Indices

[Caseynotes]

Dow still lingering about the recent low 26100 and Dax back in tracking mode. So looking for either a retest of 26100 or a break of the daily pivot 26161 and a push higher with Dax to follow.

[RichardSmith]

Indices will only go down this year from here IMHO

[Caseynotes]

Maybe @RichardSmith,  but currently the Nasdaq is zeroing in on it's all time high while 80% of IG clients are short.

[Bell]

Got a feeling you are right.

Perfect play for short squeeze to move market higher.

May have slight pullback first then breakout. Nice commentary casey.

[Caseynotes]

Thank you @Bell, I try to keep it real and not worry to much about bias, if I see price charging up a chart I'll expect it to continue til it stops, I'm sure the chart will tell me when.

Though I don't trade large time frame charts the rationale should be the same. If price is going up look for an opportunity to get long, try to stay in for as long as possible, expect continuation even when it approaches a boundary, but cross your fingers, tighten your stop and be ready to bail just in case.

I do know some traders who make a living picking tops and bottoms but none of them has less than 10 years experience. The worst thing to do is to allow yourself to be bias lead, you can always find something on a chart to add weight to a hunch no matter how preposterous it might be, which is why I tend to keep away from the media pundits, they can't go on tv and just say "I don't know".

[Caseynotes]

The H4 charts starting to look a little raggity but hanging on to the bull flags. The Dow hourly is on a up leg so looking for R1 at 26241, looking downward some support likely at the daily pivot around 26150 otherwise it's back down to 26061.

On the calendar the Cny trade bal (anytime today ) could cause a stir, EU Indy Prod could cause an upset at 10 am as could US consumer sentiment at 3 pm.

 

[Caseynotes]

After a 30 min battle at 26188 Dow storms up to 26241 in a single 5 min bar. Important level this, mentioned many times before in above posts, if price can break this level R2 at 26317 is the next target.

[Caseynotes]

R2 caught and holding, would expect to rest awhile here to reload the order book and see what the US market open has in store. R3 is at 26400. 

[phillo]

OPEX this coming week - ATH coming  

[Caseynotes]

Interesting shortened week ahead, the weekly Dow matches the S&P and once again staring at the all time highs.

On the H4s China taking a dive while the other 3 are up against recent highs. At the European open Dax H1 is currently on a search for support leg down and waiting for the London open.

 

Edited April 15, 2019 by Caseynotes

[Caseynotes]

[Caseynotes]

Dax and Dow out of step this morning, Dow taking a close look at the daily resistance level while Dax hovers over support.

[Caseynotes]

Markets were reluctant to push forward yesterday so lets see how today unfolds. The three are still running along resistance though this time the Shanghai is on an upswing, wonder if that will make a difference. Dax is chaffing to go higher but watch out for the Ger econ sentiment data release at 10 am.

Dow looks ready to take on the weekly chart resistance level at 26496 (red) again today having failed at the attempt yesterday while the S&P has it's eyes fixed on that all time high (purple).

Good read in John Kicklighter's blog today, draws attention to the China GDP data release 3 am tomorrow plus some market insight in light of Brexit developments.

[Caseynotes]

Not much movement in the indices, little on the calendar and public holidays coming up, with all time highs just over head for Dow and S&P there will need to be something to tilt the balance. China put in a good GDP figure so the theme of global slowdown has lost some impetus but not sure that will be enough to cause any eye opening movement before the Easter break.

[Caseynotes]

Philadelphia semiconductor index takes off, sign for the Nasdaq ahead?

[Caseynotes]

US indices still hanging around the highs with nowhere else to go. Dax has the Ger PMIs to look forward to at 8:30 am and EU combined at 9:00. US retail sales at 1:30 pm. US Flash PMIs at 2:45 pm could be interesting.

Dax and Ftse have dropped under the daily pivot and currently revisiting support on the M15 charts, wait and see if these levels hold, may see some unwinding of positions today before the Easter break.

[Caseynotes]

BoA fund manager survey on global economy turning up;

[Caseynotes]

AND 777 IS THE NUMBER OF ...  companies reporting earnings this coming week and some very big tech names amongst them. This is significant as the US indices are waiting at the boundary for either a push forward or a pull down and big tech have been the main drivers for some time now.

Bear in mind also the US market opens tomorrow and that the following week also has a large number corporate earnings releases. See the calendar below.

[Caseynotes]

Looking at the weekly charts and the 4 month bull run from Dec 23rd continues for the major indices. As mentioned in the last post US indices are approaching the boundary high and will be looking for a push which may come from the big tech earnings data. This week should indicate which way for the major US tech companies with ebay, amazon, facebook, intel and microsoft plus many others all due to report this week.

 

 

[Caseynotes]

For the longer view see one and two posts above, for today's morning session Dow and Dax on a leg up with Dow just checking at PP and targeting R1 around 26620. Dax first target is 12277 while Ftse needs to clear resistance at 7495 before progression.

[Caseynotes]

Dow unable to break the pivot but not really pushing lower either, Dax pushed further down to test S2 where it's currently stalled.

Into the afternoon and US open and long term still bullish so looking for support confirmation and on to seek resistance.

[RichardSmith]

I'm not hood at posting graphs, btw @Caseynotes where do you get these pics from. It doesn't look like IG Web interface.

On the other hand, with DAX failing to get above weekly 100 MA and potential head and shoulders forming on a daily chart I see it going downwards this week to about 11845 mark. EUR consumers don't look confident either. Any thoughts?

[phillo]

DAX  I guess we all have that line

[Caseynotes]

2 hours ago, RichardSmith said:

On the other hand, with DAX failing to get above weekly 100 MA and potential head and shoulders forming on a daily chart I see it going downwards this week to about 11845 mark. EUR consumers don't look confident either. Any thoughts?

Certainly maybe Richard, there should be support around that level if Dax does reverse but I would myself expect continuation upward if the US indices break through to the upside though.

Many like to pick and choose, mix and match, indicators, patterns and time frames to suit our bias, you see such posted all the time, but going down that road leads to madness because we will always be able to find many combos that will support whatever bias we have.

Looking at the weekly 100 MA, price last week put in a powerful bull bar right to it and with only one day trading this week can't really say it's failed there yet. I can't really see a forming H&S pattern on the daily (see how to post a chart below), and I wouldn't worry about EU consumers as all the Dax companies are big multi-nationals, so I suspect Dax will follow the US indices upward if they break, riding on the back of increasing risk-on sentiment.

My charts are MT4 charts, to post IG charts click on the 3 dots (options) tab then 'export chart' and a copy of the on-screen chart will be placed in your download folder (without any personal info).  

 

[Caseynotes]

S&P closing in on the 'All Time High', still a couple of hours to go before the US market close, bears seem to be hibernating (hiding), difficult to see how this level will remain standing.

[Caseynotes]

Not sure which screen Kyle was looking at on the APAC brief but Dow not quite at the ATH. Worryingly this is usually about the time Trump chooses to ratchet up the trade war threats though it might be different this time, both sides making noises the final deal is near.

Dow currently bouncing up off the daily pivot looking to target R1 at 26750.

Dax has just tested S1 and heading back up to the pivot at 12231 with R1 beyond that at 12282. 

As ever we may see some initial jockeying on market open but the overall trend remains bullish.

[Caseynotes]

Dow slow away having insisted on another test of the pivot while Dax was happily steering for R1 when got a nasty shock from the poor ifo business climate data at 9 am. Looks to be getting back into it's stride again now though. 

[Caseynotes]

Dax makes for R3 while S&P sets up for an assault on the summit;

[Caseynotes]

Dow failed at 26700 and once again down to retest the pivot on the US open, Dax pulls back down to test R1, see if they hold.

[Caseynotes]

So, at end of day Dax found support at R1 while Dow broke down to find support at S1 and in the meantime USD finally broke out of long term consolidation;