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I use only 2 MAs as a filter (used the same settings long time) Had some time over and did a backtest buy sell on cross I used a trailing stop and optimized the trailing stop only and for th

JESS ........TWO BARKS FOR BUY     ONE BARK FOR SELL   ???

Apple warns may miss quarterly guidance estimates due to virus impact starts a new pullback in the indices.

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5 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

how long are you planing to stay back on demo this time?

 

I've already fended off the temptation to go straight back into live a couple of times, which is a big improvement.  At least six months I would say.  I'd like to see if I can grow the £5000 demo account to £10,000 first.

I still have no idea what I'm doing, switching views, time frames, moving averages all the time.

Not nearly ready for live yet :)

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1 minute ago, dmedin said:

Six more months Tom, are you looking forward to it 😘

I've already spoken at length about demo, the point being is it's not live, nothing really matters.

Once you've tested your strategy and it's working on demo then the progression is to see if it will work live (are the rules sound and can you stick to them). The progression is part of the learning process, there is no point in spending years and years in the 5th grade repeating the same lessons over and over.

20 trades back test

20 trades demo

20 trades live on min position size .... does it (and you) still work?

if not work out why, make alterations and go back to the start and try again.

 

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I don't know what my plan is yet.  It doesn't look like one set of MAs can be applied across all markets, for example.

Intra-day trading, I don't know what's best.

Bollinger with RSI?  MACD?  Using 200 EMA as a filter?  Going purely off candle patterns and Fib levels?  I have no idea.  

 

 

 

Germany 30_20201023_12.44.png

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6 minutes ago, dmedin said:

I don't know what my plan is yet.  It doesn't look like one set of MAs can be applied across all markets, for example.

Intra-day trading, I don't know what's best.

Bollinger with RSI?  MACD?  Using 200 EMA as a filter?  Going purely off candle patterns and Fib levels?  I have no idea.  

 

TA is less about blindly adhering to some textbook chart formations and more about seeking context.

Trading Composure @TradingComposure

 

Charts do NOT predict prices. No form of TA predicts prices.

Charts suggest the path of least resistance

Charts provide a means to determine the risk of a trade

Charts offer help in timing

Charts offer POSSIBILITIES, not probabilities and certainly not certainties

Peter Brandt  @PeterLBrandt

 

Finding and combing indicators to give entry signals with a positive expectancy for your preferred market and time frame takes experimentation and testing.

 

The Trading Rush videos showed backtests of basic trading plans, below is more about building your own.

https://nononsensetrader.com/how-to-backtest/

 

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This is a somewhat funny story. About a year ago I saw a review of an automated trading system which I downloaded from a Russian website which has hundreds of pirated systems. The trading system was simply optimized moving averages with a buy the dip strategy and retailed at over $1,000 when it was launched.

Anyway the reviewer would scan a number of instruments assessing the market structure and then select those instruments where the automated system would “work”. He gave the system a four star rating because it had a 80% win rate. But the “success” of the system was entirely through the expertise of the reviewer in assessing the market structure of the instruments.

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46 minutes ago, dmedin said:

I'm not sure I like any indicators.  Volume maybe?

https://nononsensetrader.com/how-to-backtest/ has custom indicators for MT4, so I don't know what those are.

I'm not even very fond of moving averages any more.

Just Fibs, candle and the RSI?

Made money shorting Wall Street here.

missing the point, doesn't matter what indicators you choose, if a macd crossover aligning with a new moon shows a positive expectancy on testing then great.

ps, if you are on demo you are not making any money.

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6 minutes ago, dmedin said:

The more I keep thinking about trading, the less I know.

It's a downhill process every single day.  I am totally clueless now, but I was full of ideas this morning.

Who knows?

"Markets are there to keep us humble." K. Foulathi

think what you describe is exactly what he meant...

personally, I'm at the stage of drawing funny oval shapes on my charts - maybe this way I'll notice something, some day...:

619378847_USTech100_20201023_11.19(1).thumb.png.9432f94d03ed1e838eb080ed886201c8.png

 

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MACD and RSI are saying the same thing (MACD crosses below signal and RSI drops below 50)

What's really useful here though are those Fibonacci levels.  (Except when they aren't, like where the big horizontal oval shape is)

 

Wall Street_20201024_03.52.png

toots.jpg

Edited by dmedin
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So that's a bearish candle, after an up move that's running out of steam (with small read bodies and long legs), falling back down towards established Fibonacci levels, with a MACD crossing from above 0 and RSI below 50

 

Wall Street_20201024_03.59.png

 

At one point I had the RSI set to 9, and that additionally gives an overbought divergence (price goes higher but RSI doesn't).  This also gives a nice oversold indication when the move down is coming to an end

 

Wall Street_20201024_04.02.png

Edited by dmedin
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Here's what I'd be looking for if Germany was open right now.  Since it's the weekend, we'll see a different picture when it reopens.

Hourly time frame

HltOoguc

 

How it looks on the daily time frame.  RSI and MACD aren't positive yet, they're headed that way though.

lSYrmfOD

Edited by dmedin
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