Indices

[Caseynotes]

Interesting report from DailyFX yesterday (relates to the above post).

"THE STARS HAVE ALIGNED FOR A STOCK MARKET BREAKOUT IF EARNINGS CAN IMPRESS"

"The recent US-China trade war developments have ushered in a calm atmosphere for the three major US indices, as volatility slips to notable lows – in a month where it is historically highest. That calm, however, has laid the groundwork for a potential break higher in the week ahead as market participants are allowed to shift their focus to earnings season."

https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2019/10/18/The-Stars-Have-Aligned-for-a-Stock-Market-Breakout-if-Earnings-Can-Impress.html?QPID=30472&CHID=9

Also good to see someone using implied volatility to give real-time support and resistance levels as determined by actual trades placed in the futures market.

 

[Caseynotes]

Dax trying to hang onto the monthly chart resistance level, Dow keeps the all time high in sight but only durable goods on the calendar later in the week so needs a push from some trade war news. Ftse distracted by the wild cable swings while ASX contemplates the continuing iron ore down trend.

Daily charts;

[Caseynotes]

Dow trying to push up from near term support around 26730 and near term resistance ahead at 27123.

Dax has cleared key resistance at 12660 and looking to break Thursday's high 12817.

Brexit vote today at 7pm should excite Ftse and gbp and ASX attempting to catch up after falling back on poor China data.

[dmedin]

We've got a bounce off the Fib, Wall Street looks bullish.  Boeing rebounding yet again - it's just too **** big to fail.  Never mind several hundred people dead because of the company's negligence. 

My stop is below 23.6% and my limit is at 27,403.

[dmedin]

Well, it already looks like I'm about to lose my money.

Just goes to show that TA is garbage and you might as well toss a fking coin. 

Edited October 22, 2019 by dmedin

[Caseynotes]

Boeing’s Head of Commercial Aerospace Steps Down as Fallout Grows on 737 MAX Jet

Updated Oct. 22, 2019 at 4:35 p.m. ET

https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/boeings-head-of-commercial-aerospace-is-out-jet-fallout-grows-51571775190?mod=mw_quote_news

[Caseynotes]

Dow dips below near term support overnight. Big earnings day with Boeing and Cat reporting pre US market and Microsoft reporting after close. Brexit stalemate continues with a general election now on the agenda while Dax sits on the monthly chart resistance level. 

Earnings likely to be the driver today.

Daily charts;

 

[Caseynotes]

Dax, Ftse and ASX had a strong day yesterday, Ftse and Dax testing near term resistance. Dow started badly with some weak earnings figures yesterday pre-market open but recovered well. Markets will be watching the EU and US Flash (early release) PMIs today, the consensus is for improvement after a series of recent monthly misses.

[Caseynotes]

ooops, that's the Dax H1 chart in amongst the dailies.

[Caseynotes]

Dax determined to push on while mixed earnings releases meant another step sideways for Dow, there has been a trickle of positive trade dispute news through the week but not enough to push the Dow. Ftse gaining as GBPUSD turns down and ASX nearing key resistance.

[Caseynotes]

Emerging Markets looking to breakout of downtrend.

 

[Caseynotes]

S&P tagged it's all time high today, very bullish especially on a Friday, Oil up, Gold balking and Bund down.

Also see post above emerging markets (a leading indicator) breaking higher.

[Caseynotes]

Dow and S&P still looking at the highs, Dax continues to push upward while ASX stalls at resistance and Ftse waiting for some kind of brexit resolution. This week could decide it either up or down with up coming US GDP, FOMC and NFP as well as Apple and FB earnings.

[dmedin]

S&P 500 record high. https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks/sp-500-hits-record-high-at-open-idUSKBN1X715I

[Caseynotes]

1 hour ago, dmedin said:

S&P 500 record high. https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks/sp-500-hits-record-high-at-open-idUSKBN1X715I

Yes, and a very strong push through as well, started before the US open and carried on after.

Daily and H1 chart;

[Caseynotes]

Strong day yesterday, S&P breaking the ATH, Dow not far behind and emerging markets continue the breakout of the down trend.

https://www.topdowncharts.com/single-post/2019/10/29/Global-Equities-The-New-Bull-Market

"Bottom line: based on 3 different breadth indicators for global equities, we have seen a clear and classic picture of a new cyclical bull market getting underway."

[dmedin]

We should be looking for the ATHs to get tested as support now?

[Caseynotes]

1 hour ago, dmedin said:

We should be looking for the ATHs to get tested as support now?

There was a clear and strong push through the S&P ATH, only strong players can cause that with constant buying of the highs shows they are confident. They will likely defend their stops though where those stops might be is difficult to know as they could well be quite large. 

The expectancy is for a rate cut tomorrow so likely to be caution until confirmed as run away S&P could change the FOMC's mind. Today's US open should be interesting.

[Caseynotes]

S&P 500 hits record high on strong earnings season

Daniel Strauss

 Oct. 28, 2019, 11:35 AM

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/sp-500-stock-market-hits-record-high-strong-earnings-season-2019-10-1028635977

[Caseynotes]

[dmedin]

58 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

 

 

As a 'best seller' he must surely have been 'cashing in' with his books and his talks.

[Caseynotes]

1 hour ago, dmedin said:

 

 

As a 'best seller' he must surely have been 'cashing in' with his books and his talks.

yes, and no end of customers. S&P passes through the ATH (again) so IG clients move evermore into shorts, now at 78% short.

The market goes up the crowd goes short, you can see why a contrarian view is so popular.

 

[dmedin]

20 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

The market goes up the crowd goes short, you can see why a contrarian view is so popular.

Yes.👍

[Caseynotes]

Not surprising a pause day for US indices yesterday, Dax followed suit while Ftse and ASX pulled back. Bund tries to bounce off support again and OIL and Gold little change.

[Caseynotes]

Good earnings results from Apple and Facebook plus the expected rate cut push the S&P higher, Dax and Dow reach resistance. Ftse unable to push through near term resistance and ASX not liking the cancellation of the Chile summit where a US/Chine trade deal was expected to be signed, plus news China production has fallen to it's lowest level for 3 and a half years.

Euro Stoxx600 breaking out of it's long term down trend.

(note chart order change around)

 

 

 

 

Edited October 31, 2019 by Caseynotes

[Caseynotes]

On 29/10/2019 at 14:26, Caseynotes said:

yes, and no end of customers. S&P passes through the ATH (again) so IG clients move evermore into shorts, now at 78% short.

The market goes up the crowd goes short, you can see why a contrarian view is so popular.

 

And yes, retail have done it again, the S&P breaks out into new highs so more retail traders have gone short.

78% yesterday afternoon, now at 80%.

Er, sell the highs right? no, not if there are continuous new highs (= trend). 

Client sentiment data in action as a leading contrarian indicator. 

[Caseynotes]

Indices took a double hit yesterday with China announcing doom on trade talks then in the afternoon another US PMI miss but overnight recovery as China data shows an unexpected PMI beat, so Indices start the grind back up again bulls not willing to lose sight of the highs.

[Caseynotes]

Sebastian Sienkiewicz @Amdalleq

9h

"Wow, 73% of the S&P 500 companies which reported earnings so far beat their estimates (actual Earnings Per Share higher than mean forecast). Highest percentage since 2006. It seems to me like the forecasts were lowered too much.. 40% of the S&P companies reported so far"

[dmedin]

NFP far higher than expected!  What if it's wrong and they have to revise it, as they often do? 

[Ilana]

Please anyone, what time today can the rating announcement on South Africa by Moody's be expected?