Trade Planning and Testing

[dmedin]

It's all bullsh!t.

Edited September 13, 2020 by dmedin

[dmedin]

22 hours ago, Caseynotes said:

'Why Is Day Trading Futures Not Simple'

 

Or, how to make money stating the bleeding obvious to desperate, gullible retail punters.

[HMB]

On 12/09/2020 at 05:32, Caseynotes said:

Very good mentoring video from the prop trading firm Axia Futures goes through a trade planning the entry, stop and target conditions on the chart then follows price on the ladder and after the trigger covers in-trade management.

(20 min)

'Why Is Day Trading Futures Not Simple'

 

Thanks a lot - think the high level trading plan template shown at the beginning is very useful.  In particular for an approach focused on price/volume action, for which it's harder (IMHO) to precisely specify criteria than for strategies which use certain oscillator levels or moving average crossovers.  Personally I would define "what needs to change" broadly - in the sense that significant time having passed without apparent change might tell you something as well - I think that's a general point oscillators and moving average crossovers can miss at times (see examples on longer time frames below).  Also like how he uses some "softer" (less easy to quantify/formulate) characteristics (e.g. pick up in velocity, target zones instead of levels, action around significant prices), classifies what's going on ("liquidation move") and kinda builds a narrative around the price action.  The "mental rotation" point is great as well.

Must agree with dmedin regarding the the title of the video, though...

 

[dmedin]

Give up.  You won't make money, nobody does.

[dmedin]

21 hours ago, HMB said:

Thanks a lot - think the high level trading plan template shown at the beginning is very useful.  In particular for an approach focused on price/volume action, for which it's harder (IMHO) to precisely specify criteria than for strategies which use certain oscillator levels or moving average crossovers.  Personally I would define "what needs to change" broadly - in the sense that significant time having passed without apparent change might tell you something as well - I think that's a general point oscillators and moving average crossovers can miss at times (see examples on longer time frames below).  Also like how he uses some "softer" (less easy to quantify/formulate) characteristics (e.g. pick up in velocity, target zones instead of levels, action around significant prices), classifies what's going on ("liquidation move") and kinda builds a narrative around the price action.  The "mental rotation" point is great as well.

 

This is all complete bullsh!t, there is always 'some other thing' that the 'experts' can pull out of their 4ss to justify their theories.  

You make money when the market trends, by following the f*king trend.  The problem is that the market does not trend most of the time.

Any w@nker in a suit talking about fancy theories is just another snake oil salesman.

Very few 'professional traders' can even beat buy and hold the S&P 500.

 

Edited September 14, 2020 by dmedin

[Caseynotes]

Probability of Failure and actual Impact of Failure.

There should be a bag of gold above to represent reward as the opposite to risk, so a small bag of gold for low impact reward and a large bag of gold for high impact reward.

 

A few traders are successful taking low probability of success but high reward trades.

Most traders fail because they are mesmerized looking at the large bag of gold and walk into the pit of spikes.

Most successful traders just churn high probability of success low reward trades over and over.

 

New traders look at a chart and the goal is clear, you need to predict the turning points, shouldn't be too difficult. But after spending ages stabbing at the entry button and watching their account disappear they stop to reassess.

There are some traders who make a living picking major reversals but they don't tend to be beginners. They have a planned entry level based on previous price action and they enter with small size and a tight stop because they know they will be wrong 70% of the time. If the trade takes off they are looking to continually add and run the trade for as long as possible and that takes skills a new trader just doesn't have.

So what's to do? Take a look at the other end, the high probability of success but low impact trades.

This is likely to be a way into an already established trend and it's likely to involve a pullback failure or a breakout continuation.

We need to identify a repeating pattern setup that has a high probability to go some distance in the expected direction.

Most new traders want to run every trade up to the moon but end up watching it fall back and they're scrambling to get out at break even or a loss. The key that makes it a high probability trade is the expected impact (reward), less impact equals higher probability. So like a swing trader just looking for a swing back up to the prior high/low you need to see what your market on your time frame can realistically be expected to offer on a repeat basis and on a intraday chart that might be just 10 points per setup.

It doesn't matter how many points, if your plan works repeatedly then position size is the key not points gain.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[dmedin]

'Successful proprietary firm trader gives free advice to retail punters out of the goodness of his heart.'

Yep, sounds credible.

[HMB]

31 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

Probability of Failure and actual Impact of Failure.

There should be a bag of gold above to represent reward as the opposite to risk, so a small bag of gold for low impact reward and a large bag of gold for high impact reward.

 

A few traders are successful taking low probability of success but high reward trades.

Most traders fail because they are mesmerized looking at the large bag of gold and walk into the pit of spikes.

Most successful traders just churn high probability of success low reward trades over and over.

 

New traders look at a chart and the goal is clear, you need to predict the turning points, shouldn't be too difficult. But after spending ages stabbing at the entry button and watching their account disappear they stop to reassess.

There are some traders who make a living picking major reversals but they don't tend to be beginners. They have a planned entry level based on previous price action and they enter with small size and a tight stop because they know they will be wrong 70% of the time. If the trade takes off they are looking to continually add and run the trade for as long as possible and that takes skills a new trader just doesn't have.

So what's to do? Take a look at the other end, the high probability of success but low impact trades.

This is likely to be a way into an already established trend and it's likely to involve a pullback failure or a breakout continuation.

We need to identify a repeating pattern setup that has a high probability to go some distance in the expected direction.

Most new traders want to run every trade up to the moon but end up watching it fall back and they're scrambling to get out at break even or a loss. The key that makes it a high probability trade is the expected impact (reward), less impact equals higher probability. So like a swing trader just looking for a swing back up to the prior high/low you need to see what your market on your time frame can realistically be expected to offer on a repeat basis and on a intraday chart that might be just 10 points per setup.

It doesn't matter how many points, if your plan works repeatedly then position size is the key not points gain.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

good points

[HMB]

1 hour ago, dmedin said:

Give up.  You won't make money, nobody does.

considering this.

[dmedin]

15 minutes ago, HMB said:

considering this.

 

If I could go back in time and speak to myself in late 2018, I would tell myself forcefully not to go down this road and stick to putting money into the S&P 500 ETF instead.  Over the last two years I would have made great returns instead of a loss.

Trading is a hopeless situation, and you just need to look at all the contradictory bullsh!t and rationalizations to see that other people on this forum are hopelessly deluded.

[HMB]

5 minutes ago, dmedin said:

If I could go back in time and speak to myself in late 2018, I would tell myself forcefully not to go down this road and stick to putting money into the S&P 500 ETF instead. 

And why do you continue now?

[dmedin]

19 minutes ago, HMB said:

And why do you continue now?

I've built a habit over the last two years.  At the expense of learning to do something productive and useful.  And, since it is a habit, it's hard to 'kick'.

It's really f*king grim.

[jlz]

11 minutes ago, dmedin said:

I've built a habit over the last two years.  At the expense of learning to do something productive and useful.  And, since it is a habit, it's hard to 'kick'.

It's really f*king grim.

That's quite sad. I think you are talking about an addiction there.

[HMB]

20 minutes ago, dmedin said:

I've built a habit over the last two years.  At the expense of learning to do something productive and useful.  And, since it is a habit, it's hard to 'kick'.

It's really f*king grim.

Obviously I haven't found a way that worked for me to solve this, yet, - but over the last few days started trying two things, which so far seem to help me, personally:

 - allocate a percentage of the time one spend's on the markets to something else that seems very difficult to achieve - e.g. learning Japanese or Python or stochastic calculus, or write a novel or a screenplay

 - look at trading as a sport, a hobby, a form of entertainment, not a way to earn a living

 

(but maybe you're doing similar things already - apologies for the bother, if)

 

Edited September 14, 2020 by HMB

[dmedin]

48 minutes ago, jlz said:

That's quite sad. I think you are talking about an addiction there.

 

Yeah, you'd think spread betting was a form of gambling 😉 

[dmedin]

50 minutes ago, jlz said:

That's quite sad. I think you are talking about an addiction there.

 

You're sorted though aren't you, you have programmed the perfect algo - you don't even need to look at charts.

You just sit back and let the money roll in.

I'm sure everybody can do the same if they just keep reading all of Caseynotes' posts  

Edited September 14, 2020 by dmedin

[jlz]

37 minutes ago, dmedin said:

 

You're sorted though aren't you, you have programmed the perfect algo - you don't even need to look at charts.

You just sit back and let the money roll in.

I'm sure everybody can do the same if they just keep reading all of Caseynotes' posts  

No one needs to look at charts to trade, not to mention useless indicators.

I am not "sorted" but I don't loose that often anymore, so there it is, an achievement for me.

Since this thread is about planing and testing it should focus on building a plan and finding a way to test it.

I can test it, if it doesn't include any chart or any fancy indicator I am in. Even I could bring some risk management that I know it works. So what is the plan? Do we discuss one or we keep looking at useless charts?

[dmedin]

7 minutes ago, jlz said:

No one needs to look at charts to trade, not to mention useless indicators.

I am not "sorted" but I don't loose that often anymore, so there it is, an achievement for me.

Since this thread is about planing and testing it should focus on building a plan and finding a way to test it.

I can test it, if it doesn't include any chart or any fancy indicator I am in. Even I could bring some risk management that I know it works. So what is the plan? Do we discuss one or we keep looking at useless charts?

 

lol this is all just such nonsense.

Carry on guys ...

[jlz]

28 minutes ago, dmedin said:

 

lol this is all just such nonsense.

Carry on guys ...

Nonsense can be proved , attached is a video of my trading analytics for this year. Yeah, the one with the massive drop in February. Would you share yours? Then we can insult each other as much as we want.

[dmedin]

59 minutes ago, jlz said:

Nonsense can be proved , attached is a video of my trading analytics for this year. Yeah, the one with the massive drop in February. Would you share yours? Then we can insult each other as much as we want.

 

Neither you nor Caseynotes share anything of value to anyone here.

Caseynotes has been here how long?  And he has probably never helped a single person turn around and become profitable.

I've tried my best and lost money, just like 99% of everyone who gets sucked into this waste of time.

If the pair of you want to hang around here to brag about the size of your w!llies that's fine.  But why do you do it?  Is effortlessly making money not enough for you?

Edited September 14, 2020 by dmedin

[jlz]

16 minutes ago, dmedin said:

 

Neither you nor Caseynotes share anything of value to anyone here.

Caseynotes has been here how long?  And he has probably never helped a single person turn around and become profitable.

I've tried my best and lost money, just like 99% of everyone who gets sucked into this waste of time.

If the pair of you want to hang around here to brag about the size of your w!llies that's fine.  But why do you do it?  Is effortlessly making money not enough for you?

I am not sure why you are including Caseynotes in this conversation, this is between you and me. 

I am just replying to you proving that I can build a plan and make it to work, you insult me instead of listening. Now you can't reply with a video, just empty words. I am helping anyone that ask for help, you will see that many times in many posts. I am not bragging about my achievements, just sent the video to prove that I can make it to work.
Why do I want to help people? Because I come from a working class background and everything I have is out my personal time and work, so helping others is what we do. I believe  that will come back to me eventually. Call it karma, religious believes or whatever you think it is.  But if you are going say that I am full of sh*t I will reply and make you look like the big mouthy c*nt. Simple as that.

Edited September 14, 2020 by jlz

[dmedin]

6 minutes ago, jlz said:

I am not sure why you are including Caseynotes in this conversation, this is between you and me. 

I am just replying to you proving that I can build a plan and make it to work, you insult me instead of listening. Now you can't reply with a video, just empty words. I am helping anyone that ask for help, you will see that many times in many posts. I am not bragging about my achievements, just sent the video to prove that I can make it to work.
Why do I want to help people? Because I come from a working class background and everything I have is out my personal time and work, so helping others is what we do. I believe  that will come back to me eventually. Call it karma, religious believes or whatever you think it is.  But if you are going say that I am full of sh*t I will reply and make you look like the big mouthy c*nt. Simple as that.

 

The one thing all of you have in common is that you're bullsh!t merchants.

Retail traders don't make money from trading.

[AndrewS]

18 minutes ago, dmedin said:

 

Neither you nor Caseynotes share anything of value to anyone here.

Caseynotes has been here how long?  And he has probably never helped a single person turn around and become profitable.

I've tried my best and lost money, just like 99% of everyone who gets sucked into this waste of time.

If the pair of you want to hang around here to brag about the size of your w!llies that's fine.  But why do you do it?  Is effortlessly making money not enough for you?

Well, the OP states that there are different types of traders, and I do think a person has to find what works for them in practice. For me the “Dow & Dax” thread Caseynotes started was a bit of a gold mine.

The last 30 days. There can be consistency from discretionary trading with charts.

 

 

Finally the challenge was “Would you share yours? Then we can insult each other as much as we want.”, but I noticed that you skipped a step before launching into insult again…

[jlz]

Just now, AndrewS said:

Well, the OP states that there are different types of traders, and I do think a person has to find what works for them in practice. For me the “Dow & Dax” thread Caseynotes started was a bit of a gold mine.

The last 30 days. There can be consistency from discretionary trading with charts.

 

 

Finally the challenge was “Would you share yours? Then we can insult each other as much as we want.”, but I noticed that you skipped a step before launching into insult again…

show the full year boy, don't select a nice time when you were lucky.

[THT]

30 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Neither you nor Caseynotes share anything of value to anyone here.

Caseynotes has been here how long?  And he has probably never helped a single person turn around and become profitable.

I've tried my best and lost money, just like 99% of everyone who gets sucked into this waste of time.

If the pair of you want to hang around here to brag about the size of your w!llies that's fine.  But why do you do it?  Is effortlessly making money not enough for you?

I was prepared to help but your attitude is just horrible

[THT]

11 minutes ago, dmedin said:

 

The one thing all of you have in common is that you're bullsh!t merchants.

Retail traders don't make money from trading.

they can - there is over 100% of trade able profits on EVERY market EVERY year

You're just not looking at charts correctly

[THT]

11 minutes ago, jlz said:

show the full year boy, don't select a nice time when you were lucky.

I'll do mine next June so we have a full years to declare

[jlz]

7 minutes ago, THT said:

I'll do mine next June so we have a full years to declare

@dmedin Here you have a person that could help you to get out of that hole where you think you are.

THT has many years of experience in financial services as well as very detailed posts of how to trade, how to handle risk, how to test and how to look at charts.

What is your response? A mouth full of insults. Really? 

Edited September 14, 2020 by jlz

[dmedin]

Just add trading to the list of things I'm sh!t at.

Nearing middle age, and I can't do anything right.

What a f*king sh!t for brains.

Well, not much left for it now

[AndrewS]

32 minutes ago, jlz said:

show the full year boy, don't select a nice time when you were lucky.

Fair enough, you beat me.