Indices

[dmedin]

Yes, I guess we should have looked at the daily chart on FTSE 100 first and noticed yesterday was a big green up day pushing past 23.6%, so it could go all the way up to 88.6% before it potentially drops again - or it could go all the way up to 100% - or it could go all the way above 100% 🤪

[dmedin]

Let's close out our third DAX short while it's still in profit 🤯

[dmedin]

S&P 500 has found support from 50 day SMA, cheers to all those S&P 500 ETF dollar-averaging investors who have made a mint this year doing absolutely nothing 🤣

 

[Caseynotes]

Dax open test of support at the daily pivot;

[dmedin]

Also the Nasdaq is consolidating around 50%, 20 and 50 SMAs, so if we see a nice green candle on the daily chart we can go long with a stop just below 50%

[dmedin]

Russell 2000 looks really bullish 🐮

[dmedin]

I think we're headed back down soon, Geoffrey 🤔

[HMB]

3 hours ago, dmedin said:

Our Dax short 'hit the spot' and netted us £135 in profit

couldn't have timed it better!  care to share what made you close it?

[Caseynotes]

3 hours ago, dmedin said:

Our Dax short 'hit the spot' and netted us £135 in profit

how long are you planing to stay back on demo this time?

[dmedin]

5 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

how long are you planing to stay back on demo this time?

 

I've already fended off the temptation to go straight back into live a couple of times, which is a big improvement.  At least six months I would say.  I'd like to see if I can grow the £5000 demo account to £10,000 first.

I still have no idea what I'm doing, switching views, time frames, moving averages all the time.

Not nearly ready for live yet

[dmedin]

Six more months Tom, are you looking forward to it 😘

[Caseynotes]

1 minute ago, dmedin said:

Six more months Tom, are you looking forward to it 😘

I've already spoken at length about demo, the point being is it's not live, nothing really matters.

Once you've tested your strategy and it's working on demo then the progression is to see if it will work live (are the rules sound and can you stick to them). The progression is part of the learning process, there is no point in spending years and years in the 5th grade repeating the same lessons over and over.

20 trades back test

20 trades demo

20 trades live on min position size .... does it (and you) still work?

if not work out why, make alterations and go back to the start and try again.

 

[dmedin]

Might go short on the FTSE 100 if there is a reasonable red candle near here.

 

[Caseynotes]

2 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Might go short on the FTSE 100 if there is a reasonable red candle near here.

if you're not sure whether to take a trade or not instead of consulting your plan just toss a coin 🤪

[dmedin]

I don't know what my plan is yet.  It doesn't look like one set of MAs can be applied across all markets, for example.

Intra-day trading, I don't know what's best.

Bollinger with RSI?  MACD?  Using 200 EMA as a filter?  Going purely off candle patterns and Fib levels?  I have no idea.  

 

 

 

[dmedin]

The FTSE might back off the 50% retracement and slide back down again.  Hence, on an hour chart, wait for a rejection off that level.  

 

[dmedin]

Next place to look for a rejection (as we only want to go short right now) is the 61.8% retracement over head  🐻

[Caseynotes]

6 minutes ago, dmedin said:

I don't know what my plan is yet.  It doesn't look like one set of MAs can be applied across all markets, for example.

Intra-day trading, I don't know what's best.

Bollinger with RSI?  MACD?  Using 200 EMA as a filter?  Going purely off candle patterns and Fib levels?  I have no idea.  

 

TA is less about blindly adhering to some textbook chart formations and more about seeking context.

Trading Composure @TradingComposure

 

Charts do NOT predict prices. No form of TA predicts prices.

Charts suggest the path of least resistance

Charts provide a means to determine the risk of a trade

Charts offer help in timing

Charts offer POSSIBILITIES, not probabilities and certainly not certainties

Peter Brandt  @PeterLBrandt

 

Finding and combing indicators to give entry signals with a positive expectancy for your preferred market and time frame takes experimentation and testing.

 

The Trading Rush videos showed backtests of basic trading plans, below is more about building your own.

https://nononsensetrader.com/how-to-backtest/

 

[dmedin]

Keep going Kathleen 🐮

[AndrewS]

This is a somewhat funny story. About a year ago I saw a review of an automated trading system which I downloaded from a Russian website which has hundreds of pirated systems. The trading system was simply optimized moving averages with a buy the dip strategy and retailed at over $1,000 when it was launched.

Anyway the reviewer would scan a number of instruments assessing the market structure and then select those instruments where the automated system would “work”. He gave the system a four star rating because it had a 80% win rate. But the “success” of the system was entirely through the expertise of the reviewer in assessing the market structure of the instruments.

[dmedin]

I'm not sure I like any indicators.  Volume maybe?

https://nononsensetrader.com/how-to-backtest/ has custom indicators for MT4, so I don't know what those are.

I'm not even very fond of moving averages any more.

Just Fibs, candle and the RSI?

Made money shorting Wall Street here.

 

Edited October 23, 2020 by dmedin

[dmedin]

The more I keep thinking about trading, the less I know.

It's a downhill process every single day.  I am totally clueless now, but I was full of ideas this morning.

Who knows?

[Caseynotes]

46 minutes ago, dmedin said:

I'm not sure I like any indicators.  Volume maybe?

https://nononsensetrader.com/how-to-backtest/ has custom indicators for MT4, so I don't know what those are.

I'm not even very fond of moving averages any more.

Just Fibs, candle and the RSI?

Made money shorting Wall Street here.

missing the point, doesn't matter what indicators you choose, if a macd crossover aligning with a new moon shows a positive expectancy on testing then great.

ps, if you are on demo you are not making any money.

[HMB]

6 minutes ago, dmedin said:

The more I keep thinking about trading, the less I know.

It's a downhill process every single day.  I am totally clueless now, but I was full of ideas this morning.

Who knows?

"Markets are there to keep us humble." K. Foulathi

think what you describe is exactly what he meant...

personally, I'm at the stage of drawing funny oval shapes on my charts - maybe this way I'll notice something, some day...:

 

[dmedin]

4 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

ps, if you are on demo you are not making any money.

 

That's right, I just got into the habit of saying that

[dmedin]

MACD? 🥴

[dmedin]

MACD and RSI are saying the same thing (MACD crosses below signal and RSI drops below 50)

What's really useful here though are those Fibonacci levels.  (Except when they aren't, like where the big horizontal oval shape is)

 

Edited October 24, 2020 by dmedin

[dmedin]

So that's a bearish candle, after an up move that's running out of steam (with small read bodies and long legs), falling back down towards established Fibonacci levels, with a MACD crossing from above 0 and RSI below 50

 

 

At one point I had the RSI set to 9, and that additionally gives an overbought divergence (price goes higher but RSI doesn't).  This also gives a nice oversold indication when the move down is coming to an end

 

Edited October 24, 2020 by dmedin

[dmedin]

5 hours ago, dmedin said:

(with small read real bodies

My brain isn't working properly any more

[dmedin]

Here's what I'd be looking for if Germany was open right now.  Since it's the weekend, we'll see a different picture when it reopens.

Hourly time frame

 

How it looks on the daily time frame.  RSI and MACD aren't positive yet, they're headed that way though.

Edited October 25, 2020 by dmedin