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TA - Technical Analysis


Caseynotes

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If you haven't watched it already check out today's interview with Milton Berg on Real Vision.  There is so much to glean from this single interview about how technical analysis really works; how markets are sentiment driven not fundamentals (intrinsic value) driven; How swing trading is far more profitable than buy and hold, if you can do it right and even a call on likely S&P500 tops.  There is even something in there about astronomical cycles, and before you snigger, what about the famous Santa Claus rally...

Anyway you have to check this out if you at all interested in technical analysis, probably the best Real Vision video to date, and I seen a lot of them.

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4 hours ago, Mercury said:

If you haven't watched it already check out today's interview with Milton Berg on Real Vision.  There is so much to glean from this single interview about how technical analysis really works; how markets are sentiment driven not fundamentals (intrinsic value) driven; How swing trading is far more profitable than buy and hold, if you can do it right and even a call on likely S&P500 tops.  There is even something in there about astronomical cycles, and before you snigger, what about the famous Santa Claus rally...

Anyway you have to check this out if you at all interested in technical analysis, probably the best Real Vision video to date, and I seen a lot of them.

 

Is it worth the subscription fee?

I guess it probably is for the full-time professional trader.

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I guess most people that want to trade do some research, mainly the free information available on the internet yet around 80% of these traders fail, so either 80% of the traders are fools or the information they are reading is foolish, I do not believe 80% of the people are fools so I conclude that most of the information out there, free or otherwise is of limited use. You need to understand what you are doing and that you do it a virtual world, consider if you would do this in the real world at the real cost of a trade.

£1.00 pp is equivalent to 100 shares i.e. 100 shares rise by £0.01 and you make £1.00

if the price of a share/unit or indices is say 7500 that is £75.00 per share or unit so £1.00 pp is equal to 100 x £75.00 or £7,500 therefore if you trade say the FTSE @ around 7500 just £1.00 pp is £7, 500 and £10 pp is £75,000, £20 pp is £150,000

I would assume if you bought an asset for £75,000 you would be expecting it to rise in value but would you really sell it if it went down by £20 or even £50 no I am sure you wouldn't, so what I am trying to say is keep it real and understand what you are doing in this virtual world and it will help to keep you safe. 👿

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I've got a ton of books on trading, several of them from the recommended reading list of the Society of Technical Analysts diploma.  I have also picked up good resources on IG and recommendations by users here.  I'm pretty much saturated with info and have reached my limit until I have absorbed it (Elliot Wave Theory is still slightly cloudy for me me and I have no interest in Ichimoku stuff).

As for asset appreciation.  Hell, I don't even know if my flat will go up in value in five years' time.  Everything is uncertain.  Most people stick money into funds managed by other people and expect to make a profit by the time they retire.  I find that idea hopelessly boring.

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9 minutes ago, dmedin said:

As for asset appreciation.  Hell, I don't even know if my flat will go up in value in five years' time.  Everything is uncertain.  Most people stick money into funds managed by other people and expect to make a profit by the time they retire.  I find that idea hopelessly boring.

So why are you here? 👿

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' The basic premise is this: trading is hard but falling prey to ad hoc shitty pseudo-gut-instinct punt trading is easy. '

I'm looking for the HOLY GRAIL.

That is, for someone to tell me something that we don't all already know.

 

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2 minutes ago, dmedin said:

That is, for someone to tell me something that we don't all already know.

Ok  I can tell you that, if you trade equities they are bullish 70% of the time i.e. don't look for highs to sell look for lows to buy and you increase your odds dramatically, it cost me £30,000 and 10 years to discover that is more important than anything you will find on the net!!!!! 👿

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12 hours ago, dmedin said:

' The basic premise is this: trading is hard but falling prey to ad hoc shitty pseudo-gut-instinct punt trading is easy. '

I'm looking for the HOLY GRAIL.

That is, for someone to tell me something that we don't all already know.

 

Years ago I was listening to a prop trader who told the story that one day he asked a manager at the firm, 'you've seen some really good successful traders come through this firm, what was it they did that was different to the average trader'. The reply was 'they didn't do anything different, they just did everything better'.

That's your Holy Grail and it would seem it comes from within rather than without.

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17 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

Missed this IG video from 15 July on Dow theory, some history and more recent updates.

20 min.

image.thumb.png.5d20d63c8beff847d11d9ebbc9bb10b1.png

 

That's great, there's a lot of good content on IG buried away that often gets missed because it's hard to find.

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Are we stupid for investing so much time, concentration and precious brainpower in learning TA when it is simply wrong most of the time? 

Aren't most professional technical analysts paid to provide analysis for traders, instead of actually trading their own money?

 

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7 hours ago, dmedin said:

Are we stupid for investing so much time, concentration and precious brainpower in learning TA when it is simply wrong most of the time? 

Aren't most professional technical analysts paid to provide analysis for traders, instead of actually trading their own money?

 

Many simply expect far too much from TA, certainly there is no simple yes/no indicator that will have a positive probability because if there was everyone would use it and the market would simply arbitrage it out. All indicators can only be based on historic data and we've all seen the warnings that past performance does not indicate the future. Nearly all indicators I've seen are stamped by the creator with the warning it should not be used in isolation and that would be right.

I would consider the natural wave or zig zag patterns of charts as a base, some like to count bars and try to see repeated patterns in the ratios, some like to name the waves look for the ratio of the large ones (it's 1/7, I saw that down the beach one day) but I wouldn't really bother with any of that.

If a combination of indicators is needed I would look to be matching the frequency's of a fast and a slow oscillator to apply to a trending chart as probably having the best chance with a view to achieving a slightly better win probability than 50/50 and a risk/reward ratio of n number of trades of around 1:2. That would be enough.

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Adding this video link to this thread. 'Why Volatility is the Key to Trading'. It's an hour long 'how to' use futures options trade positioning to indicate possible direction in spot markets using usd/jpy as an example.

It's a bit rushed to get it all in in one hour and gets a bit maths thick in places but don't worry as the skew calculations are available daily from many sources on the web, it just showing how it's done, but well worth sticking to as you end up with a chart with Bollinger Bands morphing into futures positioning high/low bands. So you have an indicator that's using real time data to plot direction not historical data. Interesting stuff.

 

 

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Clearly the leader of the free world agrees that volatility is a good thing.

Indeed, traders may say they hate to get political, but one noted the recent top and bottom were marked by Presidential tweets/and an about-face on China. Traders also noted late-afternoon tweeting on Wednesday. One trader said "Yesterday’s tweets didn’t stall the sell off and we closed on the lows. Maybe his manipulating via tweet isn’t going to have that positive effect going forward." In any event, traders remain focused on their charts, and seeing if recent lows/and key levels such as the 200-day moving averages can hold. If not, they see the breakdown accelerating.

- From Reuters news in the IG platform.

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3 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Clearly the leader of the free world agrees that volatility is a good thing.

As I've shown in the Indices thread since early 2018 he waits for the strong economy to lift the US indices and then strikes at China from that position of strength knowing it will adversely affect the market, wait for it to build up again and repeat x 4 so far. He got worried by Bonds so delayed the next strike til December if then, but yes, he's playing it. 

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For a limited time only on-line trading course plus 259 page e-book 'How to beat Wall Street' free.

legit offer, I've checked these guys out before, just need to give email address, they will post other offers but you can unsubscribe anytime, once signed up you can take as long as you want to complete the course.

 

https://research.jbmarwood.com/p/trading-essentials-how-to-beat-wall-street/?product_id=778007&coupon_code=TWITTERSB

 

image.png.a9b0404fcf3604f87da89425c9de4f58.png

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5 hours ago, Caseynotes said:

For a limited time only on-line trading course plus 259 page e-book 'How to beat Wall Street' free.

legit offer, I've checked these guys out before, just need to give email address, they will post other offers but you can unsubscribe anytime, once signed up you can take as long as you want to complete the course.

 

https://research.jbmarwood.com/p/trading-essentials-how-to-beat-wall-street/?product_id=778007&coupon_code=TWITTERSB

 

image.png.a9b0404fcf3604f87da89425c9de4f58.png

Great :D

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