Covid and the Economy

[dmedin]

4 hours ago, Caseynotes said:

South Korea and Japan are winning

Deep cultural differences ...

 

[Caseynotes]

13 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Deep cultural differences ...

 

the point is you can't quarantine an entire population, only sub sections. People won't sit indoors and starve to death so you have to let them out to shop so don't then really have a quarantine at all. Look at Belgium in the FT graph above, started quarantine very early on and it made no difference whatsoever.

Cultural differences;

[Caseynotes]

80 patients treated with hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin, clinical improvement in all but 1 who died, 97% of the 80 were virus negative by day 5.

https://www.mediterranee-infection.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/COVID-IHU-2-1.pdf?fbclid=IwAR0mQGCxBJ2Xy7vkI-0gAHQ6leJuFzj-Bvx--SY0WoIBzKgp9cjViKBMsZ4

[Caseynotes]

 

3 hours ago, Caseynotes said:

80 patients treated with hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin, clinical improvement in all but 1 who died, 97% of the 80 were virus negative by day 5.

https://www.mediterranee-infection.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/COVID-IHU-2-1.pdf?fbclid=IwAR0mQGCxBJ2Xy7vkI-0gAHQ6leJuFzj-Bvx--SY0WoIBzKgp9cjViKBMsZ4

"BREAKING: French government reverses earlier ban on hydroxychloroquine for treating COVID19 patients in light of successful clinical studies showing significant efficacy against the virus. Hydroxychloroquine may now be prescribed to treat COVID-19 in France."

[Caseynotes]

8 hours ago, ha05230 said:

“In France, the government caved to pressure from a doctor who ran his own very small and rapid trial of the drug combined with an antibiotic in 26 people, using methodology that has been seriously criticised. Dr Didier Raoult, a professor of infectious diseases who works at La Timone hospital in Marseille, then declared in a video on YouTube that chloroquine was a cure for Covid-19 and should be used immediately.“

You can hardly call a trial with 26 people statistically significant considering 660k confirmed cases worldwide thus far and 30k deaths.

actually I was referring to Didier Raoult's trial of 80 people (link posted previously) which is still not many but added to the US trials which give similar findings I suspect most would rather give it a go when the alternative is death.

yes, the danger is drowning in your own secretions during the pneumonia stage of the illness. In countries with wide spread testing only 1% of confirmed cases enter this stage, 99% of confirmed cases are either asymptomatic or classified as mild with normal cold or flu symptoms. Also, the 1% are almost exclusively in the over 70s age group. So hydroxychloroquine is treating the affects of the pneumonia rather than the corona virus itself.

There is still massive differences in the reporting of cases between different countries, it's just been revealed the German corona death rates are much lower because they count only if the death is actually by corona and not deaths of patients with corona.

Italy remains in a class of it's own, though as below, have a history of large scale death rates amongst the elderly in previous years that seem to have gone largely unnoticed.

[Caseynotes]

KUNGFLU 😉

The UK govt is telling us this morning that the total lockdown could well last into summer, great. In the US meanwhile the govt is thinking along the lines of isolating hotspots and allowing the rest of the country to get on about it's business, unfortunately the biggest hotspot is New York City which accounts for over half of all US confirmed cases.

[Caseynotes]

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52076293

https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2020/03/29/sweden-cafes-restaurants-etc-remain-open-gatheringsf-50-allowed/

[Caseynotes]

First Squawk @FirstSquawk

20m

CORONAVIRUS UPDATE: FRANCE, 1003 PATIENTS TREATED AT IHU MARSEILLE WITH THE HYDROXYCHLOROQUINE-AZITHROMYCIN

[Caseynotes]

"The Food and Drug Administration on Sunday issued an emergency use authorization for hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine, decades-old malaria drugs championed by President Donald Trump for coronavirus treatment despite scant evidence."

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/29/fda-emergency-authorization-anti-malaria-drug-155095

[Caseynotes]

Corona (so far) vs regular flu average deaths/year US.

[Bopperz]

I am very much looking forward to crunching the data on this in a year or two when we have a clearer picture.

[Caseynotes]

4 minutes ago, Bopperz said:

I am very much looking forward to crunching the data on this in a year or two when we have a clearer picture.

I'm looking to Sweden who have done the opposite of everyone else and have only locked down the vulnerable (the over 70s) and not the whole population and business. Should be interesting.

[dmedin]

8 minutes ago, Bopperz said:

I am very much looking forward to crunching the data on this in a year or two when we have a clearer picture.

 

All of us should consider ourselves lucky if we can survive that long.  😮

Edited March 30, 2020 by dmedin

[dmedin]

1 minute ago, Caseynotes said:

have only locked down the vulnerable (the over 70s)

Logan's Run

[Caseynotes]

1 minute ago, dmedin said:

 

All of us should consider ourselves lucky if we can survive that long.  😮

all the data from countries with extensive testing shows that 99% of confirmed cases don't get pneumonia (which is responsible for the deaths) and so only exhibit normal flu like symptoms if any at all.

[Bopperz]

6 minutes ago, dmedin said:

 

All of us should consider ourselves lucky if we can survive that long.  😮

It's okey, I intend on surviving.

Dying does not feature in my trading plan, and I only follow the plan!

[Caseynotes]

Place your bets; number of deaths by cause in the US so far this year;

RTAs = road traffic accidents.

CHF = chronic heart failure

[Bopperz]

2 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

Place your bets; number of deaths by cause in the US so far this year;

RTAs = road traffic accidents.

CHF = chronic heart failure

Was about to ask about CHF, those pesky Swiss!

[andysinclair]

25 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

all the data from countries with extensive testing shows that 99% of confirmed cases don't get pneumonia (which is responsible for the deaths) and so only exhibit normal flu like symptoms if any at all.

Not sure where that stat comes from....from the WHO website: 

• 20% of cases need hospital treatment.
• Around 1 out of every 6 people who gets COVID-19 becomes seriously ill and develops difficulty breathing. 

Also nobody is sure about the long term effects of having the virus, i.e. lung damage etc.
 

[Caseynotes]

5 minutes ago, andysinclair said:

Not sure where that stat comes from....from the WHO website: 

• 20% of cases need hospital treatment.
• Around 1 out of every 6 people who gets COVID-19 becomes seriously ill and develops difficulty breathing. 

Also nobody is sure about the long term effects of having the virus, i.e. lung damage etc.
 

as stated earlier, if you are only testing people arriving at hospital in an ambulance you will have very few confirmed cases to match against the number of deaths so will have a very high death rate. Countries that do extensive community testing have far better data and a far larger number of confirmed cases such as South Korea, the data for which I posted earlier in this thread, see below.

Quite frankly the WHO have lost all credibility during this pandemic and have been so far behind the curve as to have been utterly useless. 

 

 

 

[Caseynotes]

Old jug ears comes out of self isolation a week after testing positive to coronavirus you will all be much relieved to know.

https://www.lbcnews.co.uk/uk-news/prince-charles-comes-out-of-self-isolation-after-c/

[Caseynotes]

Haha,

 

Kevin Schofield  @PolhomeEditor

4m

 

PM's spokesman: "If a shop is allowed to remain open it will sell whatever items it has in stock.” Police being told by No10 to wind their neck in a bit.

 

 

BBC News (UK)  @BBCNews

 

Small shops told Easter eggs are non-essential goods by police and local councils, trade body says bbc.in/2WQ5B0Z

[Bopperz]

16 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

Old jug ears comes out of self isolation a week after testing positive to coronavirus you will all be much relieved to know.

https://www.lbcnews.co.uk/uk-news/prince-charles-comes-out-of-self-isolation-after-c/

If a 70 year old can actually have the virus, recover and be back to work in 7 days.

Maybe the police could go visit some of our bin men/posties/tube drivers who seem to have a 30% sickness rate.....

[Caseynotes]

yes please, immunity test kits, if you have corona antibodies you will be allowed to leave lockdown. If you have had flu this winter you may well pass this test but even if not you may have had corona and been asymptomatic.

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-germany-covid-19-immunity-certificates-testing-social-distancing-lockdown-2020-3?utmSource=twitter&utmContent=referral&utmTerm=topbar&referrer=twitter&r=US&IR=T

 

[andysinclair]

Thought I would spend some time looking at the actual stats (from UK Government websites only) for UK flu versus COVID-19.

The official stats for flu are 312 deaths and 3,157 hospital admissions for the 2018/2019 flu season (over 6 months).

For COVID-19 there are today 9,000 patients in hospital beds and there were 159 deaths yesterday.

There are currently approx. 140,000 hospital beds in the UK and at any one time approx. 10% are empty.

Plotting these figures in Excel produces the charts below (I have used yesterdays COVID-19 death figure as an average is not yet available versus an average day during the flu season):

[Caseynotes]

10 minutes ago, andysinclair said:

Thought I would spend some time looking at the actual stats (from UK Government websites only) for UK flu versus COVID-19.

The official stats for flu are 312 deaths and 3,157 hospital admissions for the 2018/2019 flu season (over 6 months).

For COVID-19 there are today 9,000 patients in hospital beds and there were 159 deaths yesterday.

There are currently approx. 140,000 hospital beds in the UK and at any one time approx. 10% are empty.

Plotting these figures in Excel produces the charts below (I have used yesterdays COVID-19 death figure as an average is not yet available versus an average day during the flu season):

The deaths per day for the last flu season looks too low but of course many die at home rather than in hospital. In the graph from the NHS below which looks at flu deaths per year from 2014 to 2019 and the dominant strain of flu for each year, deaths per year ranges between 10,000 and 14,000.

[Caseynotes]

The sweepstakes, Sweden is now in the field and the one to watch having no lockdown or business closures, just isolate the vulnerable and carry on as normal till it all blows over. 

[dmedin]

 

[Bopperz]

On 30/03/2020 at 15:22, Caseynotes said:

yes please, immunity test kits, if you have corona antibodies you will be allowed to leave lockdown. If you have had flu this winter you may well pass this test but even if not you may have had corona and been asymptomatic.

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-germany-covid-19-immunity-certificates-testing-social-distancing-lockdown-2020-3?utmSource=twitter&utmContent=referral&utmTerm=topbar&referrer=twitter&r=US&IR=T

 

Hands up who is keen to get the virus sooner, and get out of lockdown!

Also, if you under lockdown, how are you going to get the virus? Very slowly. You might never escape!

Edited April 1, 2020 by Bopperz

[Bopperz]

19 hours ago, Caseynotes said:

The sweepstakes, Sweden is now in the field and the one to watch having no lockdown or business closures, just isolate the vulnerable and carry on as normal till it all blows over. 

I like these graphs, are they from the FT?

Surly these graphs should be relative to population size though, else China and India are going to have a large death rate!