Caseynotes

Trump tweets on oil again, oil duly responds;

Shanghai composite gets massive boost in volume.

Thank's Guest Richard, that looks to be good advice for trading while travelling. I missed Guest Neil's reply to my original reply to his question, I wasn't meaning that a VPN would speed up the connection but rather that many traders use a VPN for security reasons with no concerns that the extra links slow the connection to any great degree.

Dow gaps up over the strong weekly resistance level 26069, gap fills and now price continues back to retest the recent high. Shanghai composite up over 4% today with the improving outlook on a trade talks though we have been here before of course. Looking for continuation today but keeping an eye on the news feed. H1 charts;

That is an interesting way of presenting an econ calendar @elle, it reads like a story board with the supplemental info added in.

Looking at this daily chart of the Dow (below) it is clearly a bull flag hard up against resistance while from the fundamental perspective trade negotiations continue in Washington. What the final result of those negotiations will be nobody knows, not even the participants, but whatever, no one could really say this is a bearish looking chart. There will always be those who are hostage to their own crippling bias who will forever be telling you this and that, they will stretch technicals to beyond breaking point to try to give their bias some validation. Why bother, they are always wrong far more than they are ever right. It is completely the wrong approach. Your bias is worth nothing, the market doesn't care about your opinions. Block out the noise and just read the chart and react. Most don't understand the difference between chart reading and technical analysis and think they are both the same thing, they are not. The chart has a rhythm and influences that are not bound by technicals which is why technicals fail so often. Whenever price runs into a boundary it will either break through or reverse depending on influences you can neither see nor know, boundaries are great places to sit and watch and be ready to react.

Interestingly volume has dropped away this week compared to previous though need to wait for today's bar to complete for the full picture. 57.83 at the mo.

Nice example of why Support and Resistance is the King of indicators. Below is my Dow chart from December 4th where 26069.6 made it's first appearance as a struggling young H4 resistance level, over time he worked his way up through the ranks to become the Weekly resistance level. That hard work and diligence has paid off as yesterday he received the recognition so rightly deserved when he was tagged and saluted to the tick. Brings a tear to the eye.

Dow tags the weekly resistance level 26069 then pulls back to settle on recent support 25761. US - China talks continuing giving drip feed news this week and into next, no major break either way as yet. Dax sitting on daily chart resistance turned support 11387, to the up side is the weekly resistance level 11569 while on the downside daily support level is 11242. Watch out for German GDP numbers 7:00 am today. Yesterday we saw lower PMI figures than expected pointing to lower GDP figures, GDP Q/Q forecast at 0.0% and Y/Y forecast at 0.9%. German IFO business climate data at 9:00 am and EU CPI data at 10:00 am. Indices daily charts, Dow H4.

"The NYSE Advance/Decline (AD) line made another new all-time high yesterday. This is a very good sign, as market breadth tends to lead stock prices. Also, breadth breaks down ahead of major market peaks. Yet another clue that this bull still has some tricks up his sleeves..." Ryan Detrick, CMT @RyanDetrick

EU PMIs point to GDP growth of just 0.1%. https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/e9139d7e204145399559112c7048fad7?hootPostID=e04259bf981997615aa67559ff8ebbc1

German manu PMI goes deeper into contraction while EU manu PMI also drops below 50.

Dow sidles up to the all important early December high before the big Dec drop, Dax poised to tackle resistance of it's own though keep an eye on the EU and Ger PMIs 8:15 - 8:30. Ftse and Nikkei look well positioned to continue onward and upward. US Durable goods at 1:30. Daily charts;

Two takes on impending doom, take your pick.

Interesting yesterday on London open, Dow didn't react so Dax and Ftse did their own thing which was to head off in opposite directions. Dax made a grab for the weekly resistance level, missed and fell back while Ftse found stronger support down around 7161. Dow maintains a bull flag and may be waiting for the last FOMC meeting minutes release today at 7:00 pm. See brief below. H1 charts; USD: 3 Things To Look At The FOMC Minutes On Wed - BofAML First appeared on eFXplus on Feb 19 - 01:15 PM Share: Bank of America Merrill Lynch Research discusses its expectations for tomorrow's FOMC minutes from the January meeting. "The minutes of the January FOMC meeting will be of particular interest given the extreme dovish pivot from the Fed. We will be looking to learn about the following: 1) why did the Fed go from signaling additional hikes in December to no further hikes just six weeks later in the January meeting? 2) What is the Fed watching to determine next steps? Is it global data? Financial markets? 3) How has the Fed's thought process evolved around the balance sheet normalizationprocess?," BofAML notes. "On hikes, we think there will be a consensus that the best move is for the Fed to signal a pause...On risks, we expect a discussion about the global backdrop, with particular attention on the slowdown in China and the weakness in Europe....The balance sheet discussion may be the most notable. The Fed put out a statement with the last meeting which said that the Fed will embracean "abundant" reserve framework and will allow the balance sheet to adjust to economic conditions. However, we are still missing details. What is the timeline? Is there a target for the optimal level of reserves? Will the Fed taper? We think the Fed will drop some hints on these issues in the minutes as a way of testing the market reaction," BofAML adds. Source: BOFA MERRILL LYNCH RESEARCH/MARKET COMMENTARY

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Forgot to mention German and Euro economic sentiment and expectations data out today at 10:00. Also, Thursday sees German and Euro PMIs which are all hovering around 50 (above 50 = growth, below 50 = contraction). These two related data sets could well influence the direction of the Dax for the month ahead.

Minimal movement yesterday so again looking for Dow and Dax to shuffle up and take a closer look at their respective weekly resistance levels (red). Ftse having had 3 x hourly bar retests of recent support (7207) should be looking to test Friday's resistance at 7262. Daily and H1 chart;

On the weekly charts Dow and Dax have raced up to their respective weekly resistance levels while Ftse and Nikkei have broken through theirs. US public holiday today, and no major calendar events so could be a bit directionless and consolidative today but would like to see Dow take on 26000 then 26069 and Dax attack 11387. Weekly charts;

Hi @Kennzo, IG can list stocks off most exchanges if they meet certain requirements, if you shout out the name of the stock hopefully someone from IG will check or alternatively request via email.

Hi @DGRL, the total value of your trade is as you have done, the contract size x the contract value x the asset price. I was highlighting that there are some alternative ways used to work out margin as is stated in your linked page, one being if a guaranteed stop was used, if you have a 'limited risk' account for example all trades will have a guaranteed stop attached. As @pepi2017 points out it pays to have some lee way with regards to margin as having positions closed on a margin call at short notice on a regular basis gets quite annoying.

Hi @DGRL, the calc will be different if you were using a guaranteed stop. "If you’ve limited your risk, by using a guaranteed stop for example, your margin could be calculated in different ways depending on the size of your trade".

Dow currently retesting the recent low after the disappointing retail sales yesterday so waiting for either a break below or a reversal to retest the recent high. Not much on the calendar today.

Poor US retail sales and PPI data dragging indices down;

Dax caught out this morning. Slightly better than expected German GDP figures on the Euro open sent Dax racing higher but Dow found sellers at the H4 resistance level and reversed hauling Dax down with it. H1 charts;