Caseynotes

While it's true markets can carry momentum it's just as true that they can turn on a dime as we've seen multiple times recently, it's also true they can be carried great distances very fast by sheer panic. But look at the Dow monthly chart below, that is not a bearish chart no matter which way you look at it. It's easy to see why top pickers would be getting edgy but you simply can't rely on technicals alone, each bear bar in the latest section was started by a Trump tweet called precisely at the highs. Once the new information was assimilated the markets momentum pushed price back up to the highs again each time, the upward momentum exists because of the continuing strong economic data being reported on the US economy, the data needs to change to bearish before the chart will. Reminder; one key metric to watch US GDP is released on Thursday.

Hi, in mt4 go to 'File' > 'open an account' and you should see IG's demo and Live data feeds, click on one and follow the instructions (must click yes box and agree receive news feeds to activate).

So we know via client sentiment as used as a contrarian indicator that retail traders can't be trusted to call the next market move, and as above we see that the media also can't be trusted but what about the Fed, surely they know what's going on - don't they? Well no actually, in Fed statements an increase of the citations of the words 'risk' and 'uncertainty' tend to precede a rise in the market while increased use of words like 'certain' usually preceded a fall. If even top of the field professionals can't see into the future you certainly shouldn't be trusting amateur gurus, just read the chart in front of you. The funny thing is that with minimal chart training everyone can see where to trade, it's just doing it that's the hard part, which is why so many are so easily mislead by the more vocal.

yes @TrendFollower, there are plenty of long term investors with IG and it's right they should take notice and plan well ahead for any eventuality but traders should be thinking differently and look to be responsive to changes in market conditions. As in my previous post the big indices always look a bit toppy and it's too easy to get in short too soon. Back in 2016 there was talk of impending recession for most of the year and many new traders blew their accounts continually shorting the market trying to 'catch the big one', the get rich quick trade. It was depressing to watch. Here's another interesting chart of S&P seasonal pattern of average return 1990-2018 suggesting uncertainty in the short term before resumption upward.

That's correct and they do influence people, in all the years I've been watching markets on a daily basis there has not been a week go by when someone hasn't called an upcoming recession, whenever the indices correct downward the calls come daily, not least on this forum. Indices often look a 'bit toppy', it's called 'the wall of worry', technical based traders not understanding the drivers and the nature of indices are forever calling major reversals and routinely get it wrong, traders need to block out 'the noise' and just follow the charts. Here's an interesting chart, volume of twitter pessimist sentiment spikes correlate with SPY lows.

We need CNBC to do another 'Markets in Turmoil' special, pretty much guarantees a rally 😂 see chart below

MT4 Learn to Trade Though there are many platforms to choose from learning to trade on mt4 stands out for a good number of important reasons. IG offers a multitude of platforms each with their own special features but essentially they all set out to do the same job. If you are just starting out you should not be looking to specialise but should first be seeking to learn the basic art of trading on a average market on a average time frame. Once you have learnt to use a platform picking up how to use any of the others is relatively simple and mt4 is good first choice. Built in trading journal. It usually takes a while before people learn that they need to be journaling their trades, all that time is wasted. And no, the account PnL is not enough, when you start out you will be trialing many different approaches, at some point you will realise you've come full circle, you'll stop to consider what you've learnt and you'll realise the answer is nothing because you have no record of what you've done and what worked when. With a journal you can review and compare different time periods and see without doubt what was working and by how much. MT4's built in journal starts recording your trades from day 1. Micro lot bet sizes. Demo is really only useful to learn the ins and outs of the platform, and maybe checkout the basic prospects of a new strategy, you will not learn to trade on the demo platform, you need to be risking real money, even if it's only fractions to begin with, start low with a view to build up as your skill and confidence grows rather than starting too high, panicking because of the risk and being forced to drop down, this crushes confidence. MT4 is the only IG platform where you are able to start at 10 pence per point (micro contracts). All styles of charts. Every conceivable chart type is available on mt4 (HA, Renko etc) allowing you to experiment and get a feel for them and find out early if they work for you or not, learning on a platform with only the basic chart types (line, bar and candle) will leave you wondering and looking backwards rather than forwards as you progress. Every type of indicator. The range of indicators available for free download is legendary, literally 10's of thousands. Same as for chart types, experiment to get a feel for what suits early on and develop from there. Easy learn auto trading with mt4 EAs. EAs were a main feature for mt4 right from the beginning. Trading robots are popular and mt4 has special features to make the use of Bots easy to learn and, as for indicators, there are many already written you can download plus there is lots of tuition on how to write one yourself. Lots of help and support network via the mql5 community. The resource pages on mql5.com for mt4/5 are huge and there is also a very large and active members forum, most any question you might have is likely to have been already answered, search and see, if an answer is not found just ask the community. MT4 may well not be the platform you end up with once you have learnt the actual basics of trading, it has it's faults like any platform, doesn't cover stocks for example, but it probably should be the one to start out on to learn how to trade.

That reminds me I wrote something about learning on mt4 and forgot to post it, let me find it.

lol, he knew he'd dropped a clanger, even joked about it later. If he's not careful he'll get the same treatment as Elon Musk and be forced to have a minder vet all his tweets, which would be a shame really 😂

@nit2wynit, sorry to hear you hit the limit but you're not the first and won't be the last to blow your first live account. Plenty of lessons learnt I'm sure and time to start afresh. imho your plan to fast hit a slow market was ambitious and I'm not convinced the platform was the problem, I've said before that the demo platform is the same as live and that's basically true for normal markets but the demo won't reproduce a laggy market, it can't, and I suspect other broker's live platforms will also have problems finding prices on illiquid stocks. You are right that a small account reduces options but the key is to learn the basics of trading first before trying to specialise. Start from the bottom and learn the basics, the basics are finding entry points and targets on an average market on an average time frame and keep practicing and adjusting til you get it right, and I would do this on a simple platform that allowed very low bet sizes rather than a demo account. So that would be something like trading the ftse on a 1 - 4 hour chart using 10 pence per point on the mt4 platform. So you're risking real money, enough to hurt your pride but not your account. That should be where everyone starts but most never do, they always seem to start at the top and work their way down before starting over again from the bottom. Anyway, we all look forward to round 2, best of luck.

so that you can buy these great new very cheap cars from China, but they look vaguely familiar for some reason 🙄

watch out, Trump just responded and has upped the stakes, if you have an open indices position you might want to think about looking to the weekend markets for a hedge.

We all know what the book says about a yield curve inversion, that a recession will follow 1 - 2 years after and that between the inversion will reverse back, bonds will be sold while stocks enjoy a brief rally before finally rolling over into a recessionary bear market, after all it's happened 7 times before so must be again right. Well not necessarily, previously the inversions have been deep and lasted several months, that hasn't happened yet. Also fore warned is fore armed and we already know the problem is this time, it's Trump trying to get China to play by the rules, oh and debt. The thing is that the bond market has changed radically in the last decade and longer, look at the long term chart of the 10 year bond yield below, falling steadily since the 1980's, with the 10 year being so low a 2/10 year yield inversion is much more likely under far less economic provocation. But what about the debt then, well it's clear Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) is becoming a 'thing' whether people call it or not. The Japanese have been doing something like it for years except going the long way round and printing money to buy bonds instead of just printing money. MMT says that so long as you don't borrow from outside and you keep inflation under control you can print the amount of money you need (see the MMT thread), Japan have been doing it for decades, the UK, US and EU started latter but doing it they are, the problem for the EU is that they have also been borrowing widely from outside. Central bank bond buying has distorted the bond market making yield inversions more likely, but less likely of an automatic recession to follow. Central banks will continue to print money anyway, the key is to control inflation, owing yourself money can be dealt with, it's owing other people money that's the problem. How will it all actually pan out, who knows, that's not a trader's concern, an investor might take a different view but they still won't know til it happens whatever 'it' is. Chart 1: Yield dipping below the red line is inversion, the shaded columns are the recession periods that followed. Chart 2: The steady decline of the 10 year bond yield since the 1980's. Chart 3: The 2 year bond yield retreating from recent highs.

Hi, yes, as well as the 2, 5 and 10 year, IG call it Treasury Bond in the Bonds list, see pic below.

Gold set up to break lower, S&P set up to break higher, just need the catalyst, Fed chair Powell's speech at Jackson Hole today at 3pm. Daily charts;

Hi, you just need to reduce down the chart, tab top right corner, see pic below.

🙂 While very nice of you to be thanking Herald John I hope you're not forgetting who it was who remembered the post and found it amongst the 36,000 others? Besides, I'm desperate for one more like 😢

Starting the day having moved back up to resistance again, both are above the pivot and just below R1, as ever may see an initial check of support before an attempt to break out higher. Lots of Fed speak throughout today so could get jumpy.

This market is a tricky one, it has one foot in both the western and Asian camps, clearly it is influenced by the China markets which are suffering due to the trade war, all the econ data out of China is poor and continuing to drift down. The HK market is also clearly influenced by the western indices and is trying to maintain the same shape and structure as them. The western camp seems dominant at the moment so I would look to them for the lead in the future direction, if Dow can jump the current resistance I would expect the HK to do the same. Daily chart;

Hi, you are probably on the new platform, you can select between the two from your 'My IG' page and use the drop down box on the 'open platform' tab (see pic below) Check the other solutions on the help page and see this thread linked below for other possible solutions.

Indices just waiting at this hurdle and looking for any excuse to jump, have tried going backwards several times but just not interested. Bonds drifting down is bad news for the recession obsessionists, historically touch and go's don't count, the yields need to go deep into inversion and stay there for several months for it to count as a precursor to a recession. Long term these markets are still close to their highs.

The board remains risk neutral leaning to risk on with Bonds continuing to drift down, Indices, USD and Oil up, Gold down. Lots of Fed speak today and the markets are keen for any kind of news so could get jumpy, JH symposium continues today and into Saturday and UK bank holiday Monday.

Hi, yeah I think you need to allow third party cookies as well IG's as the charts use data from another company. see this post pictured below.

Bonds are having quite a sizable down day so far, Indices and Oil up, USD flat.