Indices

[Bell]

Hi @Foxy

I think we may take out the 50 dma to suck people in on the long side.

The technical will push a bounce.

Then some piece of news will draft this lower.

I think stock entry prices and exits will be easier than indices.

Get the direction right big profits will be on though. .. the moves should really trend.

[phillo]

Saw a great tweet   - " Trump can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent"

[phillo]

review and forward look of the US markets   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HfVusKsaoKI

[Caseynotes]

EU PMI data drifting in throughout the morning today and US manu PMI at 3pm.

A quick explanation of the histo/oscillator indicator on the S&P chart, the histo red and green bars is a smoothed RSI above/below 50 and the blue and yellow lines are a fast and slow MA of RSI. Signals are the blue crossing the yellow or blue bouncing off the yellow, also as per normal RSI a good divergence indicator.

[Caseynotes]

Some recovery yesterday but price is looking for sentiment rather than a level and the next meeting between the main trade war combatants is not til the G20 at the end of June.

S&P key level support below at 2721, currently 2750.

On the calendar this week is the ECB rate decision Thursday and NFP this Friday.

"Good trading is built around “if/then” statements. Bad trading is built around “I think” statements. What you think simply does not matter. The market doesn’t care." - Tom Canfield

[Caseynotes]

The Fed steps in to help the markets signalling the Fed was ready to cut rates if warranted sends all the indices back up.

US non-manu PMI today at 3pm, forecast is 55.6. 

ADP nfp data today at 1:15 could hint to Friday's number.

The S&P leaves key support intact (2721) and looks ahead to resistance at 2840, currently at 2800.

[phillo]

something to remember going forward ................

[Caseynotes]

Indices kick down on the ADP nfp employment data coming in at 27k instead of the 275k forecast, main NFP report comes in on Friday.

[Caseynotes]

ECB rate decision and mon pol statement at 12:45am and Draghi presser at 1:30pm today.

Dow and Dax heading into resistance with Ftse not far behind, seem to have shrugged off the very low ADP nfp number yesterday that's often a pointer to the big NFP data release tomorrow. Interesting S&P weekly chart with 2 trading days to go.

[Caseynotes]

NFP day today and it will be a bit nervy following Wednesday's disastrous ADP nfp coming in at 27k instead of the expected 275k, 180k is forecast for today. Average earnings and the % rate are also important so things could get very bouncy from 1:30 on.

Another blue day all round yesterday so expecting continuation until it's not, Dax having problems sneaking back into the channel and the ECB didn't help, Dow has previous highs resistance just overhead and Ftse needs to try to avoid a third point touch to confirm a downtrend trendline.

Let the games commence.

 

[Caseynotes]

Interesting one this, NFP was a big miss as the Wed ADP number predicted but the thing is the markets have already priced in the increased chance of rate cuts in the near future so the affect of the NFP today is looking somewhat subdued. There was talk that a big number could cause a hit on the market because it might reduce the chances of rate cuts.

Dax and Dow M30 charts;

 

[Caseynotes]

Fren, Swiss and Ger bank holiday today. UK GDP and Manu Prod data at 9:30. Dax and Ftse gapping up Sunday, closed the gap this morning and looking for continuation today.

Coming up latter today I'll be showing you why you've been trading the Dow all wrong 🙂

 

[Guest Politica]

news today is

• By 5pm today we will have the full list of candidates to be the UK's next Prime Minister
• Under the new rules, each candidate requires 8 MP supporters
• Round 1 of voting by MPs will then take place this Thursday, 13 June, 10am-12noon. Result expected 1pm.

[Caseynotes]

23 minutes ago, Guest Politica said:

news today is

• By 5pm today we will have the full list of candidates to be the UK's next Prime Minister
• Under the new rules, each candidate requires 8 MP supporters
• Round 1 of voting by MPs will then take place this Thursday, 13 June, 10am-12noon. Result expected 1pm.

Next PM odds from William Hill (in their popular markets section);

[Caseynotes]

"Coming up latter today I'll be showing you why you've been trading the Dow all wrong 🙂"

Profiting After the Market Closes

Since 1993, all of the S.& P. 500’s gains have occurred outside regular trading hours, which run from 9:30 a.m. to 4 p.m. Eastern time. 

Take a look at this chart from Bespoke as mentioned in the NYT article linked below.

SPY Returns: Owning outside vs. inside of regular trading hours ('93-present).

Since 1993, if you bought SPY on open and sold on close each day, return would be a negative 5.2%, if you did the opposite & bought on close and sold on open next day, return would be plus 568%  (meaning that ALL performance came in after-hours trading) Source: @bespokeinvest.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/02/your-money/stock-market-after-hours-trading.html

“We can show that the gap exists,” said Huseyin Gulen, a finance professor at Purdue University who has written about the issue. “But at this point we don’t know exactly why.”

"Buying and holding the overall market — using an E.T.F. like the SPY, or a traditional index mutual fund, or a very diversified portfolio of stocks — has been an extremely profitable strategy if you stuck to it for the last 25 years. On the other hand, buying and selling during the day has generally been a money-losing strategy — one that would have been far more painful if you had traded frequently, incurring steep costs, which would have compounded your losses."

 

 

[dmedin]

Isn't the best strategy just to 'buy and hold' and reinvest your dividends over a long period?

[Caseynotes]

5 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Isn't the best strategy just to 'buy and hold' and reinvest your dividends over a long period?

Depends on what you mean by 'long term', it's a good strategy but bear markets do come along occasionally (see pic below).

[dmedin]

If you had been lucky enough to put £10,000 into the SPY in 1993 and reinvest the dividends you'd probably have a few million by now!

[WallStFoxy]

1 hour ago, dmedin said:

Isn't the best strategy just to 'buy and hold' and reinvest your dividends over a long period?

@dmedin

You are close but you still need to avoid this:

 

[Bell]

you need to short this - without getting stopped out during bear market rally

[dmedin]

I was being ****'s advocate, the opportunities from being able to go long and short are obviously impressive. 

[Caseynotes]

All 4 indices will be looking to top Sunday's high today having not managed it on a slow day yesterday, failing that probably due a pullback. If resistance can't be beat price always has to look for support, and visa-versa. 

Trump complaining the Fed didn't listen to him re- not raising rates, chances of a rate cut in July now up over 80%. He is right, the Fed never understood his gaming of the Chinese by using market tops as timing for turning the screw tighter. As we are closing in on the highs again and the G20 at the end of the month will he do it a 4th time?

[Caseynotes]

Another day of indecision for Dow, not able to push on but not pulling back yet either. Times like these usually bring out the doomsters to tell us Armageddon is coming and who knows, one day they might actually be right, but I wouldn't bet on it.

You hear lots of talk about national debt and the abandonment of the gold standard and the Bretton Woods agreement etc but they are all forgetting the list of rules drawn up in the 1930's that still hold true to this day, especially Rule 11 (see below). 

[Caseynotes]

Looking like a day of searching for support, not much on the calendar, EU indy prod m/m at 10am expected to be -0.4 might rock the Dax.

Dow will be trying to hold at S2 25878 while resistance is up at 26087.

Dax trying to hold above 12065 and has resistance overhead at 12133.

[Caseynotes]

Nice site;

https://www.teletrader.com/markets/overview

[Caseynotes]

Interesting daily candle on the S&P heading into the US market open;

[Caseynotes]

 

[Caseynotes]

Strange week really for the indices. just loitering around so far, not willing to push on but not wanting to pull back either.

Asia markets down overnight while Europe and American markets up slightly. On the calendar today is US retail sales at 1:30 and US consumer sentiment at 3pm.

FOMC next week with a surveyed 20% chance of a rate cut while the end of July FOMC meet is 80% (FOMC meet 8 times a year) and in between is the G20 at the end of this month so plenty of market moving events just round the corner 🙂

 

[Caseynotes]

Overview, haven't quite got this dashboard sorted yet, seems to be a delay on the US numbers;

[FFS_Daytrader]

20 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

Overview, haven't quite got this dashboard sorted yet, seems to be a delay on the US numbers;

What dashboard are you using as it looks good so far.

Can you explain the setup if possible; thanks.