NDX

[HMB]

 

1 hour ago, THT said:

Plan to write a plan! 

It's not easy, but its also not hard once you have clarity of mind and know what the market is likely to give

for example - a lot of my trade plan is

1. Trade EVERY opportunity - If opportunity does not show do not trade!
2. Risk 2% of my account per trade
3. Enter at X - determined by method
4. Stop will be X pts
5. Target is X pts - determined by method
6. Once up X pts move stop to breakeven + 1pt
7. Then once up 50% of the range from entry to target protect x% of open profits
8. Accept most of the time this will work out perfectly but there will be times when it doesn't and 

the hard part is working out the X parts - because we'd love 1000000000 points from the market, but if it only gives 100 points building a method/strategy for 1000000000 pts ain't going to be much good

 

 

very good template, thank you very much!  I started with something similar (screenshots below) - will use your template as a guideline to improve 

 

 

 

Edited September 11, 2020 by HMB

[HMB]

8 minutes ago, HMB said:

 

very good template, thank you very much!  I started with something similar (screenshots below) - will use your template as a guideline to improve 

 

 

 

[HMB]

[THT]

18 minutes ago, HMB said:

whatever suits your style

Interesting you use the 50% Level - I'm just writing up a post on the 50% level as a trading method - as we speak - for my "How to Win" page

Only thing I'll say is whatever method you design/use make sure you test it to oblivion and back - a huge amount of methods work fine on paper but in the real world of live trading fail

[HMB]

sorry - thought I had deleted two of the three posts with the screenshots

[dmedin]

2 minutes ago, HMB said:

sorry - thought I had deleted two of the three posts with the screenshots

Guarding your 'trade secrets'?

[HMB]

4 minutes ago, THT said:

whatever suits your style

Interesting you use the 50% Level - I'm just writing up a post on the 50% level as a trading method - as we speak - for my "How to Win" page

Only thing I'll say is whatever method you design/use make sure you test it to oblivion and back - a huge amount of methods work fine on paper but in the real world of live trading fail

The 50% level I considered relevant at that specific time, based on the overall impression I got from recent observation.  Not thinking about using this as a general specification.  To be honest, I do not see myself having a "method" that would be explicitly defined enough to be tested in that sense in the near future.  My focus is still more on understanding and identifying changes in dynamics and maintaining a flexible approach.  Kinda every trade can be motivated by a totally different set of factors.  Maybe that's fundamentally wrong, maybe I'm just at an earlier stage of a learning process.  Will keep thinking about that. 

[HMB]

12 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Guarding your 'trade secrets'?

LOOL

 

...yes obviously, by posting them thrice and then failing to delete two of them...  so I'm almost as successful in trading as in guarding my secrets..!

[dmedin]

Nasdaq is still on a debbie downer, don't go long!

 

[HMB]

27 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Nasdaq is still on a debbie downer, don't go long!

 

Watching DAX and Bloomberg TV  and waiting to see what US morning price action brings...  hoping for an (subjectively) attractive short set-up 

[THT]

54 minutes ago, HMB said:

The 50% level I considered relevant at that specific time, based on the overall impression I got from recent observation.  Not thinking about using this as a general specification.  To be honest, I do not see myself having a "method" that would be explicitly defined enough to be tested in that sense in the near future.  My focus is still more on understanding and identifying changes in dynamics and maintaining a flexible approach.  Kinda every trade can be motivated by a totally different set of factors.  Maybe that's fundamentally wrong, maybe I'm just at an earlier stage of a learning process.  Will keep thinking about that. 

Not all you can win in the markets by flipping a coin, so differing factors are valid

[HMB]

6 minutes ago, THT said:

Not all you can win in the markets by flipping a coin, so differing factors are valid

thanks!

[dmedin]

Refer to the indices thread, Eileen  

[HMB]

HFs had already reduced their shorts till Tuesday...:

 

http://quiktweet.com/102420

[HMB]

...enjoying the ability to experiment risk-free in the demo account - adding an "emergency budget" of 10 for cases when attractive opportunity incidentally emerges after loss limit hit... - going long NDX with minimum stop distance and stop below day low after perceived probably successful retest of said low...:

 

 

[HMB]

2 minutes ago, HMB said:

...enjoying the ability to experiment risk-free in the demo account - adding an "emergency budget" of 10 for cases when attractive opportunity incidentally emerges after loss limit hit... - going long NDX with minimum stop distance and stop below day low after perceived probably successful retest of said low...:

 

 

(...after market oscillating in rel. wide range...  SnowFlake +150% or so may reboost tech sentiment...  Fed "anxiety" should keep (short) sellers in check...)

[HMB]

20 minutes ago, HMB said:

(...after market oscillating in rel. wide range...  SnowFlake +150% or so may reboost tech sentiment...  Fed "anxiety" should keep (short) sellers in check...)

lowering stop to 11315

[HMB]

1 hour ago, HMB said:

lowering stop to 11315

stop hit

[HMB]

15 minutes ago, HMB said:

stop hit

...never catch a falling knife, stay out of bottom fishing...  don't trade while Powell talks...  don't trade against medium-term view...

[HMB]

support and Monday/Tuesday overnight low

[Kodiak]

Be careful with bottom fishing

Could be a third wave down?

 

[HMB]

33 minutes ago, Kodiak said:

Be careful with bottom fishing

Could be a third wave down?

 

thanks - interesting - 23.6 looks very relevant..

[HMB]

obviously not a representative sample...  still interesting... read somewhere odd lot short sales sued to be a popular counter-indicator...:

 

[HMB]

10 minutes ago, HMB said:

obviously not a representative sample...  still interesting... read somewhere odd lot short sales sued to be a popular counter-indicator...:

 

used to be (not sued)

[HMB]

maybe nothing, but CME open interest heatmap for NDX options expiring today plus recent NDX range suggest action around 11150 to me - looking forward to see how this actually plays out.

 

 

 

 

[HMB]

long NDX in the demo account (posting this here to give it some more emotional commitment...), stop 10625.

 

some NDX rebound would have been due today without the leak, I guess...  not least due to futures stabilizing after Friday cash close, and strength of recent oscillation pattern...  

market being surprised that banks profit from money laundering, sure... probably more surprised they got caught again... if anything...   (plus no banks in NDX)

 

alternative narrative - for everyone bored by China virus conspiracy theories...:

facts:

 - lenders (incl. JPM) tightened standards during crisis - see e.g. WSJ May 25th

 - mainstream lending facility still has only used 0.3% of capacity (recent Powell statement)

 - leak of money laundering records came from FinCEN, a US Treasury unit

conspiracy theory:

Treasury unhappy with banks' lending reluctance plans to take banks under control - explicitly or implicitly - to boost lending activity.

more advanced conspiracy theory:

Treasury plans to take banks under control to boost lending activity - to an extent that eventually makes MMT/MP3  seem unnecessary, at which point banks get privatized again...  motivator are of course the banks themselves who profit massively from Fed asset purchases, and are scared of losing said profits if the Fed would start lending to Treasury directly under MMT-motivated MP3...

 

let me know what you think ...

 

this is not investment advice..

 

 

 

 

Edited September 21, 2020 by HMB

[HMB]

On 21/09/2020 at 13:35, HMB said:

long NDX in the demo account

closed.   definitely doesn't look like the rebound I was expecting.  don't really have much to hold against Mike Wilson's warning..

Edited September 23, 2020 by HMB

[HMB]

short at 10951.3, guaranteed stop at 11325 (demo account only)

[HMB]

(don't see an obvious target level above 10350 or so - will monitor this closely and might exit early, don't think before 10875, though - if we get there, of course)

[HMB]

...I take the failed rebound extension as indication that all the (retail) money is probably already in or waiting for better levels...  and Wall Street might even sell a bit to get prices closer to attractive entry levels...

 

too much negative influences on sentiment recently: Wilson, the super rich getting ever more careful, 2nd wave fears, election risk...  valuations...  battery day disappointment... profit taking approaching month/q end...  seems much easier to construct a bearish narrative for the near future..

 

but then I might obviously be wrong.  don't try this at home..

Edited September 23, 2020 by HMB