Indices

[Caseynotes]

A drop on the hour trading on Sunday but should be an interesting day as price levels still at the recent range highs and a reversal bar on the S&P weekly. This week sees US PMIs tues, Cad rate statement wed,  and US Non Farm Payroll on Friday, also on Friday is Fed chair Powell's economic outlook speech. 

[dmedin]

Missed a big move in FTSE 100 this morning.

[Caseynotes]

yes, out of sync with the other indices so gbpusd must be tanking again.

[Caseynotes]

Top tech companies over the last 23 years infovid;

 

[Guest Zoryana]

If the GBP is tanking and FTSE rising then somebody is loving British exports.......But I would say inflation is a big issue Britain imports so much we cant have a weak pound for too long now

Edited September 2, 2019 by Zoryana

[Caseynotes]

2 minutes ago, Zoryana said:

If the GBP is tanking and FTSE rising then somebody is loving British exports.......But I would say inflation is a big issue Britain imports so much we cant have a weak pound for too long now

yes the pound is suffering as a no deal Brexit looks increasingly likely and could yet retest the lows that came after the referendum back in 2016 (when everyone thought Brexit meant no deal anyway). We have the quarterly UK inflation report this Wednesday should be interesting though it's been fairly low and steady around 2% for this year so far.

[Caseynotes]

IGSquawk 

GBPUSD options for 01 NOV 1(day after Brexit deadline) are now live. Prices currently implying 600 pt move.

[Caseynotes]

Pause candle for Dow yesterday, still at recent range high so anticipating a test of Friday's high 26550 otherwise will need to find support. Ftse caught up with the others yesterday and sits at recent resistance while Dax hangs onto the small gain it made on Friday.

S&P sits just below range high needs a spur for one direction or the other, must be about time for a Trump tweet.

[dmedin]

55 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

 

S&P sits just below range high needs a spur for one direction or the other, must be about time for a Trump tweet.

 

 

 

President Bone Spurs to the rescue

[Caseynotes]

Seeing people drawing attention to the US indices A/D line as in the pic below and also the NYSE A/D line are all making new highs.

[dmedin]

It's gang aglee, my bonnie wee bairns.

 

[Caseynotes]

The Indices are pushing up strong this morning after yesterday's disappointment at the US manu PMI, non-manu PMI coming up tomorrow expected at 54 should be interesting. Ger PMI at8:55am and EU PMI at 9am today.

[dmedin]

You must know something that I don't, I tried trading Wall St yesterday and got bent over a barrel.  Maybe you're just clever enough to know that analysis is easier than actual trading

 

[Caseynotes]

3 minutes ago, dmedin said:

You must know something that I don't, I tried trading Wall St yesterday and got bent over a barrel.  Maybe you're just clever enough to know that analysis is easier than actual trading

 

don't trade when high impact news is about to come out, why do you think i bother to look them up and even post them every morning, apart from that it's just a case of tracking price though the levels. 

going back to level 2 data there was another vid which explained quite well using l2 to find support and resistance levels, real orders get clustered at specific zones (coinciding with obvious chart support/resistance levels) , once price breaks through them there is relatively little standing in it's way until the next level. if instead price is rejected at a level it turns and heads back looking for more support (buyers or sellers) if it's to have another go, i have mentioned all this dozens of times before but you know how it is. 

 

[dmedin]

L2 data 'n' stuff ... yikes.  Can't I just get away with a quick Fibo?

[Caseynotes]

2 minutes ago, dmedin said:

L2 data 'n' stuff ... yikes.  Can't I just get away with a quick Fibo?

fibs are used by some big traders who can move markets sure but nothing like the number who use obvious chart based support and resistance levels which, as mentioned above, also correlate with order clusters on the L2 and also with options futures positioning.

[dmedin]

Should have gone long on Thursday 29th August and kept holding on to this very day, my bonnie wee bairns.

[Caseynotes]

3 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Should have gone long on Thursday 29th August and kept holding on to this very day, my bonnie wee bairns.

ah, I can see where you're going wrong, you might be Chinese perhaps but we read the charts Left to Right, not right to left, easy mistake to make. 

[dmedin]

33 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

ah, I can see where you're going wrong, you might be Chinese perhaps but we read the charts Left to Right, not right to left, easy mistake to make. 

What?

I'm doing 'market analysis'.

It's easy!

[Caseynotes]

6 minutes ago, dmedin said:

What?

I'm doing 'market analysis'.

It's easy!

ah right sorry, i thought you were just trying to predict the past. you'd get even better results if you used higher time frames 🤸‍♀️

[dmedin]

18 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

ah right sorry, i thought you were just trying to predict the past. you'd get even better results if you used higher time frames 🤸‍♀️

 

I could always just post a chart everyday and say something along the lines of 'It might go here or here, but this is where it is now' - that would surely be useful

[Caseynotes]

3 minutes ago, dmedin said:

 

I could always just post a chart everyday and say something along the lines of 'It might go here or here, but this is where it is now' - that would surely be useful

na, you should do what i do instead, so look at the daily chart, what colour was yesterday's candle,

if it was a directional candle today will probably be the same and same colour, less probable but possible it will be a reversal or a pause bar

if yesterday was a pause bar then today could be either directional continuation or a reversal candle

if yesterday was a directional reversal candle today will probably be directional continuation but may be a pause or a reversal.

Then go down to the H1 chart, he who controls the pivot controls short term direction.

 if price is above the daily pivot look for continuation to R1, expect further continuation until you see a reversal.

Same if price is below the pivot, look for continuation to S1, expect further continuation until you see a reversal.

 

so not really looking too far to the left at all.

[dmedin]

By analysing patterns in the past we can extrapolate and look for similar occurrences in future. 

 

[Caseynotes]

China announce trade talks to start early October in Washington and Dow breaks up out of the recent range and drags the others along as well. Expecting directional continuation though watchout for the US ADP nfp and PMIs this afternoon.

Daily charts;

[Caseynotes]

S&P rally continues after US open.

Daily chart;

[dmedin]

Up!  Down!  Up!  Down!  Up!  Down!  I love losing money

[Caseynotes]

Dow has broken the recent range and will be looking for a directional continuation candle today with Dax following, Ftse hampered by Brexit/new elections uncertainty doesn't look to be going anywhere.

[Caseynotes]

The charts remain bullish to start the week, focus will be increasingly drawn to the will they/won't they Fed rate decision next week (Wed 18th). With the all time high just ahead for the Dow may see a pause candle today in contemplation but the recent trend is clearly up with moderate resistance next at 27060.

[Caseynotes]

As mentioned in yesterday's morning post a pause candle it was and for the same reasons could be looking at the start of a short consolidation period for indices. Ftse though basically in step continues to be rattled by Brexit indecision. 

[Caseynotes]

Another pause candle for Dow yesterday though Dax is trying to make some gains. Ftse still has resistance overhead during trying times. Not much on the calendar until ECB rate decision tomorrow.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/10/the-economic-numbers-are-continuing-to-defy-the-recession-hype.html

Daily charts;

Edited September 11, 2019 by Caseynotes