Indices

[HMB]

16 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

Just looking at the NASDAQ daily chart and as for all the US indices daily chart traders dip buying since forever is the play. Well highlighted by the Williams Percent Ratio indy here;

please correct me if I'm wrong, and of course it depends on the horizon, but didn't give Williams %R quite a few false signals in Feb/March?

 

[dmedin]

I quit the Aussie short trade (which was ill-advised given the time of day I did it) and got into Dax instead

 

[dmedin]

Just now, HMB said:

Williams %R

Gives bad signals all the time just like other noisy oscillators.

[Caseynotes]

2 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Gives bad signals all the time just like other noisy oscillators.

haha, I been using it for many years longer than you even heard of spread betting so I know just your usual bs. The chart is pretty obvious.

[dmedin]

3 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

haha, I been using it for many years longer than you even heard of spread betting so I know just your usual bs. The chart is pretty obvious.

 

You don't have to be mean.  We are all capable of producing charts with indicators lined up and looking good.  That's the f*king easy bit.  Trying to trade it without benefit of hindsight is a different proposition altogether.

Quote

The chart is pretty obvious.

Yes, it's f*king obvious even without Williams %R slapped on top of it

Edited September 10, 2020 by dmedin

[Caseynotes]

8 minutes ago, HMB said:

please correct me if I'm wrong, and of course it depends on the horizon, but didn't give Williams %R quite a few false signals in Feb/March?

 

sure, but was that not a period of down trend in which case you should have been looking to sell the indicator rally peaks not automatically buy the troughs

[dmedin]

2 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

indicator rally peaks

All the 'oversold' peaks that happened after the downtrend was over

[Caseynotes]

2 minutes ago, dmedin said:

 

You don't have to be mean.  We are all capable of producing charts with indicators lined up and looking good.  That's the f*king easy bit.  Trying to trade it without benefit of hindsight is a different proposition altogether.

Yes, it's f*king obvious even without Williams %R slapped on top of it

That's the point though isn't it, the indicator could have been on the chart the entire time and would have said the same thing. I don't trade the daily chart but have always had W%P or Stoch (smoothing set to 1) on the charts I do trade.

[HMB]

7 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

sure, but was that not a period of down trend in which case you should have been looking to sell the indicator rally peaks not automatically buy the troughs

okay, and what tells us that we're not in a downtrend now?

[Caseynotes]

Just now, Caseynotes said:

That's the point though isn't it, the indicator could have been on the chart the entire time and would have said the same thing. I don't trade the daily chart but have always had W%P or Stoch (smoothing set to 1) on the charts I do trade.

you should only be concerned about the overbought/sold levels if you have fine tuned the indy to use them, otherwise just look to the turning points. In a strong trend there are few fakes.

If you are long in a strong uptrend you want to see the indy chopping in and out of overbought continually and for as long as possible, that's what it does in a strong uptrend.

[Caseynotes]

4 minutes ago, HMB said:

okay, and what tells us that we're not in a downtrend now?

2 x MAs of your choice sloping and in order is a good trend indicator.

Sure we maybe in the start of a downtrend but 4 bear candles doesn't make for one.

[HMB]

1 minute ago, Caseynotes said:

2 x MAs of your choice sloping and in order is a good trend indicator.

Sure we maybe in the start of a downtrend but 4 bear candles doesn't make for one.

understood - thank you!

[dmedin]

21 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

That's the point though isn't it, the indicator could have been on the chart the entire time and would have said the same thing. I don't trade the daily chart but have always had W%P or Stoch (smoothing set to 1) on the charts I do trade.

 

Looking at stochastics (14, 3, 3) - they make sense when %D diverges from the price in an extreme area (%D fails to make a new high/low in overbought/oversold when the price does), then you sell or buy when %K crosses below it.

Is that right  

Any use for stochastics when %D and %K are not in oversold/overbought zones?

[Caseynotes]

Just to be clear with W%R, in an uptrend you are only looking for troughs to buy and are ignoring all peaks and hoping, after you have bought, that it stay in or around overbought forever.

In a downtrend you are only looking for peaks to sell and and ignoring all troughs then hoping it stays in oversold forever.

When in a range and your MAs are horizontal then you can consider alternative buying troughs and selling peaks.

[Caseynotes]

1 minute ago, dmedin said:

 

Looking at stochastics (14, 3, 3) - they make sense when %D diverges from the price in an extreme area (%D fails to make a new high/low in overbought/oversold when the price does), then you sell or buy when %K crosses below it.

Is that right  

Any use for stochastics when %D and %K are not in oversold/overbought zones?

Sure but there is no single recipe for the use of any indicator that will mean it will always work, stoch is good for showing divergences but so is RSI and macd.

On slow stoch settings in a strong uptrend stoch will just show flatline in overbought and show no dips to buy at all so that's no use.

If that's the case you need to fine tune it to show dips to buy to join in the trend, also some stoch indys have 3 settings, signal on k/d crossover, signal on k exit obos, signal on d exit obos. Take your pick.

 

 

[dmedin]

.

Edited September 10, 2020 by dmedin

[dmedin]

I should have stuck to my system, Tom

[Caseynotes]

Checking support after London open.

M15

[dmedin]

15 minutes on DAX, got shafted lol

[Caseynotes]

1 hour ago, Caseynotes said:

FTSE and S&P find support at the monthly S1.

Dow tested the pivot during the Asian session though the London open will likely initially check lower to find current buyers in waiting.

Dax looks again at the weekly chart resistance level.

FTSE and S&P daily.

Dax and Dow M15.

 

[Navarone]

3 hours ago, HMB said:

not following ASX very closely...  why has it under-performed so much...?  given in particular the relatively strong China recovery...?  are you seeing reasons for breakout to below 50% retracement..?

 

Uncertainty. The state of Victoria including Melbourne went into it's second lock down around 7th July and is still in it.

[dmedin]

Well, I do not know how to reliably trade 15 min charts.

When you backtest on historical data, you don't factor in news and events.  So trading news events on a minute scale is something you can probably only practice in demo.

[dmedin]

Should've just stuck to my guns  lol

[dmedin]

Well Eileen, the indices are taking a huge dump this morning 🤓

[AndrewS]

55 minutes ago, dmedin said:

15 minutes on DAX, got shafted lol

 I have been up the last 12 hours and have scaled out of a small short on the Dax about a dozen times.

When I am shaken into something it is usually FOMO, and when I am shaken out of something it is usually because the analysis of support/resistance and price action was not very good to begin with.

I find it useful to keep a visual reminder on the chart in the form of price alarms and it helps in assessing the risk/return at any given price.

Oh and if I my attention is on the charts then I don't have time to post here.

Edited September 10, 2020 by AndrewS

[Caseynotes]

54 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Well, I do not know how to reliably trade 15 min charts.

When you backtest on historical data, you don't factor in news and events.  So trading news events on a minute scale is something you can probably only practice in demo.

simple, don't trade the news or market openings but wait til the indecision whipsaw is over.

[Caseynotes]

Dax and Dow M15;

[HMB]

5 hours ago, Navarone said:

Uncertainty. The state of Victoria including Melbourne went into it's second lock down around 7th July and is still in it.

Ok, thank you

[dmedin]

Depressed ...

 

 

[dmedin]

Well guys, a choppy sideways market it is.

Enjoy! 💀