Jump to content

NDX


Recommended Posts

fake bottoming pattern...  7 green candles in a row till slightly above previous high, with low volume... then sudden reversal...  should have been clear then that something has changed...  (like some large trader switching to whipsawing suckers...) and that this was likely not going anywhere anymore today...:

1130878540_USTech100Cash(1)_20200923_16_36.thumb.png.1ea6164a6f96ed22b31f394d4b176e78.png

 

 

 

 

Link to comment

short with (dangerously) tight stop - if stop not hit before, review around 11100.  betting on NDX being pulled down a bit by expected retracement of Dax overnight move, plus upper end of recent range should provide some resistance.  (positioned on global equity indices breakout with other trades so this bet on the range holding should have at least some hedging quality (ultra-)short-term - although with the tight stop it's better described as a pretty high-loss-probability gamble...)

 

711251236_USTech100_20200928_00_47.thumb.png.c8576229aa0bc5c41b4b32555eac6f04.png

Link to comment
2 hours ago, HMB said:

short with (dangerously) tight stop - if stop not hit before, review around 11100.  betting on NDX being pulled down a bit by expected retracement of Dax overnight move, plus upper end of recent range should provide some resistance.  (positioned on global equity indices breakout with other trades so this bet on the range holding should have at least some hedging quality (ultra-)short-term - although with the tight stop it's better described as a pretty high-loss-probability gamble...)

 

711251236_USTech100_20200928_00_47.thumb.png.c8576229aa0bc5c41b4b32555eac6f04.png

 

Well, that looks reasonable.  

It's pure gamble though.  Some would argue that shorting the U.S. indices is inherently dumb because over time they only ever go up.  Even this year, 'the worst EVAR since the Great Depression', they 'only' went down for a few weeks and despite the enormous downward move fully recovered within a few months.  People with money in S&P 500 ETFs are laughing all the way to the bank compared to retail traders.

Also you've got way too much cruft on your charts.  Technical 'analysts' smear their charts with poo to make themselves look clever.  But in reality it's all just useless cr@p.  For example you don't need MFI and volume, because MFI is just volume-weighted RSI.

Edited by dmedin
Link to comment

thanks dmedin

 

anyone knows what happened here...:

NDX_other_reportable.png.edae6a828cebac08fbb01b2f3aae4b10.png

?

 

if I'm not completely mistaken, this is a net short of almost 43b USD notional - probably largest ever, solely in a category that usually doesn't seem to matter at all (corporate treasuries, central banks, small banks...) (aggregate hedge funds and insdt. asset managers both long...)

http://quiktweet.com/105059

is Softbank in that category..?

 

 

Edited by HMB
Link to comment

...a lot of indecisiveness around 11350 yesterday (which also had not held pre-market)... then strong up candle (15 min) into the cash close...  a bit back into ETFs after recent outflows..?...  doesn't look like the overnight rise can be considered as particularly sustainable IMHO..  Dax and NKY futures also off the highs...  expecting NDX (future) to approach 11350 soon again..:

 

373903169_USTech100_20200929_02_29.thumb.png.c0a351df12cf9bbcd1d83f6c50f518d8.png   

Edited by HMB
Link to comment
42 minutes ago, HMB said:

...a lot of indecisiveness around 11350 yesterday (which also had not held pre-market)... then strong up candle (15 min) into the cash close...  a bit back into ETFs after recent outflows..?...  doesn't look like the overnight rise can be considered as particularly sustainable IMHO..  Dax and NKY futures also off the highs...  expecting NDX (future) to approach 11350 soon again..:

 

373903169_USTech100_20200929_02_29.thumb.png.c0a351df12cf9bbcd1d83f6c50f518d8.png   

closed at 11370.5

Link to comment
19 hours ago, HMB said:

thanks dmedin

 

anyone knows what happened here...:

NDX_other_reportable.png.edae6a828cebac08fbb01b2f3aae4b10.png

?

 

if I'm not completely mistaken, this is a net short of almost 43b USD notional - probably largest ever, solely in a category that usually doesn't seem to matter at all (corporate treasuries, central banks, small banks...) (aggregate hedge funds and insdt. asset managers both long...)

http://quiktweet.com/105059

is Softbank in that category..?

 

 

 

 

ETFs catching up to the correction, possibly.

This is all building up for a huge rally at the end of the year.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
1 minute ago, dmedin said:

ETFs catching up to the correction, possibly.

could be - I would be a bit surprised though, because if ETFs were considered in this category ("Other Reportable"), I would have expected larger numbers earlier as well (below chart with longer history)

NDX_other_reportable_full.thumb.png.5835611b252b632775f6ae8b0c0ad6b2.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
1 minute ago, dmedin said:

Yes, not too sure about that either.  It's a good find.   Haven't seen anything like it before.

The volume at the top was absolutely gigantic, dwarfing even the volumes at the March/April bottom

NujRglPv

...yes, I looked elsewhere at the COT history since end 1999 - nothing even close to that (neither if you include the standard futures, not only the E-minis).  in the older CFTC classification (commercial vs. non-commercial) you see the non-commercial (i.e. speculative) positioning is the 2nd most net short ever - zerohedge has been reporting about that for some time

...good point on the volume! is that from the exchange?  on IG spreadbetting it looks different

at that time were the rumors about dealers  (un-)hedging options from Softbank and retail traders caused the action...  which OCC data couldn't confirm (see post a while ago) - because dealers' aggregate net volume wasn't that large - it was all in the "Customer" category.

...trying to make sense of these two developments together...  the Other Reportable position is as of 22nd and was built up over four weeks...  so the initial trades could have contributed to the selloff - maybe later the desks in charge of it improved the execution and it slowed down...

still struggling what that could mean for the near future...  tend to agree with your point, that unwind of that position would be a nice way to engineer a rally...  would be quite expensive, though, unless the silently within the boundaries of ineffective laws colluding Wall Street guys get the market to drop first (by triggering all kinds of signals for retail traders and Algos to jump on - think I've heard the 50-day MA is quite popular these days...,  (and Morgan Stanley sees a test of the 200 day MA as possible if I remember correctly...)

...

still more questions than "answers" I mean hypotheses..

 

 

Link to comment

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • image.png

  • Posts

    • What is Foreign Exchange? Foreign exchange (Forex or FX) is the conversion of one currency into another at a specific rate known as the foreign exchange rate. The conversion rates for almost all currencies are constantly floating as they are driven by the market forces of supply and demand. The most traded currencies in the world are the United States dollar, Euro, Japanese yen, British pound, and Australian dollar. The US dollar remains the key currency, accounting for more than 87% of total daily value traded.Factors that Affect Foreign Exchange Rates Many factors can potentially influence the market forces behind foreign exchange rates. The factors include various economic, political, and even psychological conditions. The economic factors include a government’s economic policies, trade balances, inflation, and economic growth outlook. Political conditions also exert a significant impact on the forex rate, as events such as political instability and political conflicts may negatively affect the strength of a currency. The psychology of forex market participants can also influence exchange rates. The Foreign Exchange Market The foreign exchange market is a decentralized and over-the-counter market where all currency exchange trades occur. It is the largest (in terms of trading volume) and the most liquid market in the world. On average, the daily volume of transactions on the forex market totals $5.1 trillion, according to the Bank of International Settlements’ Triennial Central Bank Survey (2016). The forex market major trading centers are located in major financial hubs around the world, including New York, London, Frankfurt, Tokyo, Hong Kong, and Sydney. Due to this reason, foreign exchange transactions are executed 24 hours, five days a week (except weekends). Despite the decentralized nature of forex markets, the exchange rates offered in the market are the same among its participants, as arbitrage opportunities can arise otherwise. The foreign exchange market is probably one of the most accessible financial markets. Market participants range from tourists and amateur traders to large financial institutions (including central banks) and multinational corporations. Also, the forex market does not only involve a simple conversion of one currency into another. Many large transactions in the market involve the application of a wide variety of financial instruments, including forwards, swaps, options, etc. Foreign currency exchange (forex) A foreign currency exchange rate is a price that represents how much it costs to buy the currency of one country using the currency of another country. Currency traders buy and sell currencies through forex transactions based on how they expect currency exchange rates will fluctuate. When the value of one currency rises relative to another, traders will earn profits if they purchased the appreciating currency, or suffer losses if they sold the appreciating currency.  
    • Totally agree, the growth of Bitget Wallet will have a positive impact on $BWB. The potential for both seems exciting. Good luck to you too, and hopefully everyone can benefit from these earning opportunities.
    • Sounds like Mystiko Network is making some serious waves in the interoperability space. Seamless compatibility across multiple blockchains is a game changer, especially with the ZK SDK for secure and private dApps. Big backing from Samsung and Coinlist adds credibility too. I will keep an eye on that Bitget listing, it could be a major boost for $XZK
×
×
  • Create New...
us