Indices

[cheviot]

1 hour ago, Caseynotes said:

that's true enough but I'm looking generally at the 70% of IG clients short the S&P, a figure that's been fairly consistent for the whole of the last year while the S&P was up over 28%.

"Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 76% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider."

 

A large number of those shorts are actually Covering net long equities....i.e they are hedges.  Hence when the market drops , short indx positions get bought back...Also Put/call options delta hedges.....I have noticed when Apple rallies (in a 15 minute section) Sp 500 falls....That says to me that traders are buying Apple (for example) but selling INDX futures against it...

It also depends on you time horizon.  If you are jobbing it net long....fine go for it.....I try and trade with a view .....So at the moment i m jobbing it nett short BUT I scoop back in when appropriate......For example i bought back some SP short on Friday at the close....I ll look to re-instate as it pushes back up....

I guess I prefer to get it wrong because my view was wrong, rather than get caught with the wrong possy with a view I do nt actually agree with.  

If you are a black box trader ....no view just react to a number on the screen....Does nt do anything for me.....I look for patterns /ratios/ and a view....I suppose i take a 'position' in the market ....Get out or get in when /if  things go right or wrong....

[Caseynotes]

4 minutes ago, cheviot said:

A large number of those shorts are actually Covering net long equities....i.e they are hedges.  Hence when the market drops , short indx positions get bought back...Also Put/call options delta hedges.....I have noticed when Apple rallies (in a 15 minute section) Sp 500 falls....That says to me that traders are buying Apple (for example) but selling INDX futures against it...

It also depends on you time horizon.  If you are jobbing it net long....fine go for it.....I try and trade with a view .....So at the moment i m jobbing it nett short BUT I scoop back in when appropriate......For example i bought back some SP short on Friday at the close....I ll look to re-instate as it pushes back up....

I guess I prefer to get it wrong because my view was wrong, rather than get caught with the wrong possy with a view I do nt actually agree with.  

If you are a black box trader ....no view just react to a number on the screen....Does nt do anything for me.....I look for patterns /ratios/ and a view....I suppose i take a 'position' in the market ....Get out or get in when /if  things go right or wrong....

I can see what your saying but think you may be over estimating the sophistication of the average retail client. The SSI figures are for clients with open long or short positions so covering to get out of a long just removes the long and doesn't add to the short side.

Any system that works for you is valid and I wouldn't knock it but your average retail punter has little experience and only lasts about 6 months, they always seems intent on basically trying to call tops and bottoms which they generally don't have the skill or experience to do. So they just keep reloading after each stop out til the account is gone. They would be far better concentrating on learning a simple trend following strategy to begin with. As I inferred earlier, every time there is a single red daily candle on the Dow or S&P everyone falls over themselves to declare 'this is it' the top is finally in, get short. After years and years of it it really starts to grate, particularly with so many noobs so keen to just jump straight in on any shout out.

 

[cheviot]

all trading strategies are equally valid if they work for the individual or institution... 

We are all bargain seeking ...either buying a 'low' or selling a 'high'....We ca nt see over the hill top...We just make informed guesses or straight forward gambles....

I ve had my share of success and my share of failures.....I bought the SP 500 at 670 in Feb 2009 ....I thought it was over done and over sold.....but sold it for a few points because the world (being the same over confident financial scribblers) said the world was going to end.....it was too hot to hold on to...!!!  

My failures have been bailing out of (good)positions too quick....and running losses too in equal measure,,, Failures including $ Swfr...**** currency ...and getting my **** kicked trying to trade the looney C$ !!! 

Buy low ...sell high .....Trouble is what is low and what is high >>>>>????

[dau710]

Hello,

I have found Rayner Teo's Free PDF books on Trend Following excellent and they are Genuinely Free.

https://www.tradingwithrayner.com

[dmedin]

3 hours ago, cheviot said:

all trading strategies are equally valid if they work for the individual or institution... 

We are all bargain seeking ...either buying a 'low' or selling a 'high'....We ca nt see over the hill top...We just make informed guesses or straight forward gambles....

I ve had my share of success and my share of failures.....I bought the SP 500 at 670 in Feb 2009 ....I thought it was over done and over sold.....but sold it for a few points because the world (being the same over confident financial scribblers) said the world was going to end.....it was too hot to hold on to...!!!  

My failures have been bailing out of (good)positions too quick....and running losses too in equal measure,,, Failures including $ Swfr...**** currency ...and getting my **** kicked trying to trade the looney C$ !!! 

Buy low ...sell high .....Trouble is what is low and what is high >>>>>????

 

So if you'd just bought an S&P 500 ETF and reinvested the dividends you would have ridden out the troughs and your capital would not only have been preserved but appreciated handsomely, the longer you held it.

Everything I read on here leads me to suspect that traders are gamblers who lose money trying to beat 'buy and hold', and they fail over and over and over again and just never learn.

[Caseynotes]

29 minutes ago, dmedin said:

 

So if you'd just bought an S&P 500 ETF and reinvested the dividends you would have ridden out the troughs and your capital would not only have been preserved but appreciated handsomely, the longer you held it.

Everything I read on here leads me to suspect that traders are gamblers who lose money trying to beat 'buy and hold', and they fail over and over and over again and just never learn.

same question over and over so I'll give the same answer over again.

When you say 'buy and hold' you are meaning investing not trading but you don't have the capital to earn a living from investing. So trading is difficult and you can't do it so you really want someone to do it for you but still no takers it seems, maybe more goading will do it?  I did write the 'how to build a system' piece in the 'Trade Planning and Testing' thread because you keep on so but even just reading that was too difficult it seems. 🛌

[dmedin]

19 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

you don't have the capital to earn a living from investing

 

I don't have the capital to earn a living from trading either. 😮

Making a couple of hundred pounds a day from trading is only possible if you already have a lot of money to play with.  You can easily lose a couple of hundred a day though.

[dmedin]

24 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

'how to build a system'

I'll be perfectly honest with you here, and tell you I think it's a total crock of sh!t (day trading).  I'm even ashamed of myself for thinking it was possible at one time.

[Caseynotes]

4 minutes ago, dmedin said:

I'll be perfectly honest with you here, and tell you I think it's a total crock of sh!t (day trading).  I'm even ashamed of myself for thinking it was possible at one time.

yes for you it is, we get that.

[dmedin]

2 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

yes for you it is, we get that.

 

For most ...

[cheviot]

6 minutes ago, dmedin said:

I'll be perfectly honest with you here, and tell you I think it's a total crock of sh!t (day trading).  I'm even ashamed of myself for thinking it was possible at one time.

If you are unhappy trading , the best thing to do is stop. Not everybody can trade, do something else ?  

[Caseynotes]

1 minute ago, dmedin said:

 

For most ...

for most beginners yes, but often they come back with a new approach, eventually most with adopted a rules based strategy that testing shows has a positive expectancy but we've gone over this again and again. Others just keep dancing around in circles expecting to just pick it up some how but I've never heard of that working.

[dmedin]

58 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

for most beginners yes, but often they come back with a new approach, eventually most with adopted a rules based strategy that testing shows has a positive expectancy but we've gone over this again and again. Others just keep dancing around in circles expecting to just pick it up some how but I've never heard of that working.

ALL RIGHT.  I'll get my nose back to the grind stone and work on a plan

[Caseynotes]

4 minutes ago, dmedin said:

ALL RIGHT.  I'll get my nose back to the grind stone and work on a plan

GOOD, glad to hear it.

[Caseynotes]

S&P homing in on the all time high again.

Daily chart;

[dmedin]

17 hours ago, cheviot said:

all trading strategies are equally valid if they work for the individual or institution... 

We are all bargain seeking ...either buying a 'low' or selling a 'high'....We ca nt see over the hill top...We just make informed guesses or straight forward gambles....

I ve had my share of success and my share of failures.....I bought the SP 500 at 670 in Feb 2009 ....I thought it was over done and over sold.....but sold it for a few points because the world (being the same over confident financial scribblers) said the world was going to end.....it was too hot to hold on to...!!!  

My failures have been bailing out of (good)positions too quick....and running losses too in equal measure,,, Failures including $ Swfr...**** currency ...and getting my **** kicked trying to trade the looney C$ !!! 

Buy low ...sell high .....Trouble is what is low and what is high >>>>>????

 

So ... did you ever actually manage to make any money from trading?

And if so, did you beat the 'buy and hold' approach?

[Caseynotes]

China delegation is in Washington to sign phase 1, will they do another runner at the last minute? 😂

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/01/13/china-energy-manufactured-goods-trade-deal-098343

US and Dax poised at the highs and Ftse spying the monthly chart resistance level (purple). UK poor GDP data yesterday but they will all follow the US indices higher if the US economy looks set for another boom.

 

[Caseynotes]

We have looked before at the open interest in Indices still being on the low side, here is another look from a different angle.

h/t to themarketear.

 

[cheviot]

FTSE 100  in a triangle of indecision .  ....Looses momentum in this 7630 area 

[Caseynotes]

Christopher Nicolas Dembik @Dembik_Chris

3m

 

This is certainly one of the most important economic news of the past months. Our leading indicator for China credit impulse is back in positive territory for the 1st time since the end of 2017. Running at 0.7% of GDP. It confirms our positive narrative for the global economy

[dmedin]

2 hours ago, Caseynotes said:

China delegation is in Washington to sign phase 1, will they do another runner at the last minute? 😂

 

Don't worry, the t*rd in chief will start his phase 2 BS come February and we can have another year of the same.  Oh, and the Brexit bull-locks will flare up again at the same time. 

[hart]

19 hours ago, dmedin said:

 

So if you'd just bought an S&P 500 ETF and reinvested the dividends you would have ridden out the troughs and your capital would not only have been preserved but appreciated handsomely, the longer you held it.

Everything I read on here leads me to suspect that traders are gamblers who lose money trying to beat 'buy and hold', and they fail over and over and over again and just never learn.

buy n hold using cfd's?

u will be slaves n keep on paying interest.....hardcore...lolx

[dmedin]

Quote

After three years at the White House, Trump has completely changed his view about the stock market.

Now he's euphoric and has turned to Twitter to brag about how the Dow's record-breaking run has added "VALUE" to the American Business.

But back in 2015 with the U.S. index 10k points below current levels he had warned of a "Bubble Like You've Never Seen Before".

Check out this snapshot, courtesy of Giuseppe Sersale, portfolio manager at Anthilia, who notes on Twitter: "It's impressive how views can change".

 

If the t*rd loves it so much that's as good a reason as any to steer well away from it 

[cheviot]

Look out everybody,,,I just bought cable...God loves a trier ...or so they say ....

I think it is A to $1.32 off $1.29 and we ve just completed C of B ,,,filing London gap left over from New years day at $1.2950.   C will take us back up to $1.32 or so before a plunge lower.....So I m a bear who is willing to hold £ just to sell later....

[cheviot]

53 minutes ago, cheviot said:

Look out everybody,,,I just bought cable...God loves a trier ...or so they say ....

I think it is A to $1.32 off $1.29 and we ve just completed C of B ,,,filing London gap left over from New years day at $1.2950.   C will take us back up to $1.32 or so before a plunge lower.....So I m a bear who is willing to hold £ just to sell later....

Mmmm  could nt hold 90 bid, guess we re going to take aleg down to $1.2910 now ?? 

 

 

[dmedin]

1 hour ago, cheviot said:

Mmmm  could nt hold 90 bid, guess we re going to take aleg down to $1.2910 now ?? 

 

When I look at FX I just see see-sawing up and down ... I wouldn't trade any FX pairs except maybe USD/Yen

[Caseynotes]

 

Steve Place @stevenplace

16h

"The Nasdaq Composite is currently 36% above its 200 week moving average. At the 2000 peak, it was 150% above This market is not like the Dot Com bubble."

[dmedin]

2 hours ago, cheviot said:

Mmmm  could nt hold 90 bid, guess we re going to take aleg down to $1.2910 now ?? 

 

 

Pound strength then is it?  Must be advanced-perspective insight that predicts higher interest rates after the imminent rate cut

[cheviot]

1 hour ago, dmedin said:

Pound strength then is it?  Must be advanced-perspective insight that predicts higher interest rates after the imminent rate cut

Conversely ....£ getting bids on the back of Gilts going up,,,,Foreign buyers covering £ short....not unusual 

[dmedin]

Quote

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said late on Tuesday that the United States would keep in place tariffs on Chinese goods until the completion of a second phase of a U.S.-China trade agreement, triggering some profit-taking in risk assets.

 

Yep, sh!t-for-brains is going to pull the same stunt this year - 'phase 2'.  Like a true mob boss

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-global-markets/stocks-slip-ahead-of-u-s-china-trade-deal-signing-idUKKBN1ZE032