunities FOREX STRATEGIES: A SUMMARY
    This article outlines 8 types of forex strategies with practical trading examples. When considering a trading strategy to pursue, it can be useful to compare how much time investment is required behind the monitor, the risk-reward ratio and regularity of total trading opportunities. Each trading strategy will appeal to different traders depending on personal attributes. Matching trading personality with the appropriate strategy will ultimately allow traders to take the first step in the right direction.
    ENHANCE YOUR FOREX TRADING
    If you’re new to forex trading, download our Forex for Beginners Trading guide. Register for free to view our live trading webinars which cover various topics related to the Forex market like central bank movements, currency news, and technical chart patterns. Stay up to date with major news events and economic releases by viewing our economic calendar. Successful trading requires sound risk management and self-discipline. Find out how much capital you should risk on your open trades. We also recommend viewing our Traits of Successful Traders guide to discover the secrets of successful forex traders.
      Warren Venketas, Markets Writer
    13 July 2021

     
  3. ArvinIG

    What are the best MT4 and MT5 alternatives?

    By ArvinIG,


    Analyst article
    MetaTrader 4 and 5 are no longer available on the Apple App Store. Find out which trading platforms you can use on your mobile to keep seizing trading opportunities.

    Source: Bloomberg   Shares IOS Mobile app App Store (iOS/iPadOS) Apple Inc. Google Play   What’s on this page?
    1. MT4 and MT5 removal from iOS: what you need to know2. MT4 workaround on iOS3. MT4 and MT5 alternatives MT4 and MT5 removal from iOS: what you need to know
    In September 2022, Apple removed the MT4 and MT5 apps from the App Store. This will impact new and existing users. New users can no longer download the application, and existing users won’t be able to update it in future. It’s likely that the app won’t function without the necessary updates.
    Traders using the MT4 or MT5 app on an Android device (downloaded from Google Play) aren’t affected by this change.
    MT4 workaround on iOS
    There is an MT4 workaround for iPhone and iPad users. If you use our MT4 VPS, it’s possible to log into the VPS using a remote desktop app on your device. This is the same software some of our clients use to access the VPS on a PC.
    It’s important that you use the remote desktop app link provided here, as certain imitations can cause harm to your device.
    This MT4 workaround also gives you access to expert advisors – a function not available on the app. Here are the steps to access MT4 on your Apple device:
    Open a spread betting or CFD trading account or log in Add MT4 to your account Set up your MT4 VPS Search for the Remote Desktop Mobile app from Microsoft on the App Store Log into the VPS on your iOS device using your existing VPS login details Learn more about how to get started with MT4
    MT4 and MT5 alternatives
    There are a few alternative trading platforms you could use on your mobile instead of MT4 or MT5, such as our web platform, trading app, ProRealTime and L2 Dealer.
    Our award-winning web platform and app
    We have the world’s best trading platform and app1 – and it’s free to use. You can download it from the iOS App Store as well as Google Play and use it on your desktop or mobile.
    When you use our web platform, you can:
    Access fast execution – your trades will never be filled at a worse price Use easy-to-understand HTML5 charts Get trading signals and alerts Learn more about our trading platform and app
    ProRealTime
    The ProRealTime (PRT) platform is available on PC and Mac. It has an easy-to-use algo tool, as well as its own marketplace – like MT4 – where you can buy custom indicators and trading systems. When using PRT, you can:
    Create customised timeframes and time zones Get market screening tools Access more than 100 technical indicators Join a community forum Learn more about ProRealTime
    L2 Dealer
    L2 Dealer is popular among experienced traders. It’s available on PC. With L2 Dealer, you can access share and forex DMA trading, which gives you direct access to the order book of the exchange.
    Forex trading with L2 Dealer is only available for pro traders.
    Learn more about L2 Dealer
    Anzél Killian | Financial writer, Johannesburg
    28 September 2022
  4. ArvinIG
    As 2022 heads towards a seemingly inevitable recession, some of the larger US tech stocks are becoming ever more reasonably priced.

    Source: Bloomberg   Like the 2020 covid-19 pandemic crash, and the financial crisis of 2008 preceding it, 2022 is gearing up to be a financial bloodbath.
    The Nasdaq Composite fell 4.73% yesterday alone, and is down nearly 28% year-to-date.
    Of course, this is a very different crisis; one of supply chain shocks, sky-high inflation and labour shortages.
    And while the UK’s oil and bank heavy FTSE 100 is perfectly positioned to take advantage of record commodity highs and rising interest rates, the opposite is true of the US’s Nasdaq Composite. The high-growth index is packed with technology stocks that rely on being watered with the nectar of loose monetary policy.
    But those days are gone. The US Federal Reserve, in common with many western central banks, is moving to clip its $9 trillion balance sheet and increase interest rates to potentially as high as 2.9% says the Economist Intelligence Unit.
    Meanwhile, former Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein has warned the risk of recession is ‘very, very high.’
    This leaves NASDAQ stocks with high debt, or in the early stages of growth, in peril. The likes of Peloton, Zoom and DocuSign have already collapsed from their share price highs. Of course, they could deliver exceptional returns if they successfully weather the oncoming storm, but this is by no means guaranteed.
    On the other hand, the NASDAQ Composite also includes market titans that have been hit by the shotgun spread of negative market sentiment, despite boasting strong balance sheets, defensive qualities, and continued growth in the face of the 2022 recession.
    2022 recession: 5 top NASDAQ sell-off stocks to watch
    1) Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN)
    Amazon, the largest e-commerce stock in the world, saw net sales rise by 22% to $469.8 billion in 2021. And it still delivered growth in Q1 2022, despite online sales dropping slightly.
    Further growth potential can be found in its AWS cloud computing platform, which has grown 34% annually over the past two years. AWS is now the cloud market leader, with 33% of global market share according to Finbold, more than Microsoft’s Azure and Google’s Cloud offerings combined.
    And with new CEO Andy Jassy spearheading a $10 billion share buyback scheme and 20-for-1 stock split, Amazon’s share price remains down 37% year-to-date.
    2) Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL)
    The Google and YouTube owner saw revenue grow by an impressive 23% year-over-year to $68 billion in Q1. Despite representing ten times the Q1 revenue of 2010, it’s still a slowdown compared to pandemic breakthroughs.
    However, Google search revenue grew by $8 billion to $39 billion, demonstrating its stranglehold in the search arena. And Insider Intelligence data indicates that Google will capture a colossal 29% of total global online ad spend in 2022.
    While YouTube is seeing revenue increases slow as TikTok steals market share, Google Cloud’s 43% growth was highlighted as ‘strong’ by CEO Sundar Pichai.
    Like Amazon, it’s proposing a 20-for-1 stock split in the summer and has its own share buyback scheme of $70 billion. While ad spending could decrease in the 2022 recession, the giant’s dominant market position makes it defensively resilient, despite being down 23% year-to-date.
    3) Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT)
    Microsoft is the computer company that changed the world. When David Letterman asked Bill Gates what the internet was back in 1995, the audience laughed, and Gates replied ‘the new big thing.’ Early investors who were watching have been handsomely rewarded.
    In Q3 results, revenue rose 18% to $49.4 billion, representing exceptional growth and demonstrating the company’s market grip. Chairman and CEO Satya Nadella enthused that ‘digital technology will be the key input that powers the world’s economic output.’
    Like and Amazon and Alphabet, its executive vice chair and CFO Amy Hood lauds its cloud platform as key to continued growth, saying ‘continued customer commitment to our cloud platform and strong sales execution drove better than expected commercial bookings growth of 28% and Microsoft Cloud revenue of $23.4 billion, up 32% year over year.’
    Microsoft increased its share buybacks by 25% to $12.4 billion in the quarter yet remains down 24% year-to-date. Moreover, its proposed purchase of Activision could see further growth as the metaverse develops.
    4) PayPal (NASDAQ: PYPL)
    PayPal, one of the first forays of serial inventor Elon Musk, is like Microsoft in that it benefits from first-mover advantage, but in the FinTech space.
    2021 revenue soared by 18.4% year-over-year to $25.4 billion. And the company is projecting growth of between 11% and 12% in 2022; impressive, yet slower than the previous pandemic-charged two years.
    However, PayPal has indicated it expects to reach 750 million active accounts by 2025, a compound annual growth rate of 20%.
    And it expects to hit $1.4 trillion in payment volume in 2022, up from $1.25 trillion last year.
    With its share price down 60% year-to-date, the FinTech has a price-to-earnings ratio of 25, less than a third of pandemic levels.
    And despite increased competitors, PayPal’s current $90 billion market cap is whalelike compared to direct rivals like Payoneer, and almost twice that of Shopify.
    Further growth could come from its consumer-focused digital wallet, Venmo, which is already accepted by Amazon as a payment choice.
    5) Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: FB)
    Meta, the owner of Facebook, WhatsApp, and Instagram, is the largest social media company in the world. With just shy 2 billion daily active users on Facebook alone, the social media giant is used 24/7 by more than a quarter of the world’s population.
    The NASDAQ-listed company has been hit hard by a series of headwinds in 2022; the rise of TikTok, falling active users earlier in the year, political scrutiny, Apple’s privacy changes, and investor dissatisfaction with its Metaverse focus.
    However, in Q1 results CEO Mark Zuckerberg enthused ‘we remain confident in the long-term opportunities and growth that our product roadmap will unlock…more people use our services today than ever before.’
    Revenue rose by 7% year-over-year to $27.9 billion, and the company expects Q2 revenue to grow further to between $28 to $20 billion. The social media company also repurchased $9.39 billion of stock, with a further $29.41 billion authorized for further repurchases.
    Moreover, its headcount is up 28% on the year to 77,805 as it expands its Metaverse vision. Down 43% year-to-date, Meta is a NASDAQ market titan that may be oversold as the 2022 recession progresses.
    *Based on revenue excluding FX (published financial statements, June 2020).

    Charles Archer | Financial Writer, London
    19 May 2022
  5. ArvinIG
    The FTSE 100 stock, which has been trading sideways recently, fell below 45p a share this week.

    Source: Bloomberg   Shares Lloyds Banking Group Stock Chief executive officer UBS Bank   Lloyds (LON: LLOY) shares are down by over 3% this week Former HSBC executive took over as chief executive on Monday (16 August 2021) He joins Lloyds, the UK’s third largest bank by market capitalisation, two weeks after its acquisition of Embark One of his immediate tasks will be the group’s “Strategic Review 2021” Interested in trading Lloyds shares? Open an account with us to get started. New chief executive fails to lift market sentiments
    Lloyds Banking Group’s new chief executive Charlie Nunn is off to a rocky start. At least that’s what the bank’s share price performance so far this week is telling us.
    Nunn assumed his new role officially on Monday. Lloyds shares have since fallen 3.4%.
    Market performance aside, Nunn says he feels ‘privileged’ to step into the role of chief executive, as Lloyds ‘is an organisation I’ve observed and admired from a distance for many years’.
    ‘So while I have a good feel for the business and its role in the sector, I know I still have a lot to learn about Lloyds Banking Group – and there’s nothing like getting up close and personal to really understand an organisation,’ he wrote in a post on day one.
    ‘That’s why I’m planning to spend the first few months getting to know our people, our customers and our business better before outlining any strategic plans.’
    He will then turn his attention to the group’s “Strategic Review 2021”, first announced in February 2021. Other matters, including a recent £390 million acquisition of retirement solutions provider Embark, will likely be high on Nunn’s to-do list.
    The former HSBC executive’s appointment was first announced last November, replacing Antonio Horta-Osorio, who held the position for a decade.
    Why are analysts divided on the stock?
    Two weeks ago, the group reported its H1 2021 results, in which profits jumped up to £3.9 billion, against a £0.6 billion loss in H1 2020.
    Credit Suisse, JPMorgan and UBS analysts then raised their target prices on Lloyds shares, which are up 27.5% so far this year.
    Credit Suisse maintained an ‘outperform’ call on the stock while lifting the price target on LLOY to 61p from 60p a share, on the back of higher revised earnings for the rest of 2021, 2022 and 2023.
    UBS raised its price target to 55p from 54p previously alongside a ‘buy’ rating, while JPMorgan, which continues to recommend ‘outperform’, is now eyeing a fair value estimate of 60p, up from 59p before.
    However, Goldman Sachs cut its rating on the stock to ‘sell’ from ‘neutral’ and price target to 45p from 50p.
    The firm believes that mortgage pricing is ‘again becoming a headwind’ for UK banks, and as such sees ‘risks being skewed to the downside, with mortgage pricing testing prior trough levels of around 80-90bp becoming a distinct possibility’.
    Feeling bullish or bearish about Lloyds? Take your position today
    Go short and long with spread bets, CFDs and share dealing on 16,000+ shares with the UK’s No.1 platform.* Learn more about trading shares with us, or open an account to get started today.
    * Best trading platform as awarded at the ADVFN International Financial Awards and Professional Trader Awards 2019
    Kelvin Ong | Financial writer, Singapore
    18 August 2021
  6. ArvinIG
    The US government asked Aussie baby food maker Bubs to send 1.25 million tins to feed America’s youngest and hungriest. Bubs shares soared 40% on the news. But can these little American babies support this valuation past July?

    Source: Bloomberg   Valuation Revenue United States Profit Market Gross income   Bubs Australia Limited is one of Australia’s larger baby formula manufacturers with revenue of AUD60 million in 20221 and a valuation of AUD417 million – up 42% in a day.
    Three questions come to mind:
    Is an order of 1.25 million tins to the US worth the extra $100 million plus valuation? Will this make the company profitable? What is the share price going to do? Let’s start with the order of 1.25 million tins (500,000 immediately and another 750,000 to come).
    Does the order value justify a 40% jump in Bubs shares?
    The 40% rise — over $100 million in value – would suggest a long-term impact of this order.
    On its own, however, the order seems far smaller than the valuation seems to imply.
    Bubs’ tins of baby formula retail for between $22 (normal) and $33 (goat milk) on Amazon.com.au. Clearly, an export order of 1.25 million tins is going to be well below the retail price point. In addition, given that Bubs’ gross profit margin over the past four years has averaged only about 20%, the contribution to gross profit will likely be no more than $2-4 per tin – around A$2.5-5 million in total.
    An additional $5 million of gross profit seems unlikely to justify a $100 million extra valuation.
    Will Biden’s big order make Bubs profitable long term?
    Bubs has been growing rapidly, with revenue in the six months to 31 December up a massive 83.9% over the previous year.
    However, the engine for this growth was China. This is potentially a problem given the extensive lockdowns in the country and high likelihood of disruptions from the ongoing trade war.
    Even with the rapid China-led sales growth, Bubs was unable to make ends meet, recording a modest loss of $602k.
    At the moment, it looks like Bubs is maintaining its sales with $17.6 million revenue in the most recent quarter (compared to $33.6 million in the previous six months).
    So far so good. An extra $2.5-5 million of gross profit could make it profitable, all else being equal.
    However, costs are soaring.
    In its most recent filing with the Australian Stock Exchange, the company recorded manufacturing and operating costs of $22.6 million – $5 million MORE than its revenue for the period. Add in the $6.1 million in staff, corporate, and advertising costs and there appears to be $11 million in red ink on the horizon.
    The US market probably won’t be the solution either.
    The US market continues to be dominated by just a few players with significant economies of scale. Breaking into this market when there isn’t a shortage would usually result in razor thin margins.
    If Bubs can turn this one-off deal into a regular pipeline, then it could possibly turn a long-term profit. However, established brands with their long-term relationships with established supply chains may just nudge Bubs back off the shelves.
    Where to next for Bubs shares?
    After the market’s initial exuberance and a 42% price spike to 69c, Bubs shares have trended gradually down to 60.5c now. This is still a hefty 25% above the pre-announcement level of 48.5c. Put another way, that’s still a $73 million valuation gain based on the announcement.
    Given that this is most likely a once-off deal and that recent filings suggest costs will continue to exceed revenue, it looks like this trend back to 45c could continue.
    Take your position on over 13,000 local and international shares via CFDs or share trading – and trade it all seamlessly from the one account. Learn more about share CFDs or shares trading with us, or open an account to get started today.
    Footnotes:
    1. Bubs presentation to investors on 22 February 2022.

    Peter Keusgen | Financial Writer
    16 June 2022
  7. ArvinIG
    The yen is at its lowest level against the US dollar since late 2018. Will Fumio Kishida's election victory combined with continued ultra-loose monetary policy see the currency fall even further?

    Source: Bloomberg   Forex Japanese yen Fumio Kishida Bank Abenomics Monetary policy   As one of the four major currency pairs, USD/JPY is closely watched by IG investors. Currently, 70% of client accounts are short on the pair. With inflation in Japan stable, and monetary policy loose, these could be position trades, held for months or even years. At a multi-year low, 1 dollar will buy 114.24 yen right now. And it could fall even further.
    Trade USD/JPY now Japanese elections
    Yesterday, Fumio Kishida’s Liberal Democratic Party won an outright electoral majority. The party secured 261 seats, 28 more than the 233 needed to govern without a coalition partner. Japan’s Nikkei 225 and TOPIX indices both rose over 2% today, as investors believe that the new Prime Minister can now push through his economic stimulus plans worth trillions of yen.
    Kishida is selling his economic policy as the ‘new capitalism,’ while its detractors on social media are likening it to China’s ‘common prosperity.’ One fierce critic, Rakuten’s CEO Hiroshi Mikitani, tweeted ‘Does he even understand how capitalism works?’ He was particularly unhappy with proposals to raise Capital Gains Tax (CGT) amid fears it would halt the rise of retail investors in the country. When Kishida took over as Prime Minister a few weeks ago, Japan’s stock markets fell sharply, forcing him to backtrack on his CGT policy. But with a fresh mandate, the plan could now resurface.
    Kishida believes a new economic policy is needed to distribute wealth more fairly in Japan. His predecessors, Yoshihide Suga and Shinzo Abe, pursued ‘Abenomics,’ which consisted of aggressive monetary easing, fiscal consolidation and growth. Overall, Abenomics was successful at growing Japan’s previously sluggish economy. The Nikkei 225 went from 10,000 yen in 2012 to 30,000 yen by February 2021.
    However, Kishida contends that Abenomics has only helped to make the rich richer. There’s some merit to this argument — according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, average wages in Japan have stagnated compared to the US and Germany. And 10% of the 2,500 companies on the Tokyo stock exchange now have cash and deposits worth more than their market caps.
     
    Will the Japanese yen weaken even further against the US dollar?
    Trade 100+ FX pairs with the UK's No. 1 forex provider.* Enjoy fast execution and low spreads. We'll never fill your order at a worse price. Create an account with IG to start trading forex today.
    * By number of primary relationships with FX traders (Investment Trends UK Leveraged Trading Report released June 2020).

    Source: Bloomberg Monetary policy
    The Bank of Japan is sticking to an ultra-loose monetary policy. This sets it apart from almost every other central bank. In the US, it’s likely that the Federal Reserve will soon announce ‘tapering’ of its pandemic stimulus as well as interest rate rises next year. Athanasios Vamvakidis, head of G10 forex strategy at Bank of America said that ‘we have a real policy divergence here….the Fed might start hiking next year, while the Bank of Japan is stuck at zero.’
    Meanwhile, the bank’s Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said that ‘The positive impact on exports and corporate profits at the overseas subsidiaries of Japanese companies far exceeds the negative impact of rising import costs…under the current economic and price conditions, the yen's weakening to this extent is no doubt a plus.’ And last week, he announced that the Bank would keep short-term interest rates at -0.1% and continue to buy exchange-traded funds with an upper purchase limit of 12 trillion yen.
    And Kishida’s plans for a new 10 trillion-yen university endowment fund could send the currency sinking even lower. Forex speculators would likely sell the currency as the newly created yen hits the international money markets. Moreover, Japan depends on imported energy, which is becoming ever more expensive. The country will have to spend increasingly more yen to acquire the oil and gas it needs, which will also harm the currency.
    So the yen could weaken even further in the short term. However, Japan is a low inflation country in a world where inflation is causing headaches everywhere else. Investors could come flooding back to the currency should there be another global financial crash. And it’s also possible that investors are overreacting to the new political situation.
    Charles Archer | Financial Writer, London
    02 November 2021
  8. ArvinIG
    Lake Resources shares have been in sensational form over the past three months as share prices climbed 20% last week, 80% higher since mid-July.

    Source: Bloomberg   Indices Lithium ASX Technical analysis Stock market   Lake Resources is a clean lithium developer utilizing clean, direct extraction technology to develop sustainable, high-purity lithium from its flagship Kachi Project, as well as three other lithium brine projects in Argentina.
    What happened to Lake Resources last week?
    On September 7th, Lake Resources appointed David Dickson as CEO and managing director after six months of searching. Dickson has a proven track record in successfully delivering multi-billion-dollar resource projects and thus is expected to fast-track Lake Resources’ key projects and marketing milestones in North and South America.
    After the announcement, Lake Resources jumped up nearly three percent, being the only ASX 200 materials share that recorded a gain that day.
    Lake Resources welcomed their new CEO
    Despite the broad downtrend across the stock market, forward-looking investors have been drawn to the rising lithium prices and bright outlook alongside the ASX lithium shares outperforming record for this year.
    Indeed, the global demand for lithium is expected to grow at an enviable pace and surpass two million metric tons of lithium carbonate equivalent in 2030, more than doubling the demand forecast for 2025.
    Lithium is a core ingredient in the batteries that power the world’s ever-growing fleet of EVs. With the world transitioning from fossil fuels, the sharp increase in EV battery demand is set to be an exceptionally strong driver of lithium consumption in the next decade or even longer.

    Source: Statista However, even in light of the robust demand, the competition that Lake Resource faces is far from easy. In terms of market capital, Lake Resources only made it to the ninth position in the Australian lithium market and on a production scale, Lake Resources has some way to go before being noticed as one of the top players.
    Therefore, it's understandable that a new phase in the company's history painted with a scalable and innovative prospect brought by the new leader is viewed as the best news for the shareholders.
    As Mr Dickson stated, “Lake Resources has the opportunity to set a new global standard for producing clean, high-purity lithium at speed and scale, at a time when lithium demand is growing rapidly. To be a part of the global energy transition and bring a crucial new technology into large-scale lithium production is an immense privilege.”

    Source: Market Index Lake Resources technical analysis
    Lake Resources shares have been in sensational form over the past three months with the share price climbing up 20% last week, and 80% higher since mid-July.
    While the price retreated in the new week, it remained above the 20-day moving average to suggest the near-term momentum stays valid. Any further slips would be supported by the 50-day moving average before retesting the critical 23.8% Fibonacci level at $1.018.
    If the price keeps climbing in the upcoming days, the pressure will come from the August high at $1.487.
    Lake Resources weekly chart

    Source: IG   Hebe Chen | Market Analyst, Melbourne 
    13 September 2022
  9. ArvinIG
    UK banks have seen their uptrends stall, with some caution regarding the outlook for the UK reflected in declines for Lloyds’ and Barclays’ share prices.

    Source: Bloomberg   Shares United Kingdom Price Barclays NatWest Market sentiment  
    What’s the outlook for UK banks?
    The UK economic recovery appears to have slowed, and this is worrying news for UK bank stocks. Barclays, NatWest and Lloyds are all highly dependent on the British economy and consumer/business spending. A slowdown here would be reflected in earnings and would pose a risk to the ongoing rally in bank stocks that has held up fairly well since October last year.
    UK banks have been bolstered by news that the Bank of England (BoE) has removed the rules around dividends and buybacks, but their shares have yet to respond in a positive fashion. Indeed, the sector has seen a pullback since its peak in early June, although the overall uptrend is still intact. Paradoxically, this may be a good thing as we prepare for first-half earnings from UK-listed banks, since it indicates that expectations around performance have been trimmed, allowing for the possibility that earnings will be well-received.
    UK banks share price – technical analysis
    Barclays Lloyds NatWest  
    Barclays share price
    The Barclays share price peaked for the time being in April around 190p, and since then a steady decline has taken place.
    However, the price appears to have found support around 160p, heading towards the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 156p and edging higher. The key now is a break above short-term trendline resistance from late June, which would suggest a rally above 170p, in order to establish a more bullish view.
     

    Source: ProRealTime Learn more on how to buy, sell and short Barclays shares
    Lloyds share price
    Lloyds’ overall uptrend remains intact despite some weakness since the beginning of June.
    The shares remain in a descending channel from the June high, with a move above 46.8p required to signal a breakout is in progress. This would also signal that the bounce from 43.3p has created a higher low, helping to revive the uptrend and negating the negative view created by the drop below the 100-day SMA (44.9p).
     

    Source: ProRealTime Learn more on how to buy, sell and short Lloyds shares
    NatWest share price
    For NatWest, the uptrend has paused, with gains stalling around 210p since the beginning of June.
    Dips into the 190p zone have found support, so another bounce towards 210p seems likely, with a more long-term bullish view requiring a push above (and daily close above) 210p.
     

    Source: ProRealTime Learn more on how to buy, sell and short NatWest shares

    Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London
    22 July 2021
  10. ArvinIG
    AMAZON, APPLE, EARNINGS, NASDAQ – TALKING POINTS
    Amazon stock falls after-hours on earnings miss, disappointing guidance Apple misses on revenue, stock price sinks after the New York closing bell AMAZON THIRD-QUARTER EARNINGS
    Amazon’s stock price dropped in after-hours trading following a disappointing third-quarter earnings release. The e-commerce company reported earnings per share of $6.12 versus an expected $8.92. Revenue also came in under expectations at $110.81 billion. That was Slightly less than the $111.6 billion Wall Street expected.
    Traders sold the stock on the disappointing numbers, as well as less than rosy fourth-quarter guidance. Amazon stock traded as low as 4% shortly following the earnings data. The downbeat Q4 guidance is a result of higher forecasted labor costs, supply chain issues, and higher shipping costs. The headwinds are a result of Covid-induced issues as global supply struggles to keep up with demand. One bright spot is a 39% year-over-year increase in Amazon Web services revenue. That follows a 37% y/y gain in the prior quarter.
    AMAZON 5-MINUTE CHART
    Chart created with TradingView
    APPLE FOURTH-QUARTER EARNINGS
    Apple reported its fourth-quarter figures shortly after Amazon, but the iPhone company also reported lackluster numbers. Q4 earnings per share crossed the wires at $1.24, which was in line with Wall Street expectations. However, revenue missed the expected $84.69 billion mark at $83.36 billion. The stock traded down by nearly 5% in after-hours trading.
    However, sales from the new iPhone 13 started just days before Apple’s quarter-end cutoff. Investors will be keen to hear any commentary during the company’s conference call, where executives are likely to be pressed over supply chain issues. Apple hasn’t offered guidance since the pandemic started, which leaves analysts to come up with their own predictions.
    APPLE 5-MINUTE CHART
    Chart created with TradingView
    Thomas Westwater, Analyst for DailyFX.com
    29 October 2021
    DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.
    DISCLOSURES
  11. ArvinIG
    Moderna’s Q2 results are expected to show that sales of its Covid-19 vaccine have more than doubled from the first quarter to boost revenue.

    Source: Bloomberg   Shares Moderna Share price COVID-19 vaccine Revenue Price   When is Moderna earnings date?
    Moderna, the messenger ribonucleic acid (mRNA) medicines based company, is expected to release quarter two (Q2) of 2021 results on 5 August 2021. The scheduled results will cover the groups second quarter and half-year earnings (H1).
    Moderna results preview: what does the Street expect?
    Moderna is expecting a strong first quarter (Q1) to be followed up with an even stronger Q2, boosted by commercial sales of its Covid-19 vaccine. 2021's Q1 saw $1.7 billion in revenue from the three month period as 102 million doses of the Covid-19 vaccine were sold. Moderna in its last results update forecast 200 to 250 million doses to be sold in 2021's Q1. As of the last quarter the group had already signed Advanced Purchase Agreements (APAs) for product sales amounting to $19.2 billion for the full year.
    Consensus estimates as sourced from Refinitiv arrive at the following in terms of the groups upcoming results:
    Revenue for H1 of 2021 of $21.779 million is expected (+74% year on year) Earnings per share (EPS) of $4.25 for H1 of 2021 expected (vs $2.01 in H1 2020) How to trade the Moderna results
    A Refinitiv poll of 18 analysts maintain a long-term average rating of ‘hold’ for Moderna (as of 2 August 2021), with two of these analysts recommending a strong buy, seven recommending a buy, six hold and three sell recommendations on the stock.

    Source: Refinitiv Data  
    The long-term price target (mean) for Moderna from these analysts is $205.07, suggesting that the share price currently trades at a significant premium (42%) to suggested fair value.
    Find out more on how to buy, sell and short Moderna shares
    Moderna share price: technical analysis

    Source: IG charts  
    The share price of Moderna entered into a strong upward trend at the beginning of May 2021. The aggressive move higher has however moved the share price firmly into overbought territory.
    Traders respecting the uptrend will look to keep a long bias to trades, although recognize that the overbought signal suggests that they may be afforded long entry at a better price.
    Our preference is look for entry into a pullback towards a confluence of both trendline and gap support around the 260.00 level. Only on a move below the major low at 216.20, would we reassess the uptrend bias currently prevalent.
    Summary
    Moderna results are scheduled for release on 5 August 2021 Revenue for H1 2021 of $21.779 million is expected (+74% year on year) EPS of $4.25 for H1 of 2021 are expected (vs $2.01 in H1 2020) The long-term price target (mean) for Moderna is $205.07 The long-term trend for Moderna remains up, although the share price is overbought in the near term Shaun Murison | Senior Market Analyst, Johannesburg 
    03 August 2021
  12. ArvinIG
    Markets swung wildly last week as fears over the delta variant of covid bulged then faded. This initially caused a notable deterioration in risk appetite that steered stocks sharply lower. The Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 were down between -1.5% and -2.7% at their low points, but as sentiment recovered amid prevailing ‘buy-the-dip’ mentality, these major stock indices ended up finishing the week at record highs yet again.
    Bonds behaved similarly with economic growth concerns initially sending Treasury yields on a steep descent that reversed as trading progressed. Likewise, crude oil prices dropped as much as -8.7% last week only to erase those losses and finish 0.7% higher on balance. This wave of volatility briefly fueled huge spikes in the VIX Index and OVX Index to hit nine-week and 13-month highs, respectively. The VIX Index and OVX Index closed lower on the week nevertheless as market angst subsided.
    Although, the MOVE Index, which is a 30-day implied volatility reading derived from options on Treasury bonds, finished the week at its highest level since March. To that end, with bond market volatility expected to stay elevated, there is potential for other asset classes like stocks, commodities, and currencies to continue experiencing violent gyrations alongside yields. This seems quite reasonable – particularly when considering the plethora of high-impact risk events and data releases scheduled on the economic calendar for the week ahead.
    MAJOR CURRENCIES AND GOLD PERFORMANCE AGAINST US DOLLAR
    The Federal Reserve meeting on deck arguably stands out as the biggest catalyst for volatility due to its often market-moving potential. While the Fed announcement due Wednesday, 28 July at 18:00 GMT is widely expected to leave monetary policy unchanged, there is growing risk that the central bank tweaks language to its press statement. As such, traders will likely have a keen eye out for guidance on the FOMC’s substantial further progress objective and potential upcoming adjustments to the pace of asset purchases.
    This brings US Dollar price action into focus as a barometer for gauging the market’s relative hawkish or dovish read on the Fed. US Dollar strength across the board of major currency pairs next week might indicate that the Fed is taking inflation and taper talks seriously. On the other hand, a weaker US Dollar post-Fed could indicate that the central bank is sticking to its transitory inflation narrative and staying cautiously accommodative. The latter scenario would likely correspond with positive boosts to risk assets and precious metals like gold and silver. Traders will be watching for updated inflation data out of the US, Eurozone, Canada, and Australia on tap next week as well. Progress reports on economic recoveries across the US and Euro-area will also be provided with advanced Q2 GDP data slated for release. The Euro, in addition to the DAX 30, CAC 40, and STOXX 50, are all poised to digest this fresh information through the lens of how it might sway ECB policy given its latest strategy review and new perspective on inflation. Last but surely not least, US equity investors will be bombarded with quarterly results as earnings season kicks into full gear. What else is in store for markets in the week ahead?
    FUNDAMENTAL FORECASTS
    Gold Price Forecast: Risk of Volatility as Fed Meeting Looms
    Gold price action is primed for volatility next week with the Fed decision on deck. How real yields and the US Dollar react to fresh guidance from Fed officials will be key for gold outlook.
    Euro Forecast: EUR/USD Price Outlook Bearish Ahead of Key Eurozone Data
    EUR/USD tumbled last week on the day of the ECB’s latest policy announcement, and that weakness is set to continue this week as a flood of major Eurozone economic statistics is released.
    AUD/USD Rate Faces Australia CPI Report & Fed Rate Decision
    AUD/USD is likely to face increased volatility over the coming days as it faces a batch of key event risks going into the end of July.
    British Pound (GBP) Weekly Forecast: Attempts to Recover as Sentiment Shifts
    Market uncertainty sees GBP pairs break out of their ranges.
    Bitcoin Outlook: Bullish Scenario May Play Out if Key Technical Support Holds
    Although the medium-term outlook remains negative, Bitcoin could make a bullish move in the coming days if prices manage to hold above key support in the $29,150/28,600 region.
    Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 Forecasts for the Week Ahead
    US indices have a packed week ahead with earnings from the major technology names, US GDP data due and an FOMC rate decision. With so much on the docket the potential for volatility is heightened.
    TECHNICAL FORECASTS
    US Dollar Technical Forecast: DXY Aims at Yearly High Despite Clashing Signals
    The US Dollar Index traded higher last week, sustaining its broader uptrend. Conflicting technical signals urge caution, but the directional bias remains skewed to the upside.
    Nasdaq 100 Index Forecast: Aiming at Breakout to Test All-Time Highs
    The Nasdaq 100 index is aiming to breach a key resistance level at 14,950 for a second time. A successful attempt may open the door to further gains, although the MACD indicator flags signs of weakness.
    Gold Price Forecast – XAU/USD Could Get Put to the Test This Week
    Gold hasn’t been very active the past few sessions, but that could change next week and provide a stronger trading bias.
    Canadian Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD Capped by Resistance Ahead of FOMC
    Canadian Dollar snapped a three-week losing streak after USD/CAD stalled at key technical resistance. The Loonie levels that matter on the weekly chart into FOMC.
    Australian Dollar Outlook Still Biased Lower: AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, AUD/NZD, AUD/CAD
    The Australian Dollar still remains vulnerable as it extends losses against its major counterparts. What is the road ahead for AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, AUD/NZD and AUD/CAD?
    DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets. DISCLOSURES
    Rich Dvorak, Analyst, Daily FX
    26 July 2021
  13. ArvinIG
    Here are three LSE mainboard stocks to watch this week.
    Source: Bloomberg   AstraZeneca share price rose slightly on Monday morning (11 October), after it reported positive results from a Covid-19 treatment trial ASOS share price plunges nearly 15% after it announced that Nick Beighton will step down as CEO Anglo American share price rallies 4% after it bought back 125,000 ordinary shares Keen to take advantage of rising and falling share prices? Open an account with us to long or short these stocks now. AstraZeneca (LON: AZN)
    Biotechnology company AstraZeneca reported positive high-level results from its TACKLE Phase III Covid-19 treatment trial.
    The trial showed that AstraZeneca's AZD7442, a long-acting antibody (LAAB) combination, achieved a statistically significant reduction in severe Covid-19 or death compared to placebo in non-hospitalised patients with mild-to-moderate symptomatic Covid-19.
    A total of 90% of participants enrolled were from populations at high risk of progression to severe Covid-19, including those with co-morbidities.
    The trial was said to have ‘met the primary endpoint, with a dose of 600mg of AZD7442 given by intramuscular (IM) injection reducing the risk of developing severe COVID-19 or death (from any cause) by 50% compared to placebo in outpatients who had been symptomatic for seven days or less’.
    In a prespecified analysis of participants who received treatment within five days of symptom onset, AZD7442 reduced the risk of developing severe Covid-19 or death (from any cause) by 67% compared to placebo.
    ASOS (LON: ASC)
    ASOS has announced a series of changes to its Board, as part of ‘the next phase of its global growth strategy’.
    Nick Beighton will step down as Chief Executive Officer after 12 years with the business, including six as CEO. A search is commencing for a successor. He will remain available to the Board until the end of 2021 to ensure a smooth handover.
    Mat Dunn, currently Chief Financial Officer, will take on the additional role of Chief Operating Officer and lead the business on a day-to-day basis, while Katy Mecklenburgh, currently Director of Group Finance, will become Interim Chief Financial Officer. These changes will take place with immediate effect.
    Separately, the online fashion marketplace also issued its annual results for the year ending 31 August 2021, in which UK sales grew 36% year-on-year on the back of higher customer numbers.
    The business has also set out plans deliver annual revenues of £7bn and an EBIT margin of at least 4%, within three to four years.
    Anglo American (LON: AAL)
    Anglo American announced that it has purchased 125,000 of its US$0.54945 ordinary shares from Goldman Sachs International, as part of its buyback programme announced on 29 July 2021.
    On 08 October 2021, the mining company paid a volume weighted average price £26.9901 per share.
    AAL will cancel the purchased shares.
    Keen to trade AstraZeneca, ASOS and Anglo American shares?
    Go short and long with spread bets, CFDs and share dealing on these three UK stocks and 16,000+ shares with the UK’s No.1 platform.* Learn more about trading shares with us, or open an account to get started today.
    * Best trading platform as awarded at the ADVFN International Financial Awards and Professional Trader Awards 2019
    Kelvin Ong | Financial writer, Singapore
    11 October 2021
  14. ArvinIG
    Find out what to expect from Tesla’s earnings results, how they will affect Tesla share price, and how to trade Tesla’s earnings.

    Source: Bloomberg   Shares Tesla, Inc. Price Profit Tesla Volatility  
    When is Tesla’s results date?
    Tesla announced that it will release its latest figures for quarter two (Q2) of 2021 on Monday, 26 July after market closes.
    Tesla share price: forecasts from Q2 results
    Based on Q2 deliveries, whose figures were released earlier this month, it was a record that was roughly within Wall Street estimates on a total of 201,250 vehicles delivered and production at 206,421. From a profit point of view, the issue is that 99% of those deliveries were made up of Model 3 and Y, less than 1% being the high-margin Model S and X models. And while newer versions of the latter two are expected to positively factor into future earnings, for the time being, traders and investors will have to settle with low-margin models to formulate the Q2 earnings story.
    There have been price increases over the past quarter in an attempt to offset supply chain pressures that included raw materials price increases and chip shortages. And while higher prices and deliveries should translate into higher revenue, overcoming tested profit margins will also be noted. Difficulties in China not just on the regulatory front but also from domestic competition, deliveries rebounding in May and June from April’s slump.
    There’s also exposure to crypto volatility, which last time around might have been a positive on bitcoin prices surging, but could be in for a bit more pain this time around given prices are considerably lower (roughly half its record $64,900 highs). Reliance on regulatory credits to take earnings into the green will wane as competitors aggressively tackle the electric vehicle (EV) market.
    But aside from the updates on its latest products, model updates, and production plans, in the end it’s about the numbers, and expectations are for an earnings per share (EPS) of $0.96, and where revenue will nearly double last year’s $6.04 billion at $11.21 billion given the delivery and price increases. Targets continue to vary significantly when it comes to Tesla share prices, the average though close to where its current market price is hovering near. Recommendations are also across the board, but average out to a hold with slight upside bias (source: finance.yahoo.com).
    Trading Tesla’s Q2 results: technical overview and trading strategies
    Technicals are of far less relevance when it comes to fundamental events that can take prices past key levels with ease, and the technical overview thus far has been consolidatory as prices oscillate staying above its main weekly long-term moving averages but where other key technical indicators are primarily neutral, an average directional movement index (ADX) no longer showing a propensity to trend in that time frame.
    On a normal day, those looking to trade conforming to the technical overview might consider reversals (initiating a buy strategy after the fist support is broken only if prices manage to recover to that level, or initiating a sell position after the first resistance level is breached first and only if prices come back down to that level), given fading a volatile move will result in getting stopped out with ease. Those expecting a breakout and for the current technical overview to fail can consider breakout strategies when prices reach those levels to capitalise on a potential move to a new zone.
     

    Source: IG  
    Tesla daily chart with retail sentiment

    Source: IG charts  
    IG client sentiment* and short interest for Tesla shares
    When it comes to client sentiment, it’s been a consistent heavy buy bias, the latest at 74% and below extreme buy 87% bias back in June as longs got enticed into closing out on the lift off of its previous short-term support level at around $540.
    As for short interest, it’s considerably less than what it was at around the same time last year, when the figure was above 60 million. As of 30 June it was nearly half that amount, at 34,093,281, and is 4.4% of the shares floated, and dropping from 39,363,717 two weeks before that (source: shortsqueeze.com).
     

    Source: IG  
    *The percentage of IG client accounts with positions in this market that are currently long or short. Calculated to the nearest 1%, as of today morning 8am for the outer circle. Inner circle is from the previous trading day.

    Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London
    16 July 2021
  15. ArvinIG
    The S&P 500 has plunged as much as 25% from its January’s peak, with a recent relief rally once again proving to be short-lived.

    Source: Bloomberg   Indices S&P 500 Valuation Risk Inflation Market liquidity   Brief overview
    The S&P 500 has plunged as much as 25% from its January’s peak, with a recent relief rally once again proving to be short-lived. As tightening of liquidity conditions continue, markets appear to have shifted from pricing for inflation risks to pricing for growth risks. This may be reflected with the continued fall in US breakeven inflation (hence, nominal Treasury yields), while commodities prices are also coming under some downward pressure. The Bloomberg Commodity Index is down close to 12% over the past month.
    What’s ahead for the S&P 500 in July?
    Volatility is set to persist into the month of July, as we look towards the several upcoming key risk events.
    1) Second-quarter earnings season
    The second-quarter earnings season will seek to provide a real test for companies. The positive correlation between S&P 500’s performance and its 12-month earnings per share (EPS) suggests that markets are already pricing for a decline in corporate earnings over the coming quarters. The still-elevated oil prices during the period measured will pose as a challenge to firms’ margins, while tighter liquidity conditions translate to a slower-growth environment. This may suggest that the risks of further re-rating in valuation and downgrades remains present at the moment. For quarter two (Q2) 2022, the estimated earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 stands at 4.3%, marking the lowest earnings growth rate reported by the index since quarter four (Q4) 2020.
     

    Source: Nasdaq  
    2) July’s FOMC meeting
    The next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting will take place on 26 – 27 July 2022, with the upcoming meeting largely guided to be a selection between a 50 or a 75 basis-point (bp) hike. The Fed Fund futures suggests that market expectations are currently leaning towards the hawkish end of a 75 bp increase. Much may depend on how the Fed brings across its forward guidance because if the central bank is able to assure markets that the path of rate hikes will tone down from September onwards, markets may potentially look beyond the aggressive 75 bp hike enacted in July and seek for a relief rally.
    Where is S&P 500’s valuation at?
    While the 25% sell-off in the S&P 500 year-till-date has driven a downward revision in valuation, its price-to-sales ratio still hovers above its peak during the dot-com bubble period. Therefore, it may be difficult to say that overall valuation is ‘cheap’ after the heavy sell-off. The upcoming earnings season will provide a test for corporate earnings, where companies may face a daunting hurdle in having to defend its valuation amid higher cost pressures and slower demand. Amid the current risk-off environment, companies may have to outperform on all fronts such as delivering stable margins, earnings resilience and positive forward guidance in order to lift market confidence in taking on more risks for the longer term.
     

    Source: Nasdaq  
    What’s next for the S&P 500?
    The S&P 500 has been trading within a series of lower highs and lower lows since the start of the year, with the formation of a new lower high this week reinforcing the ongoing downward trend. A head-and-shoulder formation seems to be in place as well and the completion of the pattern points to the 3,500 level as a point where some dip buying sentiments may surface. The 3,500 level is measured by extending the distance between the head and the neckline onto the point of breakdown of its neckline. This level also marks a confluence of support, where a key 50% Fibonacci retracement rests in place, if drawn from its Covid-19 bottom to the stimulus-induced record peak at the start of the year.
     

    Source: IG charts
    Yeap Jun Rong | Market Strategist, Singapore
     01 July 2022
  16. ArvinIG

    4D Pharma shares receive trial data boost

    By ArvinIG,


    Analyst article
    4D Pharma shares have jumped following positive clinical trial results. Where next for the biotech?

    Source: Bloomberg   Pharmaceutical industry Clinical trial Cancer Drug Biotechnology Renal cell carcinoma   Shares in 4D Pharma received a welcome boost this week after the company posted positive results from a clinical trial of its early-stage cancer drug. In Phase I/II trials the product hit its end point early in treating patients with kidney cancer. The drug was administered in combination with Merck’s drug Keytruda. 4D Pharma has a research partnership in place with the drug giant.

    Shares in the biotech jumped 29% to 58p following the encouraging test results, although they have since fallen back to 48p.

    "Today's results in renal cell carcinoma, meeting the predefined primary efficacy endpoint early in this difficult to treat population, marks another important step forward for MRx0518 and the increasing importance of the microbiome in cancer treatment," said the company’s chief scientific officer, Dr Alex Stevenson.
    Chief executive Duncan Peyton told IGTV that the data was "really meaningful... in proving [4D Pharma's] thesis."

    4D Pharma’s ‘drugs from bugs’

    The biotech company is developing a stable of drugs to treat cancer, Parkinson’s disease, irritable bowel syndrome and asthma. Its pipeline of five products is based on bacteria found in the human gut - what it terms ‘live biotherapeutics’ from the human microbiome.
    4D Pharma is dual-listed on AIM and Nasdaq and has a market capitalisation of just £91m. Two of its Parkinson’s disease products also recently received the go ahead from the US regulator to enter clinical trials.

    Trading at just 48p, the shares have lost two-thirds of their value since reaching a high of 156p in September 2020 - 56% in the past year.
    4D Pharma burning through cash
    Developing drugs is an expensive business. The biotech burned through £56m last year and only has £20m in funding left, making it likely that a cash call will be required later this year. Certainly, management said at its recent half-year results that it has enough funds to take it through to the fourth-quarter of 2022.

    4D Pharma also has a $30m cash facility lined up with Oxford Finance. The company recently signalled it may list up to $150m of shares on Nasdaq as American depository shares, following a filing with the US Security and Exchange Commission.

    Investing in biotech companies is high risk and Phase III clinical trials can prove costly. It can take more than a $1bn to bring a new drug to market. Failure rates are high and it is common for even late-stage products to fail in the clinic. The bulk of 4D Pharma’s drugs are still relatively early-stage, with two at the Phase II stage.

    The company’s technology is promising but it will need to raise further cash this year. However, securing a licensing deal or other positive trial-related news flow could provide a further boost for the shares. Its partnership with Merck is also a plus point.

    Go short and long with spread bets, CFDs and share dealing on 16,000+ shares with the UK’s No.1 platform.* Learn more about trading shares with us, or open an account to get started today.
    * Best trading platform as awarded at the ADVFN International Financial Awards 2021
    Piper Terrett | Financial writer, London
    29 March 2022
  17. ArvinIG
    The dollar’s run higher is pausing for now, but the overall bearish outlook for EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD remains firmly in place.

      Forex Commodities United States dollar Euro Australian dollar EUR/USD   EUR/USD moves sideways
    Consolidation appears to be the order of things here with EUR/USD, as the price looks to recover some of the ground lost in recent weeks. The sideways movement allows the price to work off some of its ‘oversold’ condition that has resulted from the sharp declines of recent months, and also allows the moving averages to play catch-up.
    Overall the scene appears set for a short-term recovery, although that will depend mostly on the US dollar, which is being supported both by safe-haven moves as market volatility surges and by the expectation that some Federal Reserve (Fed) speakers will begin fresh calls for 75 basis points (bps) rate hikes to fight inflation. Gains from here target $1.0637, and then towards $1.08 and the 50-day simple moving average (SMA). A move below the 2017 low at $1.034 would be a major development that would see the pair head to a 20-year low.

    Source: ProRealTime GBP/USD edges off Monday’s lows
    Monday saw a fresh two-year low for GBP/USD, but signs of stabilisation overnight have given some hope that a short-term rebound could be in play. The outlook for the UK economy remains grim however. A recession seems to be a definite possibility, as UK consumers remain squeezed by high inflation and by rate rises that have boosted borrowing costs.
    This has put the Bank of England's (BoE’s) hiking policy into question, at least in the medium term. A short bounce might see the price recover $1.25 or even head back towards $1.27, but the downtrend would remain firmly intact. Further losses below $1.225 would see the price head towards $1.208.

    Source: ProRealTime AUD/USD slips below $0.7
    Weakness in commodity prices and the general risk-off environment has meant that AUD/USD has fallen sharply in recent days, falling below $0.7 for the first time since January. Despite the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA’s) move to a hiking posture, the US dollar retains its pre-eminence, and while the debate over 50 vs 75 bps rate hikes appears to be over for now, it will likely reignite if this week’s and future consumer price index (CPI) figures remain strong.
    Additional declines target $0.6828, and then on to $0.6671, while a recovery above $0.7 might suggest a short-term low is in place.

    Source: ProRealTime

    Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London
    10 May 2022
  18. ArvinIG
    We highlight five things that investors and traders need to know

    Source: Bloomberg   Forex Indices Commodities European Central Bank China Inflation  
    Volatility falls and reflation trade revives
    After Monday’s panic-attack, financial markets have a risk-on flavour to them today, with volatility dropping across the globe. The US VIX plunged over 9% overnight, while for the Australia 200, the A-VIX has dropped by more than 5%. Diminished fear about the Delta variants spread and impact on the global economy has underpinned a revival of the so-call “reflation trade”. Global bond yields are higher today, commodity prices are up, cyclicals are outperforming and the risk-sensitive AUD/USD has pushed above 0.7350.

    Source: IG charts Oil prices rise despite increase in US inventories
    The renewed optimism surrounding the global economic outlook has boosted oil prices, despite what was un expected build in Oil - US Crude Inventories last week. The data for last week was published overnight in US trade, with oil stockpiles shown to have increased by 2.1 million barrels, versus a forecast -4.5 million barrel decrease.
    Chinese debt markets remain a concern
    Fears about Chinese financial stability continue to linger in global markets, after reports of an asset freeze of Hong Kong listed Chinese property developer Evergrande Property Services Group Limited. Chinese stocks have chopped throughout the day’s trade, with credit spreads widening once more, as investor doubts grow about pockets of financial vulnerability in China’s notoriously opaque financial system.
    ASX200 climbs on bounce in commodity prices
    The Australia 200 has caught the wave of the global relief rally, to be trading around 1% higher in mid-afternoon trade. The rally for the index has been quite broad-based, with every sector bar health care in positive territory. But it’s been the energy and materials sectors that have performed best, courtesy of the bounce in global commodity prices in recent days.
    European Central Bank (ECB) to outline new strategy tonight
    All eyes will be on the meeting of the ECB tonight, as the central bank prepares to outline the results of its recent strategy review. It’s expected the ECB will shift its inflation target to 2% and announce a future tolerance of inflation overshoot, as it fights to stoke inflation after years of disinflation in the Eurozone. The dynamic is putting some downward pressure on the EUR/USD, with the pair floating around the 1.18 handle currently.

    Source: IG charts Do you have a view on the markets? Whatever you think, you can use CFDs to trade stocks and other assets, through IG’s world-class trading platform.
    For example, to buy (long) or sell (short) a variety of local and international stocks using CFDs, follow these easy steps:
    Create an IG Trading Account or log in to your existing account Enter <Company name> in the search bar and select it Choose your position size Click on ‘buy’ or ‘sell’ in the deal ticket Confirm the trade For investors not looking to trade stocks, you can invest in shares directly through our share trading service.

    Kyle Rodda | Market Analyst, Australia
    22 July 2021
  19. ArvinIG
    Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 20th June 2022. These are projected dividends and likely to change. IG cannot be held responsible for any changes made.
    Dividends highlighted in red include a special dividend, therefore some or all of the amount will not be adjusted. Amount in brackets is the expected adjustment after special dividends excluded (where shown on major indices). Dividend adjustments due to be posted on a bank holiday will usually be posted on the previous working day. 
    If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect  your positions, please take a look at the video.
    The Juneteenth public holiday is observed on 20th June in the US . – we therefore anticipate posting the below (*) on Friday 17th

    NB: All dividend adjustments are forecasts and therefore speculative.
    A dividend adjustment is a cash neutral adjustment on your account.
     
     
    Special Dividends
            Index
    Bloomberg Code
    Effective Date
    Summary
    Dividend Amount
    SPX
    COP US
    27/06/2022
    Special Div
    0.7
     
    How do dividend adjustments work?  
    This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  20. ArvinIG
    AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR, AUD/USD, AUD/CAD, EUR/AUD – TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
    Australian Dollar facing mixed signals vs. USD, CAD and EUR AUD/USD may reverse higher on support, AUD/CAD ranging EUR/AUD downtrend remains despite recent consolidation AUD/USD 4-HOUR CHART
    The Australian Dollar faces its next potential opportunity to reverse the near-term downtrend against the US Dollar since the beginning of this month. AUD/USD is facing a combination of a rising trendline from August and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 0.7249. This is making for a critical area of support as positive RSI divergence shows that downside momentum is fading.
    The latter can at times hint at a turn higher. Still, the 20- and 50-period Simple Moving Averages (SMA) remain downward-sloping. This follows a bearish ‘Death Cross’ from earlier this month. Clearing these lines could be a signal that the Aussie is ready to mount a recovery against the Greenback. Otherwise, clearing immediate support exposes the September low at 0.71660 towards the August low at 0.7103.
      Chart Created in TradingView
    AUD/CAD 4-HOUR CHART
    The Australian Dollar continues to trade within the boundaries of a Descending Triangle against the Canadian Dollar. As such, AUD/CAD could remain in a consolidative state, with a slight downward bias, until a breakout is achieved. For now, the pair has recently tested the upper bound of the triangle floor, which seems to be a range between 0.9096 and 0.9141.
    The 50- and 100-period SMAs seem to be offering a downward bias, with a ‘Death Cross’ having been established earlier this month. Clearing the 50-period line and 0.9190 could be a signal that prices may turn higher towards the ceiling of the triangle. Otherwise, diving deeper into the floor of the triangle will bring the pair closer to a breakout and the 100% Fibonacci extension at 0.9057.
    Chart Created in TradingView
    EUR/AUD 4-HOUR CHART
    All things considered, the Australian Dollar remains on the offensive against the Euro since August. This is despite recent consolidation in EUR/AUD. The broader downtrend still remains intact, especially with a falling trendline from late August maintaining the downside focus. Still, a bullish ‘Golden Cross’ remains in play from earlier this month between the 50- and 100-period SMAs.
    Immediate resistance seems to be 1.5745, where clearing the point would expose the trendline highlighted earlier. On the flip side, immediate support seems to be at 1.5444. Breaking under the latter may open the door to retesting the October low at 1.5351. Just under the latter sits the 1.5247 – 1.5287 support zone. These are current 2021 lows set earlier this year.
    Chart Created in TradingView
     
    Daniel Dubrovsky, Strategist for DailyFX.com
    19 November 2021
    To contact Daniel, use@ddubrovskyFX on Twitter
    DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.
    DISCLOSURES
  21. ArvinIG
    Deliveroo shares jumped up nearly 10% after it was reported that German food delivery service Delivery Hero has acquired a 5.09% stake in the company.
    Video here.
    Forex Indices Shares Deliveroo IPO Delivery Hero   Deliveroo shares spiked up 10% on Monday morning (09 August 2021) to 358 pence German rival Delivery Hero has reportedly acquired a 5.09% stake in the UK platform The Deliveroo stock is still down by some 8% since its initial public offering (IPO) in March 2021 Interested in trading Deliveroo shares? Open an account with us to get started. Deliveroo stock price: what’s the latest?
    Shares of UK food delivery platform Deliveroo jumped up nearly 10% on Monday morning, after it was reported that German rival Delivery Hero acquired a 5.09% stake in the company.
    The Berlin-based Delivery Hero now owns 87.4 million of Deliveroo shares worth a total of £284.1 billion, based on Deliveroo’s closing share price of 325.10 pence last Friday.
    Deliveroo shares opened at 336.30 pence on Monday, before rising to 358.30 pence later in the session.
    Meanwhile, Delivery Hero shares, which are traded on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange, fell over 1% following the report.
    Delivery Hero also owns minority stakes in other food delivery players internationally, including Europe’s largest platform Just Eat Takeaway.com.
    Both Deliveroo and Delivery Hero compete directly in the Middle East through the latter’s Talabat brand, and in Hong Kong and Singapore via the Foodpanda app, but not in the UK - Deliveroo’s largest market.
    Delivery Hero sold its UK operations, Hungryhouse, in 2016 to Just Eat.
    Jefferies analyst Giles Thorne told The Financial Times 'it is hard to say with conviction at this point what Delivery Hero’s intention is’ behind this latest minor stake take-up.
    What's your view on Deliveroo? Take a long or short position today
    Go short and long with spread bets, CFDs and share dealing on 16,000+ shares with the UK’s No.1 platform.* Learn more about trading shares with us, or open an account to get started today.
    * Best trading platform as awarded at the ADVFN International Financial Awards and Professional Trader Awards 2019
    Deliveroo’s IPO was ‘one of the most disastrous in memory’
    The Deliveroo stock is still down by some 8% since its debut on the London Stock Exchange in March this year at a launch price of 390 pence per share.
    Deliveroo’s flotation was one of the most anticipated IPOs on the LSE in years, but its share price quick collapse to under 250 pence less than a month later gave it the reputation of being ‘one of the most disastrous IPOs in memory’.
    According to Fraser Thorne, CEO of The Edison Group, ‘the warning signs were there’, adding that it has become ‘a case study of how not to do an IPO’.
    Nevertheless, Deliveroo shares have climbed up about 15% in the last one month, thanks to a growth forecast upgrade on 08 July.
    Kelvin Ong | Financial writer, Singapore
    Monday 09 August 2021
  22. ArvinIG
    easyJet’s share price could be on the path to recovery, as it ramps up capacity to accommodate the anticipated summer boom.

    Source: Bloomberg   Shares EasyJet Airline Revenue Flight attendant Airport   At 517p apiece, easyJet (LON: EZJ) shares remain 59% below their pre-pandemic crash level and have fallen by 44% since their May high of 922p last year.
    And now all hopes for its share price recovery rest on a resurgent summer season.
    easyJet share price: half-year results
    Results brought broadly positive news for easyJet shareholders. Revenue increased by a substantial 524.2% to £1.498 billion compared to the same pandemic-ravaged half last year, where it made just £240 million. Within this, ancillary revenue rose by 632.9% to £513 million.
    Capacity increased from 6.4 million to 30.2 million, driving passenger revenue up by 479.4% to £985 million, ‘as we flew increased levels of capacity compared to the same period last year.’ Passenger revenue per seat, a key metric, rose by 22.7% to £32.49.
    And the FTSE 250 company highlighted that trade began to strengthen in February and March as Omicron restrictions were removed.
    However, despite the positive trajectory, easyJet made another headline loss, this time of £545 million. While this is a better result than the £701 million it lost in the same half last year, headline costs rose by 117% to £2.043 billion, ‘primarily due to the increase in flown capacity.’
    But the airline operator has reduced net debt by a third down to £600 million since September and has no debt set to mature until 2023. Further, it has a strong cash position, with a cash and equivalents balance of around £3.5 billion.
    Further, the airline is currently hedged for 71% of jet fuel, and 29% hedged for H1 FY23, restricting the margin impact of currently sky-high oil prices. However, it told investors that higher fuel and USD exchange rates were ‘layering additional cost in H2.’
    CEO Johan Lundgren exhorted that ‘easyJet has reduced its losses year on year, at the better end of guidance. The pent-up demand and removal of travel restrictions provided for a strong and sustained recovery in trading.’

    Source: Bloomberg Where next for easyJet shares?
    easyJet says it ‘faces summer 2022 with optimism,’ and that customers are ‘returning strongly to us whilst also driving a step changed revenue capability.’
    Lundgren expects ‘to operate 90% of FY19 capacity in Q3’ and revealed that easyJet has a ‘capacity on sale of around 97% of FY19 flying in Q4.’ He hopes this will leave the airline as ‘a winner in the post pandemic recovery of European aviation.’
    And while business and city traffic remains below pre-pandemic levels, perhaps reflecting the cultural shift towards remote working, ‘in the second half of the year leisure and domestic routes have fully recovered with capacity at 113% and 104% of FY19 levels respectively.’
    Meanwhile, ‘easyJet holidays is continuing to build, as the UK’s fastest growing holiday company and remains on track to carry >1.1 million passengers in FY22 with over 70% of the program sold.’ Overall, forward bookings are 76% sold for Q3 and 36% sold for Q4.
    However, Lundgren admitted ‘it has been well documented that the industry is experiencing some operational issues so, as you would expect, we have been absolutely focused on taking action to ensure we have strengthened our operational resilience for this summer.’ This includes ‘proactively managing the schedule, reducing cancellations through various measures such as, boosting recruitment, and improving ID processing.’
    However, the reputational damage is already done. With thousands of flights cancelled, missing luggage, and airport chaos, angry customers include stranded holidaymakers, business people, honeymooners, and in one extreme case, a customer who missed the chance to see their dying mother after their flight was cancelled.
    But despite the disruption, easyJet argues ‘bookings continue to be strong as we have seen demand, post the impact of the Omicron variant, returning with the removal of travel restrictions.’
    To cope with its staffing crisis, it’s even removing some seats, with easyJet now ‘operating our UK A319 fleet with a maximum of 150 passengers onboard and three crew in line with CAA regulations.’ The airline is legally compelled to provide one cabin crew member per 50 passengers.
    Despite costing precious revenue, airlines are usually held liable for compensation for flight cancellations within two weeks of departure. And staff shortages is not an acceptable excuse.
    HSBC analyst Andrew Lobbenberg Open My IG ‘what we can see, looks decent. Winter remains the unknown. Concerns over weakening consumer confidence in the autumn abound. We think there is a possibility that these fears may be overdone. We expect consolidation, aircraft and labour shortages combined to limit capacity and support yields in a challenging economic environment.’
    But with inflation at 9% amid a worsening cost-of-living crisis, a question mark hangs over the anticipated summer boom for easyJet shares.
    Trade over 16,000 international shares from zero commission with us, the UK’s No.1 trading provider.* Learn more about trading shares with us, or open an account to get started today.
    *Based on revenue excluding FX (published financial statements, June 2020).
    Charles Archer | Financial Writer, London
    23 May 2022
  23. ArvinIG
    FOMC meeting minutes, a GDP revision and PCE inflation to guide the dollar price this week.

    Source: Bloomberg   Forex Inflation Personal consumption expenditures price index GDP Federal Open Market Committee Recession   FOMC meeting minutes
    Minutes from the last Federal Market Open Committee (FOMC) meeting on the 4th of May, are set for release on Wednesday (25 May) evening (GMT).
    Markets will be looking for further clues with regards to the future of monetary tightening in the world's largest economy.

    Source: CME Group Fedwatch Tool  
    The CME Group’s Fedwatch Tool currently suggests that a 50 basis point (bps) hike has a 92.3% probability at the 15 June meeting. The Fedwatch Tool goes on to suggest another 50 bps hike (87.6% probability) at July’s meeting as well.
    But while the Federal Reserve (Fed) has become progressively more hawkish at each meeting, the group's outlook towards inflation and growth will come under increased scrutiny.
    A more hawkish approach to monetary policy will find some friction against contraction in economic growth, whereby the first quarter produced negative growth of 1.4% year-on-year. The contraction in growth meets Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation still tracking above 8%. Negative growth and high inflation provide two component parts of the ‘stagflation’ conundrum. The third component part to ‘stagflation’ is labour, which at current levels (3.6% unemployment) holds off overuse of the word just yet. Stagflation is known to be a precursor to a recession.
    GDP and inflation prints this week as well
    Further to Wednesday’s release of the FOMC meeting minutes, markets will be looking to Thursday’s US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Friday’s Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Index data for near-term directional guidance.
    The preliminary GDP data is a revision of the advance GDP data released last month, which showed an economic contraction of 1.4%. The PCE Index data is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation and follows on from the recently released CPI data which showed inflation in the world’s largest economy at 8.1% annualised in April this year.
    The US dollar – technical view

    Source: ProRealTime  
    The dollar index is currently correcting from near-term highs. The rising wedge (shaded area), price blowoff (three steepening trendlines), and overbought signals were warnings that we could see a short-term correction of the longer term uptrend, which is now taking place.
    Traders respecting the longer term uptrend, will be looking for a bullish price reversal from the short-term correction underway for long entry into the dollar. A confluence of horizontal and trendline support is considered at around the 101.00 mark.
    Should we not get a bullish price reversal before this level, and instead see a price close below, we would then be looking for long entry on a bullish price reversal closer to the 99.20 support level.
    Shaun Murison | Senior Market Analyst, Johannesburg
    24 May 2022
  24. ArvinIG
    With the long term weakness in EUR/USD, Richard Snow from Daily FX picks up on the trend and is looking for a better price to enter another short trade around US interest rates.

    Welcome, let's take a look now at a Risk Event for the week starting Monday 25th July. As we go into that last full trading week of the month, we can catch up now with Richard Snow from DailyFX with a look ahead to that event next week. Rich, how are you doing? What's going on? What's on your horizon?
    Hi Jeremy.
    I'm looking at a short EUR/USD trade, particularly short term, something intraday or scalping, around the FOMC rate decision next week, Wednesday. The euro is still in a bit of trouble. Major risks to the region considering you have to look at the gas flows continuing between Nord Stream 1. Those are at lower levels than expected. We've also had widespread rejection after an EU proposal for member states to consume 15% less gas.
    That continues to be a dark cloud over the eurozone and the euro. We obviously had the resignation of Italy's prime minister Mario Draghi, triggering snap elections to be held in September. And then we had the ECB rate decision yesterday, which actually was a positive on the grand scheme of things. And we saw that 50-basis point surprise and the introduction of the ECB's anti-fragmentation tool in the bond market to go along with it.
    Looking at the US, a fairly different story. We've seen that markets are expecting a 75-basis point hike on Wednesday. I don't anticipate that that will see a surge in the dollar but will certainly remain supportive of the dollar. So, looking at the chart, I'm looking at that particular area of resistance, that $1.0280 level. We've seen a push towards that without breaking above.
    So I'd be looking at another test of that level in the lead up to the FOMC decision whereupon we can look to fade such a move. We've been seeing a daily range of around 100 pips so, if you are to see a rejection of that $1.0280, perhaps looking at entries from $1.0250, going short, looking at about 100 pips, setting a stop around about $1.03 and look to fade that move.
    There are multiple levels to the downside that you can look at. Longer term play, you'd be looking at parity, but as I mentioned, I'd be looking to to fade this one in a very short time frame going in to next week. Interesting. Thanks very much indeed, Rich. Looking there for a better price to get in to go short on the euro-dollar around the FOMC decision on Wednesday.
    Jeremy Naylor | Writer, London
    25 July 2022
  25. ArvinIG
    Roblox shares soared 7% yesterday as investors back its strong financial credentials, aged-up demographics, and future potential to be a trailblazer for the metaverse. And this could just be the start.

    Source: Bloomberg   Shares Roblox Metaverse Avatar Bloomberg L.P. Internet   The Roblox (NYSE: RBLX) share price is 178% higher than its March IPO price of $45. The company chose a rare direct listing, where no new shares are created, but instead current investors become able to sell their existing shares on the open market.
    On its first day of trading, the stock shot up 54% to $69.50, eventually rising to $100 by 4 June. After falling to $70 by 8 October, it then rose to a high of $135 by 19 November. As generic fears over the Omicron variant and potential interest rate rises rose, it dipped once again. But at $125 right now, it could skyrocket soon.
    Roblox share price: Q3 results
    In excellent Q3 results, revenue increased by a whopping 102% to $509.3 million compared to the same quarter in 2020. Net operating cash hit $181.2 million, while free cash flow increased 7% to $170.6 million.
    Meanwhile, bookings increased by 28% to $637.8 million, while average daily users rose 31% year -over-year to 47.3 million. And hours of engaged gameplay rose 28% year-over-year to 11.2 billion.
    CEO David Baszucki commented that ‘engagement is our north star.’ He further said ‘we are happy to report that the developer community earned over $130 million in the quarter and is on pace to earn well over $500 million this year.’ He highlighted that the company would ‘continue to invest in innovative technology to…build and create.’
    Unlike its competition, Roblox users can create their own in-universe games. Currently, developers get 26.9% of the proceeds generated by players, for example from the sale of custom outfits and avatars. These items are bought with the in-game currency, Robux`— and the most popular subscription for 1,000 Robux costs £8.99 per month. This gives a financial incentive to create ever better games and fuel organic user growth.
    CFO Michael Guthrie highlighted the company’s strong financial growth, ‘despite lapping Covid-impacted periods and back-to-school seasonality.’ Regarding Q4, he said ‘we appear to be having a great start to the last quarter of the year.’ And encouragingly, Morgan Stanley analyst Brian Nowak has put a $150 target on the stock.

    Source: Bloomberg The Roblox metaverse
    Depending on who you’re talking to, the metaverse is either the next evolutionary phase of the internet, or an overhyped, ill-defined virtual reality hypothesis. Regardless, it’s been latched on to by Facebook, which rebranded its corporate name to Meta in July. The core idea is that it’s a 3D internet that spans both the physical and virtual worlds. For example, instead of messaging online, people would meet up with their avatars in a virtual space, to do everything from banking, to shopping, to socialising.
    And Roblox’s avatar-based developer-focussed strategy gives it a huge head-start in this new space. It’s already partnered with Nike to develop its own platform called NikeLand. Shoemaker Vans and car manufacturer Hyundai are both using Roblox to advertise their products. In June, Warner Bros. created a Roblox-based rendition of the Washington Heights neighbourhood in New York that served as the setting for its musical ‘In the Heights.’ Players were able to explore the set and talk to characters in the film.
    Yesterday, Ralph Lauren launched its own Roblox holiday-themed experience, with a gender-neutral digital clothing collection to explore. Christina Wootton, vice president of global brand partnerships at Roblox, commented ‘anyone can try exclusive fashion items and even influence what this environment looks like based on their participation and daily voting results. This is the kind of innovation and co-creation that the Roblox platform and technology enable.’
    Moreover, because the game has a PEGI 7 rating, it’s suitable for younger players who could potentially play Roblox forever. But Keybanc analyst Tyler Parker believes that ‘aging up the platform remains a key opportunity that remains challenging’ as older users find different ways to spend their money. However, on its Investor Day on 16 November, the company demonstrated that the fastest-growing cohort on the platform is 17–24-year-olds, and that it’s also retaining more of its aging clientele.
    With an older user base with access to disposable income, and company partnerships eager to explore its metaverse potential, the Roblox share price might have much more potential than it appears at first glance. Of course, if the metaverse fails to materialise, the company could lose value fast.
    Go short and long with spread bets, CFDs and share dealing on 16,000+ shares with the UK’s No.1 platform.* Learn more about trading shares with us, or open an account to get started today.
    * Best trading platform as awarded at the ADVFN International Financial Awards 2021

    Charles Archer | Financial Writer, London
    10 December 2021

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