Is spread betting for fools?

[nit2wynit]

6 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

There was a strong bullish open with a test and acceptance of support at 682 so need to be a bit cautious shorting, the H1 chart looks to be the give away one with the last candle (10am) an inside pause, the next candle could be either a continuation up candle or a reversal candle. A close of this 11 am candle below the 9am candle would seem to signal the reversal scenario was in play.

Thanks.  and as a trade, where would the Buy'Sell position be?  Or am i doing it wrong again by anticipating the direction?  Am i too early?  I thought myself it could go either way, but what signals are there if any?

Recent news being Top Millionaire Bankers are being brought in to crate a Super Team.

What Time frame should I be considering when looking to Place?

Edited July 22, 2019 by nit2wynit

[Caseynotes]

1 minute ago, nit2wynit said:

Thanks.  and as a trade, where would the Buy'Sell position be?  Or am i doing it wrong again by anticipating the direction?  Am i too early?

What Time frame should I be considering when looking to Place?

you are anticipating this pullback to roll over, wait to see if it does.

two ways to play it but the H1 chart looks key so you could play it straight off that, so a close below 696 and entry on the 12pm bar continuation down or switch to the lower time frame and wait for a pullback to enter short.

This 11am bar is crucial, after an inside bar the next bar should be directional, either continuation up or reversal back down, don't really want to see continued uncertainty with another pause bar but it's looking like that may happen, see if someone steps in in the last 15 min.

 

[nit2wynit]

Is this proof why I keep failing?  Am I getting in too early before a clear direction is proven?
Regardless of the direction on this one, it was necessary to prove what I keep doing wrong.  Guessing instead of following.  This will be the last time I enter a trade until the direction is clear.  possibly another £6 lesson.

[Caseynotes]

3 minutes ago, nit2wynit said:

Is this proof why I keep failing?  Am I getting in too early before a clear direction is proven?
Regardless of the direction on this one, it was necessary to prove what I keep doing wrong.  Guessing instead of following.  This will be the last time I enter a trade until the direction is clear.  possibly another £6 lesson.

yes, the H1 chart players halted the 11am bar going down further right at the 9am bar close level, they stepped in to prevent a reversal pattern showing up indicating they are still in control of price.

The stop is fine because if hit the idea behind the trade would be invalidated, but the entry was before it was clear the bears were actually in the driving seat.

[WallStFoxy]

1 hour ago, nit2wynit said:

How's this for a Trade Idea folks.?  Back to DB.

@nit2wynit

Just a different prospective. 👿 

[nit2wynit]

6 minutes ago, Foxy said:

@nit2wynit

Just a different prospective. 👿 

Yes it was always possible.  The recent News suggests a big shakeup.  Could provide enough to drive it back up.

Seems it's going now.  There's my £6 quid gone.. Pooof


I think for me with DB is I had no faith in a recovery.  Looking at the Weekly, it's the lowest it's ever been; relatively.

Since the big drop last week I figured it was numbered.  I expected it to drop back to 580.  

I seem obsessed with Drops :O

Maybe it can turn around.

Edited July 22, 2019 by nit2wynit

[Caseynotes]

 

35 minutes ago, nit2wynit said:

Am I getting in too early before a clear direction is proven?

there is always a case for either direction so look at structure, decide on probabilities then decide what you need to see to validate the decision before entry. The mistake wasn't the call, it was not waiting for validation.  

the 11am turned out to be another pause bar so with the entry too early are stuck in a 50/50 situation when you really need probability on your side.

 

Edited July 22, 2019 by Caseynotes

[nit2wynit]

Well, I got it wrong.  what would normally happen now is I'd let it Fail, then assume it's going the other way, for it to be Fake then drop lol.  Then I'd end up chasing it............

Maybe I'll leave this one and walk away.  I think I'll wait to see if there is a big drop and find a way to go Long instead.


i know you're not supposed to move your stops, but would it be wise to move up up to 709?  This is a £10 Stop for me.  10points.  Let it Fail or Add?  Just advice.  I won't shoot you if you're wrong lol

 

Edited July 22, 2019 by nit2wynit

[nit2wynit]

Hmmm, I moved my Stop to see where it would end up now i can't move it back down.  Is this right?  

I suppose it's the 6pt minimum.?

Edited July 22, 2019 by nit2wynit

[Caseynotes]

2 minutes ago, nit2wynit said:

Hmmm, I moved my Stop to see where it would end up now i can't move it back down.  Is this right?  

I suppose it's the 6pt minimum.?

yeah, probably.

[Caseynotes]

10 minutes ago, nit2wynit said:

i know you're not supposed to move your stops, but would it be wise to move up up to 709?  This is a £10 Stop for me.  10points.  Let it Fail or Add?  Just advice.  I won't shoot you if you're wrong lol

no, for the reason I gave concerning the stop previously, you might get away with this time but one day you will be really really sorry.

[nit2wynit]

I've proven my point to myself.  I got out for -£2.80  I don't care which way it goes.  It was a lesson to myself.

Stop buying into Consolidation areas!

Stop buying Slow moving Instruments.

[Caseynotes]

12 minutes ago, nit2wynit said:

I've proven my point to myself.  I got out for -£2.80  I don't care which way it goes.  It was a lesson to myself.

Stop buying into Consolidation areas!

Stop buying Slow moving Instruments.

your original stop level was in a reasonable place in relation to the trade idea and hasn't been hit as yet, so lessons from this one trade so far are;

not to get in too early

not to get out too early

wait for validation of the trade idea

be wary of consolidation especially on the lower time frames.

Edited July 22, 2019 by Caseynotes

[nit2wynit]

the fucker looks like it's going down lol

[nit2wynit]

2 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

your original stop level was in a reasonable place in relation to the trade idea and hasn't been hit as yet, so lessons from this one trade so far are;

but my Stop changed to 10-points when I moved the slider and couldn't put it back.  I didn't know that could happen.  I knew i'd end up chasing the Stop if it kept going up to previous High.

Smarter move was to get out.

[WallStFoxy]

9 minutes ago, nit2wynit said:

the fucker looks like it's going down lol

@nit2wynit

Just read the chart simple support, resistance and pivot levels should tell a story. 👿

 

[Caseynotes]

8 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

your original stop level was in a reasonable place in relation to the trade idea and hasn't been hit as yet, so lessons from this one trade so far are;

not to get in too early

not to get out too early

wait for validation of the trade idea

be wary of consolidation especially on the lower time frames.

Additional:

5/ don't move my stop unless it's to lock in profit.

6/ remember that spread and min stop values are variable.

7/ Let the trade play out, avoid trying to micro manage during the trade.

to be continued ... 

[nit2wynit]

1 minute ago, Foxy said:

Just read the chart simple support, resistance and pivot levels should tell a story. 👿

I've only just discovered the Pivot Point s  though they're clearly Support Resistance lines they are very useful already.

Would you trade this going Long? if where from where?

 

Thanks

[WallStFoxy]

1 hour ago, Foxy said:

@nit2wynit

Just a different prospective. 👿 

@nit2wynit

I already answered that. 👿

[nit2wynit]

2 minutes ago, Foxy said:

I already answered that. 👿

Sorry, I was reiterating.  

are you actually trading it?

[nit2wynit]

14 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

to be continued ... 

Hopefully I've finally clicked.  

According to the Vids you suggested, the Conservative Stop was at 10pts or previous High.  I've always just kept them as close as possible to my point of entry.  A good point for me to learn was the moving of the Stop.  It's not something I've really done before as I've always placed at Reversal points, they've either failed or gone the right way.

It's also important for me to remember not to go back to a trade I've just left.

As much as I may be down, £300 was in the first day chasing a Reversal on Gold.  £250 in the same Day.....Chasing Gold.  All of my losses are usually on the same Instrument as I chase an Idea that comes eventually. lol  So in perspective. of the 1k down since March, about £600 of that is in 2 days.  The other £400 took about 4 weeks.

My main lesson that has finally sunk in, is:

Use the 1hr to plot SR points and 1minute to fine tune the point of entry.  Don't get in till the Trend is revealed.

1m chart is noise.  Wow, i get it now.  Yeah you can find patterns everywhere, but I've been waiting for the realisation that True patterns are over hours, not minutes.

Let's hope some success can come from it.

Edited July 22, 2019 by nit2wynit

[WallStFoxy]

2 minutes ago, nit2wynit said:

Sorry, I was reiterating.  

are you actually trading it?

@nit2wynit

No I trade the Dow or the Dax because you get bigger moves and a lower spread. 👿

[nit2wynit]

3 minutes ago, Foxy said:

No I trade the Dow or the Dax because you get bigger moves and a lower spread. 👿

Am i wrong in my assumption about Indicies:  They're so Random they cannot be Predicted?  

I've always assumed they are based on so many factors they don't follow normal pattern rules?

When trading the FTSE i'd get in an out asap as I had no faith in the direction.

[WallStFoxy]

1 minute ago, nit2wynit said:

Am i wrong in my assumption about Indicies:  They're so Random they cannot be Predicted?  

I've always assumed they are based on so many factors they don't follow normal pattern rules?

When trading the FTSE i'd get in an out asap as I had no faith in the direction.

@nit2wynits

I would say so, but you need to study how they move. Its about yesterdays close and overnight highs and lows that very often get tested before they move. The patterns repeat over and over. All that you have learned about candle patterns is not that useful to me. I just use moving average support, resistance and pivot and time of day. 👿

[nit2wynit]

I've got to get back to my video's today, but if anyone can shed some light on how this translates.

[Caseynotes]

11 minutes ago, nit2wynit said:

I've got to get back to my video's today, but if anyone can shed some light on how this translates.

Awesome is a momentum indicator and is going to have some lag, the green AW bar is just saying that the downward momentum has eased compared to the previous bar so it's belatedly picked up on the 2 green chart bars detracting from the overall down momentum, another chart red bar or two will see the AW change back to red.

https://www.tradingview.com/wiki/Awesome_Oscillator_(AO)

[nit2wynit]

Ahhh well.  It may have gone the right way, but it was still wrong to get in so early.  And wrong again to get out so early too, but i was prepared for this.

i won't touch this now as it's 50/50 for £6.

 

Edited July 22, 2019 by nit2wynit

[nit2wynit]

While i've been distracted i missed this drop...

 

[nit2wynit]

I was actually in going Short at 1554, but got out right away as i lost my nerve.  I'm also not supposed to be Trading today.  Made £0.60, lost out on £9 :O

[nit2wynit]

A recap for anyone still interested.  I've had 4 trade ideas today.

Brent Crude, German 30, Russell 2000 and DB.

All gone the way I expected.  Placed no trades, lost nothing (except the £2-80 early get out on DB, gained nothing except knowledge and affirmation, oh and 60p back.  Done for today.

Thank you all for your advice people.  Live to trade another day.