Indices

[dmedin]

Bernard Sanders for President!!!

 

The indices seem to be forming a wedge, so expecting a pullback soon.

[dmedin]

lol!  They are going to try and smear Sanders in the same way they did Corbyn. 

 

[Caseynotes]

1 minute ago, dmedin said:

Bernard Sanders for President!!!

Considering Biden Snr and Jnr could both be in jail for their part in Ukrainian corruption could end up a race between Saunders and Trump. Delicious.

4 minutes ago, dmedin said:

The indices seem to be forming a wedge, so expecting a pullback soon.

Still needs a driver, a pattern itself isn't a driver but more of a coercion or sometimes just a clue as to possibilities. I'm thinking of writing a book called 'Failed Chart Patterns' and have lots of pics of chart patterns that never worked out, you don't ever see that. Do you think it would sell?

[dmedin]

29 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

Do you think it would sell?

I think a book dedicated to showing how cr@p TA in general is, from the perspective of someone who has done it, would generate some interest.  But it's far easier to make money from just selling people 'number one strategies' and 'winning formulas' instead.  Just put some videos up on Youtube and you'll draw in all the credulous punters.  You can cherry-pick chart patterns with the benefit of hindsight and say 'Look, if you'd done this at that point you'd have been rich by now!'

[AndrewS]

2 hours ago, dmedin said:

 Just put some videos up on Youtube and you'll draw in all the credulous punters.  You can cherry-pick chart patterns with the benefit of hindsight and say 'Look, if you'd done this at that point you'd have been rich by now!'

I’m thinking that it is better to cherry-pick your losers and learn form that. I read Aziz’s best seller on Amazon and I don’t think he has done beginners a disservice.

 

[dmedin]

5 minutes ago, AndrewS said:

I’m thinking that it is better to cherry-pick your losers and learn form that.

If people did that, they would 'learn' that trading is a waste of time and do something more productive with their time than gamble using methods that cause 95 - 99% of people to lose money.

Edited December 19, 2019 by dmedin

[Caseynotes]

11 minutes ago, dmedin said:

If people did that, they would 'learn' that trading is a waste of time and do something more productive with their time than gamble using methods that cause 95 - 99% of people to lose money.

right, I think I'll start up a business instead, oh wait ...

 

90% Of Startups Fail: Here's What You Need To Know About The 10%

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/neilpatel/2015/01/16/90-of-startups-will-fail-heres-what-you-need-to-know-about-the-10/

[AndrewS]

Well, you could not have watched the video given that you replied in 5 minutes.  In the Introduction to his book Aziz writes.

“In my opinion, the most important lesson that you can learn from reading this book is that you will not get rich quickly by day trading. Day trading is not similar to gambling or playing the lottery. This is the most important misconception that people have about day trading and I hope you will come to the same conclusion after reading this book. Day trading looks deceptively easy. Brokers do not normally release customer statistics to the public but, in Massachusetts, a state court did order the release of the records of financial brokers. Those records indicated that after six months of trading, only 16% of day traders actually made money. It is very easy to be one of those 84% of traders who are losing money.

This bring you to my first rule of day trading:

Rule 1: Day trading is not a strategy to get rich quickly.

A very common misconception that people have about day trading is that it is easy: “buy low, sell high” or “buy the dip, sell the rally”. Again, day trading looks deceptively easy, but it is not.

If it were that simple, everyone would be a successful trader. You must always remember that day trading is difficult and will not make you rich quickly. If you have this misconception, and if you want to get rich quickly and easily in the stock market, you should stop reading this book right now and spend the savings that you put aside for day trading on a nice family vacation. It would be much more satisfying to spend your money that way, rather than losing it in the stock market.

Having mentioned all of these points, day trading can be a profitable profession. But keep in mind that it’s a highly demanding professional career and most definitely not a casual activity for beginners. It takes time to become a consistently profitable trader. Many traders will fail in the long and at times fatal day trading learning curve.”

[dmedin]

I've read his book and I know he spends most of his time in salaried employment (writing books and training people) so I know where he really gets his money from.  I've long ago given up on the idea of 'making a living' from 'day trading', my sole goal is to do better than sticking my savings in a 2% savings account, but the ONE AND ONLY method that has even a remote chance is sticking funds in a broadly diversified ETF and LEAVING IT ALONE.  (Better yet, paying off the mortgage and spending the rest on having a good time before I die ...)

Active trading is risky, just like running a business, but the similarities end there.  Unless you want to tell me that taking your cash to Vegas is like running a business as well.

Edited December 19, 2019 by dmedin

[Caseynotes]

Dow and S&P break into new highs, S&P at 3,200.

[dmedin]

Beware the Ides of March

Quote

“The market has run up so quickly that we may get a sharp pullback purely on technical reasons, but we still think that there’s going to be a catch-up trade in areas that haven’t had the same run,” he said.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-usa-investors-risks-analysis/wheres-the-risk-u-s-fund-managers-bet-on-bull-run-in-2020-idUKKBN1YM1CN

[dmedin]

The U.S. indices are blasting off into the stratosphere,

(Well, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 at least,)

But oh, how long will it last? 

And for how long shall it be, my bonnie loon?

Of which oracle shall we enquire?  To which god shall we pray?

What animal's intestines or tea leafs shall we divine our omens from?

Oh the pain!  The pain!  I cannot take it any more, my bonnie bairn! 

 

[Caseynotes]

15 minutes ago, dmedin said:

The U.S. indices are blasting off into the stratosphere,

(Well, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 at least,)

But oh, how long will it last? 

And for how long shall it be, my bonnie loon?

Of which oracle shall we enquire?  To which god shall we pray?

What animal's intestines or tea leafs shall we divine our omens from?

Oh the pain!  The pain!  I cannot take it any more, my bonnie bairn! 

 

thought you already had this sorted. You don't need any of the above or Reuters or any of it.

Step 1/ look at the chart. is it going up, down or flat? if flat walk away. if up you are looking for longs, if down looking for shorts. are you with me so far? good.

Step 2/ for longs look to buy a dip. if no dip presents then look for a break.

that's it, really. you can chuck all that baggage in the bin.

[Caseynotes]

Strong day yesterday for Dow, S&P and Ftse. Dax still lagging as Merkel struggles to make a trade deal with China, one recent report said China had threatened to declare 1 mil Ger imported cars unsafe if Merkel did not accept Huawei 5G into into Germany.

[Caseynotes]

hahaha

[dmedin]

😂

[dmedin]

😻  Watch out for RSI divergence/RSI dipping below 70, that will be the point to take profits/enter back in long.

Edited December 20, 2019 by dmedin

[dmedin]

Cripes!  A big ding-dong

Quote

Ding dong markets merrily on high

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-global-markets-themes/take-five-ding-dong-markets-merrily-on-high-idUKKBN1YO1LK?il=0

[dmedin]

Quote

The benchmark S&P 500 is up nearly 28% for the year, which if the market closed this week for the year, would mark the second-best annual performance for the index since 1997.

However, investors who are hoping the rally will continue charging ahead through next year may be disappointed. The S&P 500 has returned an average of 6.6% in the year following a rally of 20% or more since 1928, slightly below the 7.6% return in all years, according to research from Bespoke Investment Group.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks-weekahead/wall-street-week-ahead-history-suggests-rally-may-slow-for-u-s-stocks-in-20-idUKKBN1YO1C1

[dmedin]

Russell 2000 is a good index to watch and trade on in 2020

[Caseynotes]

 

S&P runs up to the weekly pivot R2 on the US morning session.

Daily and H1 charts;

[dmedin]

Zut alors! 🐮🥳😻

[Caseynotes]

10 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Zut alors! 🐮🥳😻

[dmedin]

Confluence of factors here suggesting there will be a pullback soon - get ready to buy the dip 🐮

[dmedin]

Zut alors, Geraldine? 🤔🐮

[dmedin]

No pullback yet.  Nice and juicy thus far 😘

[dmedin]

Wee pullback happening just now.  Buy the dips, Mr Chips!

[Caseynotes]

Looking like open interest is starting to take off on the US indices (green line bottom pic). The big guns have stayed on the sidelines til now but look to be coming to the party. 

[Caseynotes]

And continuing on from the recent big move up in open interest in S&P (see last post above) further evidence hedge funds are finally moving in on US equities in a big way after staying on the sidelines for most of the year.

 

 

Edited December 28, 2019 by Caseynotes

[Caseynotes]

Nice looking monthly charts all round, US indices in clear breakout mode, Dax and Ftse after having stalled for a considerable time are in a position to be drawn along with them. The US economy pushes the US indices which in turn pulls the other first world indices along with it. Most of the Dax and Ftse constituents are international companies and so are not tied solely to the countries economy in which they are based (see equally weighted top 10 countries chart below also in breakout mode).